O’s Get Slice of Pie; Will Cubs Eat Crow?
When the Chicago Cubs inked talented-but-nomadic outfielder Milton Bradley to a three-year, $30 million deal earlier this month, the writing was on the wall for Felix Pie. The soon-to-be 24 year-old was ranked by Baseball America as Chicago’s best prospect in both 2006 and 2007, but it seemed as though the organization had soured on the Dominican Republic native. Despite a fairly impressive minor league dossier (Pie is a career .299/.353/.470 hitter) and above-average range, Felix evidently made a bad impression in two stale cups of coffee with the Cubbies in ’07 and ’08: in 260 career PA, the lanky lefty hit .223/.284/.331.
With Pie out of minor league options and the Cubs looking for some additional pitching depth, the North Siders have reportedly shipped their erstwhile top prospect to the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for 25 year-old lefty Garrett Olson and A-Ball righty Henry Williamson. The merits of this deal from Chicago’s standpoint can certainly be debated- Olson has endured quite the rough introduction to the majors as well, with a 5.28 FIP in 165 innings. His work in the minors (8.91 K/9, 2.93 BB/9) suggests he’s capable of better. However, as a finesse, fly-ball starter, it’s difficult to project Olson as more than a back-end starter. Will the Cubs come to regret letting their former star pupil leave town for a B-level pitching prospect?
Pie is coming off of just a fair season at AAA Iowa, having batted .287/.336/.466 in 368 PA. His walk rate has never been especially high (6.4 BB% in ’08, 8.2% career), but the 6-2, 170 pounder did display decent pop (.179 ISO) and only struck out 16.1% of the time. The previous season, he scorched the corn fields to the tune of .362/.410/.563 in 250 PA. That showing was surely aided by a ridiculous .411 BABIP, but the line serves to show that that it wasn’t all that long ago that Pie was raking and looking like a future pillar for the Cubs.
So, Pie isn’t coming off of a great season, but he still held his own in AAA as a 23 year-old at an up-the-middle position. But with the rangy Adam Jones patrolling center field (+8.5 UZR/150 during the ’08 season) and the terminally underrated Nick Markakis holding down right field, Pie might head to the bench for the time being and perhaps take over for left fielder Luke Scott at some point. Another option allows the O’s to move Scott to DH and insert Pie in left on Opening Day. Here’s what Rotoworld had to say about Pie playing left field in Baltimore:
“Not yet 24 years old, Pie was a nice target as a true center fielder with power and speed, but the Orioles are an odd fit with Adam Jones already patrolling center. Pie is for left field, but he doesn’t offer nearly enough offensively to carry the position.”
Now, Rotoworld is a tremendous website and offers a level of insight that few others match. However, I have to take issue with this statement, and others like it that I have seen over the winter. I think that there’s a sort of misconception with players like Pie, who might not at first blush appear capable of “carrying” a corner outfield position.
Let’s call it the “Randy Winn Effect.” Winn, as you probably know, is the right fielder for the San Francisco Giants. Upon first glance, he might appear to be ill-suited for a corner outfield spot- after all, he has slugged just .445 and .426 over the past two seasons. However, Winn offers something that few corner outfielders provide: plus defense. Winn has posted UZR/150 figures of 11.9 in 2007 and 18.9 in 2008. While his bat might be average by positional standards, he adds a significant amount of additional value with the leather compared to his plodding peers. In fact, Winn ranked 5th among all right fielders in Win Values this past season, with 4.6. While that was a high-water mark, Winn has been worth an average of 2.9 wins over the past three seasons.
Which brings us back to Pie. Sure, Pie’s offensive output at this point in his career might look ordinary, perhaps even somewhat below average for a corner outfielder. However, one has to consider defense as part of the equation. Pie might not hit like some of the more thunderous bats that typify a corner position, but his level of defensive ability figures to be significantly higher than most of his peers. Those additional runs that he saves in the field count- he adds value in an area where most of his contemporaries harm theirs. You might hear an analyst say that a player like Pie is “wasted” in a corner spot. That’s just not true- the offensive standard might be higher in left field than in center, but Pie’s range saves runs compared to the average left fielder. Those runs count, too.
Let’s give Pie a hypothetical 600 PA for the Orioles in 2009. CHONE, a projection system that incorporates minor league and major league data, pegs Pie for a .333 wOBA, just about dead-on average. Given his sturdy minor league record, that seems reasonable. Maybe a tad optimistic in his first crack at regular playing time, but let’s stick with it for now.
With a .333 wOBA, Pie projects to contribute about 0 runs above average with the bat. Pie has solid scouting reports afield and has done nice work in a small number of innings for the Cubs. As a left fielder, let’s say that Pie is a +7.5 run fielder. Adding in the positional adjustment (-7.5 runs per 162 games) and adjusting for replacement level (+20 runs), Pie projects to be worth a little north of 2 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) for the O’s. For comparison, newly-signed Phillie Raul Ibanez was worth 2.2 WAR for the Mariners in 2008, and free agent Adam Dunn was worth 1.8 WAR. Both of those guys are better hitters than Pie, but Ibanez and Dunn punt so much of their value with the leather that the overall level of value between the three projects to be negligible.
While Felix Pie’s stock might have taken somewhat of a hit with a rough introduction to the big leagues, he will play the entire 2009 season as a 24 year-old, retains some promise with the bat and projects to be a significantly better fielder than his peers in a corner outfield spot. His contribution to the O’s might not pop out at one the way that a monstrous batting line does, but Pie’s combination of decent hitting and slick glove work makes him yet another interesting position player for an organization that already houses Markakis, Jones and catcher Matt Wieters. Pie is worth a look in deeper leagues and should aid a mediocre Baltimore rotation in the immediate future. Beyond that, the outlook could be rosier if Pie takes flight with his tether now removed by the O’s.
Chicago’s loss is the Baltimore’s gain: long-term, Pie should provide decent numbers with the stick while teaming with Markakis and Jones to form an athletic, run-saving outfield trio. When pitching prospects like Christopher Tillman, Jake Arrieta and Brian Matusz break into the big leagues, they’ll be flanked by three rangy outfielders who will cover the gaps with ease.