This offseason, I decided to roll out this series as an extension of my own fantasy draft prep. By sifting through National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) draft data, I’ve gone position by position through average draft position (ADP) info to identify players who I believe my fellow fantasy owners are overrating or underrating. By doing so, I’m able to better identify potential sleepers, and get an idea for what price I’ll pay for them. So far, I’ve written posts on third basemen, shortstops and second basemen, and today I’ll take a stab at first base.

As you might have guessed from reading the headline above this article, today’s comparison involves Rockies rookie Ryan McMahon and Brewers veteran Eric Thames. I’ll lead off by saying that this one boggles my mind more than any of the other underrated/overrated pieces I’ve written this offseason.

Let’s take a quick look at where these two are being drafted:

Essentially, Thames is a 16th-round pick in 12-team standard leagues, and McMahon is a 30th rounder — or in other words, he’s basically being drafted as an NL-only guy. I wondered if these numbers might be changing as we get closer to the season, so I took a look at Yahoo, which has only even had their fantasy baseball site up for a little over week. However, it’s the same story there, where Thames is 86% owned, compared to just 9% for McMahon. My goal for today is to help close that gap.

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Last week, we looked at the five rookie outfielders with the highest potential for impact in 2018 — given enough playing time. Today, we’ll dig a little deeper for some sleeper players that could also make significant waves during the coming season.

Willie Calhoun, IF/OF, Rangers: Calhoun, a former second baseman, is more likely to see time as a left fielder or designated hitter. His all-bat-no-hit profile lowers his real-life value but doesn’t hurt him in fantasy. In fact, if he plays enough games at second base, he has added value due to versatility.

He’s a smallish player but he hits the ball hard. He went deep 27 times at double-A in 2016 and followed that up with 31 long balls in triple-A last year. Calhoun, 23, also rarely strikes out so he puts a lot of balls in play. His willingness to use the whole field could help hit for average (along with the power) at the big league level. The Rangers got themselves a good one in last year’s trade with the Dodgers.

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As the infancy stage of the 2018 season begins, rookie outfielders from across the league are reporting to camp with an eye to having a major impact on the 2018 season. Some of those hopes will come true, while others will stumble and face a frustrating campaign. Over the next week, we’ll take a look at the Top 10 rookie outfielders that this author feels have the best chance at impacting both their teams and the game in 2018.

*Shohei Ohtani was not considered a rookie given his professional experience in Japan

Ronald Acuna, CF, Braves: The path to playing time is always an important piece when discussing potential rookie impact. With Acuna, that is not an issue with the current crop of outfielders that the Braves 40-man roster possesses. Looking at the Braves depth chart at FanGraphs, only Ender Inciarte projects to be more than a one-win player, and the left-field picture is a giant suck hole. Now, the club may choose to delay Acuna’s arbitration eligibility by sending him down to the minors for a few weeks to begin the year (especially since they’re not going to challenge for a playoff spot) but it’s pretty clear that he fits prominently into the picture for the coming year. It’s possible, though, that he could struggle early like 2017 rookie shortstop Dansby Swanson. Despite his massive ceiling (20+ homers, 30+ steals), Acuna also showed some contact issues in 2017 and his impressive batting line was aided by a BABIP of .400. He might very well have the most long-term success of any of the 2018 rookie outfielders but I foresee solid but unspectacular numbers for the coming season in Atlanta.

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Fantasy catchers typically have limited value to teams — although outliers like Buster Posey exist — so it doesn’t make much sense to spend much money (in auction leagues) or a significant draft slot on the position. As a result, rookie catchers can often provide a good option in fantasy — especially for the second slot in two-catcher leagues — because they can be had for little financial commitment/be snatched off the waiver wire and some possess untapped offensive potential.

Jorge Alfaro, C, Phillies: Alfaro could develop into one of the top catchers in baseball on both sides of the ball thanks to his plus power and rocket arm behind the plate. From a fantasy-only perspective, he has the potential to be a Top 10 option before his rookie season is over. However, he needs to be more selective at the plate if he’s going to realize his full potential. His strikeout rate of more than 30% at triple-A was down right scary and his walk rate throughout his minor league career has hovered around just 5%.

Again, catchers don’t have to be great hitters to be valuable to a big league team so Alfaro’s 20+ home run potential (and ability to hit the ball really hard) is enough to get excited about. The big obstacle for the rookie backstop in 2018 is the presence of decent big league catchers Cameron Rupp and Andrew Knapp. However, both of the more seasoned catchers have remaining minor league options while Alfaro does not.

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It’s tough to get excited about this year’s batch of rookie pitchers. One reason is that most of the top arms (Reyes, Gohara, Buehler, Flaherty) have already debuted in the majors. Many of the other top-ranked arms have not pitched in double-A yet.

With this year’s class looking down, there always seems to be a few pitchers who come out of nowhere like Luis Castillo did last season. He wasn’t picked among the top 600 players in NFBC and now he near a top-100 pick. Jake Faria and Dinelson Lamet were a couple other arms who were off owner’s radars. It just takes a pitcher gaining a couple ticks on his fastball or developing a new pitch to shoot up in talent.

I found it best to be aggressive on this these mid-season call-ups. They may be getting promoted because they are ready. Investigate any recent scouting reports and don’t be afraid to roster them if they’re talented.

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Eric and Kiley have graciously taken the time to give us some of the best prospect content on the net, but today as prospect week continues I’ll provide a quick fantasy spin for each of the 2018 Top 100 prospects. The goal here is simply to each prospect’s grades and scouting reports and then translate those skills into “what could be” for fantasy context (for example where “upside” might represent an 80%+ outcome on a prospect’s potential).

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With prospect week happening on the main website, I’m going to look at the hitting prospects ranked by their NFBC ADP (average draft position). This will be the batter’s value just in redraft leagues, not in keeper or dynasty leagues. I’ve included the player’s average, low, and high ADP values along with their Fangraphs prospect ranking.

Ronald Acuna (133 ADP, 88 min, 207 max, #2 prospect)

As the first rookie hitter off the board, his price is just a little too high for me considering the options available after him. He’s a talented ball player who is consistently ranked as either the #1 or #2 prospect in the game. He’s going to be good but how good in 2018 is the question. I have two reservations about him.

First, the no league has had a chance to adapt to his weaknesses and then have Acuna adapt back. Even pitchers found Mike Trout’s “weakness” and he had to adapt. Acuna will need to also. The question will be when the adaptation will occur and how long will it take. Will it happen in the minors and take a couple months? Or will happen in the big leagues and only be a week or two. This adjustment time could really frustrate owners.

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While it’s true that Ottoneu never sleeps, some are often surprised to know that January and February are among the busiest months of the year for this growing fantasy sports platform.  This winter frenzy period for baseball is refreshing because it keeps owners engaged even as they await free agent signings, and it is highly active because so many new leagues are forming.  If you’re thinking about playing Ottoneu this season, here are some key resources for review:

What Is Ottoneu?

Ottoneu First Impressions

Why You Should Play Ottoneu

How To Get Started Playing Ottoneu

10 Tips for Ottoneu Rookies

Join an Ottoneu League

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It’s prospect week which means it’s time for RotoGraphs to jump in line with cross-promotional synergistical, uh… I lost my train of thought. Anyway, I’m going to write about two prospects.

Wait. Here’s an important note about me, the author, with regards to assessing minor league talent. My prospect exposure is not uniform. I have a very strong grasp of the Phillies system, in part because I grew up within walking distance* of the city, and in part because they may have the best prospect coverage (h/t to @Matt_Winkelman and friends). I also have a few MLB contacts – mainly scouts with whom I used to play – who will occasionally feed me breakout prospects before they’re publicly recognized as such. Mostly, I use google-able scouting reports and FanGraphs stats to analyze players. Ok, disclaimer proclaimed. Shall we?

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Welcome to the Ottoneu keeper deadline, 2018 edition.  Today (11:59 PM EDT) is the final day to make that difficult decision about your on-the-bubble players before rosters lock and you set your sights on your upcoming league auction.  Per the rules:

Between the end of the Major League Baseball regular season and the end of arbitration, players may be cut. Between the end of arbitration and the keeper deadline, players may be cut or traded. After the keeper deadline and before the auction draft, teams may not cut or trade any players.

Since the keeper deadline also serves as a de-factor trade deadline, I’ve lined up a few final resources for you below and I’ve asked a handful of Ottoneu experts (Justin, Chad, Brad) to check your questions and comments periodically throughout the day to offer their input on your toughest decisions.  You don’t play this game? You should, but even if your non-Ottoneu keeper deadline is still a few weeks away, feel free to fire your questions below and we’ll do our best to give you feedback (for context, don’t forget to let us know details about your league format).

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