Pitcher Spotlight: Chad Kuhl May Have Figured It Out

I’m taking a chance today, posting this piece just an hour before Chad Kuhl takes the hill against the Brewers. Yesterday’s game was postponed, forcing me to take a leap of faith today, but I know what I see and I’m going to talk about it anyway.

We’ve been waiting for Kuhl to have consistent fantasy relevancy since his call-up in 2016, but it’s been a laborious two years. Back-to-back seasons with a WHIP over 1.30 and an ERA well north of 4.00 have done little to inspire hope, as his strikeout rate has hovered 20%.

However, Kuhl’s last four starts have been successful and I could be more than just a blip on the radar. I actually think it’s going to stick.

That’s a table comparing Kuhl’s first ten starts of 2018 to his last four, including a bit of a pitch mix adjustment as Kuhl is suddenly throwing his slide piece over 30% of the time as he pulls back from his fastball.

Why is this important? Because Kuhl’s slider is incredible and his fastball is terrible.

Those are sliders from his most recent start against the Reds, where he earned 10 whiffs on 29 sliders thrown – good for a 34% whiff rate. Phenomenal.

In Kuhl’s last four starts, he’s featured the pitch over 30% of the time thrice, and hinted at a 35% rate. This should excite you. Kuhl is finally using his best pitch more often – frequently at more than double the rate! – and has had success as a result. (Note: One start featured 25.2% curveballs and just 16.2% sliders, which worked and still fits the “use more breaking balls” shift in approach, but specifically diminishes the overall slider usage rates.)

I have a term called “Money Pitches” that detail a special offering in a pitcher’s arsenal. If they have one fantastic pitch they can dominate with, as long as the rest of their repertoire holds their weight, a money pitch gives a pitcher the ability to cruise through any outing. The terms to define a money pitch is a 40%+ O-Swing (gets chases off the plate), a 40%+ Zone rate (confidence to earn a strike), and a 15%+ whiff rate (misses bats often). Here are the numbers for Kuhl’s slider:

It doesn’t just meet the definition, it blows it out of the water. Kuhl can use the pitch in any context and it earns him strikes, while batters struggle to punish it. It’s cash money and it shouldn’t surprise you that I’m excited to see it get a much bigger spotlight in Kuhl’s approach.

And why not, here’s another collection of Kuhl sliders, this time at a different camera angle as he went to Wrigley on June 8th:

I should make something clear. Even if Kuhl hypothetically throws his slider over 40% of the time moving forward, I still wouldn’t suggest that Kuhl has Top 30 upside. While he features a solid knuckle-curveball, his primary fastball – despite its fantastic 95mph velocity – is incredibly hittable and is allowing a .286 BAA with eight longballs on the year. While lowering its usage 10 points is a great step in the right direction, even throwing it just 40% of the time will prevent him from reaching stardom. It caps his ceiling until he figures out how to fix it.

There is a fourth pitch in Kuhl’s repertoire, a changeup, but we really should not talk about. Let me direct you to a GIF that will probably confuse you after reading the previous sentence:

You just saw whiffs generated by Kuhl’s changeup. You also just saw the only four whiffs Kuhl has induced across all 110 thrown this season. Those doing quick maths, that’s a sub 4.0% whiff rate. To go along with that number is a .421 BAA, a 13% O-swing, a 39% zone rate adding up to one of the worst pitches in the majors (And Ryan Braun whiffed twice!). I wonder if Kuhl makes an audible groan when Francisco Cervelli wiggles his fingers.

Still, even with questionable offerings to compliment his slider, we’ve seen pitchers like Matt Shoemaker, Lance McCullers, and even a brief moment of Nathan Karns last season embrace their best pitch and have a flurry of success. Paired with a solid curveball, Kuhl could still be productive even with a detrimental heater. Who knows, maybe that sinker turns into a consistently elevated four-seamer and suddenly Kuhl is the belle of the ball.

Final Thoughts

Here’s something else to consider. There has been plenty of discussion surrounding Jameson Taillon‘s inclusion of a slider into his repertoire, a pitch he’s thrown over 25% since its inception on May 27th. The very next day was the first start of the season where Kuhl threw over 30% sliders, one start after featuring the pitch just 10.3% of the time. Maybe Taillon’s approach rubbed off on Kuhl. Maybe there was a decision made internally by the Pirates. Maybe they saw Gerrit Cole’s success in Houston and rethought their strategies. Regardless of the reasoning, it makes me more inclined to believe that we’ll continue seeing this trend from Kuhl, opening the door for a productive second half.

In 12-teamers, I would consider Kuhl as he’s owned in fewer than 20% of leagues and deeper leagues won’t find a better option on their wires. Don’t expect a massive breakout, but there’s a chance for Top 60 production here and that’s more than we expected.