Introduction

I plan for this new series, Mixing Fantasy and Reality, to examine in detail how real happenings in baseball affect fantasy valuations. I had several projects I have worked on like xBABIP values and velocity differences in which I plan on including. The MASH Report took up quite a bit of my time compiling and tracking all the injuries and I didn’t have time for other outlets. Today marks a new beginning where I have an opportunity to make additional information available. This series will run on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday

I am not going to completely ignore injuries. If a major injury happens or I think one will happen, I will include the information. Additionally, every Thursday I will write a detailed article exclusively on a few in-depth injury topics like my HURT and PAIN reports.

As for future articles, the format will likely be two to four main areas of discussion and maybe some interesting tidbit not found elsewhere. I am not sure if I will have a set topic rotation or if I will just follow the news. For a few articles, I will need to set some ground work to reference in future articles, so don’t expect all the articles to be full of background information like the first few. I hope you enjoy the change and let me know if you have any suggestions.

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Ah, the beauty of the Holds statistic. Up by 3, Jeremy Jeffress gave up two runs in the 8^th and then Sam Dyson blew his third save of the season giving up a run in the 9^th. Jeffress earns a hold (3) and Dyson is stuck with the blown save. I know I’m probably preaching to the choir, but this is one of those glaring statistical injustices it would seem. Either way, the Rangers would come back and win the game as Matt Bush pitched two scoreless innings for the W (5). I guess the real bullpen story of this game falls on the Houston side as Will Harris’ struggles continue after walking a batter and hitting the next. After a stolen base and a fielder’s choice leaving runner’s on second and third, Ken Giles came in and gave up a double to score two runs on Harris’ docket. That’s when things got interesting for Giles who would allow 3 more baserunners over 1.2 innings, while striking out six Rangers. Yes, I know that doesn’t seem to make mathematical sense, but Giles managed to strike out Nomar Mazara on a wild pitch after allowing a Mitch Moreland double. He would then hit Ryan Rua to load the bases. Then Giles settled down and struck out the side. Read the rest of this entry »

No major moves this weekend, so this will be a shorter Bullpen Report, along with a few minor adjustments to the grid.

Steve Cishek was placed on the DL on Thursday, which doesn’t shake up the closer’s role, but does impact who is next in line in Seattle. Both Drew Storen and Tom Wilhelmsen are currently next in line despite having difficult seasons, and probably shouldn’t be owned as insurance. Outside of giving up a run against Boston, Edwin Diaz has looked fantastic as he is closed all four opportunities since being made closer. He has been dominant all season with a ridiculous 17.38 K/9 and 2.48 BB/9, to go with his 1.86 ERA (1.75 FIP). The bridge to Diaz is shaky right now, but could be getting sturdier as Nick Vincent is on a rehab assignment. Vincent struggled with the long ball giving up 1.73 per 9, but has seen a nice boost in his K rate (26.6%) and BB rate (6.1%) from last year. Expect Vincent to move immediately into the chart once he returns from his rehab assignment. The second line will still be wide open and something I’m staying away from.
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• We mentioned Huston Street’s continued struggles yesterday and it looks like he’s found himself on the disabled list with “inflammation in his right knee.” Street has been the worst closer in baseball this year so it was either going to be an injury or demotion that removed him from the closing chair. In his place goes Cam Bedrosian who got his first career save last night striking out the side. On the year Bedrosian has a 0.90/1.88/2.72 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line, a groundball percentage of 50.5% and a 32.5% strikeout rate. Killing worms and missing bats is generally a great way to be successful as a pitcher and I went aggressive making the Angels situation green. Yes, Bedrosian is a first time closer but he’s far and away the best option and I feel his job is secure.

• Will Harris‘ recent struggles also caught up to him as Ken Giles has supplanted him as closer. I opened the door to this possibility last night but the Astros made the change before seeing another blown opportunity by Harris. Luke Gregerson has pitched great as well so I’m slotting him 2nd in line, behind Giles. The Astros paid a pretty penny for Giles last year and he will now earn his keep in the ninth as the Astros fight for the playoffs. Look past Giles’ 3.80 ERA and you will see he’s the same dominant pitcher he was on the Phillies – his strikeout rate is the 11th best among relievers, his K-BB% ranks 12th, and his 97 mph fastball is among the league leaders. With Bedrosian, Edwin Diaz and now Giles added to the ninth inning, along with the usual slate of dominating closers, we are in the midst of some of the most terrifying closers I’ve ever seen.

UPDATE: With Luke Gregerson on the DL that obviously changes things. Harris is second and Michael Feliz will be added to the grid.

• Speaking of Edwin Diaz, the new Seattle closer didn’t disappoint in his first action, pitching around a walk while striking out three batters for his first save of the year. Diaz is now up to 52 strikeouts in 26 innings pitched. You would think after a few years of  Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances that we have seen it all but Diaz is taking it to another level. If anything Diaz has been unlucky in his batted ball profile and I don’t see how the Mariners will rationalize using Cishek again this year barring a collapse – I upgraded them to green.

• Quick hits: Yesterday was a solid day for new closers as Tyler Thornburg pitched a perfect ninth for his 3rd save on the year and Tony Watson secured his first save of the year for Pittsburgh. Zach Britton can’t pitch every day so Darren O’Day filled in getting four outs for his second save. After a brief DL stint he’s certainly back to his old bad self behind Britton. Rough debut for Will Smith in SF as he gave up two runs without finishing the inning. Sergio Romo wasn’t any better allowing three runs of his own. Hunter Strickland and Derek Law threw scoreless innings in the sixth and seventh innings respectively and could leapfrog Romo if he has another blip. Nobody can be perfect and Seung Oh blew a save – his job is still safe. Roberto Osuna had a day off and Jason Grilli pitched a perfect inning for second save, cementing his role as second in line in Toronto. It’s possible that Aaron Sanchez‘ move to the pen could change that but I think Grilli is safe.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

Yesterday was (obviously) deadline day and there was thankfully lots of action. I hope you enjoyed hitting refresh on your Twitter account as much as I did.

• Brewers GM David Stearns was very active, trading two of the three relievers that were rumored in trades in Jeremy Jeffress and Will Smith. Jeremy Jeffress is heading to Texas, and while I don’t think he will supplant Sam Dyson right away I am going to make the Rangers situation yellow, showing some caution. There wasn’t anyone knocking on the door too loudly behind Dyson earlier but now there is Jeffress.

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So many trades did happen, and yet it seems so little was accomplished. We’ll have more in-depth analysis as the days go forward, but I thought I’d do a quick touch on all the trades that have been confirmed so far. There were fantasy implications.

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As expected, the Nationals acquired a big arm for their pen by trading for Mark Melancon. The Nationals traded lefties Felipe Rivero and Taylor Hearn to the Pirates for Melancon, which shakes up two bullpens. Melancon will be the closer in Washington, and Jonathan Papelbon has reportedly handled the news well. Papelbon has struggled in his last three appearances giving up a total of 7 earned runs in 1 inning pitched. August Fagerstrom goes in depth about Melancon, who has been one of the best closers in baseball with a 1.51 ERA (2.66 FIP). The BB% (5.5) is the highest for Melancon since 2012 and Fagerstrom points out it is because hitters are laying off his curveball. Nothing to be of real concern just yet, but might be something to monitor down the road. The grid has Papelbon next in line despite Shawn Kelley having a better year, so that could change as we see more late inning situations. The Pirates will now turn to Tony Watson to close games out, who has also been good this year posting a 2.66 ERA (3.71 FIP). Some areas to look out for are his homeruns are slightly up (0.82 HR/9), and his BB% (8.6) is the highest it has been since 2012. The two years prior he has been elite and outside of a three game stretch in June, has not given up runs in back-to-back games. Neftali Feliz is now next in line for saves, followed by the newly acquired Felipe Rivero. Feliz has the better K rate (29.4%) and BB rate (7.2%) than Watson, but those HR/9 (1.37) are concerning. I’m tempted to keep Pittsburgh at green, but it’s a new closer so we’ll start off a little conservative with yellow. Read the rest of this entry »

Apologies on the delayed Bullpen Report as the current author recovers from ACL surgery. But like Mariano Rivera I’ll be back soon and certainly be more prompt with publishing. On to the bullpens…

• We previously spoke in these parts about Jonathan Papelbon not looking like his old self and of late it looks like the wheels are coming off. Papelbon blew his third save last night after allowing four straight baserunners without recording an out. And this is after allowing four runs in his previous outing. On the season his ERA/FIP/xFIP stands at a very pedestrian 4.18/3.20/4.51. His fastball velocity is a career low at 90.9 mph and although his K/9 is slightly above last year’s mark his swinging strike rate is down. Dusty Baker said that Papelbon is still the closer but considering the Nationals were in Aroldis Chapman rumors before his recent slide, I expect the Nationals to make an upgrade in the pen moving Papelbon from the role.

• Jon Axford got work in the bottom of the ninth last night but there is no change in Oakland as Ryan Madson is still the closer. In days when he’s not available, Melvin will turn to Axford though and I’ve put him second in line on the grid below.

• I think Andrew Miller is pretty good at this relieving thing whether it’s closing or not as he pitched around one hit for his ninth save of the year and his second since Aroldis Chapman was traded. The Yankees brass has still refused to go into “sell” mode so I think Miller’s job is still relatively safe. Also, although he would accept a setup role if traded, Miller would be the best reliever on any team he would be moved to which keeps his chances of getting saves pretty high. Dellin Betances remains the elite setup man in baseball and I would expect Chad Green or Adam Warren to possibly fill in Betances’ old spot. Both pitchers can be starters or long men but I put Green on the grid as he’s been light’s out in relief with a 2.08 FIP in that role. Warren struggled a bit this year for the Cubs so I would expect the Yankees to use him more for multiple innings where he succeeded last year for the Yanks.

• While everyone reloads their Twitter feed for sexy rumors regarding Andrew Miller or Wade Davis, the Blue Jays and Mariners made a small reliever swap with Joaquin Benoit heading to Toronto for Drew Storen. Edwin Diaz and his ridiculous 44.9% stirkeout rate moves behind Cishek with Tom Wilhelmsen stepping onto the grid. Meanwhile in Toronto, Benoit will set up Roberto Osuna along with Jason Grilli. The Mariners are hoping a “change of scenery” helps Storen and if it does, he could find his way back in the fold.

• Jim Johnson isn’t any good but he’s still closing in Atlanta and recorded his third save last night. Chris Withrow actually threw in the eighth inning and has been pretty good of late so I added him to the grid. Johnson may not be long for the ninth for much longer but I sitll have Withrow behind Mauricio Cabrera and his heater.

Rumor Roundup: The Nationals missed on Aroldis but still need an upgrade with Andrew Miller, David Robertson and Wade Davis mentioned. Miller and Davis have reasonable contracts moving forward and should fetch a bigger haul than Aroldis which is probably keeping them from being moved at the moment. Robertson could be had but he’s struggled a bit this year with his worst peripherals of his career and an ERA over 4. The Brewers trifecta of relievers – Will Smith, Jeremy Jeffress and Tyler Thornburg remain on the block as well. One has to also figure the Rays would release Alex Colome once they saw the price tag on Chapman. The Nationals figure to be the main team who could make a move quick but other than that there is no trade on the cusp of being completed.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

Washington is said to be looking to make a move for another major bullpen arm. Wade Davis is one name they are looking at, and Aroldis Chapman is another guy they have inquired about. No deal is imminent at this point, but you may need to start thinking about and potentially acting on the implications of one of these guys going to Washington. Would the Nationals move Papelbon out of the closer’s role? Even though he has posted a 2.64 ERA and 2.94 FIP, it’s hard to argue he deserves a higher leverage role than a Davis or Chapman. Papelbon has a lower HR/FB% (5.3%) and GB% (36.8%) than his career norms, which would concern me as a Papelbon owner. Papelbon is also known to be territorial about his closer’s role, so that is also a scenario to monitor if the Nationals do acquire a big arm for the bullpen. Trading Chapman would move Andrew Miller into the closer’s role, who should be owned in most leagues, whereas Davis’ trade would give Kelvin Herrera a nice hold on the job, especially after Joakim Soria had another rough outing tonight.
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• Chris Sale can’t complain too much about his team’s bullpen with 14 wins on the season but David Robertson didn’t do him any favors last night. Entering the ninth with a 3-0 lead, Robertson allowed three base runners before Adam Lind capped it off with a walk off homer. After the outing, Robertson’s ERA/FIP/xFIP now stands at a pedestrian 4.14/3.53/4.15 with his career low 26.8% strikeout rate (although still above average) and his career high 12.8% walk rate being of some legitimate concern. I wouldn’t bet on Robertson to have a 4+ ERA all season and his job isn’t in danger but his spot among the elite relievers is certainly gone.

• As we all know, Aroldis Chapman throws hard. Last night he threw a pitch 105.1 mph and four pitches over 104 mph. However, the important thing over here at the Bullpen Report isn’t Chapman’s velocity but which jersey he will be throwing in a few weeks. There is a big “will they or won’t they” regarding the Yankees trading Andrew Miller but with Chapman being a free agent it’s highly likely that he is traded. All the usual suspects apply with Mark Feinsand noting that the Yankees were scouting the Indians Triple-A squad. With the Yankees ownership still holding on to a pipe dream of competing, specific deals and discussions haven’t been reported but they should start heating up very, very soon.

• After getting the win on Sunday, Francisco Rodriguez got the save last night, his 26th on the year. Early on this season Justin Wilson was a popular speculative add with K-Rod’s struggles but he’s been outstanding of late. Since June 1st, K-Rod has throw 15 innings with two earned runs and 16 strikeouts, holding batters to a .358 OPS against. On the year he’s supporting a 2.67/2.95/3.41 pitching line with a career high 52.3% groundball percentage. He’s no longer the flame thrower he was when he came up during the Angels World Series run but his ability to adjust as his velocity has fallen (88.8 mph this year) has really been something to watch. In his early years, K-Rod hardly ever threw a changeup and in 2016 he throws one 42% of the time. If any closer wants to extend their career with diminished velocity they would be smart to give K-Rod a ring, or at least text because nobody calls these days.

• Quick Hits: Wade Davis continued his return from the DL, only needing one out for his 20th save on the year. The Marlins successful season has really helped Ramos’ save totals as he now has 30 on the year, second in the league. Carlos Estevez nailed down his 6th save, and he’ll have to avoid trouble with Jake McGee and Adam Ottavino waiting in the wings.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]