Another week, another set of closer rankings. The following ranks are based on accumulating Saves with talent as a secondary consideration. The order is the ranking I would prefer to roster them. In some instances, I wasn’t sure (e.g. Ken Giles), I made a note.

I had a tough time ranking #12 to #30. Each of these pitchers has some questions surrounding them mainly be traded or being replaced by someone the team trades for. It’s a tough balance.
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As we enter the All-Star weekend let’s take a look back on how the weekend unfolded across the league’s bullpens and what might be on the horizon with trade rumors starting to swirl…

• After missing time dealing with personal matters Jose Alvarado returned to the Rays pen and struggle and now he’s on the IL with a strained oblique. The time frame for Alvarado’s return could be a week or so after the break, or a month + long stint. With Alvarado out of the picture for the moment, Emilio Pagan’s value certainly increases. Pagan received the save opportunity yesterday against the Yanks and pitched a perfect frame with two strikeouts for his 5th save. Pagan was a little shaky in his previous outings and this is still a committee but Pagan’s the best guy to own with Alvarado and Diego Castillo on the IL. In the committee remains Chaz Roe but we have replaced Alvarado with Colin Poche who pitched the last out of the 8th inning yesterday and has been pretty incredible this year. In the 16 innings he’s pitched thus far, Poche has a unexciting 3.38 ERA but has 24 strikeouts against just one walk with an outstanding 22.4% SwStr%. Poche has generated a ton of whiffs in his minor league career with solid walk rates so he should continue to be effective in the Rays pen, even seeing a save or two in the committee. Diego Castillo should return at some point after the break as well but there is no guarantee that he or Alvarado jumps ahead in the pecking order as the Rays will roll with their most effective options

• Greg Holland’s grip on the 9th was getting extra loose last week but he helped alleviate some concern, throwing a scoreless 9th for his 13th save on Saturday. On Sunday Holland again received the call and recorded his 14th save, although he allowed a solo shot to Trevor Story in the process. This weekend doesn’t put Holland’s struggles completely in the rear view mirror but he will enter the second half as the closer on a decent team. If you need saves you have to hold onto Holland but if another owner really needs them, I would use the clean weekend to trade him as a change could come quick if he struggles out of the gate after the break.

• Blake Treinen is off of the IL as we all know, but he remains a set up option for the A’s as Liam Hendriks holds onto the closer’s job. Last night that continued with Hendriks getting his 5th save, pitching around a hit with a strikeout against the Mariners. Hendriks made the All-Star team as a replacement this year but will he be closing for the A’s after the break? Nobody is doubting Hendriks’ ability to close, the only question is if and when Treinen finds his groove. I would be lying if I said I had an actual idea on Treinen putting it back together and I am leaning towards buying Hendriks shares. Treinen had the magical year last year but he’s been bad, inconsistent, and kind of hurt this entire year. Henriks is getting the job done and even in Treinen returns he will have to show improvement in non-save situations first, so you should get a handful of saves out of Hendriks in the meantime. I might regret making this call but relievers are fickle and I would bet on the hot hand.

• The Twins have been in command of their division all year and we have mentioned the likelihood of them making additions to the bullpen and that might be starting soon. None of the names that La Velle E. Neal III mentions are surprising but the Twins have checked in on Kirby Yates and Ken Giles. Taylor Rogers has done an admirable job as closer, even throwing 2.1 perfect innings with 5 strikeouts for the save on Saturday, but if Giles or Yates entered the fray, Rogers would likely be demoted to a set up role. No trade is imminent but Giles and Yates will surely have their names thrown around over the next few weeks.

The Twins were also linked with interest in Will Smith earlier this year which would of course help their bullpen and also add confusion to who would be getting saves. As you can see, how the saves fall is completely dependent on which team a closer goes to. If the Red Sox acquire a reliever they would likely leapfrog everyone as the favored candidate for saves, but if the Yankees acquired one they might only see the 6th inning. It’s a little a bit easier to guesstimate on who will gain save opportunities for the selling team but even that is not necessarily obvious in every case. For the Padres, if Yates is moved Stammen is the obvious replacement so I would be buying shares in him. If and when Will Smith is moved the Giants  could turn to Tony Watson or Sam Dyson but it’s possible that one or both of those could be traded as well. Ken Giles has been one of the most dominant relievers this year and could help a team in any role but neither Daniel Hudson or Joe Biagini is an obvious one-man replacement, although both should be monitored in all AL Only leagues. Aaron Bummer might be a lefty but he stands to see saves if Alex Colome is dealt.

The trade deadline closer carousel is just starting and we will be sure to keep you informed of all rumors and possible fall-outs as they happen.

A few bullpen notes as you enjoy whatever it is you choose to do this July 4th…

•  Welp, after I mentioned last week that Greg Holland’s job seemed safe he decided to implode, blowing another save last night and now he might be in danger of losing his job. Al did a great job going through the possible options last night so there’s no reason to relitigate the back of the Diamondbacks pen. Bat Flip Crazy also had a Tweet worth mentioning here showcasing Holland’s struggles and decline this month. A replacement for Holland hasn’t been mentioned yet so he will stay on the grid below but it’s unlikely that he continues to see save opportunities with Andrew Chafin, Yoan Lopez, and Yoshihisa Hirano all possible alternatives. Whoever Torey Lovullo chooses is worth an add but this is a situation that could use some time to sort itself out.

• Blake Treinen returned from the IL last night and promptly received the loss, allowing an earned run and three base runners to the Twins, while only recording one out. The A’s end goal is for Treinen to return to closing but until he shows signs of improvement his seat is going to be hot and shared with Liam Hendriks who has been consistently better than him all season. I’m giving Oakland the committee designation for now. If Treinen doesn’t start stringing together some scoreless appearances then he might return to the IL but would definitely lose his grasp on saves. If Treinen shows improvement then I would expect him to receive the majority of saves here on out. This is a tenuous situation and both players are worth owning for any teams in need of saves. My hot take would be that Treinen has looked off all year and his minimum IL stint hasn’t done anything to convince me otherwise and I would look to buy low-ish on Hendriks with an owner afraid that it’s Treinen’s job again.

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From now until the trade deadline at the month’s end, I will be publishing a weekly post on overall closer rankings. The focus is not the best closers, but the combination of talent, opportunity, the chance of being traded, other bullpen arms, and mainly accumulating Saves. These rankings could change on a dime but at least they provide some structure for speculating on Saves.

I find the rumor mill boring but usually where there is smoke, there is fire. For that reason, I’m basing the chances of being traded on MLBTraderumors and The Athletic’s most likely traded lists. If they are wrong, I’m wrong.
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• Wade Davis‘ struggles have been well documented so it was nice to see him throw a perfect inning, striking out a pair for his 12th save last night. Davis has been abysmal at home which can explain some of his troubles but Coors Field isn’t going anywhere. One clean save won’t necessarily get Davis out of the dog house either as Scott Oberg was unavailable last night. The next save opportunity for the Rockies will be more telling although given Wade Davis’ contract I have to imagine he gets another chance as full time closer again, and could even have that job back already.

• No save situation in Oakland but Liam Hendriks got the final four outs for the A’s. Blake Treinen is still on the shelf with a shoulder issue but he’s working his way towards returning. Treinen should get the job back once he returns but given his struggles, his elbow issue earlier, and now the shoulder impingement, I wouldn’t bet on an easy and clean return to the 9th. If Treinen has any setbacks, Hendriks would clearly continue to be the closer but even if/when Treinen returns I would hold onto Hendriks as Treinen’s struggles have been fairly prominent.

• Like many people, I was critical of the Braves for not acquiring a reliever but they might have something in Luke Jackson. Jackson pitched around a walk, striking out a pair for his 13th save and although he has quite a few blown saves, he’s been excellent of late. On the year Jackson has a 2.49 SIERA,  a 25.6% K-BB%, and a 15.2% SwStr% which ranks 8th, 17th, and 22nd respectively among qualified relievers. The Braves could still use additional bullpen arms as any competing team could more or less, but they’re not in dire straights for a closer/shutdown reliever. A.J. Minter has also been better of late and although I think Jackson’s job is safe, Minter would likely see saves when Jackson needs a breather moving forward.

• It’s a closer carousel every year but Shane Green has completely avoided it in Detroit, getting his 22nd save last night. I can’t say I expected Greene to be among the league leaders in saves with an ERA under one (0.87) but here we are. I have read that the Tigers would trade Shane Greene, along with other players on the roster, but there hasn’t been a strong link yet with any team. Greene has another year of team control next year so the Tigers won’t be shipping him off for peanuts but I would still expect him to finish the year on another team than Detroit. While Greene has a shiny ERA his peripherals, although pretty good, aren’t quite as strong and he may not be the best reliever on whichever team he would theoretically be traded to. With that said, I would keep cashing in on his saves moving forward as your league mates are probably just as worried as you are about a possible trade.

• Quick Hits: Greg Holland doesn’t get talked about too much around here but he’s been consistent as the Diamondbacks closer, notching his 12th save. Holland could be a desired piece if he was put on the market but the DBacks have been pretty good this year and I would expect them to keep him on the team. Poor outing from Hader last night as he only had one strikeout for his 20th save. Roenis Elias took the loss last night but remains the Mariners closer. Barring a bad run he should hold that job so long as he’s in Seattle, which may not last the month as he could be on the move at the deadline as a lefty arm. Jose Alvarado returned to Tampa and gave up a run in a non-save situation in the 9th. Alvarado should continue to pitch in high leverage innings in Tampa, splitting saves with Pagan. Sergio Romo isn’t sexy but he continues to put up saves, grabbing his 15th. It’s assumed Romo will be on the move as well but he’s not a particularly good pitcher so he might actually see more saves than expected to end the year.

• After a longer than normal offseason for him, Craig Kimbrel is back on the Cubs as he’s getting activated and is now no longer a Cubs minor leaguer. Kimbrel didn’t join the Cubs to not pitch in the 9th inning so he immediately moves to the top of the grid with Pedro Strop and Steve Cishek behind him in the pecking order. Kimbrel showed a few signs last year of some rust but 90% of Prime Kimbrel is still an elite closing option. It’s probably smarter to wait to see how Kimbrel does before anointing him as such but he will surely have a long leash, he will get strike outs even if he’s not as effective as expected, and the Cubs should provide him a healthy dose of leads to protect.

• The trade rumors are starting to percolate with Jon Morosi going over a few relievers who could be on the market. The Pirates have yet to suggest they’re going to fully sell and as a result haven’t mentioned Felipe Vazquez as a trade piece but Morosi connects the Dodgers as someone to have interest in Vazquez. Any contending team would of course love to add a Felipe Vazquez but until he’s mentioned as available it’s hard to say anything is imminent. With that said, Vazquez would likely lose his closer’s role on the Dodgers with Kenley Jansen cemented there. And while every team would love a Vazquez, not every team has the assets to acquire but the Dodgers do have a great farm system with a few pieces MLB or near MLB ready which is likely something the Pirates would want if they were to “rebuild.”

Of more interest in the Morosi piece is Will Smith, who we have mentioned as a trade candidate since the season started. Although the Giants have been horrible, Smith has upped his game becoming not just a solid lefty option but a shutdown reliever. Will Smith ranks 3rd in the MLB in K-BB% for relievers behind Josh Hader and Ken Giles but ahead of bigger names like Edwin Diaz, Brad Hand, and Felipe Vazquez. The Giants expected to trade Will Smith this summer but they likely didn’t expect to get as big of a return as they might get given how well Smith has done. If/when Smith is traded, it will be interesting to see who replaces him. Tony Watson’s usage suggests it could be him but Sam Dyson and Mark Melancon (and his contract) are also lingering. Reyes Moronta is the closer of the future but there are too many options ahead of him at the moment. Also, while Smith gets a lot of the deserved attention, all the aforementioned names behind him in the pen are on the table too and could be moved in a deal either with or separately from Smith.

• For a while Matt Barnes was named the best reliever in Boston but wasn’t being used as the main closer. While he still might be the best reliever of the bunch he hasn’t been of late as his struggles continued last night blowing his 6th save after Jose Abreu took him deep in the 9th inning.  The Sox pen remains both a committee and a disaster with Barnes, Workman, Brasier, and others eligible for a save on a given night.

• Speaking of disasters, Raisel Iglesias had one last night in a non-save situation. Iglesias entered in a tie game in the 8th and proceeded to allow three hits, a walk, and a homer to Justin Bour culminating in four earned runs and a 7th loss. Iglesias’ seasonal line is still pretty good with a 3.68 SIERA and a healthy amount of whiffs but he has been a legitimate disaster in non-save situations. A poor outing is a poor outing and it’s hard to fully buy into Iglesias not being as good in non-save situations moving forward, but earlier this season he confessed his distaste for being used non-traditionally so it might force the Reds hand to use him as a regular closer. Iglesias’ struggles outside of the 9th make me less likely to put the Reds situation as a committee even if they have low key been trending towards that direction. I’m keeping the grid the same with Iglesias’ seat getting a tad warm.

• Quick Hits: Taylor Rogers had a four-out save and his grasp on the job is tightening. As we have mentioned, the Twins could very likely add to their pen and throw Rogers and co. back into a committee but for now he’s their guy. Roenis Elias recorded his 10th save, throwing two innings in the process and he’s proving himself as someone capable to close games or be used as a lefty and should be a decent trade target this summer because as we know everything is for sale in Seattle. A.J. Minter got the save last night with Luke Jackson and Anthony Swarzak getting a night off. Minter is still behind those two in the pecking order but he’s been pretty good of late and is helping firm the Braves pen. Liam Hendricks nailed down his 2nd save of the year with Blake Treinen on the IL. Treinen has a shoulder issue so I wouldn’t bank on a quick return and would bank on Hendricks receiving the vast majority of saves for the remainder of the year in Oakland. Sean Doolittle (17) and  Wade Davis (11) also recorded saves last night.

• Earlier this season Blake Treinen was dealing with some elbow discomfort and now he has been placed on the IL with a shoulder issue. The A’s are calling it minor but in the meantime Liam Hendricks is expected to fill in as closer as he secured his first save last night, pitching a perfect 9th while striking out a pair. Some muscle memory with Joakim Soria on the grid in recent years almost made me throw him below but Yusmeiro Petit pitched 1.1 innings with 4 strikeouts in the 7th and 8th and has been a little more effective than Soria this year. Lou Trivino was expected to be next in line for Oakland, but he’s been struggling himself of late and Hendricks leapfrogged him in the pecking order. Whether Hendricks is closing for a couple of weeks or more will depending on how Treinen recovers. I’m clearly now doctor but it’s also clear that Treinen has not quite been himself this year even if his velocity has maintained.

• We mentioned Diego Castillo’s recent struggles yesterday and those continued with Castillo allowing two runs and four baserunners in the 7th inning last night, getting his 6th loss this season. The Rays have always been in a committee so its still a three-headed closrer with Castillo, Jose Alvarado, and Emilio Pagan but the preferred order of operations isn’t necessarily known. With Castillo’s struggles (11 runs in his last 9 appearances) I have put Alvarado atop the committee even though he has dealt with his own struggles this season. I don’t feel confident enough to say Pagan has jumped into the lead but if he keeps throwing like he has been that could happen.

• Naturally after I take off the committee tag for the Twins, Taylor Rogers is used in the 8th inning and blows the lead. After the Twins scored in the top of the 10th to take the lead Blake Parker was used in the bottom half, throwing a perfect inning for his 10th save. I am going to sadly reapply the committee tag here as the Twins will still throw their best option in the earlier innings on occasion, but Rogers is still by far the best reliever to own in Minnesota.

• Jose Leclerc pitched in the 8th inning last night, throwing a scoreless frame dropping his ERA to 4.72. Although he has an elevated ERA his 3.07 SIERA and 3.58 xFIP are closer to in line with what we expected from him this year. With that said, Leclerc still isn’t getting saves yet in Texas with Chris Martin getting the nod for the 9th instead of Shawn Kelley last night. Martin pitched a clean inning for his 3rd save. With Leclerc looming it feels silly for Texas to anoint Chris Marin as the closer but it seems as though he and Kelley could be co-closers moving forward. With that said, Kelley has struggled of late so a change wouldn’t be surprising. Leclerc had a few poor outings in a row in early June but in spite of that, since May 12th he has a 1.58 SIERA, 41.9% K-BB%, and a 16.1% SwStr%. Leclerc will never have particularly good control but he’s back to missing bats again and I would bet the over on his rest-of-season saves compared to Kelley+Martin.

• Quick Hits: Will Smith remains an obvious trade deadline candidate but amidst that he keeps shutting down the 9th, getting 20th save last night. With Aroldis Chapman getting a break, Zack Britton recorded his 3rd save. Britton’s experience (and contract) might place him next in line in New York but he walked three batters last night and overall hasn’t been particularly effective, with Adam Ottavino the obvious best reliever behind Chapman. Josh Hader threw two perfect innings for his 18th save, Brad hand (22), Felipe Vazquez (19), and Ken Giles (12) all recorded saves as well.

• With Diego Castillo having been used in the previous games (while also struggling a bit) the Rays continued their committee with Emilio Pagan getting the last two outs for his 4th save of the year. Oliver Drake got the last out in the 8th and the first of the 9th but was relieved for Pagan after allowing a walk. Jose Alvarado has been out of commission for personal reasons but threw a bullpen session this week and should be back in action soon. We still have Castillo first in the pecking order but if his struggles continue, Alvarado or Pagan could leapfrog. All three had more appealing ratios earlier this season but they’re all effective relievers and could all be owned, especially in leagues counting holds.

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• Since returning from the IL, Wade Davis has been very ineffective, leading to a deserved red band in the grid below. The Rockies haven’t made any changes yet of course and called on Davis in the 9th last night for the save. Davis got his 9th save while striking out a pair, but not before allowing a solo shot to Kevin Cron. It’s nice to see Davis get the save and a couple of whiffs but since his return he’s allowed 8 runs in 6 appearances and a very meager 7.1% Swinging Strike rate. Although he got the save, Davis will have to start putting up zeros to hold the job or a potential return to the IL.

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It has been a little while since I introduced to you my Weighted Plate Discipline Index (wPDI) for pitchers. wPDI is a (new) plate discipline index metric that aims to meaningfully aggregate the frequency of pitcher plate discipline outcomes into one composite figure. A pitcher who generates a lot of contact in the zone will have a lower wPDI, while a pitcher who generates a lot of swings and misses out of the zone will have a higher one, etc.

We are now almost halfway into the 2019 season. Let’s check up on the 2019 wPDI Leaderboard for RPs – i.e. the relief pitchers who are excelling in plate discipline.

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