The Baltimore Orioles have multiple reasons to thank the Seattle Mariners, and right-hander Chris Tillman is one of the top gifts that the club received in the Erik Bedard trade prior to the 2008 season. Tillman’s minor league numbers were nothing special prior to the 2008 season, but he was a second-round pick out of a California high school in the 2006 draft.

Tillman posted a 5.26 ERA in High-A ball for the Mariners in 2007, but his FIP was significantly better at 4.43. He allowed 107 hits in 102.2 innings with rates of 4.21 BB/9 and 9.20 K/9. The right-hander jumped to Double-A for the 2008 season with the Orioles and Tillman allowed just 115 hits in 135.2 innings. He also posted rates of 4.31 BB/9 and 10.22 K/9.

Once Tillman’s control improves, he could be absolutely dominating with a low-to-mid-90s fastball and a curveball with plus potential. The change-up is still developing. Tillman performed well against both right-handed and left-handed hitters in 2008, although he allowed a HR/9 rate of 0.93 against RH batters, as opposed to 0.29 HR/9 against LH batters.

Tillman has a couple of fellow pitching prospects who will serve as competition for starting roles, including right-hander Jake Arrieta and southpaw Brian Matusz, the club’s top pick in 2008. The good news is that there are not many – if any – pitchers currently in the big club’s starting rotation that are secure in their roles (expect perhaps Jeremy Guthrie). Radhames Liz and David Hernandez are two other pitchers to keep in mind for rotation spots as well, and Liz already had a taste of the Majors.

If all goes well for the Orioles (But when does it with young pitching?), all five pitchers could be in the club’s MLB starting rotation by the end of 2010, and Tillman should be near the top of the list. As for this season, keep an eye on Tillman in the spring to see where he falls on the depth chart for a possible mid-season call-up. If he does hit the Majors this season, he could struggle a bit because of his control issues and inexperience. Expect about six wins, 100 innings pitched and 110 hits allowed, as well as rates of 4.50 BB/9 and 7.25 K/9.

Toronto Blue Jays manager Cito Gaston recently stated that rookie phenom Travis Snider, only 21, would have to play himself off the team this spring. The left-handed outfielder rocketed through the system last year, playing at four levels (including the Majors) despite beginning the year stuck at DH with a wonky elbow.

The 14th overall pick of the 2006 draft out of a Washington state high school has a career minor league line of .299/.375/.513 in 1,138 at-bats. Last season, he spent the majority of the season in Double-A and struggled with his batting average and strikeouts. However, his elbow was reportedly the cause of the early problems; Snider hit .125/.288/.125 with 18 strikeouts in his first 32 at-bats at that level. He ended his stint in Double-A at .262 and then hit .344 in an 18-game stay in Triple-A.

Snider was called up to the Majors to finish the season and more than held his own as a 20 year old. He hit .301/.338/.466 with a .164 ISO in 73 at-bats. He also posted rates of 6.4 BB% and 31.5 K%. His walk rates have been better in the minors, so that should improve before too long. Snider’s strikeout rate, though, will likely be high until he acclimatizes to the Majors and matures a bit as a hitter. As a result, don’t expect him to hit for a high average any time soon. That said, he has a swing that could eventually produce a few .290-.310 seasons. He also has 35-homer power.

Defensively, Snider has the arm to play right field, but the range for left. That should not be an issue with two of the better defensive outfielders in the American League in center field (Vernon Wells) and right field (Alex Rios). Adam Lind, 25, could also spend some time in left when he is not in the designated-hitter role. Unfortunately, both promising youngsters swing from the left side so a platoon is not in order. Snider has more power than Lind, but the U of South Alabama alum is more likely to flirt with a .300 average at this point.

Snider should be in the top five when it comes to considering prospects to draft for your keeper leagues, and he could have an immediate impact in all fantasy leagues while competing for the Rookie of the Year award in the American League. The only thing that could prevent him from hitting 20 homers in his first full Major League season is an injury.

Right-hander Ryan Perry was selected 21st overall in the 2008 draft and he already has people talking. According to a story at MLB.com, the club has been really impressed with him so far this spring. There are even whispers that he could break camp with the big club.

Don’t get too excited, though. Sure he can hit triple digits from time-to-time, but Perry’s control/command is lacking and he does not have a lot of pitching experience, having entered his collegiate career as an infielder. He also struggled with injuries in college, which cut into his pitching experience and his numbers were not impressive at all prior to his draft year. He had a 2.89 ERA at the University of Arizona in 2008, but his ERAs were 7.34 and 6.35 in his first two seasons. Perry, 22, also allowed 102 hits in 68.1 innings.

That’s not to say Perry didn’t deserve to be a first-round pick, or will not be an impact Major League player, but to expect him to have a major (positive) impact in 2009 is asking a bit too much. In 12 High-A games in 2008 – the highest level he’s pitched at, Perry posted a 3.86 ERA but allowed 15 hits in 11.2 innings. He also walked seven (and struck out 12). Keep in mind he hasn’t even faced live, opposing hitters in spring training.

The Tigers added veteran Brandon Lyon to the bullpen via free agency, and he should add much-needed stability, especially with Joel Zumaya’s ongoing injury woes. The other bullpen options: Freddy Dolsi, Zach Miner, and Fernando Rodney are far from sure things.

Unfortunately, Perry may be needed, whether he’s ready or not.

The Oakland Athletics organization is loaded with pitching talent in the upper two levels of the minor league system. Trevor Cahill may be further away than the likes of Brett Anderson and Gio Gonzalez, but he arguably has a higher ceiling. The right-hander was originally selected out of high school by the Athletics in the second round of the 2006 draft and he has moved quickly for a prep pitcher, especially in an organization that is thought to favor college players.

In three seasons, the soon-to-be-20-year-old hurler has missed a lot of bats, having allowed just 163 hits in 238.2 cumulative innings. Last season, he allowed 52 hits in 87.1 High-A innings before moving up to Double-A for seven appearances. In those games, Cahill allowed 24 hits in 37 innings and posted rates of 4.62 BB/9 and 8.03 K/9 (which was the first time his strikeout rate was below 10.00 K/9). He obviously still has work to do on his control. Cahill possesses an 88-93 mph fastball, as well as a plus curveball and improving change-up.

There should be plenty of opportunities for young starting pitchers to appear in Oakland this season. Top pitcher Justin Duchscherer is just one year removed from pitching out of the bullpen and he is injury prone. Other starters who should have an inside track on a job include the inconsistent Dana Eveland, the unproven Sean Gallagher, and the aforementioned Gonzalez. Josh Outman, acquired from Philly in the Joe Blanton deal last season, could figure into the rotation or bullpen. Interestingly, Cahill is the only homegrown talent, which is odd for a club that has a reputation build on its draft history.

After being quiet on the 2008-09 free agent market, the club will have to find a replacement for Greg Smith’s 190.1 innings. The left-hander was used to help acquire star outfielder Matt Holliday from the Rockies earlier in the off-season. Blanton and Rich Harden also combined to provide 204 innings before their trades out of town. It will likely take at least three young pitchers to help make up for those almost 400 innings and Cahill should certainly be in line for a good portion of those if he gets off to a good start in the minors this season.

Even if he does appear for 100 innings or so in the Majors this season, Cahill will probably not be a huge factor in fantasy baseball. He is someone to consider for keeper leagues, however, with the ceiling of a No. 2 starter.

Leading up to the beginning of the 2009 season, Rotographs will look at the top 30 prospects (in no particular order) who enter the season having the best chances to make an impact at the Major League level this year.

The Seattle Mariners enter spring training with a wide-open situation in the bullpen. The M’s will no longer give the ball to J.J. Putz in the ninth inning, as the soon-to-be 32 year-old was shipped to the Mets in a twelve-player package. Also headed to Queens in that swap was groundball specialist Sean Green. After two years of, well, putsing around in the ‘pen, 2006 first-rounder Brandon Morrow will be moved to the rotation on a full-time basis. So, who’s left in that Seattle bullpen? Let’s take a look.

The top returning reliever, per WPA, is righty Roy Corcoran. The smallish 28 year-old turned in a 3.81 FIP and kept his infielders very busy (69.5 GB%), but there’s some question about the repeatability of his work. The former Expo/Nat struck out about as many batters (4.83 K/9) as he walked (4.46 BB/9) and his career minor league walk rate (4.14 BB/9) is rather high as well. Low-K pitchers can be plenty successful by inducing grounders and limiting walks, but Corcoran doesn’t appear to have the control to make that equation work.

Mark Lowe, 28, is coming off of a season in which he posted a 4.42 FIP. He punched out 7.77 batters per nine innings, but his control often evaded him (4.81 BB/9). The 6-3, 200 pounder has long been on prospect lists due to his mid-90’s heat/mid-80’s slider combo, but injuries (shoulder impingement as well as microfracture surgery on his elbow in an effort to regenerate cartilage in the joint) have held him back. If you’re looking for a guy who fits the closer profile from a “stuff” standpoint, it’s probably Lowe.

Like Lowe, David Aardsma is a flame-throwing righty without sharp command. The 27 year-old’s mix of mid-90’s fastballs and hard sliders have yet to produce anything but angst for his employers, as Aardsma has skipped between the Giants, Cubs, White Sox and Red Sox, before ending up in Seattle for minor league southpaw Fabian Williamson. The 2003 first-rounder has fanned his fair share of hitters in the bigs (8.65 K/9), but an atrocious walk rate (5.6 BB/9) has kept him from being anything more than a replacement-level reliever, with a 4.90 FIP. One thing to watch: according to our pitch data, Aardsma started using an upper-80’s splitter (thrown 10.9% of the time) in addition to his fastball and slider. The chances of Aardsma finally delivering are long, but the M’s have some experience with a control-challenged reliever adding a splitter and subsequently taking off.

Tyler Walker, formerly of the Giants, might also be able to work his way into the mix. The 32 year-old posted a 4.24 FIP last season, with 8.27 K/9 and 3.54 BB/9. The 6-3, 275 pounder works in the low 90’s with his fastball, but has progressivley become more reliant on a low 80’s slider (thrown 30% in ’06, 31.4% in ’07 and 40.3% in ’08).

It’s also possible that some of the team’s rotation excess ends up in the ‘pen, particularly lefties Ryan Rowland-Smith and Ryan Feierabend. Rowland-Smith appeared in 47 games last season (12 starts), posting a 4.53 FIP. His fastball won’t overwhelm anyone (88.7 MPH), but he also mixes in a slider, curve and a changeup on a fairly regular basis. Similarly, Feierabend supplements modest heat (87.8 MPH) with three offspeed pitches, relying heavily upon a high-70’s changeup.

Another long-term name to keep in mind is Josh Fields. The former Georgia Bulldog closer was selected by the Braves in the ’07 amateur draft, but the club didn’t meet his bonus demands. After improving his stock during the 2008 season, Fields was nabbed by the M’s with the 20th overall pick and…didn’t sign, at least not right away. The Boras client recently came to terms, however, receiving a bonus nearing $2 million (as a college senior, Fields had up until next June’s draft to negotiate a contract). The 23 year-old righty fits the profile of a late-inning reliever better than any of the current options, as he comes equipped with mid-90’s gas and a hard curveball. The 6-0, 180 pounder is likely the heir apparent to Putz in the long run.

Leading up to the beginning of the 2009 season, Rotographs will be looking at the top 30 prospects (in no particular order) who enter the season having the best chances to make an impact at the Major League level this year.

The Florida Marlins organization is no stranger to relying on rookies. The club has a revolving door at just about every position, and that door starts swinging about the time a player enters his first or second year of arbitration eligibility. The first-base position is no different this season, with Gaby Sanchez as the favorite to replace the dearly-departed Mike Jacobs, who was traded this past off-season to Kansas City for reliever Leo Nunez.

Sanchez was a fourth-round selection by the Marlins out of the University of Miami in 2005. He was originally drafted as a catcher, but moved out to first base and has spent just 13 games at his former position. Sanchez has also played third base in the minors but had a .938 fielding percentage – and below average range – in 62 games at the hot corner at Double-A in 2008.

Offensively, Sanchez has had a solid minor league career and sports a career line of .305/.397/.487 in four minor league seasons. Aside from his 2008 MLB stint, he has not played above Double-A. In 2008 at that level, he hit .314/.404/.513 with an ISO of .199 in 478 at-bats. Sanchez also stole 17 bases (but was caught eight times) and posted solid rates: 12.6 BB% and 14.6 K%. In his MLB debut, he appeared in just five games and went 3-for-8 (.375) with two doubles and two strikeouts.

As mentioned earlier, Sanchez will be replacing Jacobs, who mashed 32 home runs last season and posted a line of .247/.299/.514 with 93 RBI in 477 at-bats. Jacobs’ ISO was .266 and he posted rates of 7.0 BB% and 24.9 K%. The Marlins (likely) new first baseman will not be able to compete in the home run or RBI departments, but he will provide a much better average, as well as some other secondary stats.

Among the projection systems at FanGraphs, the consensus seems to be that Sanchez, 25, will hit about .272/.346/.430 with 15 home runs or so. Personally, I would expect a higher average, perhaps around .285, along with 15-17 homers, 30-35 doubles, and 65-70 RBI depending on his line-up position. He should also be good for about 10 stolen bases, with is a nice little bonus for a first baseman.

Sanchez’ biggest competition for playing time appears to be former Angels’ prospect Dallas McPherson, who had an excellent Triple-A season in 2008 and hit 42 home runs in 448 at-bats, while playing in a very good hitter’s park. Non-roster invitee Jay Gibbons could also see time at first base, if he looks good this spring. Long-term, the first base job will likely belong to prospect Logan Morrison, 21, who will open 2009 in Double-A. Sanchez obviously has a fairly narrow window in which to establish himself, so keep that in mind in keeper leagues.

Leading up to the beginning of the 2009 season, Rotographs will look at the top 30 prospects (in no particular order) who enter the season having the best chances to make an impact at the Major League level this year.

It is no secret that the Tampa Bay Rays are counting on David Price to be a regular member of the 2009 starting rotation. His 2008 season, which culminated with a dominating performance in the playoffs, showed that he has the ability to get Major League hitters out. But that was in the bullpen, where he could rely on his two best pitches – his fastball and slider. It remains to be seen if Price, the first-overall selection in the 2007 amateur draft, can remain dominant for an entire six-to-nine-inning stretch every five days. An improved change-up will certainly help, and he needs to use it more than he did in his five Major League games (1.3%).

Price certainly did not have any major problems in the minors during his one and only pro season. He allowed just seven runs in 34.2 innings in High-A ball before pitching very well at Double-A and Triple-A. In total, Price allowed 92 hits in 109.1 innings, with rates of 2.6 BB/9 and 9.00 K/9.

The good news for the Rays is that the club does not need a lot from Price in 2009, as long as the other starting pitchers remain healthy and do not regress too much. The top four members of the starting rotation remain; the fifth starter – Edwin Jackson – was traded to Detroit for outfield depth. Jackson provided 183.1 innings and 14 wins. His FIP was 4.88 and he posted modest rates of 3.78 BB/9 and 5.30 K/9. Price may have trouble meeting the innings total (His almost 130 innings in 2008 was a career high) but all the other numbers should be in reach.

If the left-hander can exceed Jackson’s numbers significantly, then the other pitchers in the rotation will obviously feel less pressure. Scott Kazmir is coming back from arm issues and pitched in just 27 games last season but was arguably the club’s most dominating starter. Andy Sonnanstine is one of the best No. 4 or 5 starters in baseball and pitched 193.1 innings last season. Matt Garza showed flashes of brilliance but needs to be more consistent. James Shields, the only pitcher on the Rays to throw 200 innings, has been consistent during his two full Major League seasons but he’s not a classic No. 1 starter. If Price can reach his ceiling sooner rather than later, it would allow Shields the opportunity to slide back into the No. 2 or 3 hole in the rotation.

Price really does not have any competition for the fifth spot in the rotation. The organization has a number of promising starting pitchers, including Wade Davis (needs polish), Jeff Niemann (likely headed to the pen), Jacob McGee (had Tommy John surgery), Jeremy Hellickson (needs polish) and James Houser (also needs polish), but none of them have both Price’s ceiling nor his MLB-readiness.

Even if he fails to dominate in 2009, which is more likely than not, Price has an excellent shot at making a significant impact on the Rays team, and he is the early favorite for Rookie of the Year in the American League. From a fantasy perspective, you can likely expect 160-180 innings from Price, as well as 12-14 wins and 120-140 strikeouts.

With Javier Vazquez now residing in Atlanta and Jose Contreras (achilles) likely on the shelf for at least the first half of the season, the Chicago White Sox entered the winter looking to fill two spots in the club’s rotation. One of those openings will at least temporarily be occupied by oft-injured Bartolo Colon, but the competition for the fifth slot remains wide open. The candidates for the job: Clayton Richard (check out Richard’s piece here), Jeffrey Marquez, Lance Broadway and Aaron Poreda.

My original plan was to profile each player in an individual post, but rather than boring the reader with lengthy accounts of Marquez and Broadway, I’d like to present the following 2009 forecasts for the two:

Jeffrey Marquez, RHP
Age: 24
CHONE: 92 IP, 6.33 FIP, 4.3 K/9, 3.28 BB/9
PECOTA: not listed on team depth chart

Lance Broadway, RHP
Age: 25
CHONE: 143 IP, 5.80 FIP, 5.29 K/9, 3.71 BB/9
PECOTA: 40 IP, 6.22 ERA, 5.2 K/9, 3.82 BB/9

Suffice it to say, you’re more than likely going to want to avoid both of these fellows. Neither Marquez (5.36 FIP at AAA) nor Broadway (4.89) offer much in terms of upside. Fantasy owners might consider the previously profiled Richard, but most are probably rooting for today’s subject: Aaron Poreda.

While the club has since had a change in philosophy, the South Siders were extremely conservative in the amateur draft during the middle part of the decade. 2005 first-rounder Broadway, as previously mentioned, does not project well into the majors and was ranked as just the 28th-best White Sox prospect by Baseball America. However, Broadway’s brand of mediocrity surpasses the level of production received from right-hander Kyle McCulloch, Chicago’s 2006 first-rounder out of Texas. Unranked by BA, McCulloch struck out less than five batters per nine in AA last season, walking nearly three and a half per nine as well.

Dissatisfied by minimal returns from “safe” college picks the previous two years, the White Sox attempted to hit a home run in 2007 by selecting Poreda. A towering 6-6, 240 pound southpaw out of San Francisco, Poreda was considered less refined than many college products. He pumped easy gas, hitting the upper-90’s with his heater, but the quality of his secondary pitches lagged behind. Here’s BA’s scouting report on Poreda from June 2007:

“Poreda works off the fastball almost as much as UC Riverside’s James Simmons (No. 47), and like Simmons, it’s his only above-average pitch. While his fastball was flat and 89-90 mph in his 2007 opener, he has been consistently in the low 90s since then, touching 96-97 and regularly hitting 94. He throws plenty of strikes (though he lacks true command), and with his 6-foot-6, 240-pound frame, he should prove durable. He doesn’t pitch as downhill as he should at his size, in part because of his low three-quarters arm slot. Poreda’s arm action and lower slot make his breaking ball a fringe-average pitch at best, though it has improved. He has the makings of a changeup but hasn’t thrown it much, sticking to his fastball.”

Poreda began his professional career in Rookie Ball, tossing 46.1 frames for the Great Falls White Sox of the Pioneer League. His easy velocity was no match for that level of competition, as Poreda fanned 48 and walked 10 while posting a 2.06 FIP. Following his impressive debut, the plus-sized lefty was dubbed Chicago’s third-best farm talent. BA noted that while “he’s raw for a college pitcher”, he “could wind up as a bigger version of Billy Wagner coming out of the bullpen.”

White Sox brass must have been plenty impressed with Poreda, as they bumped him up to Winston-Salem of the High-A Carolina League to begin the 2008 season. He performed decently there by limiting the free passes (2.21 BB/9), but his strikeout rate (46 K in 73.1 IP, or 5.65 K/9) was rather low for a guy noted as possessing a high-octane fastball. Poreda’s K rate did rebound upon a promotion to the AA Southern League, as he whiffed 72 batters in 87.2 innings (7.39 K/9) while allowing a 2.26 BB/9. Following the season, BA once again named Poreda as the third-best Pale Hose Prospect (though in a much-improved system).

Aaron Poreda has the highest upside of Chicago’s fifth starter candidates, and it’s not particularly close. However, one has to wonder if the big southpaw is ready for a major league assignment at the point. With scarcely 200 minor league inning under his belt, Poreda has not missed quite as many bats as his power arsenal would suggest, and his slider and changeup largely remain works in progress. Both CHONE (6.09 FIP) and PECOTA (5.74 ERA) suggest that Poreda could be in for a rude introduction if he is shoved up into the fifth slot or placed in the bullpen. The 22 year-old southpaw looks like a fine long-term prospect, but the most reasonable scenario entails the ChiSox deploying Poreda to AAA in order to give him the necessary time to round out his repertoire.

Poreda should certainly be on fantasy radars, but this might be one of those rare cases where owners should root against the top prospect making the club out of spring training. Poreda still has work to do.

With Javier Vazquez now residing in Atlanta and Jose Contreras (achilles) likely on the shelf for at least the first half of the season, the Chicago White Sox entered the winter looking to fill two spots in the club’s rotation. One of those openings will at least temporarily be occupied by oft-injured Bartolo Colon, but the competition for the fifth slot remains wide open. Over the next few days, I am going to take a look at the candidates for the job: Clayton Richard, Jeffrey Marquez, Lance Broadway and Aaron Poreda.

Clayton Richard, LHP
Age: 25
2009 CHONE Projection: 140 IP, 4.86 FIP, 4.95 K/9, 2.96 BB/9
2009 PECOTA Projection: 110 IP, 6.13 ERA, 4.33 K/9, 3.27 BB/9

An 8th-round pick out of Michigan in the 2005 amateur draft, Richard was a relative unknown entering the 2008 season. The 6-5, 240 pounder was coming off of a fairly mundane 2007 campaign at High-A Winston-Salem, striking out just 5.52 batters per nine innings and allowing 3.29 BB/9 in 161.1 IP. His FIP was a shrug-inducing 4.05, though he did at least keep the ball in the dirt with a 57.3 GB%. That performance did not earn Richard a spot in Baseball America’s top 30 White Sox prospects, as BA likely viewed him as an aged college prospect who merely held his head above water in A-Ball.

In 2008, however, Richard passed through AA Birmingham and AAA Charlotte on his way to the majors. In 83.2 frames at Birmingham, Richard compiled a 2.96 FIP, with 5.7 K’s per nine, an improved walk rate (1.72 BB/9) and just 0.22 HR/9 surrendered. Bumped up to Charlotte, the southpaw posted rates of 6.75 K/9 and 0.82 BB/9 in 44 innings, good for a 2.93 FIP.

Richard made his debut with the South Siders in late July, and while his ERA (6.04) looks pretty grisly, the underlying numbers weren’t too shabby. In 47.2 IP, Richard posted a 4.10 FIP, punching out 5.48 batters per nine innings and walking 2.45 per nine. The former Wolverine used his 90 MPH sinker, 80 MPH slider and 81 MPH changeup to burn some worms, posting a 49.7 GB%. For his work, Richard was dubbed by BA as the 5th-best Pale Hose Prospect this offseason.

It’s difficult to get too awfully excited about a hurler like Richard, who misses few bats but attempts to off-set that tendency with above-average control and groundball tendencies. There are many pitchers of this ilk floating around major league baseball, some of whom will become successful starters while others will never quite translate their minor league success to the highest level.

Owners in most leagues will probably want to avoid drafting Richard, as his upside is fairly modest. CHONE’s projection suggests that Richard will at least hold his head above water in ’09, while PECOTA’s translation has “KEEP AWAY” written in bold, red ink. It remains to be seen whether the lefty’s sinker and savvy will be enough to stave off big league hitters every fifth day, but Richard has at least improved his standing in the organization enough to possibly get the chance.

Our “Prospects in Proper Context” series reaches its end today, as we uncover the most promising bats to grace the AAA Pacific Coast League in 2008. As was the case with the International League, the PCL features an abundance of grizzled minor league veterans at the pinnacle of the wOBA scale: those in the top 10 include Russell Branyan, Micah Hoffpauir, Nelson Cruz, Paul McAnulty, Jason Dubois and Andy Green. However, there was still quite the collection of promising (if imperfect) bats to choose from. Players such as Jeff Clement, Ian Stewart, Sean Rodriguez, Wladimir Balentien and Bryan Anderson just missed the top five.

Here are links to the other seven parts of our prospects series:

High-A
Florida State League
Carolina League
California League

Double-A
Texas League
Southern League
Eastern League

Triple-A
International League

(note: 2008 league offensive levels are found courtesy of First Inning. Keep in mind that the league offensive levels are only from one season’s worth of data. Park factors are from 2006-2008 data compiled from Minor League Splits, posted on the Baseball Think Factory site. A park factor of 1.00 is exactly neutral. Anything above 1.00 favors hitters, while anything below 1.00 favors pitchers. The Park Adjusted Line (PAL) and Major League Equivalency (MLE) figures are compiled from Minor League Splits. A 150 AB cut-off was used for the list.)

AAA Pacific Coast League offensive levels: Singles (0.89), Doubles (1.08), Triples (1.02), Home Runs (1.12)

1. Colby Rasmus, Cardinals: .335 wOBA (.251/.346/.396)
Age: 22 (21 during ’08 season)
Position: CF
2006-2008 Park Factor (Memphis): Runs (0.96), Hits (0.97), Doubles (0.96), Home Runs (1.00)
Park Adjusted Line (PAL): .261/.355/.406
Major League Equivalency (MLE): .216/.290/.321

You might be asking yourself, “how does a guy with those numbers lead off this list?” While Rasmus’ overall line looks tepid, he battled groin and knee injuries (the latter of which prematurely ended his season in July) and he was starting to hit like his old self before going down with the sprained knee (.333/.441/.535 in 99 June AB). A member of the absurdly gifted 2005 outfield draft class, Rasmus had a pristine track record prior to ’08 and has authored a career .277/.366/.485 line. The 6-2, 185 pound lefty is one of the more well-rounded prospects that you’re going to find, as he works the count (career 13 BB%), can sting the ball (.208 ISO), swipes some bags (career 81% success rate, including 15/18 in 2008) and plays a plus center field.

Earlier this offseason, prospect guru Marc Hulet examined Rasmus’ chances of breaking into St. Louis’ crowded outfield and concluded the following:

“Some eyes were raised when Rasmus declined the opportunity to play winter ball to help make up for lost time and perhaps accelerate his big-league timetable. Regardless, he could very well surface in St. Louis by mid-season if he gets off to a respectable start to the 2009 season. Rasmus may initially struggle to hit for average, but he should be productive and Fantasy Baseball owners should track his progress closely.”

Don’t let Rasmus’ 2008 numbers sway you too much: his tools-laden game and past performance suggest this was just a tiny blip for a player who could end up being a championship-caliber performer.

2. Chase Headley, Padres: .401 wOBA (.305/.383/.556)
Age: 24
Position: LF/3B
2006-2008 Park Factor (Portland): R (0.93), H (0.94), 2B (0.97), HR (1.05)
PAL: .324/.400/.575
MLE: .269/.329/.455

The Padres are rather short on premium young talent, but Headley represents the club’s best chance of cultivating a home-grown stud. The former Tennessee Volunteer has really put a charge into the ball over the past two years: after slugging .426 in 2005 and .434 in 2006, Headley posted a .580 mark at AA San Antonio in 2007 and a slugged at a .556 clip at Portland this past season. The switch-hitter works the count well (10.7 BB% with Portland), though fairly low contact rates are at least somewhat troubling (he whiffed 25.1% of the time in AAA, 26.3% in AA in ’07). Headley saw considerable playing time for the Padres last summer, batting a respectable .269/.337/.420 in 368 PA (he did K 31.4% of the time, however).

Earlier this offseason, Peter Bendix took a look at Headley’s track record and poked a few holes in it, noting Headley’s relatively advanced age, contact issues and the power-sapping environs of Petco Park. The odds of Headley becoming a star probably aren’t great, but he’s pretty much assured of everyday playing time in 2009 and has enough secondary skills to hold his own.

3. Brandon Wood, Angels: .405 wOBA (.296/.375/.595)
Age: 23 (24 in March)
Position: SS/3B
2006-2008 Park Factor (Salt Lake): R (1.06), H (1.04), 2B (0.96), HR (1.07)
PAL: .284/.364/.577
MLE: .235/.299/.446

It feels as though Wood has been adorning prospects list forever, doesn’t it? The soon-to-be 24 year-old has a long history of hitting for prodigious power, though a few Angles affiliates (High-A Rancho Cucamonga and Salt Lake in particular) reside in very favorable offensive leagues. The 6-3, 185 pounder appears stuck in a holding pattern right now: he has little left to prove at AAA, but just where he resides on the diamond long-term remains to be seen.

The Angles will likely continue to struggle in the run-scoring department, particularly in a post-Teixeira world (Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system pegs LAA for 778 runs scored in 2009, 9th in the AL), so Wood’s pop could come in handy. Incumbent shortstop Erick Aybar has been rather feeble in the batter’s box to this point (career .286 wOBA). However, his glove work is well-regarded, whereas Wood is considered merely functional at the position. In the long haul, the most probable scenario entails Wood being installed at the hot corner, with Chone Figgins returning to a super-utility role.

Like Headley, Wood’s biggest drawback is his frequent propensity to swing and miss. Over the past two years in AAA, the 2003 first-rounder has punched out about 27% of the time. In 157 PA for the Halos last year, Wood whiffed 28.7% with a 2.6 BB%. Strikeouts certainly don’t preclude a player from being highly productive, but such a high rate does raise questions about Wood’s ability to handle breaking stuff at the highest level. Overall, Wood is a tough player to gauge: he could be a highly valuable commodity if he sticks at short and does enough in the walks and power department to offset a low batting average, an average to above-average player at third or a flameout who doesn’t adjust to big-league pitching.

4. Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies: .329 wOBA (.283/.344/.416)
Age: 23 (22 during ’08 season)
Position: CF/LF
2006-2008 Park Factor (Sacramento): R (0.94), H (0.96), 2B (0.97), HR (0.89)
PAL: .297/.356/.430
MLE: .250/.298/.341

The twice-traded Gonzalez proved that he could cover the gaps in Oakland last season (17.5 UZR/150), and the Venezuelan lefty has shown solid power during the course of his minor league career (.286/.340/.473). CarGo has youth and tools on his side, but he has quite a bit of work to do in terms of honing his control of the strike zone. In 316 PA with Oakland, Gonzalez walked just 4.1% of the time and chased 32.5% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. He was never particularly patient in the minors, either, with a career 7.8 BB%. I took a look at Gonzalez earlier this offseason following his trade to Colorado and came to the following conclusion:

“Gonzalez is headed to the best offensive environment in baseball, but it would be best to take a wait-and-see approach with the 23 year-old. While he has shown a solid amount of power in the minors, he has also posted low walk rates and relatively high strikeout totals. Gonzalez is essentially a lottery ticket for the Rockies and for fantasy owners: if his plate discipline improves to an acceptable level, he could be a star-caliber performer. If not, he might just be a Juan Encarnacion-type with more defensive value.”

5. Andy LaRoche, Pirates: .402 wOBA (.293/.452/.439)
Age: 25 (24 during ’08 season)
Position: 3B
2006-2008 Park Factor (Las Vegas): R (1.09), H (1.06), 2B (1.08), HR (1.08)
PAL: .276/.440/.423
MLE: .218/.349/.323

LaRoche is something of a forgotten man on the prospect landscape, as an execrable beginning to his major league career (.255 wOBA in 367 PA) has left a sour taste in the mouths of many. However, the career .294/.380/.517 minor league hitter has an interesting blend of skills and could prove to be a solid offensive cog for Pittsburgh. Adam’s brother combines gap power with a highly discerning eye (career 13.5 BB% in the minors) and a high-contact approach (16.3 K%). Yes, Andy’s 2008 big league numbers are stomach-churning, but his BABIP was an incredibly low .177. I examined LaRoche earlier this offseason, stressing that a small sample of at-bats should not be grounds for writing off a player with a long, sustained record of success:

“While Andy LaRoche’s major league stats make fantasy owners want to avert their eyes, it is too early to write him off. That scary big league line is at least partially the result of terrible luck on balls put in play, and his minor league dossier reflects a player possessing excellent strike-zone control and doubles power. If Andy gets back to using the whole field, he could be a bargain. Those willing to look past a small sample of at-bats in the majors could be rewarded with a nifty under-the-radar player at the hot corner.”