Archive for Projections

After a detour writing a couple articles with cheeky little bits and also a much more extended effort to develop a model for dynasty rankings, I wanted to return more explicitly to my bread and butter: the Asset Valuation series. After my first teaser article, my next three in this series showed how scoring settings can affect player value, and how you can exploit knowledge about these dynamics for your gain.

Those analyses, though, held one thing constant: the value of draft picks. To get those points across, I assumed a standard 12-team redraft setting, and flexed the value of players based on scoring scheme. Here, I’m doing the opposite: I’m messing with the timeline draft pool while keeping scoring scheme constant to show you how the value of a draft pick itself can change based on league size, keepers, and whether you use projections or actual realized dollar value.

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Sitting here in early September, with papery leaves beginning to find themselves underfoot and with the A’s and Angels getting ready for next season, things really do feel pretty normal. 

There have certainly been some surprises, like the oddly Tucker-shaped hole in the Dodgers’ lineup, but for the most part, it’s been a season that has largely matched our expectations.  

But there was a time, not all that long ago, when many of us were panicking. When our early round picks were faltering and our “sure thing” sleepers were seemingly still sleeping. Let’s call this time by a cute and breezy name, something deceivingly blissful and carefree like “May.”

In this article, I’ll look back at some of the hitters whose starts were so rough that fantasy managers may have overlooked them as they have rebounded this summer and may still undervalue them heading into next year’s drafts.

I want you to be sure to look at these players favorably when doing your draft prep. If you really trust me, maybe even bookmark this page to come back to during draft time, so that you don’t take one look at Rafael Devers and get a sour unripe picked-in-April-but-ripe-in-August orange taste in your mouth (I know this isn’t the citrus timeline, please forgive me). 

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Below are the latest in significant position player playing time changes for the last two weeks as we head into the homestretch of the season:

We’ve reached the home stretch of the season after the trade deadline, and there’ve been plenty of shifts in projected playing time with players switching teams. For today’s roundup, I’ll focus only on starting pitchers, since their changes were much more notable.

All models are wrong, but some are useful.

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I’m back from a post-trade deadline vacation (I highly recommend Montréal, by the way!) and there are a whole slew of playing time changes for position players to run through. Let’s get to the table:

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The last two weeks have brought plenty of projected playing time changes for hitters, and there should be even more next week after the trade deadline, with plenty of plate appearances opening up for selling teams. Here’s the latest.

Below are the latest notable playing time projection changes for pitchers for the last two weeks, starting with starters and moving onto relievers in the second table.

Following on from the hitters chart, we now look at how pitchers have performed so far this year against their OOPSY rest-of-season (RoS) projections.

Continuing with the framework of the hitters’ piece, this will first look at those with projected ERA rises, then at those with projected ERA drops. Just as we identified BABIP and ISO as the major determining factors in the hitters’ RoS outlooks, we will identify a similar through line here: for pitchers, it is largely strand rate.

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With over half of the 2026 season in the books, it’s a good a time to update OOPSY’s Top 100 prospects list, this time with a fantasy spin.

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