Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as an early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Max Kepler (OF/1B): It took almost seven years but the project from Germany finally established himself as a big league player. Kepler, signed at age 16, showed his raw power potential in 2016 by hitting a career high 17 home runs in 113 games for the Twins. But he also swung and missed a fair bit and produced an on-base percentage of just .309. He has some work to do against southpaws before he’ll realize his full potential. He produced an OPS of just .595 against them (compared to .792 vs righties) and his ISO also dipped considerably (.119 vs LHP, .219 vs RHP). Still, the Twins appear set to hand him the reins for right field in 2017. If he continues to develop (and avoid a platoon), Kepler could eventually slug 30+ home runs and even add 10-15 steals.

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Rays traded Logan Forsythe to the Dodgers for Jose De Leon

After looking over several factors (e.g. league, park, etc.), the biggest change for Forsythe will be the players surrounding him and his lineup position. Currently, we have the Dodgers projected for 4.6 Runs per games while the Rays are at 4.3 Runs per game. A better offense equates to more plate appearances, Runs, and RBIs.

My one worry is lineup position. In the games he started last year, he always led off. Right now, RosterResource.com has him again leading off. If he struggles, the Dodgers have better lineup replacement options than the Rays did. His value could plummet if moves down, especially to the eighth spot.

As for De Leon’s value, the key will be how many innings he throws. With the Rays not really contending this season, he could spend quite a bit of time in the minors or be up in a couple of weeks. No one knows for sure.

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Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as an early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Michael Fulmer (RHP): At just 23, Fulmer is already a beast of a man. He combines control with a power fastball and promising secondary stuff. He’s just scratching the surface of his potential but he’s already a good big league pitcher. After throwing 174 innings in 2016, he’s poised to break the 200-inning mark in ’17 and could be an innings-eater for years to come for the Tigers. His ability to command his changeup consistently allowed him to combat left-handed hitters well (He held them to a .220 average). Fulmer’s biggest need is to pace himself a little better throughout the season after perhaps tiring a bit in the second half when he became more hittable.

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Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as an early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Tim Anderson (SS): The club’s first round pick from 2013, Anderson was promoted to the majors more quickly than expected and performed much better than expected. With that said, some regression should be expected for 2017. His 27% strikeout rate is very high for someone with limited home-run pop and that needs to get on base to take advantage of his speed. He walked just 13 times in 99 games — good for a minuscule 3% walk rate. However, if he learns to tighten his approach at the plate, he could develop into a top-of-the-order threat with potentially plus defensive skills.

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Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as an early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Raul Adalberto Mondesi (SS): Injuries wreaked havoc on the Royals in 2016 and it forced the club to promote Mondesi earlier than planned. His minor league numbers certainly didn’t scream out for promotion. He struggled with strikeouts at every level of the minors and didn’t hit anything like even an average player until the 2016 season (in limited at-bats). He has some pop — which didn’t play in his MLB debut — and some speed so there are things to like but he’s going to need to make more contact and get on base more consistently to be more than a bottom-of-the-order hitter. He has a shot at breaking camp with the Royals in 2017 as their second baseman but, really, he needs some more minor league seasoning.

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Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as an early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Orlando Arcia (SS): The rebuilding Brewers added Arcia to their infield in early August and hope to have him anchoring the club’s infield defence for years to come. The gifted infielder’s best tool is probably his defence — which doesn’t really help fantasy owners — but he has some potential with the bat and on the base paths. His minor league numbers suggest he might need a little more polish before he threats to become a solid hitter. His strikeout rate has risen with each promotion over the past four years and surpassed 20% – which is quite high for someone that doesn’t have power as a major weapon at their disposal. On the plus side, he got stronger as a hitter with each passing month during his MLB debut. Arcia is a threat to be a solid big league contributor but don’t expect his bat to be a major weapon in 2017; if he can get on base enough, though, he could steal 20+ bases.

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I have been playing in dynasty and keeper leagues as long as I have been playing fantasy baseball. There is something satisfying about being able to attempt to build long term contending teams and scour the wire for future talent. I also find that they stay the most active from the beginning to end of a season and in the off season. For a fantasy junkie like me, that is a fix I often need. However, there is a dark side to leagues like this…

*Cues the gloomy music* Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as an early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Willson Contreras (C): The change in Contreras’ fortunes changed dramatically during the 2015 season when he went from being a fringe-average hitter in his first five years to producing at elite levels for a catcher. That newfound success carried over into 2016 at the triple-A level and led to his promotion… and a key role on the World Series champions. The Yankees’ Gary Sanchez received a lot of attention for his season but Contreras had the second-best season by a catcher (minimum 150 at-bats) when looking at weighted runs created (126 wRC+). The only real cause for concern moving into 2017 would be his strikeout rate — which jumped 10% from triple-A to the majors (13.3 to 23.7%). The 24-year-old has additional fantasy value in some leagues due to his versatility; he appeared in 24 games in the outfield and even three at first base.

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Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as an early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Jameson Taillon (RHP): If there is one thing the Pirates do really, really well… it’s developing pitching. The hard-throwing Taillon joined Gerrit Cole in the big league rotation in 2016 and didn’t look out of place. He pitched to a 3.38 ERA in 104 innings while showing otherworldly control for his age with just under 1.5 walks per nine innings. Like Cole, Taillon can dial his heater up into the upper 90s but he doesn’t chase strikeouts. His strikeout rate was a decent — but hardly elite — 7.36 K/9 but his ground-ball rate of 52% was above the league average. It’s quite likely that the K-rate will climb as Taillon matures as a pitcher and further sharpens his command. He needs a better weapon against left-handed batters when you consider his K/BB splits (9.60 vs RHHs, 3.08 vs LHHs). As it stands, he’ll be the No. 2 starter on the club.

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As we close out 2016, we’re nearing that point in time where we look forward to what the future holds and then solidify commitments about changes we plan to make.  From a fantasy perspective, there are few things to look forward to more than the annual Ottoneu auction, so whether you’re anxiously anticipating your very first or are committed to improving upon your second or tenth, preparation is everything.  As in life, you rarely get the chance to make a second first impression, so recovering from a poor draft can be a challenge that plagues you all season long.  

I covered the mechanics (many of which have since been upgraded) of the Ottoneu auction last year here.  We’re still roughly one month from the keeper deadline (1/31), but today I want to offer some practical suggestions (especially for those new to the game) for how to begin preparing for your auction draft.  If you’re thinking about playing Ottoneu for the first time in 2017, leagues are forming daily here and here.

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