Did you load up the auction calculator a few weeks ago and see Mason Miller listed as the 20th-best starter? Load it up again today, and you’ll only see Miller on the relievers page. That’s because Miller’s 2024 role is hard to pin down. Last year, the year Miller made his debut, the young right-hander in Oakland started six games and appeared in relief in four. As a starter, he recorded a 3.70 ERA and as a reliever, 4.00. So after only 33.1 IP in 2023 without a clear role defined, what’s a fantasy manager to do?

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Last week I analyzed a few players who stood out to me in a mock draft due to their early selection. Whenever this happens, I like to dig in to see what I can learn. This week I’ll keep the party going with three more offensive players I was surprised to see going so early.

*NOTE: All ADP values come from The NFBC, where there have been 61 drafts as of this writing.

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OF – Adolis García (ADP: 44.30, Min: 24, Max: 65)

The auction calculator has the Texas outfielder ranked as the 17th-best player at the position. In front of him are tried and true players like George Springer, Bryan Reynolds, and Randy Arozarena. He is also the 46th-best batter overall according to the calculator, so pick 44 isn’t too far off if you assume no pitchers are selected in the first four rounds, but that would be unusual. It seems to me that the price is close to being right but still a little inflated by recency bias from the 2023 playoffs where García hit eight home runs, the most of any player in the postseason. He also slashed .323/.382/.726 while striking out 26.5% of the time. García’s BB% regressed to his typical in the playoffs, but his K% decreased. Take a look:

It would be unreasonable to assume García will hit anywhere over .250 in 2024 or that he will strike out under 26% of the time. This is a great example of Steamer predicting regression. The table also shows a perfect example of a player who went galactic in the playoffs, it happens. Remember when Randy Arozarena hit 10 home runs in the 2020 postseason? The comparison is not an apples-to-apples one by any means, but it’s at least orange to clementine:

I’m not implying that it’s as simple as “Randy Arozarena came back down to earth and so will Adolis García.” Arozarena broke out in that incredible 2020 postseason run and then went 20-20 in 2021 with a .274/.356/.459 slash line. But there’s more data on García than there was on Arozarena when making projections after both of their big postseason performances and I think Steamer has it right.

One last thing to point out is that while García could certainly record over 30 knocks in 2024, he may not be stealing the 13 bases Steamer projects. He only recorded nine in 2023 after recording 25 in 2022. That power/speed threat is what bumped García’s value up in years past and I don’t think the adjustment has been made for 2024. The Rangers, whether due to Bruce Bochy’s arrival or not, stole far fewer bags in 2023 than in years past:

2021: 106 -> 2022: 128 -> 2023: 79

Adolis García is a great pick and the error bars on his 2024 projection likely aren’t very wide. Still, those projections include negative regression and if someone drafting before you wants to disregard that, let them.

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3B – Royce Lewis (ADP: 43.08, Min: 15, Max: 110)

Imagine someone told you there is a young third baseman who is projected for 28 home runs, 13 steals, and a .269/.336/.481 slash line and his name is not Gunnar Henderson. They told you he has recorded only 239 major league plate appearances, but they were good ones, and he hit 15 home runs, stole six bases, and slashed .309/.372/.548. Oh, and that when he made it to the major leagues, he struck out just barely above league average, 23.0% (league average: 22.7%). You would be frothing! Now, imagine someone told you this player is projected for 617 plate appearances by Steamer even though he’s never even recorded half of that before, and you’d become skeptical. Scroll through his NBC Sports Injury Page and you’ll become even more so. You don’t have to read much more, you could just listen to Sleeper and the Bust and hear them discuss Lewis’ ceiling appeal, but injury risk floor. Even still, here are some data points to prepare you for seeing his early ADP during your draft prep:

• His auction calculator position rank is 5th behind Manny Machado and in front of Yandy Díaz.
• He did not slug anywhere south of .500 in AA, AAA, or the major leagues in 2023.
• He worked fastballs for a 7.6 pVal (PitchInfo), sliders for 5.7, and only really struggled against the curveball (-3.5).
• He is the everyday third baseman for the Twins and is projected to bat second

What’s not to like? Well…the injury risk. “But, what’s not to like about candy?”, the dentist asks you as the drill starts up and goes “zzziirrmmhmmm!!!”

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1B – Christian Encarnacion-Strand (ADP: 127.75, Min: 74, Max: 225)

There are so many young players going in early rounds this season offseason. It feels like more than usual. But with players like Gunnar Henderson, Corbin Carroll, Michael Harris II, and Bobby Witt Jr. seeming like sure shots in 2024, why not? The game has skewed young the past few years and it’s not hard to believe that CES can continue the trend. However, who do you think played the most games at first base for the Reds last season?!

Games Started at First Base – Cincinnati Reds (2023)

• Spencer Steer – 53 GS
• Joey Votto – 44 GS
• Christian Encarnacion-Strand – 32

Joey Votto’s option was declined for a reason, the Reds have some depth at first. But who will stick there defensively? Ok, you win RosterResource, Steer moves to left field and CES takes third. Fine! Is he good enough offensively to stick? He slashed .270/.328/.477 in 63 major league games in 2023 and is expected by Steamer to slash it again (.271/.329/.491). Steamer is lower on his playing time than it is with Royce Lewis (above). CES’s 130-game projection is not a 162-game projection and the difference makes me nervous. He did strike out 28.6% of the time in the major leagues, his base running (BsR) and defense (Def) produced negative numbers, and he walked only .2 times for every time he struck out. Even still, his actual stats didn’t lie:

• AVG: .270 xAVG: .268
• SLG: .477 xSLG: .476
• wOBA: .346 xwOBA: .347

Ok, so what’s his specialty? Power? Speed? Batting average? None, really, but that’s why he’s the 11th-best first baseman for 2024 according to our auction calculator. He does a little bit of everything, or at least, he’s expected to.

You walk into a coffee shop, it’s one of those fancy yet casual ones that looks like it belongs in Europe. You take a look at the menu and you’re astounded. “I’d never pay that much for a cup of coffee. I don’t care what it’s got in it!” you say to yourself as you step out onto the street, thinking just a little bit differently about yourself, the world, and your appetite for afternoon coffee.

As the doorbell jingles and you consider your options for a cheaper caffeine fix, you can’t help but notice that everyone coming out of this new, fancy coffee shop looks so…happy. They’ve got cold drinks, hot drinks, drinks you’ve never seen before and you start to wonder, “Is it worth it?…Nah!”, and you head back to your office for a cup out of that grimy old pot that’s been cooking since Jane got in at 7:45 this morning. But, what will happen tomorrow? Maybe you’ll cough up a few extra dollars just to see what all the fuss is about. After all, you’re outgoing, or at least, you can be.

Is this season the season you drop the metaphorical tried and true and go for something a little more exciting? There are a few hitters who I did not think would go as early as they did in a recent mock draft I participated in, but they did. Like the fancy, more expensive cup of coffee, I’m wondering if I’m missing out and will use this article to dive deeper, seeking to answer the question, is it worth it?

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Today we move on to reviewing Steamer’s favorite starting pitchers compared to THE BAT. As a reminder, Steamer actually proved closer in projected dollar value than THE BAT for all six of the latter’s favorites. Will THE BAT sweep Steamer’s favorites? Let’s find out.

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The LIVE from First Pitch Arizona episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guests: Tristan Cockcroft & Derek Carty

Strategy Section

• Which is more important – the draft or in-season moves?
• Is it more important than ever to bank low-risk players in the early rounds of drafts?
• What makes a risky / consistent player?
  • Is Shohei Ohtani risky for 2024 as a hitter?
  • Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week
  • How should we determine what constitutes a consistent player, and how should we value consistency?
• Young players
  • Should we be cautious to roster young players with limited experience?
  • How should we value the playoff experience of young players?
• Stolen base landscape
  • How should we value SBs in 2024 drafts?
• Closers
  • Optimal strategy in retrospect for 2023
  • Prospective strategy heading into 2024
  • Should we be drafting middle relievers?

2024 First Round

• Who is a player that will be drafted in the first round of 2024 that is undervalued?
• Who is a player that will be drafted in the first round of 2024 that is overvalued?
• Who is a player that will not be drafted in the first round of 2024 that should be?

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Tommy John surgery week continues with the hitter edition. With both Riley Greene and Jasson Domínguez (Shohei Ohtani got the brace procedure) getting a Tommy John surgery, I wanted to know how their performance changed from when they were healthy, to hurt, to fixed.

Note: I’m pushing my limits on what I’d like with a sample was 26 hitters. Sometime the matched seasons doesn’t lineup thereby pushing the number even further down. I understand if someone feels the sample is too small and blows off the results.

I found the change by using a weighted change from season to season. The hitters who had the most matched plate appearance got the most weight. Read the rest of this entry »

The following Asian player comps came about because I was tired of not having a reference when a player signed in the stats from Japan or Korea. The projections seemed off as either being too enthusiastic or just hated the player. This is my solution.

First off, this method is far from perfect. It’s not even close. The main problem is that the largest group to make the jump, pitchers from Japan, only have a sample size of 50 players with most of them being bullpen arms. Those who make projections are using the same sample. I wanted to know who was in that sample. One fact I fact I found while compiling this list is that any projection will have wide error bars so being close is a major achievement.

To create a reference I could use, I took all the players who made the jump from Japan or Korea. I took their single-season stats before the jump to their major league stats. I grouped similar players using z-score on a few core stats. Read the rest of this entry »

With the season over, it’s to find out how hitters performed who didn’t let an injury heal and played through the pain. Whether these hitters cause permanent damage to their bodies or pick up bad habits, they continue to underperform their projections. Besides collecting the names myself, I’ve asked for some help (article and Twitter) for this past season’s list.

I first determined the decline in an article covering 2017 to 2019 and have continued collecting names and results (2020, 2021, and 2022). Read the rest of this entry »

A vulture, according to a quick Google search is:

a large bird of prey with the head and neck more or less bare of feathers, feeding chiefly on carrion (the decaying flesh of dead animals) and reputed to gather with others in anticipation of the death of a sick or injured animal or person.

Mike Baumann, of the Baltimore Orioles, not FanGraphs.com, has been given the nickname, “The Vulture” due to his 2023 fondness for swooping in and picking up the win once the starter leaves the game. It’s a pretty badass nickname and though by literal definition may not be flattering, it’s still pretty cool. I think Bauman and the rest of the O’s bullpen leaning into it would be fun. Just imagine the reliever taking a huge bite out of a cherry snowcone right before running out of the pen. He begins his warm-up pitches from the mound, red dripping down his chin. The vulture has entered the game.

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This season, Blake Snell has the highest walk rate among qualified starters at 13.4%. The league average mark among starters is 7.9%. Yet, Snell has a very solid 2.61 ERA (3.89 xERA) and is allowing only a .197 batting average against his opponents this season. His 1.27 WHIP is actually below the league average (1.31) because of how well he is limiting hits. This is not a new thing for Blake Snell. He has run up his BB% to an even higher peak before:

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