It’s been a few weeks since I’ve dived into hitting prospects. I’m ready for a beating in the comments. Besides the overall list, I’m going to dive into a few sluggers who are showing some promise.

These projections are based off the player’s production (wRC+ which has stadium and league adjustments), their age for level, and a small amount of regression. I used to incorporate a position adjustment but FanGraphs source data changed and I haven’t coded in a solution.

Are

• A supplement to Eric’s and Kiley’s prospect rankings. This set utilizes stats, the hitter’s age compared to the level’s average age, and some regression to find potential overlooked prospects before they start showing up on major prospect lists.

Aren’t

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Unlike the White Sox, where almost all the top talent is at double-A or higher, the Indians have a very thin system with most of the talent in A-ball or lower. With that said I loved their 2018 draft and feel it’s being under estimated for how impactful it could be in a few years with the right coaching/development and some luck with injuries.

Click here for the pre-season Top 10

1. Triston McKenzie | RHP | AA —> McKenzie is one of the better starting pitcher prospects left in the minors and if he were affiliated with New York, Boston or another big market team there would be a lot more hype here. McKenzie has a great frame with room to add strength (and fastball velo), athleticism and projects to eventually have three better-than-average offerings. He needs to get back to utilizing his height more effectively and generating more ground balls. One caution: He missed the start of the year with a forearm issue, which can often lead to Tommy John surgery.

2. Nolan Jones | 3B | A+ —> I’m a big fan of Jones. Despite some swing and miss to his game, he shows an advanced approach for someone that opened the year as a teenager. And he’s already starting to turn his raw power into over-the-fence pop. His willingness to take a walk also adds to his value and he should hit for average, power and produce above-average on-base totals. He should stick at third base and looks like a future middle-of-the-order run producer. Jones, 20, could very well reach double-A in 2019.

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It’s time for another round of potential unknown pitching prospects. In this iteration, I made a rather major change to the age for level adjustment. Additionally, I examined a few high minor league starters.

First, for the adjustment. I felt too many mediocre 20-year-old or younger arms were near the list’s top. While these pitchers could develop into decent 4th or 5th starters, they weren’t top end starters. I cut the factor for age at the level by over half. More elite pitcher from the lower levels, no matter their age, jumped up the list.

Additionally, I keep getting comments on being transparent on the process. It’s not complex with just three inputs. With so much noise included into ERA and any batted ball data, a struggling pitcher can be high on this list.

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The Top 10 list for the Sox is top heavy with some studs but the system lacks depth, overall. Still, I’m a big fan of both Jimenez and Cease.

Click here for the pre-season Top 10

1. Eloy Jimenez | OF | AAA —> In the past, the Sox system was populated by a large group of grip-and-rip hitters with extremely poor plate discipline. Jimenez, although aggressive at the plate, makes a lot of contact — especially for a monster with plus power. Just 21, he hits the ball really hard and generates a lot of line drives, which suggests to me that his higher BABIP might be a little more sustainable than most. He should be ready to settle into a big league role at the beginning of 2019 as a strong-armed right-fielder with the ability to slug 30+ homers.

2. Dylan Cease | RHP | AAA —> Part of the return for Jose Quintana last year, the Cubs probably already regret this deal and Cease hasn’t even reached the Majors. The young right-hander has gotten stronger as the year has progressed and improved even more with a promotion from double-A to triple-A. He, like Jimenez, is ready to contribute at the big league level. Overall, he’s used his two plus offerings — fastball and curve — to strike out 140 batters in 112.1 innings. There are some injury concerns with Cease, who has a decent pitcher’s frame, but isn’t the tallest guy, and had Tommy John surgery in his past. There is frontline starter potential here, especially if the third offering continues to improve.

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It used to be a drag writing about the Tigers system due to a lack of both depth and intriguing prospects. That is no longer the case and the Tigers have a solid Top 10 list and the depth is beginning to expand throughout the system.

Click here for the pre-season Top 10

1. Matt Manning | RHP | A+ —> I know the consensus has Mize ranked first but Manning has proven himself more — and at a higher level. His stuff also screams No. 2/3 starter if he can solidify an average third pitch, which will likely be the changeup. He has a great pitcher’s frame and should chew up lots of innings while flashing his mid-to-upper-90s heat and plus curveball. He’s also athletic and should eventually have better-than-average command and control.

2. Casey Mize | RHP | DNP —> Mize has the stuff to be a top-of-the-rotation arm with his fastball, slider and splitter but his frame isn’t quite as ideal as Manning’s and he may have to watch his weight as he matures. There are also some injury concerns with Mize, including a previous forearm strain, which is often a precursor to Tommy John surgery (although he passed his physical with Detroit). Like Manning, Mize has shown athleticism and should move quickly.

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Let’s take a look at the Triple-A pitching leaderboards for five who could get an unexpected call up, either to fill an August need or when rosters expand to 40 in September. By the way, no one who has already appeared in the majors this year will be included here. Sorry, Adam Plutko (1.82 ERA, 0.73 WHIP)!

Josh James | HOU | 25 years old, 3.38 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 27% K-BB in 77 IP

James didn’t make Eric Longenhagen’s Houston prospect list this preseason, but he’s been the king of Carson Cistulli’s Fringe Five series this year, appearing on the list 10 times. The Astros have used the same five starters all year so none of their minor leaguers have gotten a shot, but Lance McCullers Jr. just hit the disabled list. He could be back before they need a fifth starter, but keep James in mind should a longer-term slot open up.

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Once known for having a strong pitching assembly line, the Twins organization now has a strong pipeline for hitters, while the pitching depth has diminished. The system also got stronger — with some pitching additions — at the trade deadline.

Click here for the pre-season Top 10

1. Royce Lewis | SS | A+ —> There is a lot of pressure and expectation that comes with being selected first overall in the draft. Lewis, though, has both the skill and the make-up to handle the assignment — as he’s shown to date. Just 19, he’s blown through the lower levels of the minors and looks ready for a double-A assignment to begin the 2019 season, which would put him in the majors later that year or in 2020 at the age of 21. He has a mature approach at the plate with great coverage and should hit for average, power and rack up lots of steals.

2. Alex Kirilloff | OF | A+ —> For a lot of prospects, a missed year of development would be a huge hurdle to overcome. For Kirilloff, well, he barely batted an eye. After missing the 2017 season, he’s come back from injury to hit .347 while showing plus power potential. He doesn’t walk a ton because he makes such good, hard contact so that’s perhaps his biggest opportunity with the bat but he also doesn’t strike out a lot for someone that projects to hit 20-30 homers. Just 20, he should open 2019 in double-A.

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A strong 2018 draft significantly improved the Royals system – which was light on arms. The focus on college arms gives the system a much needed rebalancing and should allow some prospects to move quickly. The Royals previously focused on raw, toolsy hitters and pitchers but just haven’t been able to find a winning formula for developing those types of players.

Click here for the pre-season Top 10

1. Brady Singer | RHP | DNP —> Those who believe in Singer, sees a top-of-the-rotation arm with the potential for three solid offerings. His fastball works in the mid-to-upper 90s and both his slider and changeup flash potential at times but are inconsistent. He also has the strong frame necessary to be an innings-eater but there are some minor injury concerns given his heavy college workload and a failed physical that wiped out an agreement the Jays had with Singer when he was drafted out of high school.

2. Jackson Kowar | RHP | A —> Kowar has an excellent fastball-changeup combo and an excellent pitchers frame. His breaking ball(s) needs improvement to be an average offering. A tall, thin pitcher, Kowar the makings of an excellent pitcher’s frame once he adds a little more weight/muscle. There is mid-rotation potential here — especially if he continues to mature and add some ticks to his heater while ironing out the breaking ball.

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The Diamondbacks have a solid system with some interesting players within the top 10-15 prospects in the system. But overall, the organization lacks depth.

Click here for the pre-season Top 10

1. Jon Duplantier | RHP | AA —> There is no denying Duplantier’s potential but the checkered medical sheet is worrisome, and the big right-hander (who attended Rice University, which has a reputation for misusing pitchers) has missed a significant chunk of 2018 due to injury. When he’s right, Duplantier shows three above-average offerings, has a great pitcher’s frame and induces a ton of ground-ball outs. There is No. 2/3 starter potential here if he can stay on the field long enough to polish his skills.

2. Daulton Varsho | C | A+ —> I’ve been a huge fan of Daulton since the D-Backs nabbed him with the 68th overall selection in the 2017 draft. He doesn’t have the strongest arm for a catcher but he makes it work and should be able to stick behind the plate (He’s caught 34% of base stealers so far this year). At the plate, Varsho shows the ability to hit for both average and power — and displays his athleticism on the base paths with above-average base running (15 for 18 in steals). He could be ready for The Show in late 2019 or early 2020.

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It’s time for the bi-weekly look at under-the-radar pitching prospects. As a reminder, here is what the rankings are and aren’t:

Are

• A supplement to Eric’s and Kiley’s prospect rankings. This set utilizes stats, age, and some regression to find potential overlooked prospects before they start showing up on major prospect lists.

Aren’t

• A complete list of every prospect. Some will be missed. I don’t care as I’m digging for one-offs. The most likely reason for not being on the list is they haven’t performed, not played much (major factor), or have graduated to the majors. Major league results are also not included.
• The order doesn’t matter at all, at least to me. Why one person is #8 over some guy at #14 compared to other lists is irrelevant. These top prospects are already owned in most leagues. I feel the order only matters to desperate fan bases looking for some much-needed hope.

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