Continuing an annual tradition, this article ranks the top 25 starting pitching prospects by peak projected MLB ERA heading into 2025 (skip to the bottom for the ranking!)

Like the other projection systems at FanGraphs, my projections capture the usual ingredients: past performance weighted by recenecy, regression to the mean that accounts for a player’s probability of making the major leagues, major league equivalencies to adjust for minor league difficulty, aging, park effects, and league scoring environment. The peak projections make use of aging curves to translate a player’s forecast to a late-20s peak forecast. Regardless of where the “true” peak age is, there is broad consensus that most growth happens in the teen years and early-20s, however.

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We just passed roster expansion day, which means a slew of minor leaguers have been called up. Aside from those most recent promotions, there were some names that got the call a bit before roster sizes grew. Let’s discuss the recent callups, whether before or after roster expansion, that should matter in the vast majority of fantasy leagues.

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How can Statcast improve hitting prospect valuations? This article examines the predictive power of prominent Statcast metrics at the Triple-A level.

With Statcast data now publicly available for every Triple-A game since 2023, I wanted to look at how much it helps us evaluate hitting prospects compared to more traditional data. Specifically, this article considers how well several Triple-A metrics from the full 2023 season — wOBAcon (wOBA on contact), xwOBAcon, barrel rate per batted ball event, and 90th percentile exit velocity — predict MLB wOBAcon in 2024 (MLB wOBAcon through the games of July 26th, as I have been working on this piece for a little while now).

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Let’s continue diving into some recent prospect call-ups to determine whether any deserve to join your fantasy squad. In addition to three prospect names, I included a bonus in light of the Austin Riley injury.

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Yesterday, I discussed the Triple-A hitter HR/FB rate leaders, and uncovered a few names that might be worthwhile pickups if they get recalled. In that post, I mentioned that I pivoted away from reviewing the wOBA leaders because many of those marks are driven by unsustainably high BABIPs. I have decided to run that list anyway since overall performance ultimately is what leads to a callup, and the first step to accruing fantasy value is getting to the Majors to begin with! So let’s review the Triple-A wOBA leaders who have recorded at least 200 PAs at the level and are not currently in the Majors.

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With the trade deadline only a couple of weeks away, we’re likely to see a slew of minor leaguers get their opportunity to ascend to the Major Leagues. Since the timing of these promotions are unpredictable and heavily depend on a roster slot opening up, it’s never too early to gather a list of names to monitor so you’re the team that picks them up before having to spend lots of FAAB while competing with your leaguemates.

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Not every top prospect immediately plays at an all-star level during their rookie campaign. Not every former top prospect improves each and every year in lockstep until their big breakout. Sometimes prospects take at least a season or two before it all clicks. Sometimes it clicks, but then pitchers or hitters adjust, and they regress before rebounding. Sometimes prospects simply need some additional time in the minor leagues to iron out their kinks before returning with a bang. Every player is different, so it would be silly to write off former top prospects just because they didn’t meet expectations immediately.

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We’re getting close to 50% completion of the 2024 season, so I thought the time was right for a midseason update to my projections-based prospect ranks. You can find more methodological detail, along with the preseason lists here (bats) and here (arms).

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The Prospect episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: James Anderson

Prospects

• The top prospects already in the major leagues
• Has the new incentives for rookies changed the timing of prospect call-ups?
• Prospects to make an impact in 2024
• Prospects to make an impact in 2025

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

Strategy Section

• Hit rates for prospects
• What translates to short term success for prospects?
• What translates to long term success for prospects?
• How much FAAB should you bid on prospects when they come up to the majors (NFBC)?
• How early should you pick up prospects off of the waiver wire (home leagues)?
• When should you trade for/away prospects in keeper leagues?
• When should you cut bait on a prospect in redraft leagues?

Waiver Wire

Pitcher Preview

Mailbag

Injury Update

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This article ranks the game’s top projected hitting prospects by peak wRC+ heading into 2024 (it does not incorporate any 2024 data). It is a counterpart to this February piece on baseball’s top projected pitching prospects. I only just got done with my offseason methodological updates for hitters–please forgive me for publishing this one week into the season!

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