Category: Projections

Pitcher Playing Time Changes: July 24, 2026

by Jon Becker

July 24, 2026

Below are the latest notable playing time projection changes for pitchers for the last two weeks, starting with starters and moving onto relievers in the second table.

Significant Remaining Playing Time Changes, SP, 7/10 to 7/24

Name	Team	Old % of Team’s Remaining GS	New % of Team’s Remaining GS	Change	Old Remaining GS	New Remaining GS	Change	Reason
Zac Thornton	NYM	4%	13%	9%	2	8	6	Looking like a rotation mainstay
Randy Dobnak	KCR	4%	12%	8%	2	7	5	Has taken SP5 and run with it
Ronel Blanco	HOU	4%	11%	7%	2	7	5	Back from Tommy John rehab
JP Sears	SDP	7%	13%	6%	4	8	4	Vásquez in bullpen should have him holding onto his spot
Gabriel Hughes	COL	3%	9%	6%	2	5	3	Has looked good in his first few starts
Jacob Lopez	ATH	5%	10%	5%	3	6	3	Back to rotation with J.T. Ginn out for a bit with a blister
Jack Perkins	ATH	10%	15%	5%	6	9	3	Hasn’t been particularly good but will hold onto spot with Ginn out
Carson Whisenhunt	SFG	5%	10%	5%	3	6	3	Expected to replace Trevor McDonald (elbow strain) in rotation
Mick Abel	MIN	5%	0%	-5%	3	0	-3	Unlikely to make it back this year
Randy Vásquez	SDP	14%	8%	-6%	8	5	-3	Has worked out of bullpen since IL activation
Hurston Waldrep	ATL	10%	4%	-6%	6	2	-4	Struggling with command since option to the minors
Brandon Woodruff	MIL	6%	0%	-6%	4	0	-4	Season-ending shoulder capsule surgery
Garrett Crochet	BOS	8%	2%	-6%	5	1	-4	Timeline for a return still very unclear if he’s back at all this year
Shohei Ohtani	LAD	15%	9%	-6%	9	5	-4	Knee injury, Dodgers will certainly slow-play and think about October
Tanner Gordon	COL	15%	8%	-7%	9	5	-4	Moved to bullpen
Kodai Senga	NYM	10%	3%	-7%	6	2	-4	Thornton’s emergence and his own struggles make a rotation return highly unlikely
Zac Gallen	ARI	18%	8%	-10%	11	5	-6	Elbow inflammation
Stephen Kolek	KCR	17%	2%	-15%	10	1	-9	Flexor strain
Aaron Civale	CHC	17%	1%	-16%	10	1	-9	Working out of bullpen since acquisition from A’s

Significant Remaining Playing Time Changes, RP, 7/10 to 7/24

Name	Team	Old Remaining RP IP	New Remaining RP IP	Change	Reason
Alex McFarlane	PHI	5	19	14	Welcome to the big leagues!
Max Kranick	WSN	7	20	13	Back from the IL as the Nationals try to find any reliever with any semblance of consistency
Bennett Sousa	HOU	15	22	7	Back from the IL
Hayden Wesneski	HOU	6	13	7	Nearing IL return, bullpen looks like easiest fit right now
Hoby Milner	CHC	8	15	7	Should be back fairly soon from appendectomy
Kai-Wei Teng	HOU	14	20	6	Back from the IL and pitching out of the bullpen
DL Hall	MIL	13	18	5	Nearing IL return
Keegan Akin	BAL	11	0	-11	Season-ending elbow surgery
Brad Keller	PHI	24	0	-24	Season-ending elbow surgery

First-Half ERA vs OOPSY’s Rest-of-Season Projections

by Jack Martin

July 20, 2026

Following on from the hitters chart, we now look at how pitchers have performed so far this year against their OOPSY rest-of-season (RoS) projections.

Continuing with the framework of the hitters’ piece, this will first look at those with projected ERA rises, then at those with projected ERA drops. Just as we identified BABIP and ISO as the major determining factors in the hitters’ RoS outlooks, we will identify a similar through line here: for pitchers, it is largely strand rate.

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OOPSY 2026 Midseason Top 100 Prospects

by Jordan Rosenblum

July 17, 2026

Credit: © William Bretzger-Delaware News Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

With over half of the 2026 season in the books, it’s a good a time to update OOPSY’s Top 100 prospects list, this time with a fantasy spin.

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Position Player Playing Time Changes: July 14, 2026

by Jon Becker

July 14, 2026

We’ve reached the not-actually-halfway-but-people-call-it-that-because-of-the-All-Star-Break point of the season! Here are notable projected position player playing time changes for the last two weeks as we enter the second “half” on Thursday.

Significant Playing Time Changes, Hitters, 6/30 to 7/14

Name	Team	Position	Old PT %	New PT %	PT Change	Old PA	New PA	PA Change	Reason
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer	ATH	2B, SS, 3B	14%	58%	44%	40	165	125	Litany of injuries open more playing time, plus he’s hitting well
Ryan Jeffers	MIN	C, DH	34%	73%	39%	97	208	111	Back from the IL
Esmerlyn Valdez	PIT	RF, DH, LF	27%	65%	38%	77	185	108	The Magician is a key cog in the lineup now
LaMonte Wade Jr.	HOU	LF, RF, 1B	14%	46%	32%	40	131	91	Returned from IL and starting every day against RHP
Luis Lara	MIL	RF, CF	3%	35%	32%	9	100	91	Called up to the majors and deserves to play semi-regularly, but OF is crowded
Tim Tawa	ARI	1B, 2B, CF, LF	8%	39%	31%	23	111	88	Getting a crack at 1B with Smith DFA’d
Munetaka Murakami	CHW	1B, DH	65%	91%	26%	185	260	74	Back from the IL
Jim Jarvis	ATL	SS, 3B, 2B	3%	28%	25%	9	80	71	Starting SS with Kim injured
Ryan Waldschmidt	ARI	CF, LF	23%	48%	25%	66	137	71	With Tawa getting 1B time, more OF time open
Ke’Bryan Hayes	CIN	3B	25%	48%	23%	71	137	66	Back from the IL
Alan Roden	MIN	RF, LF, DH	25%	47%	22%	71	134	63	Called up to replace Byron Buxton on the roster
Jonah Heim	ATH	C, DH, 1B	30%	50%	20%	86	143	57	Will do some filling in at 1B with Kurtz out
Ronald Acuña Jr.	ATL	RF, DH	67%	87%	20%	191	248	57	Nearing IL return
Kahlil Watson	CLE	LF, RF, CF, DH	34%	54%	20%	97	154	57	Ingle’s option makes him a surefire regular for now
Colby Thomas	ATH	RF, LF, CF	25%	45%	20%	71	128	57	Gelof injury makes him a more regular OF
Victor Caratini	MIN	C, DH, 1B	72%	52%	-20%	205	148	-57	Jeffers return cuts into C time
Samad Taylor	SDP	LF, CF, RF, 2B	59%	39%	-20%	168	111	-57	Oblique strain, he hopes mild
Nick Kurtz	ATH	1B	94%	72%	-22%	268	205	-63	Thumb sprain, timeline unclear but hopefully won’t be too long
Mark Vientos	NYM	1B, DH, 3B	54%	30%	-24%	154	86	-68	Fractured hand
Joey Loperfido	HOU	LF, CF, RF	52%	27%	-25%	148	77	-71	Optioned to minors
Ha-seong Kim	ATL	SS	70%	44%	-26%	200	125	-74	Finger inflammation; on rehab assignment but it’s unclear how much PT will be available to him when back
Cooper Ingle	CLE	LF, DH, C	41%	14%	-27%	117	40	-77	Optioned to minors
Kameron Misner	KCR	CF	33%	5%	-28%	94	14	-80	Optioned to minors
Matt Chapman	SFG	3B	95%	66%	-29%	271	188	-83	Strained abdominal muscle
Max Muncy	ATH	3B, SS, 2B	65%	16%	-49%	185	46	-140	Optioned to minors
Pavin Smith	ARI	1B, DH, RF	52%	1%	-51%	148	3	-145	DFA’d
Konnor Griffin	PIT	SS, DH	89%	33%	-56%	254	94	-160	Finger injury will keep him out ~2 months

Simplified Analysis: OPS and xFIP

by Jeff Zimmerman

July 10, 2026

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Over the years, I’ve gone to the cutting edge of stats to find advantages. I can go into a deep analysis on any player’s fantasy value, but there isn’t always time to analyze each player’s profile. For a shortcut, I use OPS to evaluate hitters and xFIP and botERA for pitchers. They give me a good predictive look, especially in a small sample. Besides those stats, I might make a cursory look at BABIP and Contact% for hitters and K%-BB% for pitchers.

Note: Recent plate appearances could be the #1 stat to follow for hitters, but I’m going to focus on production stats.

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Humanity vs. the Robots: Round 2

by Jonathan Vander Lugt

July 10, 2026

Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Earlier this week when I detailed what is sure to be the most important human versus machine debate our society will face, I found that the projection robots very narrowly edge the ADP market when it comes to predicting fantasy performance. That analysis, though, was based on a half-season of 2026 data with a hint that there might be more to come.

This is that follow-up. My goal here was to conduct a broader analysis on more data to see if the conclusions held up, and it turns out that they did.

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Pitcher Playing Time Changes: July 10, 2026

by Jon Becker

July 10, 2026

After a week off for the holiday, I’m back with notable pitcher playing time changes for the last two weeks for starters and relievers. Here are the tables:

Significant Remaining Projected Playing Time Changes, SP, 6/26 to 7/10

Name	Team	Old % of Team’s Remaining GS	New % of Team’s Remaining GS	% Change	Old Remaining GS	New Remaining GS	GS Change	Reason
Jake Bennett	BOS	5%	13%	8%	4	9	5	Holding onto Early’s rotation spot
Luinder Avila	KCR	7%	13%	6%	5	9	4	Ragans/Bubic injuries solidify his spot
Hunter Greene	CIN	13%	18%	5%	9	13	4	Back from the IL
Cole Ragans	KCR	6%	0%	-6%	4	0	-4	UCL surgery might wipe out 2027 too
Kris Bubic	KCR	14%	8%	-6%	10	6	-4	Rehab assignment put on hold
Cristian Javier	HOU	14%	8%	-6%	10	6	-4	Working out of the bullpen for now
Chris Bassitt	BAL	15%	9%	-6%	11	6	-5	Back surgery pushes return back
Connelly Early	BOS	15%	8%	-7%	11	6	-5	Elbow inflammation
Rhett Lowder	CIN	14%	7%	-7%	10	5	-5	Moved to bullpen, is Triple-A next?
Patrick Corbin	TOR	13%	5%	-8%	9	4	-5	Moved to bullpen
Carlos Rodón	NYY	19%	10%	-9%	13	7	-6	Elbow inflammation
Brandon Woodruff	MIL	16%	6%	-10%	11	4	-7	New shoulder injury, return this season unclear

Significant Remaining Projected Playing Time Changes, RP, 6/26 to 7/10

Name	Team	Old Remaining RP IP	New Remaining RP IP	Chg	Reason
Jordan Romano	COL	10	34	24	Has taken over as closer(!) since contract selected from minors
Jason Foley	SFG	12	30	18	Nearing IL return
Jovani Morán	BOS	18	29	12	Back from IL and important in the middle innings
Wilber Dotel	PIT	17	28	11	Nearing IL return
Mark Leiter Jr.	ATH	23	33	10	Back from IL and could quickly move up the trust tree in that mess of a bullpen
Austin Warren	NYM	31	9	-22	Strained forearm
Jalen Beeks	TEX	27	0	-27	Season-ending flexor tendon surgery
Anthony Banda	MIN	34	0	-34	Season-ending lat surgery

Humanity vs. the Robots: Who Will Win?

by Jonathan Vander Lugt

July 6, 2026

Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

While writing my recent articles about how to use projections to find undervalued players based on market ADPs, I was struck by a follow-up question: when ranking players, which is better – ADP, or projections?

As we strive to value players more objectively, probing this question is valuable. It will help calibrate how much weight to assign consensus rankings versus your favorite projection systems. If we’re lucky, it might point us to some things that the market or the robots identify particularly well relative to the other. When we can marry the strengths of objective, data-driven processes with the advantages of human behavior and judgment, we are better off for it.

And this is a meaty question; theoretically each method has its strengths. Average draft position is a ranking derived from the wisdom of thousands of fantasy owners. It should be valuable in this respect. But we fantasy owners are subject to our own pernicious little human biases when it comes to player evaluation. Are we better off just letting the robots do the work for us?

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Position Player Playing Time Changes: June 30, 2026

by Jon Becker

June 30, 2026

We’re officially past the halfway point of the 2026 season! Here’s the latest significant playing time changes for hitters for the past two weeks, with remaining plate appearances prorated to 78 remaining games per team, on average.

Significant Playing Time Changes, Hitters, 6/14 to 6/30

Name	Team	Positions	Old PT%	New PT %	PT Change	Old PA	New PA	PA Change	Reason
Cooper Ingle	CLE	C, LF, DH	4%	41%	37%	13	138	134	Called up to try to help banged-up offense
Jake Cronenworth	SDP	2B, SS, 1B, DH	49%	85%	36%	165	286	131	Back from IL
Kahlil Watson	CLE	RF, LF	2%	34%	32%	7	115	116	Hitting well in first taste of the big leagues
Cameron Cauley	TEX	CF, 3B, SS	4%	34%	30%	13	115	109	Called up, and could stick around thanks to versatility
Denzer Guzman	LAA	3B, SS	33%	62%	29%	111	209	105	Grabbing strong hold of 3B job
Heliot Ramos	SFG	LF, DH	60%	87%	27%	202	293	98	Back from IL
Endy Rodríguez	PIT	C, 1B	28%	53%	25%	94	179	91	Getting more and more of the reps at C
Max Kepler	ARI	LF, DH, RF	36%	57%	21%	121	192	76	Back from suspension, should be everyday guy against RHP
Graham Pauley	MIA	3B, 1B, DH	17%	37%	20%	57	125	73	Called up, took 3B from Norby
Jase Bowen	SDP	RF, LF, CF	42%	21%	-21%	142	71	-76	Has settled into bench/defense/pinch running role
Carlos Cortes	ATH	RF, DH, LF	60%	38%	-22%	202	128	-80	Losing playing time to hot-hitting Jonah Heim
Jeremiah Jackson	BAL	2B, 3B, RF	35%	12%	-23%	118	40	-83	Optioned to minors
Josh Smith	TEX	2B, SS, 3B, 1B	61%	38%	-23%	206	128	-83	Optioned to minors
Connor Norby	MIA	1B, 3B, DH	68%	45%	-23%	229	152	-83	Optioned to minors
Edgar Quero	CHW	C, DH	43%	19%	-24%	145	64	-87	Optioned to minors
Jordan Lawlar	ARI	CF, LF, DH	72%	48%	-24%	243	162	-87	Hamstring strain just when he got back from IL
Marcelo Mayer	BOS	SS, 2B	69%	41%	-28%	233	138	-102	Stress reaction in forearm
Angel Martínez	CLE	LF, RF, CF, 3B, SS, 2B	81%	50%	-31%	273	169	-113	More clarity on injury timeframe, out 4-6 weeks
Wenceel Pérez	DET	RF, CF	55%	23%	-32%	185	78	-116	Orbital fracture
Mickey Gasper	BOS	C, DH, 1B	44%	12%	-32%	148	40	-116	Optioned to minors
Marcus Semien	NYM	2B	91%	50%	-41%	307	169	-149	Grade 3 hip flexor strain, out 4-6 weeks at minimum

Pitcher Playing Time Changes: June 26, 2026

by Jon Becker

June 26, 2026

Below are the latest significant projected playing time swings for starting pitchers over the past week; we’re skipping relief pitchers this week with nothing of note to share there.

Significant Projected Playing Time Changes, SP, 6/19 to 6/26

Name	Team	Old % of Team’s Remaining GS	New % of Team’s Remaining GS	% Change	Old Remaining GS	New Remaining GS	GS Change	Reason
David Peterson	CHC	6%	15%	9%	5	12	7	Will get starts for Cubs after being bullpen/bulk guy in Queens
Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	8%	14%	6%	6	11	5	Nearing call-up as he gets fully stretched out in minors
Mike Paredes	MIN	4%	10%	6%	3	8	5	Mick Abel injury creates longer leash
JP Sears	SDP	1%	6%	5%	1	5	4	Pitched well in first start in Lucas Giolito’s stead
Ian Seymour	TBR	7%	12%	5%	6	10	4	Being part of a near-no-no helps a lot!
Reynaldo López	ATL	4%	9%	5%	3	7	4	Going three innings/60 pitches in return to rotation and will evaluate from there
Jack Leiter	TEX	17%	12%	-5%	14	10	-4	Surgery for loose bodies in ankle
Lucas Giolito	SDP	14%	8%	-6%	11	6	-5	Elbow inflammation
Adrian Houser	SFG	15%	8%	-7%	12	6	-6	Moved to bullpen
Mick Abel	MIN	12%	5%	-7%	10	4	-6	Arthroscopic elbow surgery, timeline unclear
Ryne Nelson	ARI	16%	6%	-10%	13	5	-8	Moved to 60-day IL with elbow strain

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