Ottoneu Prospect Report: May 3, 2018

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May 3, 2018

As I did last year, I’m going to periodically review the top minor league prospect performances from a pure production standpoint (using linear weights based FanGraphs points). The annual top prospect lists do a good job of identifying the top talents in the minor leagues, but sometimes a prospect is lower ranked due to their extreme youth and long path to the majors, but then hits so well that their omission is glaring (think Fernando Tatis Jr.). In other cases a player not well thought of by scouts just continues to hit at every stop, and demands to be taken seriously (think Rhys Hoskins).

Before I present the list of top hitters, see below for hitters that appeared in these articles last year, and their ottoneu ownership at the time they first appeared:

Ronald Acuna (<50%)
Scott Kingery, Derek Fisher, Luis Urias (<25%)
Jeimer Candelario (<10%)
Bo Bichette, Miguel Andujar (<1%)

Not every player on this list is going to turn out as well as that group above, but just because a player is currently owned in very few leagues doesn’t mean they can’t be a prime target.

Here are the top twenty prospect hitting performances based on FanGraphs points so far this minor league season:

Top MiLB Hitters ’18 (Org top 30)
Rk Player Own % Age L PA AVG OBP SLG OPS Pts Pts/PA
2 Juan Soto 76.3 19 ALL (2) 114 0.363 0.482 0.758 1.240 269.7 2.37
15 Josh Naylor 5.9 20 AA 120 0.375 0.450 0.673 1.123 251.1 2.09
4 Peter Alonso 3.3 23 AA 102 0.393 0.490 0.762 1.252 238.7 2.34
28 Austin Allen 1.3 24 AA 107 0.337 0.393 0.714 1.107 220.9 2.06
23 David Fletcher 0.7 23 AAA 110 0.370 0.422 0.600 1.022 203.5 1.85
19 Kevin Smith – 21 A(Full) 105 0.333 0.381 0.583 0.964 190.9 1.82
15 Forrest Wall – 22 A(Adv) 122 0.314 0.405 0.486 0.891 190.6 1.56
14 Taylor Ward – 24 AA 101 0.383 0.495 0.543 1.038 189.3 1.87
4 Colton Welker 3.9 20 A(Adv) 117 0.320 0.419 0.515 0.934 187.4 1.6
17 Drew Ferguson – 25 AAA 116 0.343 0.435 0.525 0.960 185.7 1.6
27 Bryson Brigman – 22 A(Adv) 102 0.391 0.475 0.575 1.050 185.3 1.82
13 Luis Alexander Basabe – 21 A(Adv) 101 0.314 0.410 0.605 1.015 185.1 1.83
15 Connor Wong 1.3 21 A(Adv) 89 0.325 0.393 0.700 1.093 183.9 2.07
21 Myles Straw 0.7 23 AA 113 0.352 0.455 0.451 0.906 183.0 1.62
30 Rylan Bannon – 22 A(Adv) 113 0.276 0.363 0.592 0.955 182.0 1.61
4 Yordan Alvarez 23.0 20 AA 104 0.303 0.394 0.573 0.967 181.9 1.75
15 Calvin Mitchell – 19 A(Full) 107 0.333 0.387 0.573 0.960 179.5 1.68
6 Austin Riley 42.1 21 AA 95 0.318 0.368 0.648 1.016 177.1 1.86
1 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 96.7 19 AA 100 0.388 0.455 0.600 1.055 174.6 1.75
18 Luis Gonzalez – 22 A(Full) 111 0.344 0.414 0.490 0.904 173.3 1.56

It’s early, but it sure looks like Juan Soto might be taking a Ronald Acuna path to the major leagues. Soto was a top 50 prospect on most lists (50th exactly on the FanGraphs 100 Top Prospects list), so it’s not like he wasn’t highly thought of heading into 2018, but his early blistering of A-ball (.441 ISO, .542 wOBA) has already led to a promotion to high-A Hagerstown (.313 ISO, .505 wOBA). It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he’s promoted again to AA sometime in the next month or two, assuming he continues to hit.

Unlike Soto, Josh Naylor was not a top 100 prospect, and that has a lot to do with him being a first baseman by trade. He’s actually made eight starts in left field for the Padres AA squad, so there’s at least some chance he has the versatility needed to overcome the Hosmer roadblock he faces. Which is all good news, because he’s raking, hitting for more power than he ever has before, all while walking more than he’s struck out. I’m not fully sold on this being a true breakout for Naylor, but he’s also showing all the signs you want to see that would indicate a jump in talent level.

Yordan Alvarez is a hulking 1B/LF type, but that didn’t stop him from appearing as the 44th best prospect in the preseason list. Alvarez disappointed a bit after his promotion to high-A in ’17, but the Astros decided to assign him to AA anyways, and they’ve been rewarded for their faith in Yordan as he currently sports a .418 wOBA. That Astros team is loaded at the major league level, but Houston may have to find a place for Alvarez one way or another later this season.

Once (if?) Jose Bautista is called up by the Braves to man the hot corner, he’ll likely just be keeping it warm for Austin Riley. Riley, the 55th ranked prospect heading into ’18, is a former supplemental first round draft pick in ’15 who has been steadily climbing the organizational ladder while hitting well at every stop. This season marks an encore at the AA level, and it might not take much longer before he’s either promoted to AAA (to replace Bautista if he’s promoted), or directly to MLB (if the Braves decide Bautista won’t help them as much as Riley will).

We’re all familiar with Vladimir Guerrero Jr, and his pedigree, but I wanted to make note of his performance anyway. The things he did as an 18 year old last season, and a 19 year old this season, are truly remarkable. He continues to walk (12.0%) more than he strikes out (10.0%), and his hit tool and raw power are both as good as any other prospect in baseball. He may not be tapping into all his power yet (just two HR and a “low” .213 ISO), but the projections believe he would be a league average hitter if he were promoted to the majors tomorrow. Given how competitive the Blue Jays are in the early going, there’s a real chance he’s promoted and helping the team in the wild card hunt in the summer.





 

Justin is a life long Cubs fan who has been playing fantasy baseball for 20+ years, and an ottoneu addict since 2012. Follow him on Twitter @justinvibber.

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OddBall Herrera
5 years ago

Harvey’s clearly done, Vargas has looked as terrible as expected, basically all their hitters but Asdrubal are underperforming, Wheeler & Matz are totally unreliable…and the Nationals haven’t even really hit their stride yet. I think a desperation move from the Mets is probably going to mean Alonso is relevant well before the other guys.

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