Archive for Pitcher Spotlight

Tyson Ross has his third start of the season tonight against the San Francisco Giants and given his 3.1% ownership rate in ESPN leagues, it doesn’t look like many of you care.

I think you should care.

This article won’t be a declaration of the golden days returning. That would be a foolish hyperbole after Ross has only taken the ball twice in 2018 and is still gathering his bearings from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome that took him out of the game for 16 months. Not to mention that his 5.25 ERA and 18.8% strikeout rate thus far don’t scream “fixed.”

You can smell a catch. Why would I waste my time on this if there wasn’t something interesting? Something that makes me say “wait a second” or “there might be something here.” It’s not as transparent as other starters have been in the past, but let me show you what I’ve seen and I think you’ll understand what we’re all doing here.

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We have these arms every year. The pitchers surprising us in the first week of the season who we maybe heard once or twice among the sea of information during the preseason but never really considered as a possible candidate for our opening day rosters. Who is this guy? Is he worth the add? Can he do this again? What do I do?!

Tyler Mahle is just that for plenty of owners after dazzling with a 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hit, 2 BBs, 7 Ks outing on Monday afternoon, even becoming an add in some 12-team leagues. It’s not easy to dominate a Cubs lineup, even if they set a record for team strikeouts over the opening weekend, and with Mahle becoming an intriguing enigma, I wanted to take a closer look.

Here’s what I saw from Tyler Mahle in his 2018 debut:

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Today I’ll be talking about the holy one, the pitcher with arguably the filthiest repertoire, the most dominating stuff, the man who should win every single at-bat.

And I’m going tell you why that probably isn’t going to happen. At least not yet.

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You have your guys. The ones you’ve followed through the years, have watched struggle and defended at each stumble, the ones you feel are this close to showing the world what you know is inside them.

Mike Clevinger is one of my guys.

It’s been a journey since his 2016 MLB debut, a game where he allowed 4 ER to the Reds in 5.1 innings. Many saw a young arm that didn’t deserve a second glance on the wire. I saw a 13.2% whiff rate, a near 95mph fastball velocity, and a trio of strong secondary pitches. I was hooked.

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By most metrics, Jeff Samardzija had himself a career year in 2017. His strikeout rate hinted a 25% clip, he featured a minuscule 3.8% walk rate, and his 1.14 WHIP was the second best mark of his career.

What did have to show for it? An obtuse 4.42 ERA that seems unjust for such strong peripherals, fueled by a ghastly 1.30 HR/9 mark and a 13.8% HR/FB rate.

Can Samardzija lower his home run rate? If he does, can we assume that Samardzija will keep near the same strikeout and walk rates and hint at his 3.63 SIERA? Was there something in his approach that suggested he should allow six extra tates or should we just cough it up to “juiced balls” and the state of the game?

This is where it gets fun.

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Last week I wanted to discuss the chance that Kyle Gibson becomes fantasy relevant in 2018 despite going undrafted everywhere and destined for your waiver wire. In the same light, it’s time to talk about Joe Biagini, the Toronto Blue Jays arm that seems oh-so-close to becoming a stable choice across the board.

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There are times I write about pitchers that I truly believe in. The ones that seem destined to break through the filter of mediocrity and into the spotlight of the masses. Kyle Gibson is not one of these pitchers.

But he did do something in 2017 that I think you should know about. It could be a gamechanger, it could be nothing, but it was at least something, and let’s be honest, that’s a lot more than we expected when talking about career 4.70 ERA and 16.0% strikeout rate Kyle Gibson.

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Do you believe in Trevor Bauer? The Cleveland pitcher has been a polarizing arm since he’s stepped onto a major league field, never holding an ERA under 4.00 across four seasons of 25+ starts paired with a WHIP above 1.30, but Bauer continues to raise eyebrows with 20%+ strikeout rates and stretches where he flashes Top 20 SP ability. We all want him to succeed, but it seems everyone has a story behind why they simply can’t back him.

I’m not here to preach 2018 Bauer as the potential Top 20 SP that was promised nor that his previous struggles should demote him to the bottom of your draft boards. I’m here to tell you that Bauer may have grown in 2017 more than you realize. Read the rest of this entry »

This offseason, I’m taking the time to study the arms that deserve a little bit of extra attention. Sure, every starter should get a bit more than your standard gloss over, but you know Max Scherzer is a top tier starter and you’re aware that Andrew Cashner will not come close to repeating his 3.40 ERA. I can also imagine that Jose Quintana will be getting this standard treatment by many. You’re going to have some that consider him a stable arm and grab him as a #2 SP and you have others – myself included – that treat him as someone who will wait to see him fall before considering him for your staff.

But that was the old me. Quintana made a significant tweak in his approach this season and I didn’t know any better.

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I didn’t care for Collin McHugh for the first half of 2017. You probably didn’t care for Collin McHugh. Why would we? He was returning mid-season from an impingement in his throwing elbow and tendinitis in his shoulder after he held a 4.34 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over 184.2 frames the previous year. It was an investment that just wasn’t worth your time…or so we thought. Instead of mediocrity, McHugh was quietly productive in his 12 starts – 3.55 ERA (3.82 FIP), 22.9% K rate, and a 1.29 WHIP across 63.1 innings. Not studly or game-changing, but nor the disaster we forecasted. This may be chalked up to being a fluke as his numbers aren’t so far off from his large 2016 workload, but I think there was something here that you should be aware of.

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