Last week, I reviewed my hitter Pod Projections vs Steamer projections comparisons. Let’s now move along to the starting pitchers and ERA. As a reminder from my original post:

Though Steamer is the best pitching projection system out there, it struggles on pitchers that have shown consistent BABIP and HR/FB rate suppression skills and deficiencies, as what usually works for the majority of pitchers — projecting a heavy dose of regression to the MLB mean — means it misses on those uncommon exceptions. I use Statcast’s xBABIP now for my projections, so I’m not afraid to forecast a mark that strays from the league average. However, I certainly still include some regression as we don’t always have enough batted balls in a pitcher’s history for that mark to stabilize.

Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve been slowly working my way through the hitter projections and that journey comes to an end today as I examine how each projected hitter rate stats stand up. Besides batting average, I turn each of the counting stats into a rate by dividing by plate appearances. Finally, I adjust each value to the actual league rates. Again, any combination of projections stick out along with the BAT.

For reference, here are the projections used.

• Steamer (FanGraphs)
• ZIPS
• DepthCharts (FanGraphs)
• The Bat
• The Bat X
• Davenport
• ATC (FanGraphs)
• Pod (Mike Podhorzer)
• Masterball (Todd Zola)
• PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus)
• RotoWire
• Razzball (Steamer)
• ZEILE (Fantasy Pros)*
• Paywall #1
• Average of the above projections

To create a list of players to compare for accuracy, I took the NFBC Main Event ADP (players in demand at that time) and selected the hitters in the top-450 drafted players (30-man roster, 15 teams in the Main Event). To determine accuracy, I calculated the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for two different sets of values. RMSE is a “measure of how far from the regression line data points are” and the smaller a value the better. Additionally, I included the actual and league average rates for reference. Read the rest of this entry »

After diving into early draft hitter projections, the late draft season hitter projections get their time in the sun. First up is the counting stats that are heavily influenced on accurately guesstimating playing time. As with the early projections, the Bat and the Wisdom of the Crowds stand out with the addition of the Pod projections joining the others near the top.

For the projections, I pulled the following ones from the morning of March 30.

• Steamer (FanGraphs)
• ZIPS
• DepthCharts (FanGraphs)
• The Bat
• The Bat X
• Davenport
• ATC (FanGraphs)
• Pod (Mike Podhorzer)
• Masterball (Todd Zola)
• PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus)
• RotoWire
• Razzball (Steamer)
• ZEILE (Fantasy Pros)*
• Paywall #1

I didn’t run the values on CBS even though I pulled them. They were missing quite a few players and I messed up not pulling the Utility-onlys. Additionally, I pulled the ZEILE projections which are an average of several projections. Read the rest of this entry »

In mid-March, I listed and discussed the 10 hitters my Pod Projections forecasted for more home runs per 600 at-bats than Steamer. All that means is that I calculated the player’s projected AB/HR ratio from both systems and then extrapolated those projections over 600 at-bats, so I’m isolating the home run rate skill and keeping playing time constant. Let’s dive into the results.

Read the rest of this entry »

The End of Season Recap Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

The focus of this podcast is on fantasy baseball strategy.

Today, we look back at the topics and highlights of our season-long coverage, and give thanks to all those that made our show extraodinary this year.

Follow us on Twitter

• Ariel Cohen (@ATCNY)
• Reuven Guy (@mlbinjuryguru)
• Beat the Shift Podcast (@Beat_Shift_Pod)

Podcast (beat-the-shift): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

The following analysis is beyond nerdy.

I’ll try to keep it simple as possible, but no guarantees. This past week, I examined the results of several hitter projection systems. In the comments of the first article, Mays Copeland and Skin Blues brought up a near 15-year-old thread on the InsideTheBook blog between Tom Tango and Nate Silver. Read the rest of this entry »

In my last article, I focused on the early-season projection accuracy of hitter playing time. Today, the rest of the standard 5×5 Roto hitting stats finally take center stage. Besides the counting stats, I turn each of them into rate stats to help determine projection accuracy. After completing the analysis, three options stick out.

As a reminder, here are the projections I used and some background on the analysis.

Projections

• Steamer (FanGraphs)
• ZIPS
• DepthCharts (FanGraphs)
• The Bat
• The Bat X
• Davenport
• ATC (FanGraphs)
• Pod (Mike Podhorzer)
• Masterball (Todd Zola)
• PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus)
• RotoWire
• CBS
• Razzball (Steamer)
• Paywall #1

To create a list of players to compare for accuracy, I took the TGFBI ADP (players in demand at that time) and selected the hitter in the top-450 drafted players (30-man roster, 15 teams in TGFBI). Generally, all the players were projected with the following exceptions. Rotowire and Pods didn’t have a Josh Rojas projection while Pods also didn’t have projections for Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Mike Brosseau. Additionally, CBS was missing several projections. I am blamed for part of it because I forgot to pull designated hitters and they didn’t project as many outfielders. Finally, I just removed the projection for Yasiel Puig. Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve always wanted to do a projection analysis, especially at different time points. I had it started in 2020 and everything fell apart with the shortened season. I’m starting off simply today by looking at at-bat projections from March 1st with the Wisdom of the Crowds prevailing.

The reason I chose March 1st was that The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (TGFBI) started drafted that day. I pulled all 14 projections that morning. I contacted the paid providers and all but one agreed to have their name associated with the results. They are:

Projections

• Steamer (FanGraphs)
• ZIPS
• DepthCharts (FanGraphs)
• The Bat
• The Bat X
• Davenport
• ATC (FanGraphs)
• Pod (Mike Podhorzer)
• Masterball (Todd Zola)
• PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus)
• RotoWire
• CBS
• Razzball (Steamer)
• Paywall #1

Read the rest of this entry »

The Live Episode from First Pitch Arizona 2021 of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Derek Carty

What’s new in THE BAT X for 2022?

Strategy Section

• Risk
  • How to deal with injury risk
  • How to discount for binary risk
  • Low risk players / consistent players
    • Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week
  • Categorical Risk
    • Who would you rather draft – Bo Bichette or Vladimir Guerrero Jr.?
  • Replacement Level Risk
    • The risk of paying up for a super elite catcher (Salvador Perez / J.T. Realmuto).
  • Ace Pitcher Risk – Should you draft pitchers in the first few rounds?
  • Stacking Risk – Doubling up in one league vs. spreading out in two different leagues
• Auction
  • Spread the Risk vs. Stars & Scrubs
    • League depth matters
    • Grab value in every price tier
  • The value at the corner infield position
  • The Joey Votto nomination strategy

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast (beat-the-shift): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

The Season Wrap-Up Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Ian Kahn

Most memorable moments of the baseball season

Strategy Section

• Which is more important at the draft – Having better knowledge of the players, or better valuation & auction/drafting skills?
• Which is more true?
  • Leagues are won on draft day vs.
  • Leagues are won with great in-season moves & pickups
• Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week
• Do you have to walk away with speed in the first few rounds?
  • 1st Round Pick – Bo Bichette vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
• The Case for An Ace – Do you need to walk away with an ace (or two aces) in the first few rounds?
• Is it worth paying up for a super elite catcher (Salvador Perez / J.T. Realmuto)?
• Is it worth paying up for closers?
• Can you wait on corner infielders?
  • Should you disregard positions in the first few rounds?

Our successes and failures in 2021

Sandy Alcantara – Is he a top 10 pitcher for 2022?

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast (beat-the-shift): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS