Updated Consensus Ranks: Starting Pitchers

by
May 14, 2012

We’ve finally come to the end of this long dance, and it feels good. The hope all along was not to impose our belief system on anyone with these rankings, but to show what a projections-based ranking system would look like: sober and difficult to budge. After all, true talent changes much less often than results do.

As for the major disagreements, they seemed to surround a few issues.

1) The injured player. This is such a guesstimate. How long will Cory Luebke be out, for example? Even with players like Mike Morse that have a supposed time table, there are questions about his production when he returns. A projection-based system might ding him for the missed time, but it will have difficulty reducing production based on whatever injury the player has. Even a little subjectivity makes this difficult.

2) The oft-injured player. In these rankings, Josh Johnson might play the role of Josh Hamilton: the player whose rest-of-season 5×5 production would be more useful if it didn’t include likely missed time. For the most part, health looks like an age-related skill — some players get hurt more often, and past health is definitely factored into projections. A breakout player who plays three-quarters of the time gets a ding.

3) The breakout player. There are breakouts, they do exist. There are also crazy months. There are more of the latter than the former, and so our sobriety reflects a tiny bit of cynicism regarding breakouts. We aren’t straight-jacketed by our projections, either — each analyst has his own mix of subjectivity and projections, after all, and even the choice of projections is rooted in subjectivity, and every fantasy ranking list is subjective in some fashion — but when there’s little warning for a breakout, we’re more likely to be suspicious of it than perhaps anyone.

That said, pitchers might have the easiest path towards rapid improvement or decline. Pitchers have peripherals that are harbingers of both — velocity, swinging strike rate, change in pitching mix — and when a young (or new) pitcher like Yu Darvish or Brandon Beachy shows good news in those areas, we’re just as likely as anyone to move them.

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So let’s take a look at the starters.

FanGraphs Consensus Rankings:
Starting Pitchers
New Last Player Name Eno Sarris Mike Podhorzer Jeff Zimmerman Zach Sanders
1 1 Roy Halladay 1 1 2 2
2 3 Clayton Kershaw 2 3 1 1
3 2 Cliff Lee 3 2 3 4
4 4 Justin Verlander 4 4 4 3
5 5 Zack Greinke 8 6 5 6
6 6 Felix Hernandez 5 8 6 7
7 9 Cole Hamels 6 7 7 8
8 10 CC Sabathia 7 5 12 10
9 8 Jered Weaver 9 9 13 5
10 11 Dan Haren 10 10 9 15
11 12 James Shields 11 11 11 13
12 15 Stephen Strasburg 15 13 14 11
13 7 Tim Lincecum 14 12 8 19
14 13 David Price 12 15 17 12
15 16 Matt Cain 13 14 29 9
16 17 Yovani Gallardo 18 17 10 32
17 27 Yu Darvish 22 20 15 21
18 23 Brandon Beachy 19 23 16 24
19 14 Jon Lester 20 16 19 27
20 19 Adam Wainwright 16 18 32 20
21 21 Ian Kennedy 25 28 20 14
22 26 Matt Garza 21 22 22 22
23 30 C.J. Wilson 17 26 31 16
24 18 Mat Latos 26 19 18 34
25 20 Madison Bumgarner 24 24 26 26
26 33 Gio Gonzalez 23 38 25 18
27 24 Josh Johnson 28 27 33 17
28 36 Brandon Morrow 31 29 21 41
29 34 Tommy Hanson 30 36 28 39
30 37 Anibal Sanchez 29 35 30 43
31 32 Shaun Marcum 32 32 44 30
32 25 Daniel Hudson 27 44 24 47
33 38 Jordan Zimmerman 35 37 39 33
34 42 Colby Lewis 37 30 27 52
35 40 Jaime Garcia 34 31 51 35
36 39 Ricky Romero 33 52 43 28
37 31 Josh Beckett 48 25 36 48
38 49 Derek Holland 39 41 49 36
39 35 Max Scherzer 51 33 23 62
40 46 Wandy Rodriguez 38 53 41 38
41 NA Matt Moore 36 21 59 61
42 55 Bud Norris 45 59 38 49
43 51 Johnny Cueto 44 51 64 37
44 44 Tim Hudson 41 49 78 31
45 52 Gavin Floyd 53 55 40 54
46 47 Jeremy Hellickson 43 47 75 42
47 61 Ryan Dempster 42 45 37 84
48 48 Doug Fister 61 67 56 25
49 53 Brandon McCarthy 40 70 60 40
50 NA Jeff Samardzija 57 39 70 55
51 NA Chris Sale 50 40 71 60
52 50 Ervin Santana 52 50 46 73
53 64 Vance Worley 47 83 65 29
54 71 Edwin Jackson 60 71 50 44
55 60 Mike Minor 56 54 58 57
56 77 Jake Peavy 77 42 61 46
57 43 Ted Lilly 55 34 47 91
58 58 Ricky Nolasco 54 61 35 78
59 66 Chad Billingsley 49 74 48 58
60 67 Jonathon Niese 59 58 52 71
61 57 John Danks 70 57 45 76
62 54 Hiroki Kuroda 71 48 57 75
63 87 A.J. Burnett 67 64 68 59
64 NA Lance Lynn 62 75 73 80
65 62 Johan Santana 46 46 151 50
66 70 Chris Capuano 64 68 55 107
67 76 Homer Bailey 76 62 69 92
68 85 Erik Bedard 73 76 81 70
69 133 Jason Hammel 91 43 101 69
70 78 Ryan Vogelsong 65 106 86 53
71 63 Tim Stauffer 72 82 82 74
72 41 Ubaldo Jimenez 63 134 34 83
73 72 Mark Buehrle 88 73 99 56
74 NA Neftali Feliz 83 79 72 85
75 NA Daniel Bard 86 56 85 94
76 56 Justin Masterson 75 132 54 64
77 NA Drew Smyly 69 85 96 77
78 65 R.A. Dickey 58 60 83 129
79 83 Felipe Paulino 93 69 66 108
80 80 Philip Humber 99 80 92 66
81 88 Matt Harrison 92 88 109 51
82 NA Trevor Bauer 116 122 63 45
83 74 Juan Nicasio 89 72 98 93
84 99 James McDonald 101 96 77 87
85 96 Edinson Volquez 78 77 117 95
86 102 Jeff Niemann 79 66 93 131
87 NA Anthony Bass 74 78 159 65
88 75 Trevor Cahill 98 87 88 105
89 68 Mike Leake 97 105 74 104
90 120 Dillon Gee 105 84 125 68
91 79 Tommy Milone 90 95 76 123
92 101 Carlos Zambrano 80 92 107 110
93 113 Bartolo Colon 112 91 122 67
94 111 Kyle Lohse 81 103 136 72
95 132 Wei-Yin Chen 84 115 105 88
96 94 Ivan Nova 103 113 115 63
97 155 Tyler Skaggs 144 117 62 79
98 122 Joe Blanton 107 101 113 82
99 89 Jason Vargas 95 136 94 81
100 84 Randy Wolf 94 102 91 126
101 28 Cory Luebke 176 174 42 23
102 97 Aaron Harang 121 108 90 98
103 138 Jake Arrieta 85 89 147 99
104 81 Henderson Alvarez 96 114 110 106
105 91 Phil Hughes 100 86 87 153
106 105 Roy Oswalt 123 112 79 127
107 90 Luke Hochevar 118 142 97 86
108 112 Danny Duffy 148 81 114 100
109 174 Marco Estrada 108 93 118 124
110 69 Clay Buchholz 111 135 108 90
111 115 Jarrod Parker 82 116 155 96
112 150 Brett Anderson 87 94 133 143
113 73 Francisco Liriano 114 133 67 145
114 109 Brett Myers 68 65 158 173
115 116 Bronson Arroyo 125 104 121 115
116 108 Travis Wood 134 124 89 121
117 140 Brad Peacock 141 162 53 119
118 159 Ross Detwiler 106 98 175 97
119 93 Josh Tomlin 120 130 104 128
120 29 Chris Carpenter 66 63 177 178
121 110 Derek Lowe 124 131 116 114
122 158 Jorge de la Rosa 136 121 111 117
123 98 Jonathan Sanchez 122 150 84 133
124 144 Randall Delgado 113 97 165 116
125 92 Carl Pavano 119 129 100 147
126 128 Julio Teheran 110 160 126 103
127 125 Clayton Richard 127 109 142 122
128 147 Joe Saunders 152 110 123 118
129 127 Paul Maholm 138 125 130 111
130 145 J.A. Happ 131 111 127 138
131 152 Jake Westbrook 115 137 156 101
132 NA Hector Noesi 117 144 137 112
133 157 Jerome Williams 104 90 152 165
134 123 Chris Volstad 151 107 120 134
135 129 Jordan Lyles 128 119 132 136
136 59 Jhoulys Chacin 109 161 164 89
137 107 Rick Porcello 147 143 124 109
138 126 Randy Wells 137 123 131 135
139 164 Kevin Millwood 158 127 102 144
140 124 Hisashi Iwakuma 126 99 135 172
141 136 Barry Zito 130 140 153 113
142 117 Drew Pomeranz 149 118 146 132
143 137 Charlie Morton 139 126 145 137
144 134 Alexi Ogando 102 100 171 176
145 141 Blake Beavan 140 156 154 102
146 106 Jeremy Guthrie 162 152 112 130
147 119 Jeff Karstens 135 147 119 157
148 130 Brian Matusz 129 141 149 141
149 118 Bruce Chen 157 149 143 125
150 103 Brett Cecil 133 169 129 146
151 121 Javier Vazquez 150 179 80 169
152 82 Jair Jurrjens 132 163 134 154
153 149 Kevin Correia 143 138 141 161
154 156 Alex White 153 120 174 140
155 167 Kyle Drabek 145 128 172 142
156 163 Jason Marquis 146 154 168 120
157 146 Dallas Braden 142 148 140 158
158 100 Kevin Slowey 161 173 106 149
159 86 Josh Collmenter 160 170 103 156
160 169 Livan Hernandez 172 157 138 151
161 131 Wade Davis 167 153 128 171
162 151 Jacob Turner 155 164 163 139
163 95 Chris Narveson 180 176 95 170
164 165 Dustin McGowan 166 145 148 166
165 148 Dustin Moseley 154 139 160 174
166 114 Zach Britton 164 168 139 159
167 153 Nick Blackburn 156 151 161 162
168 143 Guillermo Moscoso 174 158 144 163
169 160 Chris Tillman 163 165 166 150
170 142 Chien-Ming Wang 169 155 167 155
171 135 John Lannan 168 171 162 148
172 166 Charlie Furbush 159 146 170 175
173 162 Nathan Eovaldi 165 166 169 152
174 161 Fausto Carmona 171 167 157 160
175 154 Freddy Garcia 170 172 150 164
176 168 Tyler Chatwood 173 159 173 167
177 104 Tsuyoshi Wada 179 178 179 168
178 22 Michael Pineda 177 175 176 177
179 45 Scott Baker 178 177 178 179
180 139 Mike Pelfrey 175 180 180 180





 

With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.

56 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Steve
14 years ago

Lance Lynn?

0
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
14 years ago
Reply to  Steve

working on it! thanks.

0
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
14 years ago
Reply to  Steve

Sorry it took so long. He’s in now.

0
lester bangs
14 years ago

Higher: Bumgarner (if you can trade Lester for Bumgarner, you do it instantly), Porcello, Dickey, Peavy, Parker.

Lower: Strasburg (IP coming, has trouble working deep in games), Morrow, Beckett, Moore, Bailey.

0
Mark
14 years ago

How is Garza not top 20, waino? Timmy? Lester? Same with J Zim

-1
lester bangs
14 years ago

I’m really surprised Lincecum isn’t lower, too. There’s an obvious case for his downside/disaster season that we didn’t have to worry about two months ago. There are so many names after him that you should take in a second in a 1-for-1 – and I bet you can’t even get them.

0
Johnny Come Lately
14 years ago

How did Ted Lilly drop 10 spots? That’s kind of insane. He’s been awesome all year. And that WHIP!

0
prankmunky
14 years ago
Reply to  Johnny Come Lately

Not quite as furious but still somewhat curious about that drop too.

1
Roger Goodell
14 years ago

Cueto has an ERA around 1

1
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
14 years ago
Reply to  Roger Goodell

It’s a rest-of-season rankings. Though I will admit I have no idea how Cueto managed to pitch to 156 innings of .250ish BABiP last year, I don’t think he’ll do it again all year this year.

1
Pete
14 years ago
Reply to  Roger Goodell

Agree about Cueto. His K numbers aren’t huge but he does lead the league in ERA going back to last season, with low BBs and a solid infield D behind him. Once the Reds offense gets rolling his Ws will be there too.

1
Milby
14 years ago

Did Jeff actually update his rankings? Some of these look severely out of place – the aforementioned Corey Luebke, Francisco Liriano, Brad Peacock, Justin Masterson, and Javier Vasquez(?!) to name a few.

2
Socrates
14 years ago
Reply to  Milby

… Detwiler, Naverson

1
junker23
14 years ago
Reply to  Milby

His rankings on a few of the other updates weren’t updated, either. Maybe he’s making a comment on how we shouldn’t be re-evaluating players just yet…but my guess is, just didn’t do his homework.

2
Socrates
14 years ago
Reply to  junker23

I get your point, but I somehow think that having Johan 50 spots behind Naverson because “we are better off sticking with our pre-draft projections than reacting to small sample sizes” is taking that argument to an absurd extreme.

By the way, count me in the camp of people that think you CAN start to judge pitchers after a 5th of the season has passed. For instance, Hochevar, Liriano, Colon, and Masterson should all be judged for the first 7 weeks of the season.

3
post
14 years ago
Reply to  Milby

The lack of updating decreases the value of this tremendously. Santana at 159?

4
GIO GONZALEZ
14 years ago

Gio Gonzalez at 26, seriously? You’d take Latos or Wainwright over him? Please.

2
Daniel
14 years ago
Reply to  GIO GONZALEZ

wait. you actually think 26 is low? I laugh.

1
juan pierres mustache
14 years ago

if your comment would have been ridiculous 4-6 weeks ago, you are probably being unduly influenced by a small sample size.

4
GIO GONZALEZ
14 years ago
Reply to  juan pierres mustache

Gio was ranked 33 before (too low) and just went from the AL to the NL. Latos moved to a less favorable park. Wainwright just doesn’t look like the old Wainwright (yet). You can call it small sample size, but I’ll think of it as 1.5 months of starts that confirm things that we should have known before the season started. I actually think your comments is ridiculous 4-6 weeks ago, now, and at all points in the future.

1
Socrates
14 years ago
Reply to  juan pierres mustache

I would say it was ridiculous to have had Wainwright at 19 coming off a missed season.

1
robert
14 years ago
Reply to  Socrates

Strasburg was at 15 coming off a lost season. Sure, he pitched a few games last year, but I don’t see what the difference is. Wainwrights peripherals are still good, and a 2.93 xFIP shows he’s been getting somewhat unlucky. He should be strong going forward.

1
Socrates
14 years ago
Reply to  Socrates

Fair point on Wainwright’s peripherals and Strasburg’s injury last year. I will say that for me, Strasburg proved he was healthy last september when he was one of the best starters in the league for that month. That said, I can see how some others might NOT have felt that.

0
juan pierres mustache
14 years ago
Reply to  juan pierres mustache

i guess i was responding more to the “Gio at 26? Pshaw!” tone of the comment than the content. it’s not out of the question that you’re correct, but unless you have different information than everyone else it’s pretty silly to take umbrage at the idea that gio might just possibly not be as good as he’s looked so far or that a post-TJ case like waino might take a couple months to return to form. admittedly, i do dislike latos. i also must admit that i found the idea that the results so far “confirm things that we should have known before the season started” is pretty funny, but maybe that’s just me. cheers!

0
yosoyfiesta
14 years ago

Strasser belongs in the top 5, aside from the pitching limit, there’s nothing stopping him from being a top 3 pitcher in baseball this year. Soon enough he’ll grab the torch from the good Dr. and be numero uno.

-1
NBH
14 years ago
Reply to  yosoyfiesta

As soon as draft day 2013 methinks

0
Socrates
14 years ago
Reply to  yosoyfiesta

On a per inning basis he is the best in baseball already.

Sure if he only has another 120 innings left, then he should be diminished (from #1), but considering Jeff Zimmerman ranked Naverson at 94 (when he will not pitch ANY more innings), I think that there is a place from Strasburg higher on the list.

0
ausmax
14 years ago
Reply to  Socrates

Strasburg has started 24 games in the majors. He’s been impressive in those 24 games, but it’s a little early to be proclaiming him the second coming of Roy Halladay. He easily *could* be the best pitcher in baseball, but it’s way too early in his career to be saying that now.

1
Socrates
14 years ago
Reply to  Socrates

Among qualifying pitchers, Strasburg has been the 2nd best in xFIP (behind Greinke), 3rd best in FIP (behind Greinke and Gio), and 1st in SIERRA. (5th best in ERA, BTW)

Like I said, I think he is the best pitcher on a per inning basis. That means that until he is shut down, he is the best pitcher in the league.

You can say he only has 24 starts, but those 24 starts are better than any other pitcher’s last 24 starts in baseball (by a sizable margin).

I think that we are at the point that we should stop denying that he is pitching on another level than the rest of the league.

0
ausmax
14 years ago
Reply to  Socrates

so you’re saying he’s clearly better than Greinke based on the fact that he hasn’t pitched as well as Grinke based on FIP or xFIP over the period of time we are considering even though Greinke has also proven that he capable of being an outstanding pitcher during other, longer sustained periods of his career and Strasburg has not?

I think you’re proving my point. 🙂

1
Socrates
14 years ago
Reply to  Socrates

I am sorry. I never said the Strasburg was “clearly” better than Greinke. I said that I “think” he is the best pitcher inning for inning. The difference in the data is very close so it isnt like one has been much better than the other. More that the two of them have both been awesome. Also, I would note that Greinke lags behind him a little bit in SIERRA.

I have pointed to evidence to prove that he is better than anyone (except MAYBE Greinke). You have pointed to absolutely nothing to prove that Strasburg is not one of the best. Unless you count pointing out his historically good first 24 starts as evidence that he is NOT good (!!??!!?).

So unless you prove … something (… really, just prove anything), then it is probably a waste of time for you to imply that I am proving your point. You can go and prove your original point that he is not the second coming of Halladay but as of now, you have not done that.

The point I am proving is that as of right now, the next 100 innings of Strasburg are likely to be better then the next 100 innings of any other pitcher.

0
ausmax
14 years ago
Reply to  Socrates

I guess my point is that I think it’s premature to assume that “Strasser belongs in the top 5” as the original poster said. He just hasn’t pitched enough innings for me to be convinced of that. Clearly you feel differently. I don’t feel as confident projecting Strasburg’s next 24 starts as I do projecting Halladay’s, there’s just a lot more data available in the latter case than there is in the former and hence more reason to project success.

Strasburg could very well be the best pitcher in baseball…he could also be the next Josh Johnson (great when he’s not injured). We frankly don’t have enough information to say either way at this point.

0
Socrates
14 years ago
Reply to  Socrates

I accept that as a possibility, but I think it is also important to note that Strasburg is throwing 96 MPH (pretty much as fast as he has ever thrown) and Halladay is showing diminished velocity entering his mid-30’s.

My money is on the 25 year old throwing in the high 90’s over the 35 year old throwing around 90.

0
AngMohClay
14 years ago
Reply to  Socrates

Wanted to chime in in support of the pro-Straus argument.

A few notes – first of all over the course of his last 24 starts he has been better than anyone else in baseball over a similar time frame. The Grienke side track to this argument is talking about Grienke’s FIP/XFIP this year, but Grienke’s FIP/XFIP last year over 28 starts was higher than his silly low consolidated peripheral metrics are right now. Stras’s career FIP/xFIP/SIERRA over a small sample size of 136 IP are 1.95/2.25/2.32. Those are absurd numbers, all three are lower than any pitchers full season mark in any of those categories in 2011, 2010 or 2009. He absolutely has been the best pitcher on a per inning basis in the time frame of his career.

Now 136 IP is not a large enough sample to be conclusive, but it’s far too large to be outright dismissed either. The two other things to look to are his stuff and his other stats. His stuff is awesome, either best SP stuff or 2nd to Verly – no worse than top 2. Let’s move on…

His minor league equivalencies in 2010 are 2.40/2.35 for FIP in AA/AAA. This adds another 53.1 IP of dominance over professional hitters. Again, something as opaque as MLEs shouldn’t ever be considered conclusive in it’s own right, but it’s further support that he is a dominant, crazy good SP.

The argument that he needs to learn to be more efficient is also a canard – he’s thrown 15.13 pitches/IP over his career – this is good for the 22nd fewest among SP during this time frame (244 pitchers). He’s been even lower over the past two years – 14.48 pit/IP in 2011-12. The only thing keeping him from going deep into games is the Nationals conseratism/slavish devotion to a flawed metric for player fatigue. As they back off the kid gloves on him, he’ll go deeper – it’s not like the guy isn’t efficient in how many pitches he throws per IP.

So the only things that keep him from being not just top 5, but maybe even top 1 are an IP limitation (which is unclear what that will be), and the very real kid glove treatment he gets from the Nats (which is what keeps him from going deep into games, not inefficiency). Those do absolutely dimish his 2012 fantasy value, but I’d still take him over every pitcher outside of the top 5. Replacement value a large number of leagues (particularly where there is no limitation on the number of moves) is pretty good for SP because you can usually find mediocre guys with good matchups. In not too deep leagues you should be able to beat a 4 ERA 1.3 WHIP and 6 K/9 by cherry picking the right guys, and I’ll take 120-140 Stras innings combined with 40 replacement starter IP over guys like Haren, CC, Felix, Shields. Gets tough with guys like Weaver, Hamels and Grienke, and the IP/usage definitely keeps him out of the top 5, but the SSS argument against Strasburg is getting more absurd by the start.

2
shmmrname
14 years ago

Peavy sure looks legit. That’s for sure. But, I wonder how he moved 20 spots, and J. Santana actually dropped. Both have health concerns. Both play for poor teams. And, both have excelled despite those potential flaws. I assume that both should move up slightly, as they’ve at least proven both effective and healthy in the short-term. So, where’s the disconnect that rockets one up and actually somehow stalls the other?

And, I would like to reiterate the Lilly comments. He’s an open-book at this point, but I don’t see the point in penalizing him for over-performing. I understand not buying into the hot start. But, I don’t understand swinging his value negatively because of it. By that logic, all those that have hit obstacles this early in the year, should automatically get a ratings bump because of the expected massive correction.

0
stefangfg
14 years ago

Henderson Alvarez drops outside top 100? DIPs theory obviously has a stranglehold on your guys. There are exceptions for elite GB% pitchers who are backed by excellent IFs. And do you really think his K rate will stay this low? 5 plus for career, and I think it will regress to that. HR/FB rate is 15% … doubtful that won’t come down. BBs will likely come down as well. I think we’re looking at a 3.8 1.20 floor for the guy and a 3.4 1.15 ceiling. That’s top 70. That said I am sitting him this week vs TB.

0
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
14 years ago
Reply to  stefangfg

I liked him the best, but boy I don’t understand how he doesn’t get more strikeouts and whiffs with his stuff. And even if you think that GB guys are useful in real life, strikeouts are a 5×5 category and his value will hurt because of it.

0
stefangfg
14 years ago
Reply to  Eno Sarris

I’m 4X4 without Ks, so obviously he’s more valuable to me than others. What about his stuff makes you think he can’t regress to his 6K per 9 career rate? Or at least regress to 5? Nasty sinking action in the mid 90s. That’s plus stuff, no? I mean he needs to master another pitch or two , but …

I did notice his Fstrike % is bordering on great (63.3% 11/12). Are there any studies out there that on the value of Fstrike? Another thing, Jays pitching coach has been emphasizing pitch to contact all year. Morrow etc seem to be heeding the lesson. Would love to read a “pitch to contact” top down pitching strategy dissection.

0
Big JgkeMember since 2020
14 years ago
Reply to  Eno Sarris

Brandon Webb was pretty valuable as a high IP, good ratio, low K pitcher for a few seasons there, I seem to remember.

0
mike
14 years ago

I think the Anibal ranking looks a little low. K/9 over 10, fip and xfip under 3. NL east appears to be a fairly weak division for offense. Of the guys above him, I would at least take him over Morrow, Hanson, Darvish, and maybe Latos. I assume there must be some discount for injury, but that doesn’t explain Hanson outranking him.

Good list though, thanks gents!

-1
Gus
14 years ago

One guy has Gio at 38 and one guy has him at 18 – how are we supposed to leverage that into useful information. LOL

-2
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
14 years ago
Reply to  Gus

There’s likely a guy in your league that likes him in the top twenty and another that doesn’t trust him as much? And that the true talent might lie in between?

that seems the point of consensus ranks at least.

2
juan pierres mustache
14 years ago
Reply to  Gus

eno, if you guys could just get together and agree on consensus ranks so that you guys are all on the same page before you rank the guys that would be great. thanks much!

3
cs3
14 years ago
Reply to  juan pierres mustache

the point is that they DONT agree.
seems perfectly fine to me.

1
V
14 years ago
Reply to  Gus

Between 23 and 59 on Scherzer, that’s a bit of a gap.

Btw, I bought Scherzer from a guy that had him valued as a “59” and I value him as a top 20, so Eno’s post probably vibes with reality.

0
TD
14 years ago

Why is Bud norris so high?

0
MustBunique
14 years ago

“Sober and difficult to budge.”

Indeed. I was frustrated with this entire series for not rewarding guys who have had solid starts as much as I would have. After stepping back and thinking about it, what this series really shows us is that although an individual’s opinion of a player may change quickly, the value of the player as a collection of all opinions is rather static over the given time period. Still frustrating, but this may stop me from assigning my own value to players instead of the overall or collective value when trading. Maybe.

0
Johan Santa
14 years ago

Yes it’s hard to make these lists, yes it’s still a small sample size, yes everyone looks for their favorite guys and complains when they drop. But the one that’s totally mystifying to me is Johan Santana. He’s pitching effectively, beyond what anyone could have expected of him. He doesn’t give up many runs and racks up K’s. He’s a health risk, but we knew that coming into the season. So far he’s been a top 30 pitcher (on a per inning basis at least). Yet he still drops in the rankings because one guy put him at 151. Better have Zimmerman double check his list.

0
curious about RA
14 years ago

RA Dickey seemed to have a major split, with scores of 58, 60, 82, and 119. Can we get a bit more information on the thinking/argument there?

0
GVeers
14 years ago

I would like to see an article on how much we trust ZiPS RoS. I understand very few things have stabilized at this point but ZiPS certainly isn’t shy of value swings. For example Johan Santa was projected with a 3.62 FIP in the beginning of the season and now has a 3.29 RoS. That is not insignificant. Bryan LaHair is another guy that ZiPS RoS loves but got little movement in the rankings.

It seems to me there are two possibilities – ZiPS is out to lunch, or these rankings need to be a little more reactionary in some cases. Right now I tend to trust ZiPS more for RoS analysis, simply because it’s grounded more in numbers and consistency.

1
sfjb
14 years ago

Lance Lynn nowhere to be found?

0
Gus
14 years ago

Dan Haren way way too high and he’s a first half pitcher, having a bad first half. Sell !

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Gus
14 years ago

Where can I find xFIP stats for pitchers.?
thanks

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JoeB51982
14 years ago

Anyone else realize Jaime Garcia’s velocity is down this year? I know he never had a big fastball, but could maintain a low 90’s mph heater. He’s not even touching 90 mph that much. His K’s are down and he seems to give up a good number of hits and his WHIP suffers as a result. So I feel he could be injured or something is wrong mechanically. That being said, I have been riding Drew Smyly’s hot start and I assume a regression is in order for him and looking to move on. The aforementioned Garcia is avaiable in my league, but Billingsley, Minor, McDonald, Feliz, and EJax are there as well. Going by this list Garcia would be the pick, but my corncerns have been stated previously. Any thoughts or suggestions? My league is H2H and has HR allowed and K/BB as additional categories.

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Shaun Catron
14 years ago

Haren is severely overrated here. Possibly back problems, mediocre stuff so far, no run support in his starts.

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Jason B
14 years ago
Reply to  Shaun Catron

Yeah, that lack of run support is totally Haren’s fault. He should take the bat out of Albert’s hands and pinch-hit for him by force, or bludgeon him with it and send him to the DL since he’s stinking up the joint. Or put out his own money to sign some more/better hitters? Maybe make out his own lineup cards and rip up the ones Scoscia puts out?

Man, there are so many options available to Haren to increase his own run support, and he hasn’t done any of them!! Iit’s like he doesn’t even care…

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