Updated Consensus Ranks: Starting Pitchers

by
May 14, 2012

We’ve finally come to the end of this long dance, and it feels good. The hope all along was not to impose our belief system on anyone with these rankings, but to show what a projections-based ranking system would look like: sober and difficult to budge. After all, true talent changes much less often than results do.

As for the major disagreements, they seemed to surround a few issues.

1) The injured player. This is such a guesstimate. How long will Cory Luebke be out, for example? Even with players like Mike Morse that have a supposed time table, there are questions about his production when he returns. A projection-based system might ding him for the missed time, but it will have difficulty reducing production based on whatever injury the player has. Even a little subjectivity makes this difficult.

2) The oft-injured player. In these rankings, Josh Johnson might play the role of Josh Hamilton: the player whose rest-of-season 5×5 production would be more useful if it didn’t include likely missed time. For the most part, health looks like an age-related skill — some players get hurt more often, and past health is definitely factored into projections. A breakout player who plays three-quarters of the time gets a ding.

3) The breakout player. There are breakouts, they do exist. There are also crazy months. There are more of the latter than the former, and so our sobriety reflects a tiny bit of cynicism regarding breakouts. We aren’t straight-jacketed by our projections, either — each analyst has his own mix of subjectivity and projections, after all, and even the choice of projections is rooted in subjectivity, and every fantasy ranking list is subjective in some fashion — but when there’s little warning for a breakout, we’re more likely to be suspicious of it than perhaps anyone.

That said, pitchers might have the easiest path towards rapid improvement or decline. Pitchers have peripherals that are harbingers of both — velocity, swinging strike rate, change in pitching mix — and when a young (or new) pitcher like Yu Darvish or Brandon Beachy shows good news in those areas, we’re just as likely as anyone to move them.

So let’s take a look at the starters.

FanGraphs Consensus Rankings:
Starting Pitchers
New Last Player Name Eno Sarris Mike Podhorzer Jeff Zimmerman Zach Sanders
1 1 Roy Halladay 1 1 2 2
2 3 Clayton Kershaw 2 3 1 1
3 2 Cliff Lee 3 2 3 4
4 4 Justin Verlander 4 4 4 3
5 5 Zack Greinke 8 6 5 6
6 6 Felix Hernandez 5 8 6 7
7 9 Cole Hamels 6 7 7 8
8 10 CC Sabathia 7 5 12 10
9 8 Jered Weaver 9 9 13 5
10 11 Dan Haren 10 10 9 15
11 12 James Shields 11 11 11 13
12 15 Stephen Strasburg 15 13 14 11
13 7 Tim Lincecum 14 12 8 19
14 13 David Price 12 15 17 12
15 16 Matt Cain 13 14 29 9
16 17 Yovani Gallardo 18 17 10 32
17 27 Yu Darvish 22 20 15 21
18 23 Brandon Beachy 19 23 16 24
19 14 Jon Lester 20 16 19 27
20 19 Adam Wainwright 16 18 32 20
21 21 Ian Kennedy 25 28 20 14
22 26 Matt Garza 21 22 22 22
23 30 C.J. Wilson 17 26 31 16
24 18 Mat Latos 26 19 18 34
25 20 Madison Bumgarner 24 24 26 26
26 33 Gio Gonzalez 23 38 25 18
27 24 Josh Johnson 28 27 33 17
28 36 Brandon Morrow 31 29 21 41
29 34 Tommy Hanson 30 36 28 39
30 37 Anibal Sanchez 29 35 30 43
31 32 Shaun Marcum 32 32 44 30
32 25 Daniel Hudson 27 44 24 47
33 38 Jordan Zimmerman 35 37 39 33
34 42 Colby Lewis 37 30 27 52
35 40 Jaime Garcia 34 31 51 35
36 39 Ricky Romero 33 52 43 28
37 31 Josh Beckett 48 25 36 48
38 49 Derek Holland 39 41 49 36
39 35 Max Scherzer 51 33 23 62
40 46 Wandy Rodriguez 38 53 41 38
41 NA Matt Moore 36 21 59 61
42 55 Bud Norris 45 59 38 49
43 51 Johnny Cueto 44 51 64 37
44 44 Tim Hudson 41 49 78 31
45 52 Gavin Floyd 53 55 40 54
46 47 Jeremy Hellickson 43 47 75 42
47 61 Ryan Dempster 42 45 37 84
48 48 Doug Fister 61 67 56 25
49 53 Brandon McCarthy 40 70 60 40
50 NA Jeff Samardzija 57 39 70 55
51 NA Chris Sale 50 40 71 60
52 50 Ervin Santana 52 50 46 73
53 64 Vance Worley 47 83 65 29
54 71 Edwin Jackson 60 71 50 44
55 60 Mike Minor 56 54 58 57
56 77 Jake Peavy 77 42 61 46
57 43 Ted Lilly 55 34 47 91
58 58 Ricky Nolasco 54 61 35 78
59 66 Chad Billingsley 49 74 48 58
60 67 Jonathon Niese 59 58 52 71
61 57 John Danks 70 57 45 76
62 54 Hiroki Kuroda 71 48 57 75
63 87 A.J. Burnett 67 64 68 59
64 NA Lance Lynn 62 75 73 80
65 62 Johan Santana 46 46 151 50
66 70 Chris Capuano 64 68 55 107
67 76 Homer Bailey 76 62 69 92
68 85 Erik Bedard 73 76 81 70
69 133 Jason Hammel 91 43 101 69
70 78 Ryan Vogelsong 65 106 86 53
71 63 Tim Stauffer 72 82 82 74
72 41 Ubaldo Jimenez 63 134 34 83
73 72 Mark Buehrle 88 73 99 56
74 NA Neftali Feliz 83 79 72 85
75 NA Daniel Bard 86 56 85 94
76 56 Justin Masterson 75 132 54 64
77 NA Drew Smyly 69 85 96 77
78 65 R.A. Dickey 58 60 83 129
79 83 Felipe Paulino 93 69 66 108
80 80 Philip Humber 99 80 92 66
81 88 Matt Harrison 92 88 109 51
82 NA Trevor Bauer 116 122 63 45
83 74 Juan Nicasio 89 72 98 93
84 99 James McDonald 101 96 77 87
85 96 Edinson Volquez 78 77 117 95
86 102 Jeff Niemann 79 66 93 131
87 NA Anthony Bass 74 78 159 65
88 75 Trevor Cahill 98 87 88 105
89 68 Mike Leake 97 105 74 104
90 120 Dillon Gee 105 84 125 68
91 79 Tommy Milone 90 95 76 123
92 101 Carlos Zambrano 80 92 107 110
93 113 Bartolo Colon 112 91 122 67
94 111 Kyle Lohse 81 103 136 72
95 132 Wei-Yin Chen 84 115 105 88
96 94 Ivan Nova 103 113 115 63
97 155 Tyler Skaggs 144 117 62 79
98 122 Joe Blanton 107 101 113 82
99 89 Jason Vargas 95 136 94 81
100 84 Randy Wolf 94 102 91 126
101 28 Cory Luebke 176 174 42 23
102 97 Aaron Harang 121 108 90 98
103 138 Jake Arrieta 85 89 147 99
104 81 Henderson Alvarez 96 114 110 106
105 91 Phil Hughes 100 86 87 153
106 105 Roy Oswalt 123 112 79 127
107 90 Luke Hochevar 118 142 97 86
108 112 Danny Duffy 148 81 114 100
109 174 Marco Estrada 108 93 118 124
110 69 Clay Buchholz 111 135 108 90
111 115 Jarrod Parker 82 116 155 96
112 150 Brett Anderson 87 94 133 143
113 73 Francisco Liriano 114 133 67 145
114 109 Brett Myers 68 65 158 173
115 116 Bronson Arroyo 125 104 121 115
116 108 Travis Wood 134 124 89 121
117 140 Brad Peacock 141 162 53 119
118 159 Ross Detwiler 106 98 175 97
119 93 Josh Tomlin 120 130 104 128
120 29 Chris Carpenter 66 63 177 178
121 110 Derek Lowe 124 131 116 114
122 158 Jorge de la Rosa 136 121 111 117
123 98 Jonathan Sanchez 122 150 84 133
124 144 Randall Delgado 113 97 165 116
125 92 Carl Pavano 119 129 100 147
126 128 Julio Teheran 110 160 126 103
127 125 Clayton Richard 127 109 142 122
128 147 Joe Saunders 152 110 123 118
129 127 Paul Maholm 138 125 130 111
130 145 J.A. Happ 131 111 127 138
131 152 Jake Westbrook 115 137 156 101
132 NA Hector Noesi 117 144 137 112
133 157 Jerome Williams 104 90 152 165
134 123 Chris Volstad 151 107 120 134
135 129 Jordan Lyles 128 119 132 136
136 59 Jhoulys Chacin 109 161 164 89
137 107 Rick Porcello 147 143 124 109
138 126 Randy Wells 137 123 131 135
139 164 Kevin Millwood 158 127 102 144
140 124 Hisashi Iwakuma 126 99 135 172
141 136 Barry Zito 130 140 153 113
142 117 Drew Pomeranz 149 118 146 132
143 137 Charlie Morton 139 126 145 137
144 134 Alexi Ogando 102 100 171 176
145 141 Blake Beavan 140 156 154 102
146 106 Jeremy Guthrie 162 152 112 130
147 119 Jeff Karstens 135 147 119 157
148 130 Brian Matusz 129 141 149 141
149 118 Bruce Chen 157 149 143 125
150 103 Brett Cecil 133 169 129 146
151 121 Javier Vazquez 150 179 80 169
152 82 Jair Jurrjens 132 163 134 154
153 149 Kevin Correia 143 138 141 161
154 156 Alex White 153 120 174 140
155 167 Kyle Drabek 145 128 172 142
156 163 Jason Marquis 146 154 168 120
157 146 Dallas Braden 142 148 140 158
158 100 Kevin Slowey 161 173 106 149
159 86 Josh Collmenter 160 170 103 156
160 169 Livan Hernandez 172 157 138 151
161 131 Wade Davis 167 153 128 171
162 151 Jacob Turner 155 164 163 139
163 95 Chris Narveson 180 176 95 170
164 165 Dustin McGowan 166 145 148 166
165 148 Dustin Moseley 154 139 160 174
166 114 Zach Britton 164 168 139 159
167 153 Nick Blackburn 156 151 161 162
168 143 Guillermo Moscoso 174 158 144 163
169 160 Chris Tillman 163 165 166 150
170 142 Chien-Ming Wang 169 155 167 155
171 135 John Lannan 168 171 162 148
172 166 Charlie Furbush 159 146 170 175
173 162 Nathan Eovaldi 165 166 169 152
174 161 Fausto Carmona 171 167 157 160
175 154 Freddy Garcia 170 172 150 164
176 168 Tyler Chatwood 173 159 173 167
177 104 Tsuyoshi Wada 179 178 179 168
178 22 Michael Pineda 177 175 176 177
179 45 Scott Baker 178 177 178 179
180 139 Mike Pelfrey 175 180 180 180





 

With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.

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Steve
11 years ago

Lance Lynn?

0
Eno Sarrismember
11 years ago
Reply to  Steve

working on it! thanks.

0
Eno Sarrismember
11 years ago
Reply to  Steve

Sorry it took so long. He’s in now.

0