Every year, I pit my Pod Projections (now available!) against the Steamer projections in various categories. Today, I’m going to continue the annual smackdowns by calculating AB/HR rates and then extrapolating them over 600 at-bats. At that point, I’ll compare how many home runs each system is forecasting, given a 600 at-bat projection. I’ll start by sharing the names of hitters Pod is projecting for significantly more home runs than Steamer.

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The 2022 Pod Projections are now available and include nearly 550 player lines! As usual in my Pod Projection posts, I’ll dive into my projection methodology (detailed in Projecting X 2.0) by sharing my process on several hitters and pitchers.

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The Starting Pitcher (Part II) Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Nick Pollack

Strategy Section

• Lockout
  • How it affects starting pitcher strategy in 2022 drafts
  • The importance of spring training
• Starting pitcher strategy
  • General – Auction vs. Snake Draft
  • Riskiness in the elite starting pitchers this season
• Sandy Alcantara debate

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It’s been a longer wait than in the past, but it’s finally Pod Projections time! The 2022 forecasts are now available and include nearly 550 player lines. As usual in my Pod Projection posts, I’ll dive into my projection methodology (detailed in Projecting X 2.0) by sharing my process on several hitters and pitchers.

Today, I’ll analyze former top overall prospect, Wander Franco. He made his eagerly anticipated debut last season and was as solid as expected, despite being just 20 years old. While a 14 homer and four stolen base pace over a full season certainly didn’t thrill fantasy owners, he posted a .348 wOBA and managed to maintain his sterling contact ability by striking out just 12% of the time. That’s mightily impressive for a rookie who wasn’t even of legal drinking age yet.

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The Starting Pitcher (Part I) Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Alex Chamberlain

Alex’s pitch tool

• Comparing players with similar pitches
• Finding undervalued players

Strategy Section

• Pitchers most likely to throw 200 innings in 2022
• Starting pitcher strategy
  • General – Auction vs. Snake Draft
  • Riskiness in the elite starting pitchers this season
  • Two 1As vs. an ace strategy for 2022
• Effect of the Universal DH
  • Pick the AL pitcher over the NL pitcher?
  • Draft a pitcher in a particular division?
• Undervalued prospects & sleeper pitchers
  • Peyton Battenfield
  • Patrick Sandoval

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The latest episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Brian Bannister – Director of Pitching, San Francisco Giants (& former major league player with NYM/KCR)

Interview

• Highlight of career
  • Coaching highlight
  • Major league pitching highlight
  • Mets highlight
• Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week
• Impact on college team
• Analytics
  • Some of the current analytics being used
  • Having a hunch and then researching it when the analytics tools are available
  • Impact on current team
  • Using all of the tools at your disposal
  • Studying the outliers & great players to find success for current players
  • Organizations differ in analytics use
  • What are some analytics used by teams that aren’t available publically?
  • VAA, Seam Shifted Wake, etc.
  • Learning from the uniqueness of players
  • Using analytics to play to a player’s strengths vs. exploiting an opponent’s weaknesses

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The Outfield Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Jeff Erickson

Strategy Section

• Playing in multiple leagues
  • How does the draft preparation differ between leagues?
  • Knowing the market of each individual league and creating specific game plans.
  • Does strategy alter by playing in multiple leagues?
    • To what extent should you diversify the players taken in each league?
  • Keeping track of multiple leagues in season
  • Waiver wire in season
    • Start with the shallow leagues
    • Using information from leagues with an earlier FAAB time slot for leagues with later ones
  • How to prioritze leagues in late summer
    • Learning from leagues that are lost
• The impact of the current lockout on drafting
  • Closer prices
  • FAAB early season
  • Mono leagues
    • Actuarial goodness for Ariel

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The Closer Rebuttal for 2022 Drafts Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Strategy Section

• Closer rebuttal for 2022 drafts
  • Historical earnings for top closers
  • Early closers may bake in a certain value loss
  • Low historical hit rates for closers
  • Drafting top closers means passing up on valuable players
  • Drafting a starting pitcher instead of a top closer – one less starter to find on the waiver wire
  • Too much uncertainty in bullpens
  • Too much draft capital invested in a one-category player
  • Use a combination of absolute value and relative value

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Over the past few weeks, I have been posting Ottoneu positional rankings, with dollar tiers instead of specific values. I took this approach last year, as well. It represents an evolution from where I was a few years back, when I regularly posted dollar values.

I have a growing discomfort with the idea that I can or should try to predict a player’s precise value. I don’t believe I was ever naive enough to think a value I put on a player was exact and not subject to error. I did, however, think the error bars could be managed – a $10 player might not be exactly $10 but he’s probably not $6 or $7 and he’s probably not $13 or $14. Over time, I have come to believe those ranges are wider. How much wider? Well, a lot.

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The Auction Strategy Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Glenn Colton

Strategy Section

• Auction Strategy
  • Online auctions vs. live auctions
  • Having a partner in an auction
  • Auction preparation vs. snake draft preparation
  • Scouting prior to an auction
  • Constructing auction values
  • How strict should you be to your values?
    • When should you bid over your values?
  • Hitter vs. Pitcher % split in auctions
  • Closer market premiums in 2022
  • Auction values for unsigned free agents in mono leagues
    • Playing in multiple leagues – hedging bets
  • Constructing market value dollars
    • Converting ADP to dollars
  • Constructing an auction plan
    • Finding the hotspots
• Nomination Strategy
  • Nominating players you want vs. players you don’t want
    • Pacing yourself through the auction
  • Plan A / Plan B nomination
  • Economic Box nomination
  • Blocking a position nomination
• Bidding Tactics
  • Freeze bidding
  • Starting bids for players
  • Incremental bidding vs. jump bidding
  • Bidding on the 9’s, bidding on the 0’s
  • Price enforcing

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