The First Week Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Glenn Colton

Intro

• Biggest regret of the draft season

Strategy Section

• How long into the season should you still use pre-season projections?
• Trading early in the season
• Fernando Tatis Jr.
  • Injury Update
  • What discount would you be willing to take in order to trade him away?
  • The Tatis trading market
• Setting fantasy lineups in April
• Setting waiver claims in April
• Closer volatility

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Our MLB DFS lineups don’t start and end with pitching. My first five-figure tournament score came on a night where Collin McHugh scored negative points, I think–or maybe it was, like, six points. Extremely flukey, as I made the big money because Justin Turner hit three HRs for me at nearly no ownership. I’m not saying to put pitcher every night or even every now and then. I’m just stressing that each and every slate does not rest upon our pitching.

The pitcher position is so vital because it’s the slot where we can get the most accurate projection in an extremely volatile wing of DFS.

Our pitching isn’t just a source of fantasy points. The price tags on pitchers make it so they shape they dictate the freedoms and restrictions of building our lineups. Before reading this article, it’s highly suggested that you read my article, “DFS Pitching Primer,”so the concepts discussed here make more sense.

That we’re not selecting the best players to win tournaments. We’re constructing the lineups which carry the most leverage without sacrificing many projected fantasy points.
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The Bold Predictions Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Scott Pianowski

Strategy Section

• 2021 Draft Trends
  • Starters pushed up
  • Reliever pricing
  • Prospects
• Adalberto Mondesi
  • Injury Update
  • The case for drafting him
  • The case against drafting him
    • Discussion of Risk and Risk-Adjusted Pricing
  • Comparison to Byron Buxton
  • Comparison to Carlos Gomez

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Opening day is upon us!

Starting this afternoon, Major League Baseball games will officially count for the 2021 season standings.

After a 60-game short season in 2020, baseball looks to drive us just a bit closer towards normalcy. Yes, there will still be abundant COVID protocols in effect, and yes – fan attendance will be restricted. But for most of us, the sun feels just a bit brighter today.

A large number of our fantasy baseball drafts and auctions this year were shifted to virtual venues. Aside from a larger online presence, the vast majority of fantasy baseball players had a somewhat normal draft season. Remember last year, when we essentially had two distinct baseball draft seasons (in February/March as well as in June/July)? Hopefully the 2021 season will proceed without major interruptions.

It is now time to share my 2021 bold predictions with you. One of the first fantasy baseball articles that I had ever written was the 2018 edition. I am proud to be back for the 4^th straight year, sharing with you a few unlikely events – that I believe have the chance to come true.

As usual, the ATC Projections have helped shape much of what is to come in this article. Some predictions stem from my own personal analysis on the player, or of a team situation. Other nuggets arise from blind optimism or the crossing of my fingers. These are all possibilities that could happen, that I feel will happen if things break just right.

As always – please remember: These are bold predictions, not crazy predictions. I am not going to predict the impossible. Raimel Tapia will not lead the majors in homers, and I won’t predict that. Khris Davis will not contend for a batting title, and I won’t consider that. Those are not bold predictions – those are impossible ones.

My definition of a bold prediction is one that lies roughly in the 70^th to 90^th range of percentile possible outcomes. If done right, one should expect to hit on some 10-30% of all bold predictions in the long-term. Any more outlandish than 10% would be miraculous, while any more probable than 30% would be too easy a guess.

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On Monday, I shared the names of eight pitchers whose Pod Projected ERA is significantly lower than Steamer. Today, let’s flip to the ERA downside names. Remember that in aggregate, Pod ERA projections are lower than Steamer, so the gap between ERA forecasts below are a lot smaller than on the upside list. Since it’s really relative projections and calculated dollar values that matter (we care how the projections compare to the player pool, not whether the pitcher is projected for a 3.00 ERA vs a 14.00 ERA), try to ignore the small degree Pod’s ERA is higher than Steamer and remember these are the largest outliers, so if put on the same ERA scale, the difference would be greater.

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This week, I finish up the Pod vs Steamer series that pits my Pod Projections against the Steamer projections. Today, we move on to pitchers, where I’ll compare the ERA forecasts from each of the systems and identify those pitchers I am projecting for significantly better ERA marks. Though Steamer is the best pitching projection system out there, it struggles on pitchers that have shown consistent BABIP and HR/FB rate suppression skills and deficiencies, as what usually works for the majority of pitchers — projecting a heavy dose of regression to the MLB mean — means it misses on those uncommon exceptions. I use Statcast’s xBABIP now for my projections, so I’m not afraid to forecast a mark that strays from the league average. However, I certainly still include some regression as we don’t always have enough batted balls in a pitcher’s history for that mark to stabilize.

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The Pre-Season Recap Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

The focus of this podcast is on fantasy baseball strategy.

Today, we look back at the topics and highlights of our pre-season coverage. We give a preview of what you can look forward to on the show in the coming months.

Follow us on Twitter

• Ariel Cohen (@ATCNY)
• Reuven Guy (@mlbinjuryguru)
• Beat the Shift Podcast (@Beat_Shift_Pod)

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Yesterday, I compared my Pod Projections in the stolen base category to Steamer and identified five hitters I am forecasting for a meaningfully higher stolen base total. Today, let’s now look at the hitters I’m projecting for fewer stolen bases than Steamer. I’ll only highlight the fantasy relevant names as there are a number projected for limited playing time that aren’t worth discussing.

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The Spring Training Injury Update Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Spring Training Injury Updates

Batters

• Alex Bregman
• Xander Bogaerts
• J.T. Realmuto
• Trent Grisham
• Rhys Hoskins
• Nick Madrigal
• Brandon Belt
• Ji-Man Choi
• Adam Haseley
• Lorenzo Cain
• Kole Calhoun
• Evan Longoria
• Miguel Andujar
• Brendan Rodgers
• Jarred Kelenic

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The Mock Draft Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Ray Murphy

Strategy Section

• Snake Draft
  • General Strategy & Method
  • Strategy differences between shallow & deeper formats
  • Early observations of 2021 drafts

RotoBaller Mock Draft

• Setting the statge – Rules & Format
• Live Draft !!!
  • Draft Board: https://rtsports.com/rotoballer
• Draft Recap

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