The general pool of power at third base took a hit recently for Fantasy Leagues when it was announced St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Troy Glaus could miss the first couple of months of the 2009 season due to shoulder surgery. The Cardinals’ options to replace Glaus for the first few months of the season include prospects David Freese and Brian Barden.

Freese was originally obtained by the Cardinals from the Padres in December 2007 for Jim Edmonds. At the time, Freese had just finished up a full season in High-A ball at the age of 24. He hit .302/.400/.489 with an ISO of .187. The third baseman was old for the league and was playing in a very good hitter’s park.

Once in the Cardinals organization, Freese skipped Double-A and began the year in Triple-A, which was certainly a large jump. The 25-year-old had a modest first three months in the league and held his own. The final two months tell the story, though. Freese hit .378/.419/.694 in July and .337/.389/.596 in August. His final line of the season was .306/.361/.550 with an ISO of .244 in 464 at-bats. On the downside, Freese’s rates regressed – but not too badly. His walk rate dropped from 12.2 BB% to 7.8 BB% and his strikeout rate went from 19.7 K% to 23.9 K%.

Barden would seemingly have a better shot at securing the temporary third-base gig because he actually has some big league experience. However, he has a lower ceiling overall and simply has not preformed well in limited MLB experience, with a line of .182/. 217/.205 in 44 at-bats. He does, though, have a career minor league line of .294/.351/.445 in seven seasons. The 27-year-old is better suited to a utility role and emergency call-up for short periods.

Whomever replaces Glaus for April and possibly May, will have smaller than expected shoes to fill – when looking at the incumbent’s output from last season. Glaus hit just three home runs in the first two months with 18 runs scored, 33 RBI and a batting average around .260.

Barden is certainly not a Fantasy option, and Freese probably is not either unless you’re playing in a deep singles league and he is guaranteed the starting role (which he’s not at this point). Glaus is a player you’ll want to monitor and grab once he’s healthy – unless you already have a better option at third.

Peter Bendix took a look at Matt Wieters back in November and came away concluding that Wieters could be Joe Mauer with more power. Those are some pretty lofty expectations. David Golebiewski briefly discussed his AA exploits last month. Now that pretty much all of the projection systems have come out, I think it is a pretty good time to revisit the prospect that has more words written about him than any in recent memory.

Mock Draft Central has the three top catchers (Brian McCann, Russell Martin, and Mauer) checking in between picks 45-50 in their recent drafts. Giovanni Soto is next at about the 65th pick. Matt Wieters is not in the top 75. What can we expect from Wieters? Well, the projections have quite a range. CHONE has him pegged for .274/.352/.439/.791 with 15 HRs in 115 games. They project him to have the 10th best OPS and tied for the 5th best HR total. This is the low-end projections. On the opposite end of the spectrum is the PECOTA projection. He rates as the best catcher in baseball according to PECOTA. His line is .311/.395/.544/.939 with 31 HR and 100+ RBIs and runs. Bill James’ and Oliver lie in between the two extremes. At worst it seems he will be a top 5 offensive catcher next year.

The bigger concern with Wieters is playing time. When will he see the bigs? In front of Wieters is the career backup/part-time option of Greg Zaun. I have a hard time believing that Zaun will hold Wieters off the position, and there is little doubt in my mind that Wieters will perform well enough to warrant a call. I imagine the only thing really holding Wieters back is money. Figuring that the Orioles do not stand a chance to contend this year in the stacked AL East, the O’s may be wise to hold him back to delay his arbitration clock. If attendance starts to wane, then the O’s may be wise to bring up the young stud to put butts in the seat. Seemingly, there is no way they hold him in the minors past June.

When he comes up, he will immediately be at worst one of the better offensive catchers. Most people seem to think, though, that he will be a force. Come summer you will be very, very glad you overdrafted for Wieters. In keeper leagues, he may be one of the best picks made in your draft, similar to Longoria last year. I know I plan on reaching for Wieters in most drafts and then depend on one of the catchers off the trash heap to man the position for a month or two.

Fresh off a glorious World Series title, the Philadelphia Phillies will soon convene for spring training with relatively few roster changes. Outside of a curiously-handled swap of defensively-challenged left fielders (Seattle import Raul Ibanez is several years Pat Burrell’s senior, guaranteed nearly twice as much cash and cost the club a first-round pick), Philly returns with its core intact.

Aside from the obviously crucial health status of Chase Utley (hip), perhaps the most interesting story during March will be the battle for the fifth starter’s job. $20.5 million dollar man Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton are set one through four, but that last slot has a few contenders of varying consequence vying for the job. If we assume for the moment that Carlos Carrasco (Philly’s #2 prospect, per Baseball America) heads back to AAA for some more seasoning and newly-minted Chan Ho Park is probably best kept in the bullpen, then the battle for the last rotation spot comes down to lefty J.A. Happ and right-hander Kyle Kendrick.

Frankly, it doesn’t seem as though there should be much of a competition. Happ, a 26 year-old Northwestern product, is coming off of a stellar campaign at AAA Lehigh Valley. In 135 innings, the lanky 6-6 southpaw whiffed 151 batters (10.07 per nine innings) and walked 3.2 per nine, posting a 3.40 FIP. That strikeout rate might overstate Happ’s case at least somewhat- he’s not overpowering, but he does feature a solid changeup and slider to compensate for an 88-90 MPH fastball.

Happ has a history of making batters appear hapless (sorry), as he has punched out over a batter per inning during his minor league career (545 K in 528.2 IP, or 9.28 K/9). His control isn’t spectacular (3.49 BB/9) and a fly ball tendency (career 40.3 GB%) could be pernicious in Citizen’s Bank Park, so we’re not talking about a can’t miss stud or anything. But Happ’s brand of pitching very likely beats the alternative.

Kyle Kendrick, despite possessing 3 K’s in his name, just doesn’t miss many bats. The 24 year-old has displayed pretty good control in the majors (2.67 BB/9 in 276.2 innings), but his strikeout rate makes Livan Hernandez puff out his chest: Kendrick has a career mark of just 3.81 K/9. Not surprisingly, he has been among the easiest pitchers to make contact with. Only the aforementioned Hernandez (91.3 Contact%) gave batters a more hittable assortment last year among those tossing at least 150 innings, as opponents put the bat on Kendrick’s offerings 89.9% of the time.

The 6-3, 190 pounder managed to hold his head above water in 2007 when he walked just 1.86 batters per nine and posted a 4.94 FIP, but the figure ballooned to 5.55 this past season as he issued 3.3 BB/9 and K’d only 3.93, “good” for a 1.19 K/BB. Even if Kendrick possessed Maddux-esque control, he would be walking a fine line. With a neutral GB/FB ratio and a walk rate above three, he faces very long odds of enjoying major league success.

Happ might not be a sure-fire, flashy prospect, but he has shown the ability to fool hitters throughout his minor league career (something Kendrick didn’t really do either, with 6.28 K/9) and projects to be the better starter. CHONE (which incorporates minor league data) tends to agree, forecasting Happ to post a 4.52 FIP in 2009, compared to 5.11 for Kendrick. If the Phillies get Happ-y, you could do worse than to take a flyer on J.A. in deeper leagues.

Earlier today, we took a gander at high-octane closer candidate Chris Perez. However, Perez is not the only home-grown, gas-pumping reliever who could take over ninth-inning duties for the Cardinals. Many envision Perez becoming St. Louis’ stopper, but Jason Motte poses a formidable roadblock.

While Perez was a well-regarded prospect, developed at a major college program (The University of Miami) that has churned out plenty of high draft picks as of late, Motte’s baseball origins are far less conventional or glamorous. The 6-0, 195 pounder was originally selected in the 19th round of the 2003 draft out of Iona as a catcher. Motte was always lauded for his superb arm strength behind the dish. But the whole…batting thing? It wasn’t really working out. In 614 career minor league at-bats, Motte “hit” a ghastly .191/.220/.233.

Thoroughly convinced that Motte was unable to handle professional pitching, the Cardinals organization decided to shift him to the mound in 2006, hoping that his cannon arm would translate well. Motte worked a total of 39 innings split between State College (New York Penn League) and Quad Cities (Low-A), and the initial results were promising: he posted a 38/7 K/BB ratio with a 2.69 ERA.

The following year, Motte spend just 10 innings with Palm Beach of the High-A Florida State League before being pushed up to AA Springfield, quite the leap for a converted catcher with less than 50 career innings under his belt to that point. Despite his inexperience, Motte made opposing batters look like they were the ones new to their craft, collecting 63 strikeouts in just 49 innings. His control was less than desirable (22 free passes), but he posted a solid 2.96 FIP for Springfield.

St. Louis continued to move Motte through the system aggressively this past season, starting him off at AAA Memphis. Motte had made a habit of missing plenty of bats during his rapid ascent, but his strikeout numbers in the Pacific Coast League were borderline ridiculous: in 66.2 innings, he punched out an absurd 110 batters (14.85 K/9). That figure led the PCL among pitchers tossing at least 60 frames: Dirk Hayhurst finished a very, very distant second with 10.5 K/9. Motte was still occasionally wild (3.51 BB/9), but he posted a 2.29 FIP for Memphis.

Just a few short years after his transition, Motte made his major league debut this past September. Nothing can really be inferred from an 11-inning sample, but the 26 year-old did make a good first impression as he whiffed 16 and walked three. He also showcased his explosive, bat-breaking four-seam fastball: Motte’s average heater came in at 96.6 MPH. He coupled that with an 88 MPH slider, giving batters a “harder, hardest” combo that leaves little time for reaction.

As Baseball America notes, Motte is still messing around with a few different secondary pitches in order to see what sticks: “Motte showed no effective second pitch during his big league stint. He has worked on a slider, cutter and splitter but none is reliable yet.” BA also notes that Motte’s heat is “straight as an arrow” (not surprising, as four-seamers impart the most back-spin on the baseball; the trade-off for the decreased resistance is less tailing action).

It is also worth noting that as Motte jumped levels, he became more of a flyball pitcher: according to Minor League Splits, he posted a 39.1 GB% in AA in 2007 and a 36.7 GB% in AAA this past year. That could lead to a few more souvenirs, though New Busch has done quite the number on HR production since its 2006 opening: Busch III has deflated homers by 16 percent from ’06 to ’08.

Motte is similar to Perez in a number of ways, as both are righties with excellent velocity, intermittent control and nasty-if-inconsistent sliders. It basically seems like a coin flip as to which guy ends up getting the call in the ninth inning as opposed to the eighth. Like with Perez, fantasy owners will want to watch Motte this spring to see if his blazing fastball and ability to fool hitters is enough to counteract average control and just occasionally effective off-speed stuff.

The Toronto Blue Jays have reportedly made an offer to free agent first baseman Kevin Millar, formerly of the Baltimore Orioles, and best known for his time in Boston. The offer is believed to be a minor league deal with the idea of employing him as a part-time bench player. That certainly is the correct role for Millar, a good clubhouse guy, at this point in his career.

Millar’s offensive numbers have been plummeting for the past three seasons and he is of no use to Fantasy Baseball owners, even in AL-only leagues. In the past three seasons, his line has gone from .272/.374/.437 to .254/.365/.420 to .234/.323/.394. Interestingly, his playing time increased each season from 503 to 562 to 610 plate appearances, which says a lot (and nothing good) about the situation in Baltimore. On the plus side, Millar’s power has remained constant (right around .160 ISO) for the past three years. He also takes his healthy share of walks (13.8 BB% in 2007, 11.8 BB% in 2008).

The problem with this potential signing, from a Fantasy perspective, is the negative impact it could have on the playing times of better players. Millar is a first baseman who also spends time at designated hitter. That means he will cut into the playing time of first baseman Lyle Overbay. It also, more importantly, cuts into the playing time of young, promising outfielders Adam Lind and Travis Snider. Lind is more advanced than Snider and could have a fairly productive season, if allowed to play everyday, with the occasional rest against a tough southpaw. Snider has the potential to be a massive star. He will not achieve those lofty heights in 2009 (in part due to his affinity for the strikeout), but there is a danger that he could end up sitting on the bench a fair bit, or find himself on the bus to Triple-A Las Vegas for a good portion of the season. Toronto is not going to contend in 2009, so the club might as well field its young, promising players.

It’s a fair question to ask: which Washington entity has endured larger struggles since 2005- the executive and legislative branches of our government, or the Washington Nationals? While the former has implemented a pair of “bailout” packages to quell an economic maelstrom, the Nats very much remain a toxic asset.

Fresh off a sordid 102-loss campaign in which the club posted a run differential of -184, Washington’s big league ballclub could use all the help they can get. Luckily, if you squint really hard, you can see the beginnings of a turnaround.

Talented-but-volatile outfielder Elijah Dukes turned in an impressive season (a .382 wOBA with plus defense in right field). Center fielder Lastings Milledge and backstop Jesus Flores have oscillated between tantalizing and frustrating since arriving from the New York Mets via a trade and the Rule V Draft, respectively. Third baseman Ryan Zimmerman has sort of stagnated at the plate (wOBA’s from 2006-2008: .348, .340, .336), but the Virginia product is still just 24 years old and has been a big asset overall with an average of 3.9 Value Wins over the past three seasons. The offense was pretty lousy last season (with a .309 wOBA that ranked ahead of only the A’s), but one can at least dream upon Dukes and Zimmerman blossoming into all-around forces while simultaneously praying that Flores and Milledge can harness their control of the strike zone.

While there are some offensive pieces to the contending puzzle present, the rotation remains rather bleak. The Nats’ starting pitchers placed 28th in team FIP, faring better than only the lowly Rangers and Orioles. Presently, Washington’s rotation hopes lie in the hands of imports Daniel Cabrera and Scott Olsen, once-promising arms whose performances have tailed off dramatically. While expecting a rebound from either Cabrera or Olsen is a dubious proposition and incumbent “ace” John Lannan looks more like an adequate back-end starter than any sort of rotation headliner, Washington does have one potential ace up its sleeve.

Jordan Zimmermann, a 22 year-old right-hander, has quickly established himself as the top pitching prospect in the organization. A second-round pick in 2007 out of Division III Wisconsin-Stevens Point, Zimmermann signed for $495,000 as the 67th player taken overall. As Baseball America noted at the time, a confluence of factors caused the four-pitch righty to hover under the radar somewhat:

“Scouts haven’t had an easy time following him this spring, however. Zimmermann broke his jaw in two places when he was struck by a batted ball while pitching live batting practice during an offseason workout. He missed three games and lost 10 pounds, and having wisdom teeth pulled during the season didn’t help him regain his strength. Bad early-season weather also made it difficult to keep him on a regular schedule.”

While that string of inauspicious events limited his scouting exposure, Zimmermann has enjoyed nothing but good luck since signing on the dotted line. Sent to the New York Penn League in the summer of ’07, the 6-2, 200 pounder immediately opened eyes in a 49-inning stint. The 2007 Division III College World Series MVP punched out 62 batters (11.39 K/9) and walked 16 (2.94 BB/9), posting a 2.18 FIP in the process.

One might expect a grizzled college pitcher to feast upon younger, less-experienced batters, but Zimmermann continued to eat up batsmen in 2008. Assigned to High-A Potomac to begin the year, Zimmermann quickly proved that his low-90’s heat, hard upper-80’s slider, mid-70’s hook and low-80’s changeup were no match for the Carolina League. In 27.1 frames, he compiled a 31/8 K/BB ratio and a 2.29 FIP. Bumped up to Double-A Harrisburg, Zimmermann continued to miss bats (8.69 K/9) and exhibited decent control (3.29 BB/9) in 106.2 innings (good for a 3.55 FIP). He kept the ball on the ground at both levels as well, with a 55 GB% at Potomac and a slightly above-average 48 GB% at Harrisburg.

There’s much to like about Zimmermann from both a statistical and scouting viewpoint. He has whiffed over a batter per inning during his rapid ascent through the minors, while exhibiting solid enough control and earning the adulation of the scouting community at the same time. Zimmermann ranked as Washington’s number one prospect following the ’08 season (per Baseball America) and checked in at #42 on Keith Law’s ranking of the top 100 prospects in the game. Said Law:

“Zimmermann is a classic four-pitch pitcher who changes speeds well and commands his stuff, locating his 90-94 mph four-seamer to all parts of the zone. He also keeps the ball down. His best pitch remains his mid-80s slider, short and tight with good tilt, although his curve is tighter now than it was when he was an amateur. Plus, he turns his changeup over well….He’s not a potential ace but a very high-probability No. 3 with a chance to be better than that because of his plus command.”

Zimmermann might not be the classic fire-breathing pitching prospect who causes radar guns to melt, but his deep repertoire, strong peripherals and quick rise up the organizational ladder suggest that he could establish himself as Washington’s top arm in short order. Given the paucity of alternatives and the likelihood that the ballclub will spend another year in the NL East’s basement, the Nationals have every reason to give Zimmermann a look sometime during the 2009 season. Washington’s other Zimmerman(n) should stimulate a stagnant starting five and is well worth a look in fantasy leagues when he gets the call.

We’re reaching the home stretch in our “Prospects in Proper Context” series, as we turn our attention to the AAA International League today. It’s often said that Triple-A is more of a holding cell for veterans and Quad-A-type players than a level that truly promising youngsters spend a good deal of time at, and this list bears that out. As such, I broke one of my own rules for this list: I lowered the minimum AB necessary to qualify for the list from 200 to 150, to squeeze in a sweet-swinging right fielder for the Reds. The point of these posts is to get a grasp on who has the most potential once age and offensive environment are taken into account. Leaving off Jay Bruce would just be silly. The first two players profiled have the necessary skills to become championship-caliber assets, but the rankings thin out from there.

Here are links to the other six parts of our prospects series:

High-A
Florida State League
Carolina League
California League

Double-A
Texas League
Southern League
Eastern League

(note: 2008 league offensive levels are found courtesy of First Inning. Keep in mind that the league offensive levels are only from one season’s worth of data. Park factors are from 2006-2008 data compiled from Minor League Splits, posted on the Baseball Think Factory site. A park factor of 1.00 is exactly neutral. Anything above 1.00 favors hitters, while anything below 1.00 favors pitchers. The Park Adjusted Line (PAL) and Major League Equivalency (MLE) figures are compiled from Minor League Splits. A 150 AB cut-off was used for the list.)

AAA International League offensive Levels: Singles (0.91), Doubles (1.02), Triples (1.01), Home Runs (0.99)

1. Jay Bruce, Reds: .437 wOBA (.364/.393/.630)
Age: 21 (22 in April)
Position: RF
2006-2008 Park Factor (Louisville): Runs (1.05), Hits (1.03), Doubles (1.00), Home Runs (0.97)
Park Adjusted Line (PAL): .359/.388/.641
Major League Equivalency (MLE): .310/.333/.540

The amateur draft has justifiably been called a crapshoot. Despite the presence of highly talented and nuanced scouting departments that check and cross-check hundreds of players each year, there is a high degree of volatility in the process. Baseball’s draft just isn’t like those of its professional contemporaries, the NBA and the NFL; most players selected have plenty of development left and are years away from contributing at the highest level. Because of this, the amateur draft’s history is littered with high picks who just never refined their skills or ultimately had a flaw that kept them from reaching the lofty standards set by the player’s organization.

The outfield class from the 2005 draft, however, is shaping up to be an exception to the rule. Take a look at the absurd amount of fly-catching talent: first-round selections included Justin Upton (quickly moved off shortstop, Ryan Braun (sent to left field after a, ahem, bad year at third base), Cameron Maybin, Andrew McCutchen, Jay Bruce, Jacoby Ellsbury, Colby Rasmus and Travis Buck. Ellsbury looks more solid than spectacular and Buck has endured some injury problems, but Upton, Braun, Maybin, McCutchen, Bruce and Rasmus could all be described as organizational pillars. Teams could have played “pin-the-tail-on-the-outfield-prospect” and came away with a stud.

Bruce’s exploits have already been covered here in detail. Suffice it to say, a guy who posts a near-.200 ISO when he’s just barely old enough to drink deserves plenty of acclaim. I’ll leave you with this excerpt from the article:

“Bruce is obviously an extremely valuable long-term property. In keeper leagues, he should be near the top of your list. However, I would caution against going too hog-wild for him in 2009. He’s a very bright young player with star-caliber talent, but he also has some rough edges to smooth out in the plate discipline department. Select Bruce knowing that he has the ability to become a star, but also knowing that he might not quite reach that level this upcoming season.”

2. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates: .347 wOBA (.283/.372/.398)
Age: 22 (21 during ’08 season)
Position: CF
2006-2008 Park Factor (Indianapolis): R (0.99), H (1.01), 2B (1.00), HR (0.98)
PAL: .278/.367/.391
MLE: .238/.313/.325

As noted above, McCutchen was part of that ridiculous 2005 outfield crop. While the Fort Meade (FL) native might lack the punch of prospect contemporaries like Bruce, Maybin and Rasmus, McCutchen more than held his own as a 21 year-old in AAA. The 5-11, 175 pounder probably won’t hit for more than doubles power, though some (including ESPN’s Keith Law) feel that there might be more thump to come if he alters his swing:

“McCutchen has strong wrists and forearms and makes hard contact, but doesn’t get his lower half involved at all and thus hasn’t hit for the kind of power he’s capable of producing.”

Law also rightly points out that McCutchen has been pushed up the ladder pretty rapidly, skipping High-A ball entirely by jumping straight from the South Atlantic League to the Eastern League in 2006. McCutchen made excellent strides in working the count at Indianapolis this past year, raising his walk rate from about 8% in years past to 11.7%, while also cutting his K rate to 17%. An excellent athlete, McCutchen remains pretty raw on the base paths (he swiped 34 bags in ’08, but he was caught 19 times for a poor 64% success rate) but has shown plenty of range in the field.

His plus glove will likely move incumbent Nate McLouth out of center field sooner rather than later, a positive development despite McLouth’s odd Gold Glove selection. Both John Dewan’s Plus/Minus system (-40) and our UZR data (-15.1 UZR/150) suggest that Nate is stretched patrolling center. Moving McLouth to a corner and inserting McCutchen should aid a beleaguered Pittsburgh pitching staff.

For more on McCutchen, check out Peter Bendix’s article here.

3. Jed Lowrie, Red Sox: .350 wOBA (.268/.359/.434)
Age: 24 (25 in April)
Position: SS
2006-2008 Park Factor (Pawtucket): R (1.02), H (1.00), 2B (0.97), HR (1.18)
PAL: .263/.355/.419
MLE: .224/.299/.351

This switch-hitting Stanford product has made steady progress since the Red Sox selected him in the supplemental 1st round of the 2005 amateur draft. A career .281/.387/.446 minor league hitter, Lowrie has a discerning eye at the plate that helped him draw a walk 13.5% of the time at Pawtucket. Making his major league debut while filling in for an injured Julio Lugo, Lowrie performed admirably, batting .258/.339/.400 in 306 PA. Jed does not possess a whole lot of power in his 6-0, 190 pound frame, but his combination of walks and doubles power could make him an asset to the Sox. To boot, Lowrie’s defensive scouting reports are reading better these days, and his initial work in Boston rated well.

There are some negatives, though: at 25, Lowrie probably does not have a whole lot of development left in him, meaning what you see is what you get, and his strikeout rates have elevated as he’s ascended through the farm system.

In 2009, Lowrie will battle the incumbent Lugo for the starting shortstop gig. Lugo hasn’t really hit much since signing a 4-year, $36M deal with the Sox before the 2007 season. The 33 year-old has posted wOBA’s of .293 and 317 in ’07 and ’08, respectively. CHONE projects Lugo to post a .319 wOBA in 2009, compared to .335 for Lowrie. One could make the argument that Lugo’s glove makes the difference, but Lugo has posted two campaigns in negative UZR/150 territory over the past three seasons. Lowrie appears to be the superior player at this point, though it’s not a runaway win.

For more on Lowrie, check out Brian Joura’s article here.

4. Matthew Joyce, Rays: .384 wOBA (.270/.352/.550)
Age: 24 (23 during ’08 season)
Position: OF
2006-2008 Park Factor (Toledo): R (0.95), H (0.98), 2B (1.07), HR (0.90)
PAL: .275/.357/.565
MLE: .234/.304/.463

Before Joyce was shipped to Tampa Bay for Edwin Jackson in a rather questionable swap for the Tigers, he mashed for Toledo in the International League and more than held his own in Detroit. In the articled linked to above, Dave Cameron compares Joyce to a Jayson Werth-type player, and the comparison seems apt from this writer’s vantage point. Both are very rangy corner outfielders who absolutely mash opposite-handed pitching, while having some issues with same-side hurlers.

While Werth is a right-handed hitter demolishing southpaws, the lefty-swinging Joyce hammers righties. In his minor league career, the Florida Southern product has batted .294/.355/.475 versus right-handers, compared to .239/.328/.393 versus those pesky left-handers. In 2008, Joyce creamed International League righties to the tune of .286/.366/.610 and continued to treat them rudely in the majors (.255/.333/.509). Overall, the 12th-round selection in the ’05 draft posted a .355 wOBA in his first big league action, with an 11.4 BB%.

Joyce is certainly not a perfect player-he has issues with lefties and will swing and miss pretty frequently- but if properly utilized, he could be a large asset to both the Rays and fantasy owners alike. In his article examining Joyce, Peter Bendix summed it up perfectly:

“Matt Joyce is probably not a top tier fantasy outfielder, thanks to his struggles against left handed pitching. However, there are far more righties than lefties out there for him to face, and Joyce should mash against righties, and could supply 25-30 homers even if he’s platooned, thus making him a very valuable commodity late in drafts.”

5. Denard Span, Twins: .407 wOBA (.340/.434/.481)
Age: 24 (25 in February)
Position: OF
2006-2008 Park Factor (Rochester): R (1.00), H (1.00), 2B (1.03), HR (1.00)
PAL: .346/.440/.487
MLE: .298/.379/.391

Entering the 2008 season, Span was fighting for his prospect life. The 2002 first-round pick had been a perennial disappointment, posting a lukewarm .282/.349/.347 career line through 2007. In 2008, it was almost as if Span emerged as a new player, doing his best Kenny Lofton impersonation along the way.

While Span’s AAA work was batting average-fueled, his time with the Twins was pretty impressive: in 411 PA, he drew a free pass 12.6% of the time and compiled a .387 OBP. I took a look at Span earlier this offseason, attempting to figure out whether or not his ’08 showing was just a flash in the pan or a harbinger of things to come. While I wouldn’t go quite so far as to expect a repeat performance, I think that Span has made some legitimate changes that portend to long-term success:

“Ordinarily, one might regard Span’s season as a blip, a flash in the pan. How often does a career disappointment suddenly start raking in the majors? However, there are some reasons to think that Span made some legitimate improvements in his game this past season. He drew walks at a 12.6% clip for the Twinkies while keeping his K rate in check (17.3%). His contact rate was a healthy 88.7%, and he almost never strayed from the strike zone, with an OSwing% of just 16.7%. That was the 10th-lowest figure among batters with at least 400 PA. Span’s stolen base prowess improved somewhat, at least to the point where he wasn’t harming his team (using the .22 run value for a SB and the -.38 value for a CS, Span’s 18/25 season came out to a net positive of 1.3 runs).”

“It’s not that uncommon for a player to experience a single-season hike in batting average or power, but it’s far more rare for a batter to show much-improved plate patience and then give all of those gains back the following year. Span’s increased walk rate and very low O-Swing% paint the picture of a hitter who refined his control of the strike zone and took a more mature approach with him to the batter’s box.”

If Span retains the patient approach that he brought with him to Minnesota, he could be a valuable commodity as a high-OBP player with some speed.

After hitting below .190 in his first two pro seasons combined (479 at-bats), it looked like Robert Andino was going to be a bust. The 2002 second round draft pick out of high school improved the next season, though, and hit .280 between two A-ball levels. At the end of 2005, he earned a late-season call-up to Florida and played in 17 games but hit just .159/.245/.250.

In 2006, Andino began his first of three straight seasons in Triple-A. He hit .256/.304/.364 and received another brief call-up to the Majors. The next season, the shortstop had his best full season in the minors and hit .278/.322/.428 in 598 at-bats with 13 triples, 13 home runs and 21 stolen bases (although he was caught 13 times). Andino received his third Major League stint and appeared in seven games.

Finally, in 2008, the Miami native had the chance to spend some significant time in Florida. He appeared in just 43 Triple-A games, while spending the rest of the season in the Majors. That said, he managed to get into just 44 games and had only 63 at-bats while hitting .206/.254/.333 with an ISO of .127. He also posted rates of 6.0 BB% and 36.5 K% while being shuttled between the Majors and Triple-A all season long.

Recently in the newspaper, Andino expressed a desire to play or be traded. It’s not surprising that the 24 year old does not see a future for himself in Florida with Hanley Ramirez at shortstop (.308/.400/.540 career) and Dan Uggla at second base (.262/.341/.490 career). The club also traded for young second baseman Emilio Bonifacio earlier in the off-season. The problem for Andino, though, is that he has little trade value at this point because he has yet to prove that he can hit Major League pitching.

Andino is also out of options, which means he’ll have to go through waivers if Florida attempts to send him down at any point in 2009. The Pittsburgh Pirates were rumored to have been interested in Andino earlier in the winter. There is a lot of varying thought on Andino, who strikes out way too much for a player with modest power. He also does not take advantage of his speed due to poor instincts on the base paths. The CHONE projection system suggests a 2009 line of .237/.296/.352 (in 489 at-bats), while Marcel projects .262/.326/.410 (in 219 at-bats).

It’s possible that everything could click for the athletic Andino is 2009, but a lot of things have to go right for that to happen, including a trade or waiver claim to get him out of Florida.

Some guys get all the breaks and some guys get no breaks. Joe Koshansky of the Colorado Rockies falls squarely into the latter group, thanks in no small part to the presence of Mr. Rockie Todd Helton.

Koshansky has slugged 83 home runs in the past three seasons, including 21 in Triple-A in 2007 and 31 in Triple-A in 2008. The 26-year-old first baseman has also shown the ability to hit for a respectable average in Triple-A, having posted lines of .295/.380/.490 in 2007 and .300/.380/.600 in 2008. His ISO was an eye-popping .300 (anyone with an ISO above .200 is considered a power hitter). The left-handed hitter was no softy against southpaws in 2008. He managed a line of .310/.372/.612 in 116 at-bats.

The former sixth round drafted pick out of the University of Virginia, who signed as a senior selection, is running out of time to prove himself. He’ll be 27 in May, which is about the time power hitters tend to hit their stride. Koshansky is roughly the same build as Richie Sexson (although he’s about four inches shorter than the former Cleveland Indians first baseman). Sexson lost his mojo at the age of 32.

Koshansky’s biggest weakness would be the strikeout. He has posted strikeout rates in the past three seasons of 26.8%, 25.7%, and 34.6%. The first baseman has also begun to earn a bit of a reputation as a possible Quad-A slugger thanks to his struggles at the Major League level in the past two seasons, albeit in a small sample size. Koshansky has a career line of .180/.236/.440 with three home runs in 50 at-bats. Both the CHONE and Marcel projection systems see Koshansky as a .250 hitter. CHONE sees Koshansky as having the ability to slug 25 home runs at the Major League level with regular playing time. Those numbers are not outstanding, but there are a few teams in Major League Baseball that could use that kind of power production.

At 35, Helton’s best days as a power hitter are behind him after managing home run totals of 15, 17, and seven in the past three seasons. Even so, Helton is still a .300 hitter (the injury-marred 2008 season aside) and, in his last two healthy seasons in 2006 and 2007, he drove in a total of 207 runs. He also scored 172 runs. Coming off a poor season due to injuries, and with three more years plus an option remaining on his contract totaling just shy of $60 million, Helton is not going anywhere.

It’s also disconcerting for Koshansky’s future in Colorado that he did not receive more opportunities in 2008 after Helton appeared in just 83 games. The Louisiana native was given just eight starts at first base last season and the club moved third baseman Garrett Atkins across the diamond to allow Ian Stewart the opportunity to play everyday at the hot corner during Helton’s time off.

Clearly, if Koshansky is going to earn a fair shot at a starting role at the Major League level it is not going to come in Colorado. Teams that could use a first baseman or designated hitter include Washington, Florida, Seattle, Los Angeles (AL), and Baltimore (although that club has a crowded outfield picture).

Today, we’ll wrap up our look at the top offensive prospects in Double-A with the Eastern League. In case you haven’t gotten the chance to check out the lists for the High-A level and the other two Double-A levels or you would just like a refresher, here they are:

High-A
Florida State League
Carolina League
California League

Double-A
Texas League
Southern League

The Eastern League list leads off with a familiar face who might just be the best prospect in the game, and the rankings feature depth to boot. Among those receiving consideration but not appearing in the top five: outfielders Austin Jackson (Yankees), Nicholas Evans (Mets), Daniel Murphy (Mets), Jose Tabata (Pirates), Nolan Reimold (Orioles), shortstop Jason Donald (Phillies) and third baseman Wes Hodges (Indians). Red Sox first base prospect Lars Anderson missed the 200 PA cut-off.

(note: 2008 league offensive levels are found courtesy of First Inning. Keep in mind that the league offensive levels are only from one season’s worth of data. Park factors are from 2006-2008 data compiled from Minor League Splits, posted on the Baseball Think Factory site. A park factor of 1.00 is exactly neutral. Anything above 1.00 favors hitters, while anything below 1.00 favors pitchers. The Park Adjusted Line (PAL) and Major League Equivalency (MLE) figures are compiled from Minor League Splits. A 200 PA cut-off was used for the list.)

AA Eastern League offensive levels: Singles (0.96), Doubles (1.00), Triples (1.00), Home Runs (1.00)

1. Matt Wieters, Orioles: .472 wOBA (.365/.460/.626)
Age: 22
Position: C
2006-2008 Park Factor (Bowie): Runs (0.95), Hits (0.97), Doubles (1.00), Home Runs (1.03)
Park-Adjusted Line: .376/.470/.639
Major League Equivalency: .295/.395/.479

I think that we have run out of superlatives to describe Matt Wieters. The switch-hitting, power-hitting Georgia Tech product also paced out Carolina League list, and what was said of him there still applies:

“Wieters’ performance was head-and-shoulders above everyone else. He switch-hits. He draws a ton of walks. He can drive the ball as far as anyone. Wieters’ performance actually improved significantly upon a promotion to Double A. Think about that: his .345/.448/.576 line at Frederick (High-A) was his weaker showing in 2008. He even comes with a pretty solid defensive reputation, despite being a pretty large human being (6-4, 230 pounds). Earlier this offseason, Peter Bendix wondered if Wieters might be Joe Mauer with more power. This Pirates fan is going to go cry himself to sleep, haunted by memories of Daniel Moskos.”

Check out Wieters’ Major League Equivalency at Bowie- his performance basically reminds one of…well, Joe Mauer with more power. Gregg Zaun is the O’s starting catcher for the moment. But when he steps aside and reclaims his role as the “Practically Perfect Backup Catcher”, Wieters figures to rake from day one.

2. Travis Snider, Blue Jays: .366 wOBA (.262/.357/.461)
Age: 21 (20 during ’08 season)
Position: LF/DH
2006-2008 Park Factor (New Hampshire): R (1.01), H (0.99), 2B (1.04), HR (1.05)
PAL: .276/.367/.459
MLE: .222/.315/.354

21 in February, Snider will never be known for his defensive prowess- at 5-11 and 245 pounds, his build brings to mind that of Matt Stairs. The lefty might be relegated to DH duty in the long run, but man, can he hit. Taken with the 14th overall selection in the 2006 amateur draft, the Washington prep product has compiled a career .299/.375/.513 line in the minors, and he more than held his own during a short stint with the Jays this past September, batting .301/.338/.466 in 80 PA. At New Hampshire, Snider posted a near-.200 ISO as a 21 year-old while also showcasing a good eye with a 12.6 BB%. His contact rate is somewhat concerning (he whiffed 36.1% of the time at High-A and 32% at AA), but Toronto’s best young hitter possesses the secondary skills to make up for a middling batting average.

3. Louis Marson, Phillies: .391 wOBA (.314/.433/.416)
Age: 22
Position: C
2006-2008 Park Factor (Reading): R (1.03), H (1.00), 2B (0.96), HR (1.22)
PAL: .317/.433/.416
MLE: .249/.369/.322

Lou Marson’s career got off to something of a slow start (from 2004-2006, he posted OBP’s between .329-.343 and SLG%’s between .351-.389), but he’s made major strides over the past two seasons. The 4th-round pick from the ’04 draft has uncanny control of the strike zone- he drew a free pass an astounding 17.4% of the time at Reading. While no one questions Marson’s plate approach, there are concerns over his power ceiling (Marson’s ISO was just .102). It’s possible that the walks will dry up somewhat at the highest level (pitchers might not be so stringent with a low-power guy with a great eye- the worst that can happen in most cases is a single). If you want to be really optimistic, you could think of Marson as Russell Martin-lite, though Kurt Suzuki might be a more reasonable approximation.

4. J.P. Arencibia, Blue Jays: .348 wOBA (.282/.302/.496)
Age: 23 (22 during ’08 season)
Position: C
2006-2008 Park Factor (New Hampshire): R (1.01), H (0.99), 2B (1.04), HR (1.05)
PAL: .292/.311/.485
MLE: .243/.262/.388

One could make the argument that Arencibia should rank ahead of Marson on the basis of his power- Arencibia has a career .481 slugging percentage in the minors as well as a .214 ISO at New Hampshire on the heels of a .246 showing at High-A Dunedin. While Marson’s biggest question is his pop, Arencibia’s most glaring weakness is his plate discipline. Arencibia wasn’t exactly patient at Dunedin (4.2 BB%) and his hacking tendency only intensified upon reaching Double-A: he walked just 2.6% of the time at New Hampshire, posting a ghastly 0.13 BB/K ratio. Arencibia ranks well on the basis of his offensive thunder at a premium position, but major league pitchers are going to carve him up if he doesn’t learn to show a little restraint.

5. Fernando Martinez, Mets: .346 wOBA (.287/.340/.432)
Age: 20 (19 during ’08 season)
Position: Corner OF
2006-2008 Park Factor (Binghamton): R (1.05), H (1.05), 2B (1.04), HR (1.05)
PAL: .274/.328/.416
MLE: .222/.278/.328

Martinez is the most polarizing name on this list- it seems as though some are very strong proponents of the $1.3 million Dominican bonus baby, feeling that he has performed quite well in advanced leagues at an exceptionally young age. Others are less enthusiastic, particularly noting his durability issues (according to Baseball America, a bone bruise and a knee sprain in ’06, a broken hamate bone in ’07 and hamstring problems in ’08). Setting aside his numerous ailments, Martinez possesses a tremendous amount of talent. The lefty batter has not set the world afire during his pro career, but his numbers become considerably more impressive when you check his birth certificate- Martinez was several years younger than most of his peers. How many teenagers could avoid embarrassing themselves just two steps away from the majors, let alone hold their own like Martinez did?