Prospects in Proper Context, Pt. 8: AAA Pacific Coast League

Our “Prospects in Proper Context” series reaches its end today, as we uncover the most promising bats to grace the AAA Pacific Coast League in 2008. As was the case with the International League, the PCL features an abundance of grizzled minor league veterans at the pinnacle of the wOBA scale: those in the top 10 include Russell Branyan, Micah Hoffpauir, Nelson Cruz, Paul McAnulty, Jason Dubois and Andy Green. However, there was still quite the collection of promising (if imperfect) bats to choose from. Players such as Jeff Clement, Ian Stewart, Sean Rodriguez, Wladimir Balentien and Bryan Anderson just missed the top five.

Here are links to the other seven parts of our prospects series:

High-A
Florida State League
Carolina League
California League

Double-A
Texas League
Southern League
Eastern League

Triple-A
International League

(note: 2008 league offensive levels are found courtesy of First Inning. Keep in mind that the league offensive levels are only from one season’s worth of data. Park factors are from 2006-2008 data compiled from Minor League Splits, posted on the Baseball Think Factory site. A park factor of 1.00 is exactly neutral. Anything above 1.00 favors hitters, while anything below 1.00 favors pitchers. The Park Adjusted Line (PAL) and Major League Equivalency (MLE) figures are compiled from Minor League Splits. A 150 AB cut-off was used for the list.)

AAA Pacific Coast League offensive levels: Singles (0.89), Doubles (1.08), Triples (1.02), Home Runs (1.12)

1. Colby Rasmus, Cardinals: .335 wOBA (.251/.346/.396)
Age: 22 (21 during ’08 season)
Position: CF
2006-2008 Park Factor (Memphis): Runs (0.96), Hits (0.97), Doubles (0.96), Home Runs (1.00)
Park Adjusted Line (PAL): .261/.355/.406
Major League Equivalency (MLE): .216/.290/.321

You might be asking yourself, “how does a guy with those numbers lead off this list?” While Rasmus’ overall line looks tepid, he battled groin and knee injuries (the latter of which prematurely ended his season in July) and he was starting to hit like his old self before going down with the sprained knee (.333/.441/.535 in 99 June AB). A member of the absurdly gifted 2005 outfield draft class, Rasmus had a pristine track record prior to ’08 and has authored a career .277/.366/.485 line. The 6-2, 185 pound lefty is one of the more well-rounded prospects that you’re going to find, as he works the count (career 13 BB%), can sting the ball (.208 ISO), swipes some bags (career 81% success rate, including 15/18 in 2008) and plays a plus center field.

Earlier this offseason, prospect guru Marc Hulet examined Rasmus’ chances of breaking into St. Louis’ crowded outfield and concluded the following:

“Some eyes were raised when Rasmus declined the opportunity to play winter ball to help make up for lost time and perhaps accelerate his big-league timetable. Regardless, he could very well surface in St. Louis by mid-season if he gets off to a respectable start to the 2009 season. Rasmus may initially struggle to hit for average, but he should be productive and Fantasy Baseball owners should track his progress closely.”

Don’t let Rasmus’ 2008 numbers sway you too much: his tools-laden game and past performance suggest this was just a tiny blip for a player who could end up being a championship-caliber performer.

2. Chase Headley, Padres: .401 wOBA (.305/.383/.556)
Age: 24
Position: LF/3B
2006-2008 Park Factor (Portland): R (0.93), H (0.94), 2B (0.97), HR (1.05)
PAL: .324/.400/.575
MLE: .269/.329/.455

The Padres are rather short on premium young talent, but Headley represents the club’s best chance of cultivating a home-grown stud. The former Tennessee Volunteer has really put a charge into the ball over the past two years: after slugging .426 in 2005 and .434 in 2006, Headley posted a .580 mark at AA San Antonio in 2007 and a slugged at a .556 clip at Portland this past season. The switch-hitter works the count well (10.7 BB% with Portland), though fairly low contact rates are at least somewhat troubling (he whiffed 25.1% of the time in AAA, 26.3% in AA in ’07). Headley saw considerable playing time for the Padres last summer, batting a respectable .269/.337/.420 in 368 PA (he did K 31.4% of the time, however).

Earlier this offseason, Peter Bendix took a look at Headley’s track record and poked a few holes in it, noting Headley’s relatively advanced age, contact issues and the power-sapping environs of Petco Park. The odds of Headley becoming a star probably aren’t great, but he’s pretty much assured of everyday playing time in 2009 and has enough secondary skills to hold his own.

3. Brandon Wood, Angels: .405 wOBA (.296/.375/.595)
Age: 23 (24 in March)
Position: SS/3B
2006-2008 Park Factor (Salt Lake): R (1.06), H (1.04), 2B (0.96), HR (1.07)
PAL: .284/.364/.577
MLE: .235/.299/.446

It feels as though Wood has been adorning prospects list forever, doesn’t it? The soon-to-be 24 year-old has a long history of hitting for prodigious power, though a few Angles affiliates (High-A Rancho Cucamonga and Salt Lake in particular) reside in very favorable offensive leagues. The 6-3, 185 pounder appears stuck in a holding pattern right now: he has little left to prove at AAA, but just where he resides on the diamond long-term remains to be seen.

The Angles will likely continue to struggle in the run-scoring department, particularly in a post-Teixeira world (Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system pegs LAA for 778 runs scored in 2009, 9th in the AL), so Wood’s pop could come in handy. Incumbent shortstop Erick Aybar has been rather feeble in the batter’s box to this point (career .286 wOBA). However, his glove work is well-regarded, whereas Wood is considered merely functional at the position. In the long haul, the most probable scenario entails Wood being installed at the hot corner, with Chone Figgins returning to a super-utility role.

Like Headley, Wood’s biggest drawback is his frequent propensity to swing and miss. Over the past two years in AAA, the 2003 first-rounder has punched out about 27% of the time. In 157 PA for the Halos last year, Wood whiffed 28.7% with a 2.6 BB%. Strikeouts certainly don’t preclude a player from being highly productive, but such a high rate does raise questions about Wood’s ability to handle breaking stuff at the highest level. Overall, Wood is a tough player to gauge: he could be a highly valuable commodity if he sticks at short and does enough in the walks and power department to offset a low batting average, an average to above-average player at third or a flameout who doesn’t adjust to big-league pitching.

4. Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies: .329 wOBA (.283/.344/.416)
Age: 23 (22 during ’08 season)
Position: CF/LF
2006-2008 Park Factor (Sacramento): R (0.94), H (0.96), 2B (0.97), HR (0.89)
PAL: .297/.356/.430
MLE: .250/.298/.341

The twice-traded Gonzalez proved that he could cover the gaps in Oakland last season (17.5 UZR/150), and the Venezuelan lefty has shown solid power during the course of his minor league career (.286/.340/.473). CarGo has youth and tools on his side, but he has quite a bit of work to do in terms of honing his control of the strike zone. In 316 PA with Oakland, Gonzalez walked just 4.1% of the time and chased 32.5% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. He was never particularly patient in the minors, either, with a career 7.8 BB%. I took a look at Gonzalez earlier this offseason following his trade to Colorado and came to the following conclusion:

“Gonzalez is headed to the best offensive environment in baseball, but it would be best to take a wait-and-see approach with the 23 year-old. While he has shown a solid amount of power in the minors, he has also posted low walk rates and relatively high strikeout totals. Gonzalez is essentially a lottery ticket for the Rockies and for fantasy owners: if his plate discipline improves to an acceptable level, he could be a star-caliber performer. If not, he might just be a Juan Encarnacion-type with more defensive value.”

5. Andy LaRoche, Pirates: .402 wOBA (.293/.452/.439)
Age: 25 (24 during ’08 season)
Position: 3B
2006-2008 Park Factor (Las Vegas): R (1.09), H (1.06), 2B (1.08), HR (1.08)
PAL: .276/.440/.423
MLE: .218/.349/.323

LaRoche is something of a forgotten man on the prospect landscape, as an execrable beginning to his major league career (.255 wOBA in 367 PA) has left a sour taste in the mouths of many. However, the career .294/.380/.517 minor league hitter has an interesting blend of skills and could prove to be a solid offensive cog for Pittsburgh. Adam’s brother combines gap power with a highly discerning eye (career 13.5 BB% in the minors) and a high-contact approach (16.3 K%). Yes, Andy’s 2008 big league numbers are stomach-churning, but his BABIP was an incredibly low .177. I examined LaRoche earlier this offseason, stressing that a small sample of at-bats should not be grounds for writing off a player with a long, sustained record of success:

“While Andy LaRoche’s major league stats make fantasy owners want to avert their eyes, it is too early to write him off. That scary big league line is at least partially the result of terrible luck on balls put in play, and his minor league dossier reflects a player possessing excellent strike-zone control and doubles power. If Andy gets back to using the whole field, he could be a bargain. Those willing to look past a small sample of at-bats in the majors could be rewarded with a nifty under-the-radar player at the hot corner.”





A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire.

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kcscoliny
15 years ago

Can we get some Kila love. He was stuck in a middle ground, too old for AA and too few AB’s for AAA but his roughly .460 wOBA was pretty impressive. We’ll have to see if he can follow it up this season. Good stuff