Archive for Projections

Position Player Playing Time Changes: March 31, 2026

Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

Welcome back to Position Player Playing Time Changes! Now that the season has started, I’m shifting the weekly table from displaying plate appearance changes to displaying the change in the percent of remaining playing time allocated to each player. All changes are over the past seven days, as they will be from here on out.

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Pitcher Playing Time Changes: March 27, 2026

Frank Bowen IV – The Enquirer/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

After Wednesday’s introduction to this year’s Position Player Playing Time Changes, it’s time for pitchers! Every Friday, these roundups will work much the same as the position player ones, except I’ll split out starters and relievers. As with position players, this week’s compares changes since March 1, and next week I’ll transition to looking at week-to-week changes. Away we go:

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Position Player Playing Time Changes: March 25, 2026

Junfu Han – USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Welcome to the first Position Player Playing Time Changes roundup of 2026! Normally, you can expect this to hit RotoGraphs on Tuesday afternoons, but we’re publishing here on Wednesday since there’s much more clarity with Opening Day rosters now than there was 24 hours ago. As a reminder for how this works, I use our database of playing time projections, managed by RosterResource wizard Jason Martin 마틴ez, to query significant changes over a certain period of time. Mostly, that’ll be over a weeklong period — between roundups — but I’m using March 1 as the cutoff for this first one. As for what qualifies as significant, this is every change of at least 10% (70 plate appearances) in either direction in that time period. So this’ll be a longer list than usual, chock-full of info:

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Starting Pitcher Episode w/ Nick Pollack

The Starting Pitcher episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Nick Pollack

Strategy Section

  • Which pitcher types should be emphasized on your fantasy rosters?
  • What statistics are most helpful in evaluating pitchers?
  • Which pitchers are worth watching this year in spring training?
  • How will the World Baseball Classic affect pitchers this season?
  • Which pitchers are throwing new pitches or changing pitch mixes this year?
  • Who are some potential breakout pitchers for 2026?
  • Expectations for Tatsuya Imai
  • Starting Pitchers
    • General player pool observations
    • Better to have an ace, or 2-3 1A starting pitchers?

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

ATC Undervalued Starting Pitchers

Deep league starting pitchers

Injury Update

 

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2026 Projection Showdown: THE BAT X vs Steamer ERA Forecasts

Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

For the first time, we can now compare THE BAT X ERA forecasts to other projection systems. That’s because Christmas just arrived early — the pitcher version of THE BAT X has finally been released and is now available on our player pages. A shoutout goes to my friend Derek Carty for what I presume was a massive undertaking in developing the pitching side of his Statcast-driven THE BAT X model. Let’s all be selfishly thankful that he hasn’t been scooped up by a Major League team yet, allowing his analysis and projections to remain accessible.

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Outfield Episode w/ Justin Mason

The Outfield episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Justin Mason

Strategy Section

  • Diversification
    • Should you diversify your player shares?
      • At the top? In the middle? At the bottom?
  • Kentucky Derby Selection (KDS)
    • What is KDS?
    • How should you set your KDS in 2026?
  • Outfielders
    • General player pool observations
    • Which statistics should you look to draft from the OF position?
    • Differences between 3 OF leagues and 5 OF leagues

ATC Undervalued Outfielders

Injury Update

 

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2026 Projection Showdown: THE BAT X vs Steamer wOBA Forecasts

Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

In a just released study, THE BAT X and Steamer were the two best original projection systems last year that were reviewed by FantasyPros and available on this very site. So let’s compare their individual hitter wOBA forecasts and discuss the hitters each is most optimistic on versus the other. Since most projection systems tend to produce similar results, especially the aggregates, it’s always fun to learn about the outliers in the original systems, as they could be the product of factors missed by the other systems or overvalued that leads to inaccurate forecasts.

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Middle Infield Episode w/ Chris Towers

The Middle Infield episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Chris Towers

Strategy Section

  • League format differences
    • How would your draft strategy change between?
      • Rotisserie (Roto) vs. HTH Points vs. HTH Categories
      • Waiver wire leagues vs. non-waiver wire (Draft Champions / Draft & Hold) leagues
      • Having IL slots vs. no IL slots
      • Large bench vs. small bench
      • Trading vs. non-trading leagues
      • Daily lineups vs. weekly lineups
  • Middle Infielders
    • General player pool observations
    • Jacob Wilson as a fantasy starting shortstop
    • Which statistics should you look to draft from the MI position?

ATC Undervalued Middle Infielders

Injury Update

 

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Corner Infield Episode w/ Mike Gianella

The Corner Infield episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Mike Gianella

Strategy Section

  • Multi-positional eligible players
    • Importance & use
    • Should you make a “do not draft” list?
    • Target multi-positional players? Or is it simply a tie-breaker?
    • How to value players who are expected to gain additional positional eligibility early on in the season?
  • Colorado Rockies nostalgia
  • Shallow vs. Deep positions
    • What is the weakest position this draft season?
  • Narrow vs. Wide positions
  • Corner Infielders
    • General player pool observations
    • Which statistics should you look to draft from the CI position?

ATC Undervalued Corner Infielders

Injury Update

 

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Player Analysis Episode w/ Lance Brozdowski

The Player Analysis episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Lance Brozdowski

Personal History

  • The future of Statcast broadcasts

Recent News

  • Recent free agent signings
  • Will we see more short term / with opt outs / high AAV contracts going forward?

ATC Projections

  • Accounting for fluke seasons
  • Making adjustments to the projections
  • Using the ATC Projections

Player Analysis

  • Should we pay attention to players who “went to driveline?”
  • Potential rookie pitcher breakouts
  • Changes in pitchers’ pitch mix
    • Trends for 2026
    • The future of projections
    • Will pitchers focus on their best pitch, or spread around the mix more?
  • Using Stuff+
  • Using Bat speed
    • Minors vs. Majors

 

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