Prospect list season is in full swing. Our Eric Longenhagen is knocking out his team lists. Keith Law has just finished his top 100 and team lists. Baseball America is done with their team rankings and is working on their prospect annual. And MLB.com just released their position rankings and top 100. The MLB.com’s top 100 list intrigues me the most. Since it provides scouting grades, it can be used to project a hitter’s fantasy value.

Earlier this offseason, I had a series on using prospect grades to project MLB talent.  While Field and Arm grades help to keep some players playing, defense doesn’t count in fantasy leagues. By comparing a hitter’s Bat, Power, and Speed grades I was able to come up with an overall 20-80 fantasy grade and projected full season stats. These values aren’t close to the final say in player values. They are just an input to be used with scouting reports, normal projections, and other systems like KATOH. Read the rest of this entry »

This past weekend saw the release of MLB.com’s Top 100 prospects, including a show on MLB Network highlighting the Top 50. Andrew Benintendi was named their #1 overall prospect, a fact that’s sure raise his price some in the draft market, especially after Keith Law ranked him the same last week. Back in December, our own Trey Baughn gave him the top spot in his fantasy prospects list and CBS slotted him 2nd in a similar list focusing on fantasy impact.

I’m a little torn on Benintendi for 2017. On the one hand, he’s an advanced college bat who blitzed through the minors in 151 games and acquitted himself very well in a 34-game sample at the majors. On the other, he’s going into his age-22 season with a whopping 118 PA under his belt and that first six-month grind has a way of punching players in the face at some – or multiple points – throughout the season. But then back on the first hand, we know from Jeff Zimmerman that aging curves are moving up so maybe Benintendi is ready to be an impact bat already.

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Welcome to the final installment of the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as an early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Tyler Naquin (OF): Naquin burst onto the scene in 2016, taking advantage of injuries and never looking back. He hit for more power than expected — 14 homers and a .218 ISO in 321 at-bats — during his MLB debut so it will be interesting to see if it was a blip on the radar or a sign of things to come (10 home runs was previously a career high). His strikeout rate, too, was a surprise. After sitting around 20-23%, it spiked to just under 31%. It took a BABIP of .411 to compensate for the contact issues so a batting average near .300 will likely not continue unless he makes some adjustments. He appears pencilled in at center field for Cleveland in 2017.

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Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as an early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Max Kepler (OF/1B): It took almost seven years but the project from Germany finally established himself as a big league player. Kepler, signed at age 16, showed his raw power potential in 2016 by hitting a career high 17 home runs in 113 games for the Twins. But he also swung and missed a fair bit and produced an on-base percentage of just .309. He has some work to do against southpaws before he’ll realize his full potential. He produced an OPS of just .595 against them (compared to .792 vs righties) and his ISO also dipped considerably (.119 vs LHP, .219 vs RHP). Still, the Twins appear set to hand him the reins for right field in 2017. If he continues to develop (and avoid a platoon), Kepler could eventually slug 30+ home runs and even add 10-15 steals.

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Rays traded Logan Forsythe to the Dodgers for Jose De Leon

After looking over several factors (e.g. league, park, etc.), the biggest change for Forsythe will be the players surrounding him and his lineup position. Currently, we have the Dodgers projected for 4.6 Runs per games while the Rays are at 4.3 Runs per game. A better offense equates to more plate appearances, Runs, and RBIs.

My one worry is lineup position. In the games he started last year, he always led off. Right now, RosterResource.com has him again leading off. If he struggles, the Dodgers have better lineup replacement options than the Rays did. His value could plummet if moves down, especially to the eighth spot.

As for De Leon’s value, the key will be how many innings he throws. With the Rays not really contending this season, he could spend quite a bit of time in the minors or be up in a couple of weeks. No one knows for sure.

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Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as an early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Michael Fulmer (RHP): At just 23, Fulmer is already a beast of a man. He combines control with a power fastball and promising secondary stuff. He’s just scratching the surface of his potential but he’s already a good big league pitcher. After throwing 174 innings in 2016, he’s poised to break the 200-inning mark in ’17 and could be an innings-eater for years to come for the Tigers. His ability to command his changeup consistently allowed him to combat left-handed hitters well (He held them to a .220 average). Fulmer’s biggest need is to pace himself a little better throughout the season after perhaps tiring a bit in the second half when he became more hittable.

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Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as an early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Tim Anderson (SS): The club’s first round pick from 2013, Anderson was promoted to the majors more quickly than expected and performed much better than expected. With that said, some regression should be expected for 2017. His 27% strikeout rate is very high for someone with limited home-run pop and that needs to get on base to take advantage of his speed. He walked just 13 times in 99 games — good for a minuscule 3% walk rate. However, if he learns to tighten his approach at the plate, he could develop into a top-of-the-order threat with potentially plus defensive skills.

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Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as an early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Raul Adalberto Mondesi (SS): Injuries wreaked havoc on the Royals in 2016 and it forced the club to promote Mondesi earlier than planned. His minor league numbers certainly didn’t scream out for promotion. He struggled with strikeouts at every level of the minors and didn’t hit anything like even an average player until the 2016 season (in limited at-bats). He has some pop — which didn’t play in his MLB debut — and some speed so there are things to like but he’s going to need to make more contact and get on base more consistently to be more than a bottom-of-the-order hitter. He has a shot at breaking camp with the Royals in 2017 as their second baseman but, really, he needs some more minor league seasoning.

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Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as an early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Orlando Arcia (SS): The rebuilding Brewers added Arcia to their infield in early August and hope to have him anchoring the club’s infield defence for years to come. The gifted infielder’s best tool is probably his defence — which doesn’t really help fantasy owners — but he has some potential with the bat and on the base paths. His minor league numbers suggest he might need a little more polish before he threats to become a solid hitter. His strikeout rate has risen with each promotion over the past four years and surpassed 20% – which is quite high for someone that doesn’t have power as a major weapon at their disposal. On the plus side, he got stronger as a hitter with each passing month during his MLB debut. Arcia is a threat to be a solid big league contributor but don’t expect his bat to be a major weapon in 2017; if he can get on base enough, though, he could steal 20+ bases.

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I have been playing in dynasty and keeper leagues as long as I have been playing fantasy baseball. There is something satisfying about being able to attempt to build long term contending teams and scour the wire for future talent. I also find that they stay the most active from the beginning to end of a season and in the off season. For a fantasy junkie like me, that is a fix I often need. However, there is a dark side to leagues like this…

*Cues the gloomy music* Read the rest of this entry »