I made a lot of predictions this pre-season, from the most undervalued and overvalued players to those of the bold variety to individual player projections. I will try to review as many of those as I can and I’ll start with the 10 bold predictions that the rest of the staff has been recapping.
Like many of my fellow RotoGraph writers, I attempted some bold predictions before the season began. Here is how I failed.
Brennan Boesch will be a Top 30 fantasy player.
I missed big here. Using ESPN’s player rater, it has him at #190 among just hitters. I liked the idea of the player before before Fielder and Cabrera having a good season. The problem was that no one on the Tigers wanted to step up. Eight Tigers batted in the #2 hole with Berry, Dirks, Boesch and Infante all hitting there in at least 20 games. As a group they hit .258/.313/.400. What a wasted opportunity for some fantasy player to be a Run producing machine. 0-1
A week ago I identified several American League starting pitchers whose SwStk% suggests an imminent strikeout rate surge. I then took a detour to look at both sides of the coin for National League starters, and now I’m back for the potential K/9 decliners in the AL. As a reminder, the league average for American League starting pitchers with a minimum of 120 innings pitched this year is a 7.0 K/9 and 8.5 SwStk%.
Research has shown that hitters have much more control of their BABIP marks than pitchers. As a result, true talent BABIP remains pretty stable, but does decline as a hitter ages. Looking at the leaders and laggards each year in the metric is a quick shortcut to figure out whose batting averages may decline or increase the following year. However, since these hitters may actually have a true talent level close to these levels, it might not give us the correct answer. We can instead compare a hitter’s BABIP to his previous year since hitters generally establish a baseline BABIP that they vary around each season. This is another method to help identify those who are in for a drop or jump in average. Today I’ll check in on the BABIP surgers compared to 2011. I used a minimum of 400 plate appearances last year and the “qualified” filter for this year. I have also included each hitter’s xBABIP in their respective write-ups.
On Saturday, I checked in on some surprising HR/FB ratio surgers and attempted to determine what we can expect from these hitters next season. Today I’ll look at the opposite end, those hitters whose HR/FB ratio have experienced a large decline. Will they be bargains in next year’s drafts or money traps?
Every season there are a handful of hitters who experience power breakouts. As much as a fantasy owner would love to take credit for predicting such a surge, it seems more like a crapshoot to me. Sure, you could use 20/20 hindsight to find clues for some of these hitters, but those same clues likely failed to lead to home run increases for many others. Let’s see if we could figure out what to expect in 2013 from three surprises from this year.
With the season winding down, I thought now is as good a time as any to ‘fess up and have a little it of accountability. I usually do a full article at the end of the season that includes all of my picks and pans for the season, which will come at the conclusion of the season, but this year we all did a piece in a series called 10 Bold Predictions. It was “go big or go home” for many of us and we wanted to be as bold and as brazen as possible while still maintaining certain bounds of sensibility. In looking back at mine, perhaps I was a bit overzealous… Read the rest of this entry »
The future position of Xander Bogaerts has become a hot button issue this season. Baseball Prospectus’ prospect guru Kevin Goldstein cited a potential move down the defensive spectrum, possibly even out of the infield, as a reason the 19-year-old didn’t make his mid-season top 50 prospect list.* Goldstein’s rationale drew the ire of many despite the commonly overlooked fact that Kevin is far more connected and knowledgeable than just about everyone who hurled accusations at him. Why does Boegarts’s future position rile up so many? Rabid Red Sox fans and the fantasy implications. Read the rest of this entry »
Josh Reddick is having an outstanding first season with the A’s after previously playing for Boston. The 25-year-old left handed hitter has an unexpected 25 HRs this season to go with a .253/.325/.500 triple slash line. Did Reddick change much from his time Boston? Was there some possible signs that Reddick had a chance to break out this season?
The main factor affecting his fantasy value in Boston was his playing time. Over 3 MLB season he had only 403 PA’s and hit .248/.290/.416 with 10 HRs (0.025 HR/PA). Not exactly numbers that will win a fantasy title.
Josh Rutledge has been filling in at shortstop for the injured Troy Tulowitzki and has done quite an admirable job, having posted an impressive .445 wOBA over 84 plate appearances. Unfortunately, we have no projections from any sources for the rookie and fantasy owners are left wondering what to expect from him for the rest of the season. Fear not loyal RotoGraphs reader, the Pod Projections have returned to answer that very question.
I have decided to project him assuming a full season to give you an idea of what he would do on a pro-rated basis. His current statistics are not factored into the final projected stat line. They are only used to help formulate the projected underlying metrics themselves.
