Today, I continue my Pod Projections vs Steamer battle, this time moving along to stolen bases. Similarly to the way I compared our home run forecasts, I’m going to calculate a PA/SB rate first and then extrapolate that projection over 650 plate appearances so we’re only comparing stolen base projections and playing time forecasts don’t factor in. I’ll begin with the players I’m projecting for more stolen bases, or the upside guys.
Earlier this offseason I examined the accuracy of several projections. I’m going to give my recommendations today on the best way to balance those findings between getting the best results and keeping the process simple. I’m going to focus on playing time and stats for pitchers and hitters. While there could a way to weigh every single stat of every projection, it’s just a waste of time in my opinion. The best answer is to aggregate the best options.
I know some people will want a more in-depth answer while the following will be too much for others. Some projections, like ATC, are already trying to perfect the mix and still fall short of a straight average. The cause for the disconnect is that some of the stand-alone projections are constantly improving. What may be the best projection mix in one season is suboptimal in the next. I’m willing to have 95% of the projection accuracy and instead spend my time looking for information that the projections might have missed. Read the rest of this entry »
Yesterday, I began my annual Pod vs Steamer series by pitting my Pod Projections against Steamer in home run forecasts, highlighting those players I was more optimistic on. Rather than compare raw home run totals that are highly influenced by at-bat projections that may differ significantly, I put both projections on the same scale, 600 at-bats. That way we are comparing the home run skill forecasts with no influence from differences in playing time expectations.
Every year, I pit my Pod Projections (now available!) against the Steamer projections in various categories. Today, I’m going to continue the annual smackdowns by calculating AB/HR rates and then extrapolating them over 600 at-bats. At that point, I’ll compare how many home runs each system is forecasting, given a 600 at-bat projection. I’ll start by sharing the names of hitters Pod is projecting for significantly more home runs than Steamer.
The 2022 Pod Projections are now available and include nearly 550 player lines! As usual in my Pod Projection posts, I’ll dive into my projection methodology (detailed in Projecting X 2.0) by sharing my process on several hitters and pitchers.
The Starting Pitcher (Part II) Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
Guest: Nick Pollack
Strategy Section
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It’s been a longer wait than in the past, but it’s finally Pod Projections time! The 2022 forecasts are now available and include nearly 550 player lines. As usual in my Pod Projection posts, I’ll dive into my projection methodology (detailed in Projecting X 2.0) by sharing my process on several hitters and pitchers.
Today, I’ll analyze former top overall prospect, Wander Franco. He made his eagerly anticipated debut last season and was as solid as expected, despite being just 20 years old. While a 14 homer and four stolen base pace over a full season certainly didn’t thrill fantasy owners, he posted a .348 wOBA and managed to maintain his sterling contact ability by striking out just 12% of the time. That’s mightily impressive for a rookie who wasn’t even of legal drinking age yet.
The Starting Pitcher (Part I) Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
Guest: Alex Chamberlain
Alex’s pitch tool
Strategy Section
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The latest episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
Guest: Brian Bannister – Director of Pitching, San Francisco Giants (& former major league player with NYM/KCR)
Interview
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The Outfield Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
Guest: Jeff Erickson
Strategy Section
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