Two weeks ago we rolled out or consensus first base rankings, and last week I picked them apart and wrote about some things I didn’t necessarily agree with. The tiers below are my personal rankings, dividing the players into groups based on their approximate fantasy value. These rankings will be updated every month throughout the season.
These five are the very best of the best, all first round fantasy options expected to produce huge numbers. Miggy’s fractured orbital bone could delay the start of his season, in which case I’d bump him behind Pujols. Either way, you’re going to get massive production.
Second tier first baseman will give you top tier stats at basically any other position. Sandoval (3B), Santana (C), and Napoli (C) have more fantasy value at different positions, but they do currently have 1B eligibility. Teixeira could jump into the top tier if he stops dragging down his average by trying to yank everything over the short right field porch at Yankee Stadium. Hosmer’s ranking may be aggressive, but I don’t think there’s anyone out there who doesn’t love the upside.
Youkilis is injury prone but still very productive. Morse is currently dealing with a lat problem and is in jeopardy of missing Opening Day, though I would have had him in the back-end of Tier Two if we knew he was going to be healthy from the get go. Lat and oblique problems are very tricky, they can linger for a long time. I’ve been saying this all offseason, but I expect a big breakout from Davis. I just can’t rank him any higher right now given the injury concerns. Swisher (OF), Kendrick (2B), and Young (2B and 3B) are among the 1B-eligible guys with more value at other positions.
We’re starting to get into the flawed three-true outcome types now. Word is that Howard’s injury may now linger into May and possibly June, but we have yet to hear definitive word from the team. I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt for now. I’m a Goldschmidt fan but I don’t love him, though I can definitely understand arguments saying he should be higher.
I fully expect Dunn to rebound this year, though maybe not all the way to the guy he was just two years ago. I love me some Brandon Belt, though we still don’t know how much playing time he’ll actually get this season. Let’s all hope he tears the cover off the ball right out of the gate so the Giants have no choice but to play him every day. Yonder’s opposite field power fits well in Petco Park and I wouldn’t be surprised if he pokes 25 or so homers this year.
There is some upside in this group. Kendrys could end up a Tier Two guy by the end of the season, but I just can’t rank him any higher given how much time he’s missed with that ankle/leg injury. Smoak could step forward with some good health, and with Rizzo we’re just waiting for the inevitable call-up.
Just … no.