Archive for Projections

Position Player Playing Time Changes: July 23, 2025

by
July 23, 2025
Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Hello! I hope everyone had a great All-Star week, enjoying the first ever tie-breaking Swing Off! But now we’re back to Baseball That Matters, so I’m back to giving you the latest and greatest in playing time changes for position players. Without further ado:

Remaining PT% Changes, 7/15 to 7/22
Name Team Positions Old PT New PT PT Change Reason
Graham Pauley MIA 3B, 1B, 2B, DH 30% 64% 34 Called up to replace Norby
Adrian Del Castillo ARI C,DH 4% 27% 23 Added to MLB roster
JJ Bleday ATH LF,CF 21% 41% 20 Called up to replace Clarke
Chas McCormick HOU CF,LF,RF 23% 41% 18 Activated from IL
Josh Jung TEX 3B 60% 77% 17 Brought back up after quick AAA reset
Liover Peguero PIT 2B, SS 3% 17% 14 Replaced Frazier on roster
Francisco Alvarez NYM C,DH 39% 52% 13 Back up after mashing in AAA
Caleb Durbin MIL 3B, 2B, SS 70% 83% 13 Continues hot hitting as clear starting 3B
Jose Herrera ARI C 13% 25% 12 Moreno setback
Blake Perkins MIL CF 25% 37% 12 Replaced Frelick on roster
Max Muncy LAD 3B, 1B 40% 50% 10 At least slightly ahead of schedule
Edmundo Sosa PHI 3B, 2B, SS 31% 41% 10 Starting 3B with Bohm out
Jordan Walker STL RF 50% 60% 10 Back from IL
Marcell Ozuna ATL DH 84% 74% -10 Losing playing time at DH to Baldwin/Murphy
Nolan Gorman STL DH, 2B, 3B 70% 60% -10 Back discomfort
Jake Bauers MIL 1B,LF,RF 40% 29% -11 Shoulder impingement
Kenedy Corona HOU CF,LF 12% 1% -11 Demoted with McCormick back
Gabriel Moreno ARI C 56% 44% -12 Hand isn’t healing as quickly as hoped
Chase DeLauter CLE RF 30% 18% -12 Visiting wrist specialist
Isaac Paredes HOU 3B 88% 74% -14 Hamstring strain
Alejandro Osuna TEX LF, DH, RF, CF 22% 8% -14 Sent down to AAA
Sal Frelick MIL RF, LF, CF 83% 69% -14 Hamstring strain
Thairo Estrada COL 2B 81% 64% -17 Sprained thumb
Ezequiel Duran TEX SS,LF,3B,1B,2B 35% 18% -17 Playing time harder to come by with Jung back
Jake Burger TEX 3B, DH, 1B 76% 57% -19 Strained quad
Alec Bohm PHI 3B, 1B 92% 59% -33 Fractured rib
Denzel Clarke ATH CF 77% 40% -37 Adductor strain
Connor Norby MIA 3B 74% 34% -40 Hamate surgery

Pitcher Playing Time Changes: July 11, 2025

by
July 11, 2025
Kim Klement Neitzel – Imagn Images

Below are the latest significant playing time projection changes for starters and relievers over the past week. The biggest news is Cam Schlittler‘s call-up, with his debut coming at the unfortunate cost of Clarke Schmidt’s UCL.

Change in Proj. % of Team’s Remaining GS, 7/4 to 7/11
Name Team Old PT New PT PT Change Reason
Cam Schlittler NYY 1% 11% 10% Called up to replace Schmidt
Shinnosuke Ogasawara WSN 3% 8% 5% Taking Williams’ rotation spot
Stephen Kolek SDP 12% 6% -6% Sent to AAA + Darvish back, King soon
Jameson Taillon CHC 18% 11% -7% Calf strain, out about a month
Trevor Williams WSN 11% 0% -11% UCL surgery
Didier Fuentes ATL 14% 0% -14% Sent back to AAA after looking nowhere near ready
Clarke Schmidt NYY 15% 0% -15% Tommy John surgery

 

% Change in Proj. RP IP, 7/4 to 7/11
Name Team % Chg in Proj RP IP Reason
Carson Fulmer LAA 206% Back in MLB as innings-eating reliever
Rico Garcia NYM 154% Has pitched well since call-up
Kolby Allard CLE 150% Back in MLB to take Herrin’s spot
Scott Alexander SFG 127% Back in MLB
Andrew Saalfrank ARI 100% Back in MLB after gambling suspension
Bailey Horn DET 100% Pitching well since callup
Blake Treinen LAD 53% Making good progress in return from injury
Chris Murphy BOS 49% Has quickly become key member of bullpen
Jordan Wicks CHC 35% Should continue to work in Flexen-y innings-eating role
Ben Casparius LAD 33% Back to bullpen with Glasnow back
Joey Lucchesi SFG 33% Miller injury means his lefty-ness is important
Ryan Thompson ARI -31% Scap strain
Mark Leiter Jr. NYY -31% Fibular stress fracture
Shelby Miller ARI -32% Forearm strain
Michael Soroka WSN -33% Likelier to stick in rotation with Williams out for year
Alex Lange DET -33% Setback in rehab
Tim Herrin CLE -34% Sent to AAA
Erik Miller SFG -36% Elbow sprain
Michael Kopech LAD -44% Meniscus surgery
Liam Hendriks BOS -46% Transferred to 60-day IL amidst setback
Janson Junk MIA -46% Pitching great since move to rotation
Hunter Strickland LAA -60% Shoulder inflammation, on 60-day IL
Joey Wentz MIN -80% DFA’d
Trevor Williams WSN -100% UCL surgery
Mitchell Parker WSN -100% Likelier to stick in rotation with Williams out for year
Slade Cecconi CLE -100% Pitching like rotation mainstay
T.J. McFarland ATH -100% DFA’d + elected FA
Zach Pop NYM -100% DFA’d
Ryne Nelson ARI -100% Pitching too well to move back to bullpen

Position Player Playing Time Changes: July 9, 2025

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July 9, 2025
John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

Below are the latest significant rest-of-season projected playing time changes for hitters, headlined by the MLB debut of Colson Montgomery and the quick return of Corbin Carroll. So quick, in fact, that I didn’t even have to change the article photo from last week!

Remaining PT% Changes, 7/1 to 7/8
Name Team Positions Old PT New PT PT Change Reason
John Rave KCR RF, LF, CF 17% 51% 34% Path to playing time is clear with Waters in AAA
Colson Montgomery CHW SS 52% 76% 24% Welcome to MLB!
Corbin Carroll ARI RF, CF 69% 92% 23% Quicker-than-expected return from chip fracture
Yanquiel Fernández COL RF, DH 26% 47% 21% Welcome to MLB!
Zack Gelof ATH 2B 62% 80% 18% Finally back from the IL (hamate, ribs)
Joey Loperfido TOR RF, LF, DH, CF 1% 18% 17% Called up, should start against most/all righties
Austin Nola COL C 8% 24% 16% New backup C over Fulford
Paul DeJong WSN 3B, SS 26% 41% 15% Back from IL, starting against LHP
Andrew Vaughn MIL 1B, DH 6% 20% 14% Recalled to replace Hoskins
Luis Matos SFG LF, RF, CF 7% 21% 14% Back from AAA, playing often
Casey Schmitt SFG 2B, 3B, 1B, SS 42% 56% 14% Back from IL to be starting 2B
Miguel Rojas LAD 3B, 2B, SS, 1B 19% 33% 14% Will get a lot of 3B time with Muncy out
Ezequiel Duran TEX 3B, SS, 2B, LF, 1B, RF 22% 35% 13% Playing fairly often with Jung down
Matt Chapman SFG 3B 84% 96% 12% Quickly back from IL
Jake Burger TEX 1B, 3B, DH 67% 79% 12% Back from IL, maybe some 3B time too?
Jesse Winker NYM DH, LF 32% 43% 11% Nearing IL return
Anthony Seigler MIL 3B, 2B, C 15% 26% 11% Brought up as bench depth
Masataka Yoshida BOS DH, LF 40% 51% 11% Nearing IL return
Noelvi Marte CIN 3B 60% 70% 10% Back from IL, getting most 3B time
Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 TBR SS 72% 82% 10% Back from the IL, could get some maintenance days but is starting SS
Ty France MIN 1B, DH 82% 72% -10% Losing PT vsR to Clemens
Andrés Chaparro WSN DH,1B 17% 7% -10% Sent to AAA
Justin Foscue TEX 1B,DH 11% 1% -10% Sent to AAA
Pavin Smith ARI DH, 1B, LF, RF 59% 48% -11% Oblique strain
Jake McCarthy ARI RF, LF, CF 43% 32% -11% Carroll’s return cuts into playing time
Gary Sánchez BAL C, DH 41% 29% -12% Knee sprain
Luis Urías ATH 2B, 3B, SS 42% 30% -12% Hamstring strain
Lane Thomas CLE CF, RF 70% 58% -12% Plantar fasciitis
Ryan Noda CHW 1B, DH 46% 34% -12% Quad strain
Curtis Mead TBR 3B, 2B, 1B, DH 26% 13% -13% Optioned down for Kim
Rhys Hoskins MIL 1B, DH 82% 68% -14% Sprained thumb
Kerry Carpenter DET RF, LF, DH 69% 55% -14% Strained hammy
Jonatan Clase TOR LF, CF, RF 36% 22% -14% Sent to AAA
Christian Moore LAA 2B 78% 64% -14% Sprained thumb
Daniel Johnson SFG CF, LF, RF 28% 12% -16% Sent to AAA
Gabriel Arias CLE SS, 2B, 3B, 1B 65% 49% -16% Sprained ankle
Yordan Alvarez HOU DH, LF 64% 46% -18% Continued setbacks with hand
Tyler Fitzgerald SFG 2B, SS 54% 35% -19% Sent to AAA
Josh Jung TEX 3B 85% 64% -21% Optioned to AAA
Braxton Fulford COL C 32% 11% -21% Replaced by Nola as backup C
Max Muncy LAD 3B, 1B 78% 40% -38% Knee bone bruise
Drew Waters KCR CF, RF, LF 63% 19% -44% Sent to AAA

Test Driving the “Best” AI News Source

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July 2, 2025

I follow a ton of different news sources besides baseball. An article titled “Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots” caught my eye. I’m not at all surprised by the results, as stated in the title, but I did find one part fascinating. There are generally two parts to AI predicting: the AI itself (e.g. ChatGPT) and a news source. On the news sources, this quote caught my eye.

AskNews is better than other search providers: We have found that a bot using AskNews performs better than bots that use Exa or Perplexity. The template bot was used to test this. The difference between these bots is noticeable, but is not statistically significant.

As someone who mines the news all the time, I was wondering if AskNews.app could supplement my digging. Let’s find out.

Disclaimer: People seem to be on the extreme sides of AI, either they hate or think it’s the great invention of all time. I’m probably somewhere more in the middle. The one aspect I’ve used it for more than any other is coding. I feel I getting coding answers at least 10 times faster than if I did them on my own. I’ve written an app that lets me know if there are any updates to any of the MLB.com injury/transaction pages. I’ve never used it for writing (obviously), but it has it uses.

I decided to give AskNews a test drive yesterday, and the results were interesting, with Fernando Tatis Jr. now throwing 96 mph with a new changeup.

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Position Player Playing Time Changes: July 1, 2025

by
July 1, 2025
John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

Happy July! Below are the latest significant projected playing time changes for position players, unfortunately headlined by Corbin Carroll’s wrist fracture, which threw a massive wrench in his All-Star-caliber season.

Remaining PT% Changes, 6/24 to 7/1
Name Team Positions Old PT New PT PT Change Reason
Will Wagner TOR 3B, 1B, 2B, DH 7% 31% 24% Called back up, replacing Roden
Yanquiel Fernández COL RF 3% 26% 23% Getting his first call to the majors, Tuesday
Isaac Collins MIL LF, RF, CF 24% 44% 20% Has played well + Mitchell surgery will keep him playing
Tommy Pham PIT LF,DH 40% 60% 20% Finally heating up, 143 wRC+ in last 15 games
Colby Thomas ATH LF,RF 3% 21% 18% Called up, but will have to earn playing time
Austin Hays CIN LF, DH, RF, CF 56% 72% 16% Back from the IL
Jake McCarthy ARI LF,CF,RF 27% 43% 16% Called up to replace Carroll
Zach McKinstry DET RF, 3B, 2B, SS, LF, 1B 58% 73% 15% Will continue to play almost daily with Sweeney sent down
Jake Fraley CIN RF, DH 61% 45% -16% Shoulder sprain
Willie MacIver ATH C 19% 3% -16% Sent down with Langeliers back
Jeremy Peña HOU SS 97% 80% -17% Fractured rib, timetable unclear
JJ Bleday ATH CF, LF 56% 36% -20% Sent back down
Trey Sweeney DET SS 55% 30% -25% Sent to AAA
Corbin Carroll ARI RF, CF 95% 69% -26% Fractured wrist
Garrett Mitchell MIL CF 37% 7% -30% Shoulder surgery, may or may not return this year

Pitcher Playing Time Changes: June 27, 2025

by
June 27, 2025
Sam Greene-The Enquirer

Below are the latest significant projected playing time changes for pitchers in the last week, with Chase Burns‘ MLB debut the big headline. As always, you can see the rest-of-season percentages for each team on the Depth Chart diagram here.

Change in Proj. % of Team’s Remaining GS, 6/20 to 6/27
Name Team Old % of Remaining GS New % of Remaining GS PT Change Reason
Chase Burns CIN 2% 13% 11% Called up, and looks legit!
Braxton Ashcraft PIT 2% 7% 5% Moved to rotation, finally
Eric Lauer 라우어 TOR 5% 10% 5% Pitching very well in Francis’ stead
Keider Montero DET 12% 7% -5% Optioned to AAA
Ben Brown CHC 12% 7% -5% Optioned to AAA
Chris Sale ATL 19% 12% -7% Fractured ribcage
Nick Martinez CIN 16% 9% -7% Might do some more bouncing back and forth from bullpen with Burns up
Spencer Turnbull TOR 8% 0% -8% DFA’d
Max Meyer MIA 11% 0% -11% Season-ending hip surgery

 

% Change in Proj. RP IP, 6/20 to 6/27
Name Team % Chg in Proj. RP IP Reason
Nick Martinez CIN 191% Might do some more bouncing back and forth from bullpen with Burns up
Wikelman González CHW 178% Called up
Dedniel Núñez NYM 60% Likelier to stick in bullpen with Canning hurt
Austin Warren NYM 53% Likelier to stick in bullpen with Canning hurt
Jordan Hicks BOS 33% Nearing Red Sox debut
Mitch Spence ATH -31% Pitching too well in rotation to move back
Kumar Rocker TEX -38% Pitching well in rotation since recall
Hunter Bigge TBR -41% Facial fractures on foul ball
Max Kranick NYM -66% Elbow strain
José Ruiz ATL -69% DFA’d + outrighted
Matt Gage DET -74% DFA’d
Dylan Floro ATH -100% Released from MiLB deal
Hunter Stratton PIT -100% DFA’d
Kutter Crawford BOS -100% Wrist surgery
A.J. Puk ARI -100% Elbow surgery
Cody Bradford TEX -100% Elbow surgery

Projections-Fueled Top 30 Pitching Prospects, Midseason 2025 Update

by
June 25, 2025
Syndication: The Enquirer

This article takes a look at baseball’s top 30 pitching prospects from a projections-based perspective now that half of the 2025 season is in the books. Jump to the bottom for the updated list!

The projections capture prospect performance across the minor and major leagues in recent years, making use of aging curves, major league equivalencies, league environment adjustments, park factors, and regression to project peak (late-20s) prospect performance. They also capture Stuff+ courtesy of Eno Sarris (only for arms with MLB experience), and, starting this season, velocity (for all minor and major leaguers). They do not capture scouting or amateur performance. For comparison and more methodological detail, you can find the preseason list here, last year’s midseason list here, and an introduction to the projections here.

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Position Player Playing Time Changes: June 24, 2025

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June 25, 2025
Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Below are the latest playing time changes for position players in the past week. Welcome back, Chandler Simpson!

Remaining PT% Changes, 6/17 to 6/24
Name Team Positions Old PT New PT PT Change Reason
Chandler Simpson TBR CF, LF 20% 53% 33% Called back up
James McCann ARI C 2% 23% 21% Fill-in for Moreno, sharing with Herrera
Noelvi Marte CIN 3B 40% 60% 20% Clear path to playing time (when healthy) with Jeimer DFA
Ben Williamson SEA 3B 36% 55% 19% Quietly hitting better of late
Dominic Canzone SEA RF, LF, CF 32% 50% 18% Has raked since call-up, Raley playing 1B
Casey Schmitt SFG 2B, 3B, 1B, SS 39% 54% 15% On a hot streak, should be starting 2B when Chapman is back
Adley Rutschman BAL C,DH 90% 74% -16% Strained oblique
Kristian Campbell BOS 2B, 1B, DH, CF, LF 76% 60% -16% Time in AAA might not be very short, working on 1B
Francisco Alvarez NYM C, DH 55% 38% -17% Sent to AAA, needs to start hitting for the power we know he has
Gabriel Moreno ARI C, DH 81% 63% -18% Fractured finger
Jake Burger TEX 1B, DH, 3B 82% 62% -20% Oblique strain, albeit minor
Tyler Fitzgerald SFG 2B, SS 69% 43% -26% Sent to AAA
Kameron Misner TBR CF, LF, RF 60% 13% -47% Sent to AAA amidst brutal slump

Projections-Fueled Top 30 Hitting Prospects, Midseason 2025 Update

by
June 21, 2025

Now that almost 50% of the season is in the books, it’s a good time to check in on baseball’s top hitting prospects from a projections-based perspective. You can see the preseason list here and last year’s midseason list here. Those articles also feature more methodological detail if you want to read more about the projections process. Briefly, the projections capture prospect performance across the (non-DSL) minor and major leagues in recent years, making use of aging curves, major league equivalencies, league environment adjustments, park factors, regression, and more, to project peak (late-20s) prospect performance in the majors. They do not capture scouting, defense, or amateur performance. Starting this offseason, they also capture bat speed, which was made available for a decent handful of prospects this spring training.

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Overall Episode w/ Marc Winokur

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June 20, 2025

The Overall episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Marc Winokur

League Updates

  • GDD
    • Trade!
  • NFBC
    • 1st half sucesss

Strategy Section

  • NFBC Overall Contests
    • When should you alter your focus from the single league contest to playing for an overall contest title?
      • Does the size of your lead matter?
      • Does format matter – FAAB vs. non-FAAB?
    • Do you alter draft strategy at all due to the overall component of NFBC contests?
  • The 2025 fantasy basbeall winning strategy to date
  • Are Ohtani/Judge auction bids (i.e. high priced, but high returning players) efficient?

ATC Half Season

  • Hits and Misses
    • Luis Arraez value
    • The profitable range of the pre-season auction market for hitters and pitchers

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

Buy/Sell/Hold

Waiver Wire

Pitcher Preview

Injury Update

 

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