Category: Projections | Page 2 | RotoGraphs Fantasy Baseball

Position Player Playing Time Changes: July 14, 2026

by Jon Becker

July 14, 2026

We’ve reached the not-actually-halfway-but-people-call-it-that-because-of-the-All-Star-Break point of the season! Here are notable projected position player playing time changes for the last two weeks as we enter the second “half” on Thursday.

Significant Playing Time Changes, Hitters, 6/30 to 7/14

Name	Team	Position	Old PT %	New PT %	PT Change	Old PA	New PA	PA Change	Reason
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer	ATH	2B, SS, 3B	14%	58%	44%	40	165	125	Litany of injuries open more playing time, plus he’s hitting well
Ryan Jeffers	MIN	C, DH	34%	73%	39%	97	208	111	Back from the IL
Esmerlyn Valdez	PIT	RF, DH, LF	27%	65%	38%	77	185	108	The Magician is a key cog in the lineup now
LaMonte Wade Jr.	HOU	LF, RF, 1B	14%	46%	32%	40	131	91	Returned from IL and starting every day against RHP
Luis Lara	MIL	RF, CF	3%	35%	32%	9	100	91	Called up to the majors and deserves to play semi-regularly, but OF is crowded
Tim Tawa	ARI	1B, 2B, CF, LF	8%	39%	31%	23	111	88	Getting a crack at 1B with Smith DFA’d
Munetaka Murakami	CHW	1B, DH	65%	91%	26%	185	260	74	Back from the IL
Jim Jarvis	ATL	SS, 3B, 2B	3%	28%	25%	9	80	71	Starting SS with Kim injured
Ryan Waldschmidt	ARI	CF, LF	23%	48%	25%	66	137	71	With Tawa getting 1B time, more OF time open
Ke’Bryan Hayes	CIN	3B	25%	48%	23%	71	137	66	Back from the IL
Alan Roden	MIN	RF, LF, DH	25%	47%	22%	71	134	63	Called up to replace Byron Buxton on the roster
Jonah Heim	ATH	C, DH, 1B	30%	50%	20%	86	143	57	Will do some filling in at 1B with Kurtz out
Ronald Acuña Jr.	ATL	RF, DH	67%	87%	20%	191	248	57	Nearing IL return
Kahlil Watson	CLE	LF, RF, CF, DH	34%	54%	20%	97	154	57	Ingle’s option makes him a surefire regular for now
Colby Thomas	ATH	RF, LF, CF	25%	45%	20%	71	128	57	Gelof injury makes him a more regular OF
Victor Caratini	MIN	C, DH, 1B	72%	52%	-20%	205	148	-57	Jeffers return cuts into C time
Samad Taylor	SDP	LF, CF, RF, 2B	59%	39%	-20%	168	111	-57	Oblique strain, he hopes mild
Nick Kurtz	ATH	1B	94%	72%	-22%	268	205	-63	Thumb sprain, timeline unclear but hopefully won’t be too long
Mark Vientos	NYM	1B, DH, 3B	54%	30%	-24%	154	86	-68	Fractured hand
Joey Loperfido	HOU	LF, CF, RF	52%	27%	-25%	148	77	-71	Optioned to minors
Ha-seong Kim	ATL	SS	70%	44%	-26%	200	125	-74	Finger inflammation; on rehab assignment but it’s unclear how much PT will be available to him when back
Cooper Ingle	CLE	LF, DH, C	41%	14%	-27%	117	40	-77	Optioned to minors
Kameron Misner	KCR	CF	33%	5%	-28%	94	14	-80	Optioned to minors
Matt Chapman	SFG	3B	95%	66%	-29%	271	188	-83	Strained abdominal muscle
Max Muncy	ATH	3B, SS, 2B	65%	16%	-49%	185	46	-140	Optioned to minors
Pavin Smith	ARI	1B, DH, RF	52%	1%	-51%	148	3	-145	DFA’d
Konnor Griffin	PIT	SS, DH	89%	33%	-56%	254	94	-160	Finger injury will keep him out ~2 months

Simplified Analysis: OPS and xFIP

by Jeff Zimmerman

July 10, 2026

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Over the years, I’ve gone to the cutting edge of stats to find advantages. I can go into a deep analysis on any player’s fantasy value, but there isn’t always time to analyze each player’s profile. For a shortcut, I use OPS to evaluate hitters and xFIP and botERA for pitchers. They give me a good predictive look, especially in a small sample. Besides those stats, I might make a cursory look at BABIP and Contact% for hitters and K%-BB% for pitchers.

Note: Recent plate appearances could be the #1 stat to follow for hitters, but I’m going to focus on production stats.

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Humanity vs. the Robots: Round 2

by Jonathan Vander Lugt

July 10, 2026

Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Earlier this week when I detailed what is sure to be the most important human versus machine debate our society will face, I found that the projection robots very narrowly edge the ADP market when it comes to predicting fantasy performance. That analysis, though, was based on a half-season of 2026 data with a hint that there might be more to come.

This is that follow-up. My goal here was to conduct a broader analysis on more data to see if the conclusions held up, and it turns out that they did.

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Pitcher Playing Time Changes: July 10, 2026

by Jon Becker

July 10, 2026

After a week off for the holiday, I’m back with notable pitcher playing time changes for the last two weeks for starters and relievers. Here are the tables:

Significant Remaining Projected Playing Time Changes, SP, 6/26 to 7/10

Name	Team	Old % of Team’s Remaining GS	New % of Team’s Remaining GS	% Change	Old Remaining GS	New Remaining GS	GS Change	Reason
Jake Bennett	BOS	5%	13%	8%	4	9	5	Holding onto Early’s rotation spot
Luinder Avila	KCR	7%	13%	6%	5	9	4	Ragans/Bubic injuries solidify his spot
Hunter Greene	CIN	13%	18%	5%	9	13	4	Back from the IL
Cole Ragans	KCR	6%	0%	-6%	4	0	-4	UCL surgery might wipe out 2027 too
Kris Bubic	KCR	14%	8%	-6%	10	6	-4	Rehab assignment put on hold
Cristian Javier	HOU	14%	8%	-6%	10	6	-4	Working out of the bullpen for now
Chris Bassitt	BAL	15%	9%	-6%	11	6	-5	Back surgery pushes return back
Connelly Early	BOS	15%	8%	-7%	11	6	-5	Elbow inflammation
Rhett Lowder	CIN	14%	7%	-7%	10	5	-5	Moved to bullpen, is Triple-A next?
Patrick Corbin	TOR	13%	5%	-8%	9	4	-5	Moved to bullpen
Carlos Rodón	NYY	19%	10%	-9%	13	7	-6	Elbow inflammation
Brandon Woodruff	MIL	16%	6%	-10%	11	4	-7	New shoulder injury, return this season unclear

Significant Remaining Projected Playing Time Changes, RP, 6/26 to 7/10

Name	Team	Old Remaining RP IP	New Remaining RP IP	Chg	Reason
Jordan Romano	COL	10	34	24	Has taken over as closer(!) since contract selected from minors
Jason Foley	SFG	12	30	18	Nearing IL return
Jovani Morán	BOS	18	29	12	Back from IL and important in the middle innings
Wilber Dotel	PIT	17	28	11	Nearing IL return
Mark Leiter Jr.	ATH	23	33	10	Back from IL and could quickly move up the trust tree in that mess of a bullpen
Austin Warren	NYM	31	9	-22	Strained forearm
Jalen Beeks	TEX	27	0	-27	Season-ending flexor tendon surgery
Anthony Banda	MIN	34	0	-34	Season-ending lat surgery

Humanity vs. the Robots: Who Will Win?

by Jonathan Vander Lugt

July 6, 2026

Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

While writing my recent articles about how to use projections to find undervalued players based on market ADPs, I was struck by a follow-up question: when ranking players, which is better – ADP, or projections?

As we strive to value players more objectively, probing this question is valuable. It will help calibrate how much weight to assign consensus rankings versus your favorite projection systems. If we’re lucky, it might point us to some things that the market or the robots identify particularly well relative to the other. When we can marry the strengths of objective, data-driven processes with the advantages of human behavior and judgment, we are better off for it.

And this is a meaty question; theoretically each method has its strengths. Average draft position is a ranking derived from the wisdom of thousands of fantasy owners. It should be valuable in this respect. But we fantasy owners are subject to our own pernicious little human biases when it comes to player evaluation. Are we better off just letting the robots do the work for us?

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Position Player Playing Time Changes: June 30, 2026

by Jon Becker

June 30, 2026

We’re officially past the halfway point of the 2026 season! Here’s the latest significant playing time changes for hitters for the past two weeks, with remaining plate appearances prorated to 78 remaining games per team, on average.

Significant Playing Time Changes, Hitters, 6/14 to 6/30

Name	Team	Positions	Old PT%	New PT %	PT Change	Old PA	New PA	PA Change	Reason
Cooper Ingle	CLE	C, LF, DH	4%	41%	37%	13	138	134	Called up to try to help banged-up offense
Jake Cronenworth	SDP	2B, SS, 1B, DH	49%	85%	36%	165	286	131	Back from IL
Kahlil Watson	CLE	RF, LF	2%	34%	32%	7	115	116	Hitting well in first taste of the big leagues
Cameron Cauley	TEX	CF, 3B, SS	4%	34%	30%	13	115	109	Called up, and could stick around thanks to versatility
Denzer Guzman	LAA	3B, SS	33%	62%	29%	111	209	105	Grabbing strong hold of 3B job
Heliot Ramos	SFG	LF, DH	60%	87%	27%	202	293	98	Back from IL
Endy Rodríguez	PIT	C, 1B	28%	53%	25%	94	179	91	Getting more and more of the reps at C
Max Kepler	ARI	LF, DH, RF	36%	57%	21%	121	192	76	Back from suspension, should be everyday guy against RHP
Graham Pauley	MIA	3B, 1B, DH	17%	37%	20%	57	125	73	Called up, took 3B from Norby
Jase Bowen	SDP	RF, LF, CF	42%	21%	-21%	142	71	-76	Has settled into bench/defense/pinch running role
Carlos Cortes	ATH	RF, DH, LF	60%	38%	-22%	202	128	-80	Losing playing time to hot-hitting Jonah Heim
Jeremiah Jackson	BAL	2B, 3B, RF	35%	12%	-23%	118	40	-83	Optioned to minors
Josh Smith	TEX	2B, SS, 3B, 1B	61%	38%	-23%	206	128	-83	Optioned to minors
Connor Norby	MIA	1B, 3B, DH	68%	45%	-23%	229	152	-83	Optioned to minors
Edgar Quero	CHW	C, DH	43%	19%	-24%	145	64	-87	Optioned to minors
Jordan Lawlar	ARI	CF, LF, DH	72%	48%	-24%	243	162	-87	Hamstring strain just when he got back from IL
Marcelo Mayer	BOS	SS, 2B	69%	41%	-28%	233	138	-102	Stress reaction in forearm
Angel Martínez	CLE	LF, RF, CF, 3B, SS, 2B	81%	50%	-31%	273	169	-113	More clarity on injury timeframe, out 4-6 weeks
Wenceel Pérez	DET	RF, CF	55%	23%	-32%	185	78	-116	Orbital fracture
Mickey Gasper	BOS	C, DH, 1B	44%	12%	-32%	148	40	-116	Optioned to minors
Marcus Semien	NYM	2B	91%	50%	-41%	307	169	-149	Grade 3 hip flexor strain, out 4-6 weeks at minimum

Pitcher Playing Time Changes: June 26, 2026

by Jon Becker

June 26, 2026

Below are the latest significant projected playing time swings for starting pitchers over the past week; we’re skipping relief pitchers this week with nothing of note to share there.

Significant Projected Playing Time Changes, SP, 6/19 to 6/26

Name	Team	Old % of Team’s Remaining GS	New % of Team’s Remaining GS	% Change	Old Remaining GS	New Remaining GS	GS Change	Reason
David Peterson	CHC	6%	15%	9%	5	12	7	Will get starts for Cubs after being bullpen/bulk guy in Queens
Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	8%	14%	6%	6	11	5	Nearing call-up as he gets fully stretched out in minors
Mike Paredes	MIN	4%	10%	6%	3	8	5	Mick Abel injury creates longer leash
JP Sears	SDP	1%	6%	5%	1	5	4	Pitched well in first start in Lucas Giolito’s stead
Ian Seymour	TBR	7%	12%	5%	6	10	4	Being part of a near-no-no helps a lot!
Reynaldo López	ATL	4%	9%	5%	3	7	4	Going three innings/60 pitches in return to rotation and will evaluate from there
Jack Leiter	TEX	17%	12%	-5%	14	10	-4	Surgery for loose bodies in ankle
Lucas Giolito	SDP	14%	8%	-6%	11	6	-5	Elbow inflammation
Adrian Houser	SFG	15%	8%	-7%	12	6	-6	Moved to bullpen
Mick Abel	MIN	12%	5%	-7%	10	4	-6	Arthroscopic elbow surgery, timeline unclear
Ryne Nelson	ARI	16%	6%	-10%	13	5	-8	Moved to 60-day IL with elbow strain

Asset Valuation Part 3: Finding Bargains Cont’d.

by Jonathan Vander Lugt

June 26, 2026

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Intro

I left you earlier in the week with a promise to dive deeper into the bargain leaderboards created by comparing projected dollar value against the expected dollar value for a pick in that draft slot. Please accept my sincerest apologies if, left without more context, you found yourself mired in the digital equivalent of a TJ Maxx aisle, paralyzed with indecision while selecting which 10 articles of clothing you want to bring to the dressing rooms.

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Starting Pitcher Potential Improvers Based on OOPSY Projections

by Corbin Young

June 24, 2026

Mandatory Credit: Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images

Ret of season projections are a great way to identify players likely to perform better moving forward. The table below shows all the starting pitchers whose rest of season OOPSY-projected ERA is 3.80 or better (as compared to a league average of 4.19) and at lest 0.20 better than what they have shown so far this year (through June 22).

We’ll likely follow this up with another version looking at potential fallers based on the OOPSY projections. Today, we’ll highlight four starting pitchers that should perform better based on their skills and stuff for the rest of the season.

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Pitcher Playing Time Changes: June 19, 2026

by Jon Becker

June 19, 2026

Last week didn’t have significant projection changes worth reporting, but we’re back this week with news aplenty. The relief pitcher table now looks different; instead of showing percent change, which can over-inflate minute projection changes in actual innings, I’m now calculating remaining innings pitched and selecting for significant swings there.

Significant Remaining Projected Playing Time Changes, SP, 6/5 to 6/19

Name	Team	Old Remaining GS %	New Remaining GS %	% Chg	Old GS	New GS	Chg	Reason
Martín Pérez	ATL	8%	14%	6%	4	8	3	Stronger hold on rotation spot with Strider out
Eury Pérez	MIA	9%	15%	6%	5	8	3	Nearing IL return
Shane Drohan	MIL	2%	8%	6%	1	4	3	Pitching like he should stick in the rotation at least a little longer, but Woodruff and Henderson loom
Ian Seymour	TBR	2%	7%	5%	1	4	3	Getting some bulk chances with Matz in bullpen
Cole Ragans	KCR	15%	10%	-5%	8	5	-3	Continued uncertainty with arm injury
Andrew Painter	PHI	16%	11%	-5%	9	6	-3	Optioned to minors
Spencer Strider	ATL	17%	7%	-10%	9	4	-5	Elbow inflammation, already on 60-day IL
Quinn Priester	MIL	10%	0%	-10%	5	0	-5	Nerve decompression surgery
Chase Dollander	COL	10%	0%	-10%	5	0	-5	UCL surgery soon
Steven Matz	TBR	15%	4%	-11%	8	2	-6	Moved to bullpen
Jack Kochanowicz	LAA	13%	0%	-13%	7	0	-7	Tommy John surgery

Significant Remaining Projected Playing Time Changes, RP, 6/5 to 6/19

Name	Team	Old Remaining RP IP	New Remaining RP IP	Chg	Reason
Joel Kuhnel	MIL	8	32	24	Has gotten hit around since joining Brewers, but big stuff uptick
Steven Matz	TBR	5	26	21	Moved to bullpen
Kyle Backhus	PHI	9	24	15	Nearing return from IL
Matt Gage	SFG	14	29	15	Back from IL
Keider Montero	DET	9	23	14	Moved to bullpen with Justin Verlander’s return impending
Reiver Sanmartin	SFG	10	23	13	Back from IL
Drew Sommers	DET	19	30	11	Quickly becoming an important part of the bullpen mix
Simeon Woods Richardson	TOR	15	26	11	Two scoreless outings since joining Blue Jays
Victor Vodnik	COL	23	33	10	Back from IL but hasn’t yet looked sharp enough for closing opportunities
Mason Barnett	ATH	22	32	10	The A’s keep spinning the closer wheel and it may have landed on Barnett for now
Tommy Nance	TOR	17	27	10	Back from IL
Cooper Criswell	SEA	30	20	-10	Won’t return until after All-Star Break
Matt Brash	SEA	34	23	-11	Won’t return until after All-Star Break
Jovani Morán	BOS	29	17	-11	Elbow inflammation
Shane Drohan	MIL	32	18	-14	Probably sticking in rotation
Brenan Hanifee	DET	30	15	-15	Optioned to minors
Brian Fitzpatrick	MIL	28	0	-28	UCL sprain, still working out course of action but return this season seems improbable
Drew Pomeranz	LAA	32	0	-32	Released

Archive for Projections

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