On Wednesday, I took a look back at who I calculated to be the most overvalued pitchers versus their pre-season average draft position (ADP). Today, I will review the pitchers I identified as the most undervalued. I had excluded the reliever turned starter group, but since I was very bullish on Chris Sale, I would guess he would have appeared had I not excluded them.
On Monday, I reviewed the hitters who I calculated to be the most overvalued at each position (sans catcher) in the pre-season. Today I will recap those who I figured to be the most undervalued at those positions. And surprise, we actually have a catcher this time. I will begrudgingly use the Yahoo rankings again and hopefully no position eligibility drama will ensue this time around. Just to repeat what I said in the comments of the overvalued article, I base my own valuations/rankings on 20 games played last year and 10 this year. So to keep things consistent, I have to apply the same rules on the Yahoo final season rankings to accurately compare.
I continue my quest at taking a look back at my pre-season predictions and claims by checking in on who I believed to be the most overvalued starting pitchers. Pitcher valuations are easier and there should be less controversy (well, none at all!) over position eligibility. I’ll use Yahoo again, but any obvious relief pitchers who happen to have SP eligibility on the site will not be included in the rankings.
I didn’t just make 20 bold predictions in the pre-season, I also made various other proclamations and forecasts that put my credibility on the line. One of those series of articles was a look at who I thought were the most overvalued and undervalued players at every position, including pitchers. Today is a review of the hitters I thought were overvalued. As a reminder, I looked at the top 10 hitters in ADP at each infield position and top 20 in the outfield. I tried looking at catcher, but realized that because most leagues draft only one, the most overvalued I found was only ranked one spot earlier than my rank. The most overvalued were those who I ranked furthest away from the hitter’s ADP at the time. I am going to use final season Yahoo ranks because that seems easiest, even though I am quite positive their valuation system probably is not all that accurate. Anyhow, Let’s see how I did.
Personally, I hold the old-school belief that the well-rounded player with speed and defense is the best selection for the MVP hardware, but that’s of no concern until I have a vote. In the meantime, I’m left wondering what this debate means for fantasy.
We fantasy-obsessed know that this debate foreshadows a more important one: who should be the number one pick next year. Maybe the things we know about the players now can help us make that decision a little easier, but the conversation can still tell us something about the things we value in the fantasy game.
There were certainly some compelling candidates for the 2012 Fantasy Zombie in the hitters division, but after the top choices, the field wasn’t actually all that deep. Plenty of hitters surged to great seasons, but of those that did, very few were coming back from either bad injuries or the true pits of previous poor performance. There is no such problem with the pitchers.
More of these candidates are coming back from major injuries than are simply rounding back into form after a trip to the abyss, which makes sense given that it’s easier for an injury to cost a pitcher a full season than it is for a hitter to miss the whole year. Four of the five have had Tommy John surgery at some point in their career, and three earned their spot on this list with their performance following that procedure. Jake Peavy, the only one of the four not to have his UCL replaced, could have been on this list last year as well, since he was working his way back from a detached lat, which remains one of the most painful injuries I’ve ever encountered.
Irrespective of what put them under the knife, here are five strong contenders for the pitching edition of Fantasy Zombie 2012, but there are surely others who deserve a nod and a handshake. As before, if there’s someone you feel I’ve missed, leave it in the comments! Read the rest of this entry »
Thanks to the Melky Cabrera saga, the 3.1 PAs per team game a player needs to qualify for the batting title is firmly ingrained in our collective conscious. I’ll admit, I had to look up the qualification for the ERA title — 1 IP per team game, for those who also didn’t know — and while it isn’t as easy to parrot on command, it makes sense even if it’s a bit arbitrary. Rookie of the Year criteria are a little odd as well, but again, more or less make sense, but what about Comeback Player of The Year?
It’s never really been clear whether a player has to actually come back from something specific or if being rotten one year and then excellent the next qualifies as a comeback. The introductory press release offers no help, stating only that “This exciting new MLB-sanctioned award, which will be presented annually to one player each from the American and National Leagues, will recognize those players who have re-emerged on the baseball field during a given season.” The Sporting News, who present the more well-known version of the same award, seems to have similar criteria for their prize. Read the rest of this entry »
The trade deadline is behind us but there were very few moves made with real fantasy impact at the first base position. Due to popular demand, the catchers — Buster Posey, Carlos Santana, Joe Mauer, and Mike Napoli — have been left out of the first base rankings just because they’re so much more valuable behind the plate. The same goes for guys with middle infield eligibility like Howie Kendrick and Michael Young. Here are our preseason, May, June, and July tiered rankings for reference, as well as our consensus second half rankings.
Tier One
Miguel Cabrera
Albert Pujols
Prince Fielder
Paul Konerko
These four remain the game’s truly elite first base producers, a position where monster numbers are expected. Konerko has cooled off a bit in the power department, which likely has something to do with the minor wrist procedure he had a few weeks ago. The rest of his production is top notch though.
Tier Two
Adrian Gonzalez
Edwin Encarnacion
Mark Teixeira
Mark Trumbo
Billy Butler
Allen Craig
Paul Goldschmidt 
Gonzalez has finally started to hit as expected after three down months to start the season, a welcome sight for fantasy owners. Goldschmidt now has a clear path for playing time with Lyle Overbay being removed from the roster, though he still does most of his damage against southpaws. Craig also has a clear path for playing time, but he’s a little banged up himself at the moment.
Tier update week is upon us again and it’s time to check in on the American League starting pitchers. Check out the July rankings to refresh your memory and rememember that these rankings only reflect how I expect the pitchers to perform over the rest of the season.
I’ve been slacking on my pimping: It’s been a long time since I’ve tiered my National League outfielders. After a long discussion of rankings every time we produce ranks (our late July ranks are up on the main page), I realized that I think in tiers. Too often a reader would react to one player that was right below another, and I would be surprised. Would I take this player for that player in a trade? Dunno, what does the rest of my team look like. What are my needs.
Instead, I find it more rewarding to think of players in tiers. Is there much sense in wondering if I would trade Carlos Gonzalez for Matt Kemp straight up anyway? Much more interesting to me is the idea that I could trade away Jay Bruce in a trade that netted me Justin Upton, and my outfielder’s tier wouldn’t be affected.
So, your tiers:
