The Prospects Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Eric Cross

Strategy Section

• How important is it for fantasy redraft players to be aware of prospects?
  • Does it differ for hitters vs. pitchers?
  • Is it more important to know about prospects pre-draft or during the season?
• Royce Lewis
  • What is Minnesota’s positional plan for him?
• Struggling Prospects
  • How much did the missed 2020 season play into this year’s struggling prospect crop?
    • How does it change how you approach prospects for fantasy in 2022?
• Top prospects in baseball & top impact prospects for 2022
  • Corbin Carroll
  • Robert Hassell III
  • Cal Mitchell
  • Riley Greene
  • C.J. Abrams
  • Adley Rutschman
  • Grayson Rodriguez
  • Noelvi Marte
  • Jordan Walker
  • Triston Casas
  • Vinnie Pasquantino
  • Miguel Vargas

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The Dynasty Top 130 can be found on the Fantasy tab of THE BOARD or by clicking here.

Prospects have become increasingly important to winning re-draft fantasy leagues. Of course, they have always been major in-season acquisitions, but now they’re making their presence felt at the draft table, too. With more fantasy managers aware of the prospects who are likely to make an impact in a given season, the battle for their services has become much more fevered, leading some managers to stash desirable prospects for a month or two rather than try to pluck them off the wire once they are called up and risk missing out.

These 27 guys aren’t draftable in every format, but I wanted to cast a wide net so that the list has utility across many formats. All of them should be in the majors for a substantial portion of the 2022 season. It is worth familiarizing yourself with them so you are ready to bid on the ones who aren’t draftable in your particular league.

These rankings are now available on The Board on the 2022 Fantasy Rankings tab, where you can also see the Top 130 Dynasty Rankings!

The average draft position (ADP) included is from Draft Champions leagues from January 20 to February 20 at the NFBC, which you can find here. These leagues draft 50 players and that’s all they get for the year — no pickups or drops. That means all the relevant prospects get selected, which helps give us an idea of how the market views them.

Hitters

Bobby Witt Jr. | SS, KCR | 90 ADP
The market is remarkably excited for Witt, making him a consistent top 100 pick in winter drafts. From a talent perspective, it’s easy to understand why. A dominant effort at Double- and Triple-A saw Witt come up just shy of an insane 30/30/100/100 season, as he hit .290/.361/.576 with 33 HR, 29 SB, 97 RBI, and 99 R in 564 PA. There is some swing-and-miss to his game that will likely be exposed at the big-league level, but his power and speed are remarkably tantalizing for many fantasy managers. The question is when will Witt debut? We don’t know for certain, especially with the CBA in limbo during the lockout, but the consensus seems to be that he will be up within the first month of the season, leaving more than enough time to make a substantial impact. Read the rest of this entry »

The September Prospects Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: James Anderson

Strategy Section

Prospects

• Guaging which teams will showcase prospects
• Positions and service time manipulation
• The affect of COVID in 2020 on prospects in 2021
• Will there be another Randy Arozarena in 2021?
• Impact prospects for 2022

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

Prospect Discussion

• Bobby Witt Jr.
  • How will the KC Royals allign their defense in future years?
• Julio Rodriguez
• Jarred Kelenic
• Adley Rutschman
  • Catchers – High prospect failure rates
• Keibert Ruiz
• Jo Adell
• Jarren Duran
• Alex Kirilloff
• Max Meyer
• Nolan Gorman

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We are entering the dog days of the season and this season is of course particularly unique because we’re coming off the pandemic year. The dog days could hit harder than normal and have teams pushing hard for reinforcements to ensure their major league arms can get to the finish line of the regular season and beyond if they are contenders. Here are five guys who be called up (or back up) to make a late-season impact.

Joe Ryan | MIN – 35% K, 5% BB, 3.63 ERA, 0.79 WHIP in 57 IP

Ryan was in the Nelson Cruz deal and though the Twins are toast for the year, they should still consider giving the 25-year-old righty a look soon. Brilliant command of his fastball has fueled elite K%-BB% all the way up the minor league ladder along with being a bit old for each level, too. He fared pretty well for Team USA in the Olympics, too, with 10 K and 1 BB in 4.7 IP. It’s time to see if this heater is going to find MLB success and if they turn him loose, he could be a nice SP pickup in a lot of formats.

Aaron Ashby | MIL – 36% K, 12% BB, 4.48 ERA, 1.38 WHIP in 62.3 IP

Ashby made his debut earlier this year and it didn’t go well, allowing seven runs (four earned) on four hits and three walks while getting just two outs. He struggled in his first two outings back in Triple-A after the debut, but then settled down with a 2.08 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 38 K, and 6 BB in 21.7 IP. He is actually back today (Tuesday, August 10th) for the doubleheader against the Cubs and could be a key piece to helping Milwaukee rest the three aces down the stretch. This is a volatile profile, but the huge strikeout ability gives him some real upside.

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This is a fun time of year for fantasy prospects. Guys are getting traded left and right, creating conversations about players like Ezequiel Duran who otherwise might have been ignored (0.291% rostered in Ottoneu right now and being auctioned in one league). Those trades are also opening up space for other players to get a shot – might we see Andres Gimenez back in Cleveland soon?

At the same time, the players selected in the draft a few weeks back are starting to sign, making them eligible to be added in Ottoneu leagues. It’s no surprise that the current leader in live auctions right now (he is being added in nearly 60 leagues) is Jack Leiter, who was just added to the Ottoneu player pool Wednesday afternoon. Henry Davis has been added in more than 10% of leagues. Marcelo Mayer has been added in nearly 7% of leagues. The tough call is what to do with these guys if they are free agents or up for auction in your leagues.

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The top prospects just keep on coming! On Friday when baseball returned after the all-star break, the Red Sox recalled their third best prospect and 55th overall ranked prospect, Jarren Duran. Then on Sunday, the Angels recalled their top prospect and ninth overall ranked prospect, Brandon Marsh. Let’s dive into each of their statistical records and investigate their chances of fantasy success this year.

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With five of the top 50 preseason top prospects now in the Majors, let’s review their performances and discuss their rest of season outlooks.

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Streaming pitchers is an art form in the fantasy baseball community. Analysts making streamer picks are daring and brave when it comes to putting their picks out there for the world to see. It’s not an easy game. Streaming a pitcher who blows up my ratios is one of the most frustrating aspects of fantasy baseball in my humble opinion, but it happens (don’t act like it doesn’t). But, taking the time to deep dive on a pitcher before streaming can limit the likelihood of having your ratios inflated like a grocery store helium balloon. Here’s how you can take some time with our pitch-type linear weights.

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Yesterday, I perused the Triple-A SwStk% leaderboard and listed and discussed the AL starting pitchers who were at the top. Now let’s flip over to the NL, which unfortunately is a far less exciting group.

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Over the last two days, I have listed and discussed the Triple-A starting pitchers who appear atop the strikeout rate leaderboards, in both the AL and the NL. You may have noticed I also talked a lot about the pitcher’s SwStk% and how it matched up with his strikeout rate. If there’s a metric I like to follow even more than a pitcher’s minor league strikeout rate, it’s possibly SwStk%. Though this is just anecdotal, it feels like if a pitcher has posted a high strikeout rate, but just a mediocre SwStk% in the minors before his MLB promotion, he more often disappoints in strikeout rate in the Majors, suggesting his SwStk% was the metric that translates better, rather than strikeout rate. With that in mind, let’s check out the AL SwStk% leaders at Triple-A that have pitched the majority of their innings in a starting role.

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