Last offseason I committed to finding if there was any information to be gleaned from prospect grades. Sometimes the grades were useful. Other times not at all. While I made some conclusions, many are still unanswered. Over the next few weeks, I going to try to find those answers.

I’m heading down the path with an unknown timetable or conclusion. My goal is to take scoutable hitter traits and come up with a usable projection system. For inputs, I will use the standard five 20-80 scouting traits of Bat, Power, Speed, Defense, and Arm. Using just these factors last year, I found an OK estimate of a player’s projection.

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The Rangers had an impressive 2017 draft and feature an intriguing collection of talented players — especially in the low minors.

The Graduate: Jose Leclerc, RHP: The Rangers are known for churning out young, high-impact players but that wasn’t the case in 2017 with Leclerc as the top rookie with a 0.2 WAR. He showed swing-and-miss stuff with a strikeout rate of 11.82 K/9 but he also walked almost eight batters per nine innings. He predominantly relies on a fastball-changeup combo but mixes in a few other offerings and his slider shows some potential. He put a lot of batters on base — mainly due to the free pass — but was difficult to hit and allowed just 23 base knocks. If he can find a way to locate the plate more consistently then he could be a very dominating pitcher.

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Recently I reviewed the results of the first few rounds of a new dynasty league prospect draft.  The review continues today with a quick look at some key selections in rounds 7 – 9.

Dynasty Prospect Draft Review: Rounds 1 – 3

Dynasty Prospect Draft Review: Rounds 4 – 6

This draft should help you “discover” a few names to keep an eye on going forward.  If you have specific questions about players or the thought process of why they were selected, fire away in the comments section, as I’ve asked each owner in the league to be on standby to provide feedback as we review the rounds.

Before I review my own thoughts on the draft, you should know this Ottoneu league uses the “FanGraphs Points” scoring system based on linear weights, so offense is heavily slanted towards wOBA skills (and speed is almost a non-factor).  We also somewhat arbitrarily removed the Top 12 overall offensive prospects to save them for the standard 40-man auction next spring.  Otherwise, any minor league player without one (1) MLB PA or IP is eligible to be drafted.  You can read more about the custom rules of this dynasty league here, and follow along with the draft here.

Many of the prospects below are also featured on the 2018 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects list.

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It’s got to be hard to be an A’s fan. The organization continues to develop solid players — and there is an exciting wave on the way, led by the likes of Matt Olson, Matt Chapman and A.J. Puk — but you know they’re probably going to be traded as they enter into their primes.

The Graduate: Matt Olson, 1B: I could easily talk about Matt Chapman who appeared in more games than Olson but the slugging first baseman arguably has more fantasy value. A significant amount of Chapman’s value comes from his third-base defence (at least right now). Olson had an almost unprecedented power run with 20 homers in 43 second half games. He’ll probably never hit for much of an average and strikes out a lot but he off-sets that by getting on base via the free pass. Olson, 23, should play everyday in 2018 – perhaps split between first base and designated hitter. He hits in a big ball park but he has the kind of power that plays anywhere – as seen by his 12 homers in 27 home games.

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September is always an interesting month as baseball inexplicably changes its rules entirely with roster expansion up to 40 players. The month will often yield some big offensive outputs that get overlooked for fear that they were achieved against less-than-stellar competition. While I’ll grant that there are pitchers who wouldn’t normally be in the majors in rotations and bullpens, rarely do I think a guy puts an entire month of numbers against such inferior competition. Today I’m looking at a handful of rookies who’ve made some noise in September and should be firmly on your radar for 2018:

Matt Olson | Athletics

Unfortunately, we know that Olson’s season is done after a Grade 2 hamstring strain suffered on Sunday, but it was a tremendous 59-game run for the 23-year old 1B. He clocked 24 HR in just 49 hits, yielding an obscene 66 HR full season pace. Of course, that’s why we don’t take small samples and extrapolate them out. That said, he totaled 47 HR between the majors and minors so a 30-HR full season in 2018 isn’t at all out of bounds.

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The Mariners had a disheartening end to their playoff hopes in 2017 but the club has some promising young players who should help the club remain competitive.

The Graduate: Mitch Haniger, OF: Haniger was absolutely on fire early in the year before he got hurt. When he came back, he didn’t show the same patience at the plate and, as a result, it took a while for him to get back into the swing of things. When he’s going good, Haniger can impact every facet of the game. He may never be a huge batting average guy but, if he can walk more often like he did at the beginning of the year, the 26-year-old hitter can still be an above-average offensive guy when you also consider his power potential. He’s a strong defender in right field and should be a very good player for the Mariners for the foreseeable future.

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On Wednesday I reviewed the results of the first three rounds of a new dynasty league prospect draft.  I’ll continue that review today with rounds 4 – 6, where some deeper, more interesting prospects appear.

Dynasty Prospect Draft Review: Rounds 1 – 3

This draft should help you “discover” a few names to keep an eye on going forward.  If you have specific questions about players or the thought process of why they were selected, fire away in the comments section, as I’ve asked each owner in the league to be on standby to provide feedback as we review the rounds.

Before I review my own thoughts on the draft, you should know this Ottoneu league uses the “FanGraphs Points” scoring system based on linear weights, so offense is heavily slanted towards wOBA skills (and speed is almost a non-factor).  We also somewhat arbitrarily removed the Top 12 overall offensive prospects to save them for the standard 40-man auction next spring.  Otherwise, any minor league player without one (1) MLB PA or IP is eligible to be drafted.  You can read more about the custom rules of this dynasty league here, and follow along with the draft here.

Many of the prospects below are also featured on the 2018 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects list.

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There were a few years there that I dreaded writing about the Angels for this series but no more… The organization has some legitimately intriguing prospects. Don’t just take my word for it, let’s have a look!

The Graduate: Parker Bridwell, RHP: Earlier this week, I stated that the Dodgers had one of the best player development systems in the game. Well, the Orioles probably have one of the worst… and Bridwell is a perfect example of a player simply needing a change of scenery to realize his full potential. With that said, the right-hander’s potential is modest and he’ll probably settle in as more of a No. 4 starter. He doesn’t miss a lot of bats and he produces a lot of fly balls, which is a dangerous combination. His heater is average but it plays up because he has above-average control and keeps hitters off balance with multiple offerings.

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Recently I created a new dynasty baseball league customized around the basic game of Ottoneu.  The more you play Ottoneu the more you come to appreciate how deep the player pool really is, and the longer I play fantasy baseball the more interested I become in the minor league development process.  While there is still plenty of luck involved, the satisfaction of “discovering” the next Rhys Hoskins before everyone else is a feeling that keeps me coming back to the game over and over.

In addition to the standard economics of Ottoneu where each league consists of twelve owners and 480 rostered players (minors and majors), our league will roster an additional 180 minor leaguers (15 extra per team) in an attempt to “develop” successful franchises for years to come.  Since the regular MLB season is wrapping up soon and many fantasy owners are starting to look towards 2018, I thought it might be helpful to review our prospect draft over the next several posts to give you some insight into the valuation of these minor league lottery tickets.  If nothing else, this draft should help you “discover” a few names to keep an eye on going forward.  If you have specific questions about players or the thought process of why they were selected, fire away in the comments section, as I’ve asked each owner in the league to be on standby to provide feedback as we review the rounds.  

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The Dodgers system has it all: Impact talent, depth, excellent scouts and a proven player development system that just might be the best in the game.

The Graduate: Cody Bellinger, OF/1B: I had no doubt that Bellinger was going to be an impact player at the big league level but I didn’t expect it to happen so quickly. I also — most certainly — did not expect him to slug 38 home runs as a rookie in 2017. The freshman has struck out too much this season but the power and the on-base percentage makes the swing-and-miss entirely palatable. Known as an excellent defender at first base who can also play a solid outfield, Bellinger’s work out in the pastures left something to be desired while his work in the infield was as expected. That’s kind of bad news, though, since injured, veteran first baseman Adrian Gonzalez still has $21.5 million owed to him in 2018. As a result, Bellinger may have to spend a full season in the outfield until the contract expires. Once he settles in at first base for good, he should be there for a decade or more.

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