Updated Consensus Ranks: Shortstop
Shortstops are the red-headed stepchildren of the offense, but this year, catastrophic injury has stayed away. Oops, jinxed. You can blame the next one on me.
Early changes in contact rate and batted ball mix are the first to become reliable, so look there for possible reasoning. Speed is a tricky thing, too — it’s such an athletic skill that sensing a slight decline early in the season might just be enough to worry about their wheels. Unfortunately, we haven’t yet seen a study that points out a harbinger for a speed loss (could Bill James‘ speed score become reliable in a third of a season perhaps?).
Questions for another time. For now, your Updated RotoGraphs Rest-of-Season Consensus Shorstop Rankings ™.
Once again the top of the table remains the same. Like with the second basemen before, it’s unlikely that the reasoning that put those players at the top of the rankings has changed much after the first month. It is strange to see Jose Reyes ranked third by the entire group and yet end up second. Blame Zach Sanders for that, I guess.
Asdrubal Cabrera is picking up where he left off in the power department, but it might just be the contact rate that is providing the most hope. Dee Gordon could be striking out less than he is — his contact rate is above average — and he could have better BABIP luck, but he’s come with as little power as advertised, and if the batting average isn’t going to be there… at least he’s stealing bases.
The biggest riser award goes to Mike Aviles, but Jed Lowrie and Derek Jeter would like to say “What’s up.” That’s role, body-related health, and age-related health as your reasons for those upticks, most likely. And really, the most likely of those three reasons to hold steady all year is the one that pushed Aviles up in the rankings. The Red Sox will find a way to use him all year.
What sticks out for you?
| Fangraphs Consensus Rankings Shortstop |
||||||
| New | Last | Player Name | Eno Sarris | Mike Podhorzer | Jeff Zimmerman | Zach Sanders |
| 1 | 1 | Troy Tulowitzki | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | Jose Reyes | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 3 | 3 | Hanley Ramirez | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | 4 | Starlin Castro | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| 5 | 6 | Asdrubal Cabrera | 5 | 6 | 6 | 4 |
| 6 | 5 | Elvis Andrus | 6 | 8 | 5 | 5 |
| 7 | 10 | Derek Jeter | 8 | 9 | 8 | 7 |
| 8 | 7 | Jimmy Rollins | 7 | 5 | 10 | 11 |
| 9 | 8 | Dee Gordon | 9 | 7 | 7 | 10 |
| 10 | 15 | Emilio Bonifacio | 11 | 10 | 12 | 8 |
| 11 | 9 | Alexei Ramirez | 10 | 11 | 9 | 13 |
| 12 | 13 | J.J. Hardy | 12 | 13 | 16 | 12 |
| 13 | 11 | Erick Aybar | 14 | 15 | 11 | 14 |
| 14 | 12 | Jhonny Peralta | 13 | 12 | 17 | 15 |
| 15 | 14 | Yunel Escobar | 18 | 14 | 14 | 16 |
| 16 | 17 | Zack Cozart | 15 | 19 | 15 | 17 |
| 17 | 26 | Mike Aviles | 16 | 20 | 22 | 9 |
| 18 | 16 | Ian Desmond | 19 | 17 | 13 | 20 |
| 19 | 18 | Marco Scutaro | 17 | 16 | 19 | 18 |
| 20 | 20 | Alcides Escobar | 21 | 18 | 18 | 21 |
| 21 | 22 | Rafael Furcal | 22 | 23 | 21 | 13 |
| 22 | 25 | Jed Lowrie | 20 | 21 | 25 | 23 |
| 23 | 21 | Cliff Pennington | 23 | 24 | 20 | 27 |
| 24 | 19 | Stephen Drew | 22 | 25 | 23 | 26 |
| 25 | 23 | Tyler Pastornicky | 24 | 22 | 26 | 28 |
| 26 | 30 | Alexi Casilla | 27 | 27 | 31 | 19 |
| 27 | 27 | Sean Rodriguez | 26 | 28 | 24 | 30 |
| 28 | 24 | Jason Bartlett | 25 | 26 | 28 | 31 |
| 29 | 28 | Jamey Carroll | 29 | 32 | 27 | 24 |
| 30 | 29 | Ruben Tejada | 30 | 30 | 29 | 25 |
| 31 | 32 | Clint Barmes | 28 | 29 | 32 | 32 |
| 32 | 33 | Ryan Theriot | 31 | 31 | 33 | 29 |
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
What settings is this list for, standard 5×5? Where Jeter will outproduce 3 of 6 6 SS’s ranked ahead of him? Or an OBP/SLG league, where he would be even MORE valuable? Or the Tango point system, where he is again… more valuable… Just confused…
AND… How does Reyes get a free pass on his ticking time-bomb of a hamstring? Anyone who owns him should be selling him ASAP, just like last year.
You’re putting a lot of weight on some old legs in Jeter.
As for Reyes, he’s had healthy years too. You’re right that it’s a crapshoot, but selling him means taking a ding for that potential too. Might as well hold on for dear life.
I see it as putting faith where faith is deserved. How much time has Jeter ever really missed? He has been nothing short of amazing since the ASB last year and is showing no signs of slowing. I think he could actually be completely healthy for the first time in years.
Reyes doesn’t deserve it. He has a 3 month shelf life every season, and then the “oh look reyes hurt his hammy again” article come pouring in saying “i told you that you should have sold him healthy”.
Asdrubal and Andrus can be productive, but both require a BABIP north of .300 to make it work… I’m not betting on that.
Castro needs a .350 BABIP and never walks… no thanks.
“ROI” says Jeter got snubbed.
I know these are “consensus” rankings and not your responsibility to defend… but the rankings are a mish-mash of health + repeatable production that doesn’t seem to make sense.
reyes got paid and now he gets to coast. last night, game was tied 2-2, top 8. reyes comes to plate with one out man on first versus wilton lopez i think, first pitch swinging, GIDP. why? because he doesn’t care. saw only 11 pitches in his 4 at bats last night. booooooo. always been an avoid player personally.
I’m pretty sure no one ever accused Reyes of hustling… ever.
In my league, which is a points league spin-off from the old stats, inc. leagues, Ruben Tejada is ranked 14th. I understand most of the readership isn’t in such leagues.
He’s also tied for 8th in ss WAR and he’s 8th in ss wRC+. And number 1 in face plants running to first. And a lot of his value is batting average driven, but he does make contact, and albeit no home runs, he’s been a doubles machine this year.
I can understand why he’s 30th here, and he’s hurt.
Whoops. he used to make contact. What’s up with his 20% K rate this year? Also, he walked more when he was batting 8th, naturally. I guess the babip faerie is smiling on him.
All these Fangraphs rankings are AWFUL, seriously
Dee Gordon 9th ?
Alexei 11th ?
Lowrie 22th ?
just curious–is dee gordon too high or too low at 9?
also, how does one pronounce 22th? twenty-tooth?
erick aybar is KILLING me. no steals, no xbh, no walks, too many Ks. BABIP can’t explain it all, can it?
i’ve been rolling with aviles in a 5×5 roto league since i had to dump aybar – he’s been miserable, added lowrie instead. the multiple eligibility is great and neither’s going to be any worse than aybar. worst case, if aybar heats up he can be added again. i don’t think my league is the only one with him on waivers.
Jed Lowrie at 22 seems a little low to me. Even if you guys are taking injury history into account (Reyes at 2?), there aren’t 21 shortstops who have a brighter outlook than Lowrie. Sure he doesn’t run, but he projects to be a strong contributor in AVG. There will be RBI/runs from hitting in the middle of the order and the power he’s flashed is a nice bonus.
Zips sees .271/12/45/43/2 over 383 PAs. If he stays healthy enough to reach a conservative 600PAs, we’re looking at .271/19/70/67/5. That’s top 5 production from a very thin position.
He’s already out of the running for 600 PAs since he’s already been hurt. So I feel comfortable using something closer to the ZiPs number than faitcasting him into a full healthy season when he hasn’t done that yet.
Just from a practical standpoint – I had some injuries and needed to add a SS to my roster. I already had Erick Aybar, but didn’t feel comfortable using him since he’s 1. sucked, 2. moved way down in the order after the Trout promotion, so I dropped him. It hurt because I used a decently high pick to get him, but I thought about it – he’s not a 10-HR hitter like he was last year. If he’s not stealing 25+ bases, what is he really worth? Alcides Escobar will give you the same power, more SB and a lower average and he’s available in nearly every league. At 5-7 HR and <25 SB, Aybar is basically a replacement level fantasy shortstop, even if you assume he'll hit over .285. The only reason to have a guy like that in your fantasy lineup is if the rest of your team is filled with low average, high counting stat guys like C. Young, Upton, Dunn, etc. And even then, it's not a great look.
On waivers, there were Desmond, Yunel and Lowrie. I took Lowrie without so much as a second thought. The batting average will be in Aybar's ballpark, the power should sit somewhere between 10-15 and with his spot in the heart of Houston's order, R should be competitive while RBI could be nearly double.
And depending on your roster depth, Lowrie makes a great spot-play even on teams with better SS/3B options. He's a career .319/.917 hitter against lefties with 13 HR in 298 career AB. If he's playing a lefty, the only SS on the list better than him is probably Tulo.
Out of a vacuum and in a real 5×5 roto fantasy league, I'd have Lowrie rated around 10-11, ahead of Alexei and in the same tier as Rollins and Hardy. Thinking in terms of roster spots and start/sit decisions, I'd take him over anyone else on that list.
On
elviis goes down after his TORRID start? thats absurd. this kid is new. hes almost a .300 lock who is getting a ton of walks. and of course he’ll steal a ton, and if you count runs, he’ll easily surpass 100.
Where does Kyle Seager fit in this ranking? I know he’s playing 3B primarily for the Mariners but he’s SS-eligible several places.
WHAT NO BRANDON CRAWFORD!?
WHAT NO EDUARDO ESCOBAR?
Just picked up Lowrie yesterday. Was getting nowhere with Aybar or Escobar.
Furcal at 21? He of the .340/.400/.500 slash line? The leadoff hitter for one of the top lineups in the league? I understand this ranking reflects ROS projections, but do you really think it’s likely he’ll underperform Ian Desmond and Marco Scutaro?
I agree. I’m very happy with the production I’ve gotten out of Furcal this year. The only thing I can think of that would put him this low is that he seems to be an injury risk each year.
Dee Gordon ranked too high Bonifacio too low.
Zack Cozart? is the consensus thinking that he is going to regress some for the rest of the season? It seems to me that he is Aybar with more power/less speed and younger. Seems to be fitting in nicely in current sitch in Cincy