Archive for Projections

Pitcher Playing Time Changes: April 10, 2026

Andrew Dolphin – USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Happy Friday, and happy Pitcher Playing Time Changes day! I skipped last week because there wasn’t a whole lot going on with playing time changes yet, but unfortunately for the UCLs of Cade Horton and Zach Eflin, that’s not the case this week. Here are the most significant swings in projected playing time:

Significant Projected Playing Time Changes, SP, 4/3 to 4/10
Name Team % of Remaining GS, 4/3 % of Remaining GS, 4/10 Change Reason
Colin Rea CHC 5% 12% 7% Moved to rotation with Horton out for season
Brandon Young BAL 1% 6% 5% Eflin injury coverage
Johan Oviedo BOS 7% 2% -5% Flexor strain, out six weeks; hard to see Early/Tolle not having the rotation spot locked down by then
Joe Musgrove SDP 16% 11% -5% Still not back to throwing off a mound
Shane Smith CHW 18% 12% -6% From Opening Day starter to Triple-A
Hunter Brown HOU 19% 13% -6% Grade 2 shoulder strain, shut down “a few weeks”
Cody Ponce 폰세 TOR 8% 0% -8% Season-ending ACL surgery
Zach Eflin BAL 12% 0% -12% Season-ending UCL surgery
Cade Horton CHC 15% 0% -15% Season-ending UCL surgery

 

Significant Projected Playing Time Changes, RP, 4/3 to 4/10
Name Team % Chg. In Projected RP IP Reason
Joel Kuhnel ATH 455% (not a typo!) Called up from minors and earned save in his second game; is he the closer?
Jack Perkins ATH 75% Called up from minors
Paxton Schultz WSN 71% Activated from IL
Mitch Spence KCR 67% Called up
Brandon Eisert CHW 58% Called up
Ryan Weiss 와이스 HOU 53% Not pitching well enough for move to rotation, even with all the injuries
Tyler Samaniego BOS 50% Called up
Ron Marinaccio SDP 43% Has been key member of the bullpen so far, minimizing DFA risk
Michael Kelly ATH -31% Optioned to minors
Bailey Falter KCR -31% Elbow inflammation
Chris Murphy CHW -36% Elbow impingement
Jared Koenig MIL -39% Sprained elbow
Johan Oviedo BOS -45% Aforementioned flexor strain
José Buttó SFG -52% Blood clot in arm, out 4-6 weeks
Roddery Muñoz HOU -100% DFA’d
Joe Ross ARI -100% DFA’d
Robert Stephenson LAA -100% Season-ending elbow surgery
Joey Lucchesi LAA -100% DFA’d
Jedixson Paez CHW -100% DFA’d

Position Player Playing Time Changes: April 7, 2026

Credit: Charles LeClaire – Imagn Images

Happy Tuesday, and welcome to another edition of Position Player Playing Time Changes. As the season gets into full swing, that unfortunately means more injuries, but also the call-up of baseball’s top prospect. Here’s how remaining projections have changed in the past week:

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Pallazzo Episode w/ Sam Wirsching & Britton Allen

The Pallazzo episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guests: Sam Wirsching & Britton Allen

Draft Season Recap

  • Tout Wars
  • GDD
  • Auctioning against Ariel Cohen
  • “Mets Fireballer”
  • Using AAV in auctions for non-standard leagues

Strategy Section

  • How was this draft season different from all other draft seasons?
    • Rookies
    • Closers
    • Pocket Aces
  • Lessons learned
  • Draft regrets
  • How long into the season should you use pre-season projections?

Bold Predictions

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

Buy/Sell/Hold

Injury Update

 

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Position Player Playing Time Changes: March 31, 2026

Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

Welcome back to Position Player Playing Time Changes! Now that the season has started, I’m shifting the weekly table from displaying plate appearance changes to displaying the change in the percent of remaining playing time allocated to each player. All changes are over the past seven days, as they will be from here on out.

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Pitcher Playing Time Changes: March 27, 2026

Frank Bowen IV – The Enquirer/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

After Wednesday’s introduction to this year’s Position Player Playing Time Changes, it’s time for pitchers! Every Friday, these roundups will work much the same as the position player ones, except I’ll split out starters and relievers. As with position players, this week’s compares changes since March 1, and next week I’ll transition to looking at week-to-week changes. Away we go:

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Position Player Playing Time Changes: March 25, 2026

Junfu Han – USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Welcome to the first Position Player Playing Time Changes roundup of 2026! Normally, you can expect this to hit RotoGraphs on Tuesday afternoons, but we’re publishing here on Wednesday since there’s much more clarity with Opening Day rosters now than there was 24 hours ago. As a reminder for how this works, I use our database of playing time projections, managed by RosterResource wizard Jason Martin 마틴ez, to query significant changes over a certain period of time. Mostly, that’ll be over a weeklong period — between roundups — but I’m using March 1 as the cutoff for this first one. As for what qualifies as significant, this is every change of at least 10% (70 plate appearances) in either direction in that time period. So this’ll be a longer list than usual, chock-full of info:

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Starting Pitcher Episode w/ Nick Pollack

The Starting Pitcher episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Nick Pollack

Strategy Section

  • Which pitcher types should be emphasized on your fantasy rosters?
  • What statistics are most helpful in evaluating pitchers?
  • Which pitchers are worth watching this year in spring training?
  • How will the World Baseball Classic affect pitchers this season?
  • Which pitchers are throwing new pitches or changing pitch mixes this year?
  • Who are some potential breakout pitchers for 2026?
  • Expectations for Tatsuya Imai
  • Starting Pitchers
    • General player pool observations
    • Better to have an ace, or 2-3 1A starting pitchers?

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

ATC Undervalued Starting Pitchers

Deep league starting pitchers

Injury Update

 

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2026 Projection Showdown: THE BAT X vs Steamer ERA Forecasts

Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

For the first time, we can now compare THE BAT X ERA forecasts to other projection systems. That’s because Christmas just arrived early — the pitcher version of THE BAT X has finally been released and is now available on our player pages. A shoutout goes to my friend Derek Carty for what I presume was a massive undertaking in developing the pitching side of his Statcast-driven THE BAT X model. Let’s all be selfishly thankful that he hasn’t been scooped up by a Major League team yet, allowing his analysis and projections to remain accessible.

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Outfield Episode w/ Justin Mason

The Outfield episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Justin Mason

Strategy Section

  • Diversification
    • Should you diversify your player shares?
      • At the top? In the middle? At the bottom?
  • Kentucky Derby Selection (KDS)
    • What is KDS?
    • How should you set your KDS in 2026?
  • Outfielders
    • General player pool observations
    • Which statistics should you look to draft from the OF position?
    • Differences between 3 OF leagues and 5 OF leagues

ATC Undervalued Outfielders

Injury Update

 

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2026 Projection Showdown: THE BAT X vs Steamer wOBA Forecasts

Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

In a just released study, THE BAT X and Steamer were the two best original projection systems last year that were reviewed by FantasyPros and available on this very site. So let’s compare their individual hitter wOBA forecasts and discuss the hitters each is most optimistic on versus the other. Since most projection systems tend to produce similar results, especially the aggregates, it’s always fun to learn about the outliers in the original systems, as they could be the product of factors missed by the other systems or overvalued that leads to inaccurate forecasts.

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