A week ago, I examined how prospect rankings could add more context to hitter projections. It’s time to take the research a step further by dividing up the prospect list to see if projections can be refined. And they can be.

Initially, I shied away from dividing up the prospect lists because the sample size quickly gets into single digits. I started dissecting the data hoping to keep reasonable sample sizes. I sort of achieved my goal.

I used the same parameters in the last article. I compared a hitter’s Steamer projected OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) from 2010 to 2017 to the actual results in their debut season. To designate prospects, I used Baseball America’s top-100 which has been compiled since 1990. I collected the average and median change in OPS. The median value helps to smooth out any major outliers.

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Rarely is OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) a fantasy stat. It’s off many people’s radar but it’s widely available and closely mimics a position player’s overall hitting talent. While other stats (e.g. wOBA and wRC+) also give a hitter an overall value, these stats aren’t available at every website. Most sites have their own unique blend but OPS is commonly available. Because of this availability, I’ve been using it as a baseline in recent articles on adjusting projections based on prospect pedigree and when hitters get platooned ($$). Now, it’s time to use OPS to help predict the individual categories.

The process I used for this study was to simply see how much various stats changed when OPS changed a certain amount. For rate stats (e.g. batting average) the conversion is straightforward. For counting categories, I put the stats on a per 600 plate appearance scale. Additionally, I only compared data from 2015 to 2017 during the current “juiced” ball era. I know the process is not close to being 100% precise and that is fine. I’m just trying to create general adjustments and can look to hone the process later. I’m putting in 20% effort to get 80% of the answer.

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Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we take a trip through the minors league systems of the Nationals, Diamondbacks, Padres and Astros.

Juan Soto, OF, Nationals: With 20-year-old outfielder Ronald Acuna now in the Majors with the Braves, Soto is now the most exciting outfield prospect in the game — surpassing his better known org mate Victor Robles. The 19-year-old outfielder is an exceptionally gifted hitter who has an extremely mature approach at the plate that is somewhat similar to Toronto’s phenom, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Soto might actually be in double-A by now had he not lost most of last year to injury. There really isn’t much that he doesn’t do well. He has a .367 career average and is hitting .380 in 2018 split between two A-ball levels. He’s shown an exceptional eye with 24 walks and 17 strikeouts in 28 games. And he’s no singles hitter; 11 of his 41 hits have gone over the outfield fence — and he has a total of 23 extra base hits. He also hits left-handed pitching with four homers and a batting average just shy of .500 in 31 at-bats this year. If Bryce Harper leaves Washington after this year, this is the player that’s going to soften the blow.

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As I did last year, I’m going to periodically review the top minor league prospect performances from a pure production standpoint (using linear weights based FanGraphs points). The annual top prospect lists do a good job of identifying the top talents in the minor leagues, but sometimes a prospect is lower ranked due to their extreme youth and long path to the majors, but then hits so well that their omission is glaring (think Fernando Tatis Jr.). In other cases a player not well thought of by scouts just continues to hit at every stop, and demands to be taken seriously (think Rhys Hoskins).

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My current aim in fantasy baseball is to find instances where player evaluations can be improved. With several prospects recently getting called up, I am trying to answer the simple question: is there any projection information to be gained from being a highly touted prospect. The short answer is yes, but it took me a while to get good results.

I wanted to keep the analysis simple so I used all available Steamer projections which to back to 2010. Additionally, I used Baseball America’s top 100 ranked prospects for that time frame. From these two data sets, I compared the hitter’s projected results to the actual results for their first few seasons.

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It’s always interesting to look back at lopsided trades like the one that sent Teoscar Hernandez to Toronto, especially because the team that gave him up was the Houston Astros, a franchise that the vast majority of knowledgeable fans would agree tends to make many more smart decisions than dumb ones. With that in mind, I think what was amazing about the Teoscar deal is just how down the Astros were on the talented young outfielder.

On July 31, 2017, the Astros traded Teoscar and Nori Aoki to the Blue Jays. The return? Francisco Liriano, who brought with him a truly shameful 5.88 ERA, which was largely fueled by his 4.68 BB/9. Even at the time, it seemed pretty clear that the Astros knew Liriano was washed up, as the club converted him to a glorified LOOGY. Liriano pitched a grand total of 16.2 IP with the Astros — 14.1 IP in the regular season, 2.1 IP in the playoffs — over the course of 25 appearances.

Of course, this post is not about Liriano, but it’s important to contextualize how little the Astros valued Teoscar that they were willing to part with him (and Aoki) for 16.2 IP of replacement-level relief pitching. With George Springer, Josh Reddick, Marwin Gonzalez, Derek Fisher, and Jake Marisnick hanging around the major-league club — and stud prospect Kyle Tucker climbing through the minors — it’s certainly true that the Astros were dealing from depth. Still, the Jays did one hell of a job landing Teoscar in exchange for a 34-year-old pitcher fighting to keep his ERA under 6.00.

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Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we look at a sleeper prospect behind the plate for the Cubs, a first baseman that could impact the playoff race for the Mets, an outfielder that could help fill in the gaping hole in left field for the Astros, and another intriguing arm in the Rays system.

Miguel Amaya, C, Cubs: If you like deep, deep sleepers then keep an eye on Amaya, who could be developing into an intriguing offensive-minded catcher if the early season returns are a sign of things to come. Signed back in 2015 for $1.25 million, the 19-year-old athlete was assigned to full-season ball in just his second season in North America. Amaya is hitting .279 and showing excellent power. Nine of his 17 hits have gone for extra bases (including three home runs). Perhaps more impressively, he’s shown a good eye and has eight walks to go with 13 strikeouts. Defensively, he’s caught just two of 21 runners attempting to steal and he has a lot of work to do behind the plate. It will be interesting to see how the young backstop holds up to the rigors of a full season of catching, although the club has also been giving him some time at first base.

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The Prospect Stock Watch is back for another year. The first month of baseball is dwindling down and with all the weather cancellations it’s really flown by. Let’s have a look at some of the prospects that are off to either fast or slow starts to the year.

Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, Padres: San Diego has been extremely aggressive with this 19-year-old star-in-the-making. He’s shown uncanny in-game power for a teenager and went deep 22 times last year as an 18-year-old hitter in A-ball. The jump to double-A has been quite the challenge for him, though. He appeared at that level last year for 14 games and posted a strikeout rate of 30%. This year… another 14 games so far and another strikeout rate at 30%. Perhaps just as alarming, Tatis Jr.’s walk rate is hovering around a minuscule 2.5%. And he’s even stopped running. After stealing 29 bases a year ago, he has yet to even make an attempt to run. In hindsight, the decision to skip him over high-A ball may have been a mistake. But the good news is that he’s still young, still loaded with tools and should eventually rebound. It just might take him another two to three months to really adjust to the more advanced pitching in the upper levels of the minors.

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I’m going over hitters who are getting regular at-bats who I didn’t consider rosterable in the preseason. It’s now time to see if I missed anything.

Christian Villanueva

Everyone missed on Villanueva to start the season. He got no prospect love anywhere and the only preseason profile I found called him a “utilityman”. I don’t like to miss this badly on a player and set up a filter to find these gems. I’m not sure I can.

To start with, he had a decent Triple-A season hitting .296/.369/.528 and continued the results in the majors.

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To say things have gone very, very well for the Los Angeles Angels so far in 2018 would be an understatement. The club sits quite handily in first place in the American League West division and features two of the most exciting players in all of baseball in Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. The one thing the club hasn’t done exceptionally well in recent memory, though, is develop players. It’s had a bottom third system for quite some time now.

But things are beginning to change for the better. I looked at the Angels Top 10 prospects list back in mid-March and identified a list that was slowly evolving into an impressive collection of players. Today, I’m going to take an early peek at how the top prospect, Jahmai Jones, is doing… along with one player I identified as a “just-missed” sleeper in pitcher Griffin Canning and a third player that I didn’t talk about at all in Taylor Ward.

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