One Ottoneu manager’s cuts are another Ottoneu manager’s auction bids. But take heed pretend baseball general manager! These pitchers were cut for a reason. Maybe their signature pitch no longer fell out of the zone at the last split second like it used to. Maybe injury has the general public concerned. But, maybe those criticisms will be your opportunities. This article provides some context about the pitchers who were dropped the most at the keeper deadline, using “% of leagues with a cut in the last 7 days” as the starting point.
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2/3/25

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Tanner Scott signed with the Dodgers earlier this week and you may be wondering, does that make him a top 10 closer going into the 2025 season? Certainly, it must change his pre-trade auction calculator (Steamer) ranking of 14th, right? Roster Resource lists Scott as the Dodger closer for now, but Michael Kopech, Blake Treinen, and maybe even Evan Phillips may cut in on his save counts. And what if the Dodgers score so many runs with their high-powered offense that Scott doesn’t get the opportunity to earn a save often enough? Does being on a really good team limit a team’s save accumulation? Read the rest of this entry »

If you have been reading my content or following me on Twitter (or now on Bluesky) over the years, you know my stance on RP. If not, here is the TL;DR of everything I have ever written about relievers in Ottoneu: I don’t like to spend on them. Go cheap on the pen, spend elsewhere. But, to be transparent, that was always more a vibes-based thing than real analysis. Until now.

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What is different about the cutter? Scroll down to the bar chart below to see that it is in the zone the least of the three fastballs (four-seamer, sinker, cutter) analyzed in this series. In the zone the least, yet swung on the most. Heck, it’s even chased out of the zone by hitters the most. That’s the cutter. When executed correctly, it cuts in on a batter’s hands or it tails away from the barrel. How else does it compare to the four-seamer and sinker? In this article, we conclude the “Know Your Averages” series with a jammed hitter, a broken bat, and a sore palm.

Four-seamers | Sinkers | Cutters
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When you have a pitch that can be thrown in the zone, induce weak contact, and get called strikes, you throw it and you throw it often. However, last season (2023) the sinker’s usage hit its lowest point within the Statcast era among starting pitchers, down to 13.9%. A slight resurgence this season has brought its usage up to 15.0%. Compared to a 22.8% usage in 2015, the start of the statcast era, the sinker no longer sits at the popular kid’s lunch table.

However, if we change the split to view the sinkers utilization by relievers, we see the resurgence started earlier and with a little more gusto:

Relievers have been doing crazy things with their sinkers when you look at the data. The obvious ones like throwing it faster with more movement are apparent, but throwing it in unusual locations seems to be a thing. While all those small changes are occurring, we can still rely on what is happening on average to help us make quick comparisons. For example, a swinging strike rate of 10% on a four-seam fastball is average. A 10% swinging strike rate on a sinker is really good. This post serves to help navigate benchmark statistics on the sinker.

Four-seamers | Sinkers | Cutters
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OK right out of the gate I gotta say that Lucas outshined me here! His fantastic charts were a great addition to his pitcher breakdowns. I do not have charts… but I do have thoughts!

• Lucas Kelly covered Pitchers Pt. 1 here
• Jeff Zimmerman covered the Hitters here

Upgrade

• Jack Flaherty to LAD: The team context improvement is a massive upgrade and easily dwarfs any sort of park/division difficulty losses.
• Erick Fedde 페디 to STL: An even bigger team context improvement than Flaherty’s that also comes with a little park upgrade in terms of HR suppression (99 in CHW to 93 in STL), though it is worth noting that Guarantee Rate plays to a 99 composite Park Factor while Busch Stadium is at 101.
• Lucas Erceg to KCR: Breakout RP star lands in KCR at just the right moment with James McArthur toting a 5.31 ERA (including 9 ER in 8 appearances this month) and recently acquired Hunter Harvey nursing a back injury. The former hitting prospect sits 99 mph, has a healthy 19% K-BB, and probably deserves better than his 3.58 ERA (3.08 SIERA). A worthy SVs spec this weekend.
• Trevor Rogers to BAL: Team context alone lands Rogers here in the upgrade portion. He hasn’t been the 2021 stud we saw, but I’m certainly not out on him and excited to see what Baltimore can do with him. This might pay bigger dividends in 2025, but I like it. He hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of his L9 which is nice but still comes with a meager 9% K-BB rate in 48 IP of work.

Neutral

• Alex Cobb to CLE: Cobb’s just too much of an unknown to say this an upgrade as he’s yet to throw a major league pitch this year. Team improvement is mitigated by the park downgrade He is slated to make a rehab start on Saturday, August 3rd and he could join Cleveland after that. I’m OK speculating on Cobb in 15-teamers for the stash, but keep your expectations tempered with the oft-injured-but-talented righty.
• Frankie Montas to MIL: Yes, it’s a team context upgrade for sure but will Montas actually be able to leverage it while eating up some innings? His 9% K-BB is half what it was during his 2019-22 run (3.67 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 18% K-BB in 480 IP) and his 1.4 HR9 won’t get a total reprieve in Milwaukee as American Family Field still sits 8th in HR Park Factor (Cincy is 1st, so it is a noteworthy park boost).
• Jake Bloss to TOR: There is more opportunity in Toronto as they aren’t contending, but he won’t yet be able to take advantage of it as he was sent to Triple-A after the trade and of course, it’s a worse team context. GM Ross Atkins has suggested this demotion might be temporary, though, giving Bloss a chance to breathe and process the trade before being thrust back into a big-league rotation. Stay tuned for his return as he could be a worthy streaming option in deeper formats. That said, I’m more excited about his 2025 and beyond outlook.

Downgrade

• Paul Blackburn to NYM: Better team and better overall park, but it’s worse for HRs (83 OAK, 99 NYM) which is Blackburn’s biggest issue this year (1.4 HR9). Maybe it’s more neutral than downgrade because while I am already out for next week with a trip to COL on the docket, I love the OAK/MIA 2-step at home (yes, even w/the elevated HR outlook) that sets up for the following week. It’s still only a deep league play but not a bad downballot pitcher play this weekend as that Coors start should temper prices.
• James Paxton to BOS: Worse team, worse ballpark, and still running just a 5% K-BB this year. On the other hand, he’s back with pitching coach Andrew Bailey and was moderately successful in Boston last year (17% K-BB, 4.50 ERA, 1.31 WHIP). Could be streamable, but I don’t want his at KCR/v. HOU 2-step next week so I’ll pass on bidding this week in anything but maybe AL-Only where anyone breathing has some intrigue.

Closers No Longer Closing… At Least For Now

Essentially just a subset of the downgrade category

• Carlos Estévez to PHI: He is the best positioned amongst this group because while he joins a deep bullpen, they do not currently have a locked in A-tier closer. Jeff Hoffman is having a brilliant season and could no doubt handle the role, but they like having flexibility to bring him in whenever they want so adding another stud in Estévez could push Hoffman to a more permanent fireman role with Estévez getting the bulk of the SVs. José Alvarado isn’t going anywhere and leads the team with 13 SVs, but I think Hoffman/Estévez are the plays for SVs. Even still, he was the full-time close in LAA so this is a loss.
• Tanner Scott to SDP: Fantasy folks really wanted him to head to LAD and take over their shaky closer’s role, instead he joins arguably the strongest pen in baseball. He should still garner occasional SVs when a throng of lefties are due up in the 9th, but Robert Suarez is pretty locked in as the guy.
• Yimi García to SEA: Stuck behind Andrés Muñoz, but having a truly brilliant season (2.45 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 30% K-BB in 33 IP) so should be the first man up should something open up. This one stings a lot less because he wasn’t the full-time guy with Toronto anyway so not many were banking on his limited SVs (5 so far this yr).

It’s difficult to predict how a trade will impact a pitchers fantasy value, but we’ll try to do it anyways. It mostly seems that relievers lose value because they tend to shift out of the high leverage roles that made them a trade target in the first place. Starters provide a little more support thanks to measurable park factors, team defenses and winning percentages. In this article, I’ve provided a comparison of those statistics from one team to another and attempted a best guess at whether the trade was an upgrade, a neutral move, or a downgrade.

• Paul Sporer will cover the rest of the pitchers in a Part 2 coming soon
• Jeff Zimmerman covered the hitters here

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The MLB trade deadline is just around the corner — don’t worry, the Ottoneu trade deadline isn’t until August 31 — and the search for useful pitching is never ending. Here are a handful of pitchers who are rostered in under 60% of all Ottoneu leagues who could be nice pickups if you’re looking for an option to fill in for an injured starter or looking for another bullpen piece.

I wrote up Yariel Rodríguez at the start of the month and all he’s done since is add a couple more solid starts; he had an abbreviated four inning start against the Diamondbacks on July 12 in which he struck out seven and then struck out another six in a start yesterday against the Rays. Everything I said about him a few weeks ago still applies — I like the improvements he’s made to his strikeout-minus-walk rate but there are some workload concerns still present.

Ryne Nelson has put together a nice little stretch of starts in July; he’s allowed 10 runs in 30.1 innings while running a pretty good 15.4% strikeout-minus-walk rate. None of the pitches in his repertoire really standout from a stuff or results perspective. The biggest difference this month has been a greater reliance on his fastball, increasing its usage up to 63.8%. He’s also raised his release point by a little more than two inches which could be helping him generate a little more carry on his backspinning heater. Batters have had an absolutely terrible time trying to square up his four-seamer; they’ve produced just a .185 wOBA and a .228 xwOBA off the pitch in July and that’s a huge reason why his overall results have seen an improvement. It’s probably worth monitoring his next couple of starts to see if the release point change is really the underlying factor behind his improvement.

You probably shouldn’t go out of your way to try and roster Patrick Corbin, but if you’re truly desperate, there might be some value to be wrung out of the last vestiges of his career. Over his last seven starts dating back to June 13, he’s allowed 17 runs in 39.1 innings while running a 3.19 FIP. It’s not all smoke and mirrors either; his xFIP is a solid 3.67 and his strikeout-minus-walk rate is better than it’s been in years. The cause behind his sudden late-career renaissance? A new cutter that he debuted this year that’s suddenly become a major piece of his repertoire. He’s throwing it more than a quarter of the time in July and it’s returned a 37.5% whiff rate and a .102 xwOBA allowed. More importantly, it’s allowed him to reduce the usage of his absolutely atrocious sinker. Seven starts is just a blip when compared to the years of below replacement level production, but it’s possible Corbin has finally figured out a way to be successful with his diminished stuff.

I also wrote up Dedniel Núñez about a month ago and he’s only solidified his place as a high-leverage option in the Mets bullpen. After a stint in the rotation followed by a demotion to Triple-A, José Buttó has joined Núñez in New York’s relief corps this month. They were desperate for any help they could get, so converting Buttó from a starter to more of a fireman role in their bullpen seemed like a good idea. With Núñez and Edwin Díaz covering the eighth and ninth innings, respectively, Buttó has been largely deployed as a bridge to get to those two relievers in the sixth and seventh innings. So far, it’s worked out. He’s allowed a single run this month and has collected a save and two holds while working multiple innings in five of his six appearances.

Josh Sborz returned from a shoulder injury at the beginning of the month and has slotted right back into the high-leverage mix for the Rangers. He’s collected a hold in three of his five outings and he lasted two innings in two of those appearances. He hasn’t allowed a walk since coming off the IL and has struck out seven.

Jacob Webb has slowly climbed the pecking order in the Orioles bullpen, helped by an injury to Danny Coulombe. He’s been a solid reliever all year long but he’s been particularly effective this month. With Baltimore in the middle of a tough fight for the AL East division lead, I’d expect the O’s to acquire some bullpen help ahead of the trade deadline. Webb has a high-leverage role carved out right now, but that could quickly change over the next few days depending on how they approach the deadline.

The All-Star break is quickly approaching and the search for useful pitching is never ending. Here are a handful of pitchers who are rostered in under 60% of all Ottoneu leagues who could be nice pickups if you’re looking for an option to fill in for an injured starter or looking for another bullpen piece. I’ve also included two entirely speculative adds in case you really feel like rolling the dice.

If you throw out Andrew Heaney’s first five starts in April, he’s accumulated 321.9 points across 12 starts since the beginning of May at a 4.80 points/IP clip. His overall line is being dragged down pretty significantly by that poor first month and he’s been particularly effective recently. This is nothing new from Heaney; he’s been pretty streaky throughout his career, especially since a lot of his value is derived from keeping the ball inside the park. The most encouraging aspect of this hot streak is the 19.4% K-BB% he’s running across these last 12 outings. It doesn’t come close to his career year with the Dodgers back in 2022, but it’s on par with what he was posting with the Angels before that. He’s probably worth an add during this hot streak if he’s available in your league.

Yariel Rodríguez missed about a month of the season with a back injury but he’s looked particularly strong since returning a few weeks ago. The Blue Jays used him as an opener in front of a bulk reliever a couple of times but have handed him a full starter’s workload in his last two starts. He’s responded by allowing just a single run in 12.2 innings against the Astros and Mariners. Encouragingly, he’s only allowed four walks while striking out 12 during those two outings, alleviating some of the concerns about his ability to command his repertoire. He was also working as a reliever in Japan’s NBP before coming over to the States this year presenting some risk that his workload is being monitored or limited by the Blue Jays to keep him healthy.

The Pirates had been using Luis L. Ortiz as a long reliever or bulk reliever for most of the season but they’ve allowed him to make full starts in two of his last three outings and things have gone swimmingly. Against the Reds and Mets, he tossed 12 innings of one-run ball with 12 strikeouts and no walks. Not that long ago, he was a highly regarded prospect in Pittsburgh’s organization, peaking at number four on their 2023 prospect list. A pretty disappointing rookie campaign soured his outlook but he’s making good on those high expectations a year later. There are plenty of reasons why he’s taken such a big step forward this season: he’s throwing a much more spin efficient four-seam fastball that’s now generating plenty of whiffs; he’s throwing his cutter much more often at the expense of his changeup; but the biggest difference maker is an ability to command his entire repertoire. His strikeout-to-walk ratio has gone from 1.23 to 2.89 leading to better results across the board. The only limiting factor is his future role; the Pirates could continue to let him start for now but he could be pushed back to the bullpen once Jared Jones or Bailey Falter are activated off the IL.

After a failed experiment as a starter, A.J. Puk is back in the Marlins bullpen and posting fantastic results as one of their top setup men ahead of Tanner Scott. Since returning from a shoulder injury in mid-May, he’s posted a 2.63 ERA and a 2.92 FIP across 24 innings. Over the last two weeks, he’s really stepped into a high leverage role, collecting four holds and nine strikeouts across 6.2 innings. I’ve also listed Andrew Nardi above since he’s been a solid setup man in Miami’s bullpen for nearly the entire year. It’s no secret that the Marlins will be looking to sell at the trade deadline which could open up even more high leverage opportunities for Puk or Nardi if Scott is traded away. And it’s even possible one of Puk or Nardi are moved to a contender as well.

I recommended Porter Hodge about a month ago in this column and all he’s done since then is post a 1.59 ERA and a 2.99 FIP across 11.1 innings. He’s finally seeing some high leverage opportunities in a Cubs bullpen that’s been an absolute mess this year. Héctor Neris is currently the ninth inning guy, but every role behind him is pretty much up for grabs. If you wanted to really speculate, Chicago just called up Hunter Bigge a few days ago. He’s posted outstanding strikeout rates at every minor league stop, and if things go well upon his debut, he could quickly force his way into the high leverage conversation too.

If you really wanted to go out on a limb and speculate, Kris Bubic could be your guy. He recently returned from his Tommy John rehab but the Royals have decided to move him to the bullpen because their starting rotation is currently filled with solid options. A year ago, he looked like he was in the middle of an exciting breakout and the velocity jump that helped fuel that success looks like it has stuck around after his injury. The Royals bullpen hasn’t been great with their current closer, James McArthur, looking pretty shaky at times. It’s possible Kansas City will want to try and keep Bubic stretched out in case they need him for the rotation, but they could also push him into higher leverage opportunities as a fireman to alleviate some of the pressure on their relievers.