Two weeks ago we rolled out or consensus first base rankings, and last week I picked them apart and wrote about some things I didn’t necessarily agree with. The tiers below are my personal rankings, dividing the players into groups based on their approximate fantasy value. These rankings will be updated every month throughout the season.

Tier One
Miguel Cabrera
Albert Pujols
Joey Votto
Adrian Gonzalez
Prince Fielder

These five are the very best of the best, all first round fantasy options expected to produce huge numbers. Miggy’s fractured orbital bone could delay the start of his season, in which case I’d bump him behind Pujols. Either way, you’re going to get massive production.

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We’ve got your consensus outfielder ranks, but it helps to put guys in tiers, especially for your NL-only players out there. So, just to make sure we have you covered, here are your National League Outfielder tiers.

All is well here. Shortstops get one guy in the top tier and outfielders in the National League alone get four. How do you like your 30/30 outfielder served?
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You’ve read the consensus rankings, complained about them and have been no doubt counting down the minutes until the tiered rankings are released. Well, it’s your lucky day, as your final 2012 rankings sit below. Yes, my crystal ball is that good, it already knows how the season will play out.

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Our contribution to FantasyPros’ consensus rankings was filed today, and while my own tiers are still forthcoming, now is as good a time as any to take a look at my colleagues’ rankings. Having pitching as deep as it is this year is a mixed blessing. On the one hand, it affords players the luxury of waiting until the middle or late rounds to build their staffs and means that an error in the first couple rounds — losing someone like Clayton Kershaw to injury for example, not that I think Kershaw is terribly risky — isn’t likely to be a fatal blow.

On the other hand, it makes doing these rankings virtually impossible. Who is the fifth best pitcher in the NL? Matt Cain? Zack Greinke? Cole Hamels? Solid candidates all, but picking The One is a tough ask. Generally speaking, I’m in line right with Eno, Jeff, Mike, and Zach, but here are a few things I wanted to highlight ahead of my own contribution. Read the rest of this entry »

Tiers seem to unearth the mighty wrath of fantasy baseball enthusiasts, but since we’ve already seen the third base consensus rankings and my general reactions to them thereafter, it’s time to categorize the gentlemen at the five into tidy little compartments of descending desirability.

As you well know, the tiers are not hard and fast — they change (sometimes dramatically) over the course of the first few months of the season. In fact, there’s been movement in these tiers even before I had a chance to publish them! It’s important to remember that these are not keeper tiers — they simply attempt to arrange rough approximations of value in standard 5×5 leagues as you prepare for what might be your final draft(s).

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Consensus Ranks: OF, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, and RP and SP.

Tiered Ranks: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, NL OF, AL SP, NL SP, Holds.

Matt Moore. Yes, he’s not in here. We’ve been over it. He’s not a starter yet, even though he’ll be a starter later, and so he’s not in there right now. But you know what, we ranked him in our mind pieces, and we got around a 28 all together. So that puts him ahead of Shaun Marcum and Brandon Morrow on the rankings, and given some uncertainty about his innings (and performance, as much as is the case with any young player) this year, that might be around right. That said, I have no such reservations about his innings, since he managed over 180 last year and could do a full slate this year without bumping up 20%.

The rest of the list? Maybe you like Felix Hernandez more, or Zack Greinke. Or Dan Hudson gets your panties in or out of a bundle. Brandon McCarthy spoke today at the SABR analytics conference and some of you were giving him the stank eye, maybe. I loved Derek Holland last year, but now I’m the one that hates him. I hate Johan Santana more than most non-Mets fans, and I like Tim Stauffer more than most Padres fans perhaps. But maybe no-one caused more consternation than Josh Collmenter — do you believe in deception or not?

And, before you get too upset about the rankings at the bottom, know this: by the time you get down there, it’s all approximation. Treat that as a list of pitchers we like in deep leagues. It’s better than assuming that we really think that Jerome Williams is demonstrably better that Jorge De La Rosa.

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As beloved editor/writer Eno Sarris continues to roll out the RotoGraphs Consensus Positional Rankings, those of us not included in the Fab Four (with the handsome mugshots) but that cover a specific position were asked to chime in with our thoughts after the rankings were released.  You can find my personal rankings either on FantasyPros or on my site, but for now, let’s just talk backstops and the consensus rankings.  Also, don’t forget that next week we will be rolling out the position tiers as we did last season.

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Consensus Ranks: OF, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, and RP and SP.

Tiered Ranks: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, NL OF, AL SP, NL SP, Holds.

After all the positions with all the disagreement, we hit one of the most difficult positions to fill… and we all agree. I mean, look at Alex Avila, who will most probably regress off of his numbers from last year — number eight right across the board. Apparently, I ‘love’ Mr. K, J.P. Arencibia, and showed that love by ranking him a full two spots ahead of everyone else. Even Jonathan Lucroy, who appears halfway down the list hand has very moderate upside, shows up around the same place on everyone’s list.

So which catcher inspired the most disagreement? Maybe it’s Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who finally paired a nice batting average on balls in play with his low-contact approach last year. Will he fend off Ryan Lavarnway (who didn’t quite play enough catcher to be a catcher this year) another season? We can’t seem to agree on John Buck, but maybe that’s because some of us choose to focus on how far away the new park’s walls are, and some of us choose to focus on how much shorter the walls are in that new left field. Some of us think Devin Mesoraco is going to take that job and run, some of us think that Ryan Hanigan will charm his veteran-loving manager into most of the playing time. Oh, and finally (mercifully), the Mets writer on staff liked the Mets player a little more than the rest of the rankers. Phew.

Catch yourself a catcher.

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Consensus Ranks: OF, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, and RP and SP.

Tiered Ranks: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, NL OF, AL SP, NL SP, Holds.

Oh Dee Gordon! Expect more Dee Gordon coverage. Because that guy is a buck-twenty-five soaking wet, can’t take a walk to save his life, and might have problems getting out of a paper bag with a bat. But he’s got elite speed and plays shortstop, so he’ll be an important player worth considering from different angles. Emilio Bonifacio might not actually play the position in real life, but he can join this particular party.

The rest of the list features a lot of agreement, even if some of us like Tyler Pastornicky a little more than others. Jhonny Peralta could regress and still be pretty valuable, so it’s not surprising that he showed up in different slots on the list. Oh, and look at this — the Mets fan once again hates on the Mets guy on the rankings. Something something self-hatred. But Ruben Tejada has maybe .280/20 upside, and even if Ryan Theriot (lite) with a glove is useful for a Major League team, it might not be great for your fantasy team.

The shortstops!

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Consensus Ranks: OF, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, and RP and SP.

Tiered Ranks: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, NL OF, AL SP, NL SP, Holds.

And just because I’ve just finished up watching the Angels in Spring Training, I’ll jump to an absence on this list: Mark Trumbo. He’s not there because he’s not a third baseman yet. In the game I attended, he was the DH. Despite projecting him to be the starting third baseman for the FanGraphs Positional Rankings, I now believe the Angels will mix and match at third base — as they have done before — and that Trumbo won’t be the fulltime third baseman. The team can keep saying that they want to try him there, but if they keep running Alberto Callaspo out there in the spring, their actions speak louder. That means my projection of 461 at-bats, 24 home runs and a .243 batting average could really be dead-on. That’s a crowded team. If that more conservative projection holds true, Trumbo would be worth a little less than Lonnie Chisenhall on my list.

I don’t hate Pablo Sandoval, I just think that a couple of third-basemen will offer more well-rounded lines or more power. Ryan Roberts was held in different esteem by most of us — I felt that even with regression he’d be useful. It’s a little strange to see Daniel Murphy so close to David Freese despite the only Mets fan in the room being sour on his projections. Here’s the thing I may have factored more heavily than the others: Murphy is playing second base again, where he’s blown out his knee two straight years making the turn on double plays. My projections are not heavy on playing time.

The rest of our rankings are pretty similar. Well, we’ll see about Pedro Alvarez.
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