Archive for Projections

I like games. I’m sure you like games. So let’s play one. No, this is not an earthshattering new game that will revolutionize the world. In fact, you have probably played it before. It’s that old “here are several players’ statistics, guess who each line belongs to” one. Fun, right? I agree. I will also try to perform an entire analysis without revealing names until the end. So here they are, try to guess without cheating:

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Before the season, Neil Walker basically epitomized the term “blah” when describing his fantasy baseball prospects. He was expected to contribute a little here and a little there, but not stand out in any one category. These types of players always seem boring, but are typically undervalued as the perceived value of their across the board contributions are less than those from the speed demons or big power hitters. Surprisingly, we had a bit of disparity in our pre-season rankings, as they ranged from 9 to 15, with a consensus of 13. I personally came in at 15, which provides yet a second surprise given the fact that I boldly predicted that Walker would earn top five value at second base.

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This morning, Zach Sanders sprinkled his fairy dust and like magic, every second baseman’s season stat line produced a dollar value. Sitting down at 21, with earnings of a mere $4, is the Mariners sophomore, Dustin Ackley. Though he had just 333 big league at-bats to his name heading into the season, the RotoGraphs pre-season rankers were actually relatively agreeable about our performance expectations. His rank sat in a narrow range between 13 and 17, which was a bit surprising for a young guy who many people really liked, and others, not so much.

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On Monday, I took a look back at the hitters who I boldly predicted would lead the league in each of the 5×5 fantasy categories. Well, I made those same predictions for pitchers as well in the pre-season. So, let’s see if I did just as poorly or had some better luck.

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The pre-season prediction reviews continue this week and today I recap my bold hitter league leaders. Since these players were meant to be bold choices, I purposely did not pick any of the obvious guys or anyone I thought might not be considered very bold. Though I expected to hit a couple of my bold predictions, it would have been quite a surprise if I actually hit on any of these league leaguers. Let’s see how I did.

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On Wednesday, I took a look back at who I calculated to be the most overvalued pitchers versus their pre-season average draft position (ADP). Today, I will review the pitchers I identified as the most undervalued. I had excluded the reliever turned starter group, but since I was very bullish on Chris Sale, I would guess he would have appeared had I not excluded them.

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On Monday, I reviewed the hitters who I calculated to be the most overvalued at each position (sans catcher) in the pre-season. Today I will recap those who I figured to be the most undervalued at those positions. And surprise, we actually have a catcher this time. I will begrudgingly use the Yahoo rankings again and hopefully no position eligibility drama will ensue this time around. Just to repeat what I said in the comments of the overvalued article, I base my own valuations/rankings on 20 games played last year and 10 this year. So to keep things consistent, I have to apply the same rules on the Yahoo final season rankings to accurately compare.

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I continue my quest at taking a look back at my pre-season predictions and claims by checking in on who I believed to be the most overvalued starting pitchers. Pitcher valuations are easier and there should be less controversy (well, none at all!) over position eligibility. I’ll use Yahoo again, but any obvious relief pitchers who happen to have SP eligibility on the site will not be included in the rankings.

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I didn’t just make 20 bold predictions in the pre-season, I also made various other proclamations and forecasts that put my credibility on the line. One of those series of articles was a look at who I thought were the most overvalued and undervalued players at every position, including pitchers. Today is a review of the hitters I thought were overvalued. As a reminder, I looked at the top 10 hitters in ADP at each infield position and top 20 in the outfield. I tried looking at catcher, but realized that because most leagues draft only one, the most overvalued I found was only ranked one spot earlier than my rank. The most overvalued were those who I ranked furthest away from the hitter’s ADP at the time. I am going to use final season Yahoo ranks because that seems easiest, even though I am quite positive their valuation system probably is not all that accurate. Anyhow, Let’s see how I did.

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On Thursday, I reviewed my official 10 bold predictions. This pre-season, I took it one step further and decided to throw out 10 more bold predictions. Let’s see if these fare any better than the first set.

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