If it’s ok with Eno I’m going to take the format he used in the first paragraph of his Josh Hamilton piece and apply it to B.J. Upton.

For a 28-year-old outfielder we have a surprising abundance of information about B.J. Upton. 4,000 or so plate appearances. Six full seasons and he has nearly two whole years until he touches 30. He’s worn the masks of several different players during his time in the big leagues, so it’s been tough to pin him down. He’s been the high walk, low power base stealer (2008), the all power, no OBP guy (2012), the low average, moderate power guy (2010-2011), the bust (2009) and the all-around All Star (2007). Over the past few years it appears his true form has come to light.

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As I sit here 30 pounds heavier and still feeling the effects of slipping into a pumpkin pie-induced coma, I am reminded by Zach Sanders’ End of Season Outfielder Rankings that we’re still doing our player evaluations from 2012 and it’s now time to get back to baseball. Obviously, there are plenty of interesting players in the outfield to sift through and discuss, but as I scrolled through, something that caught my eye and had me pleasantly surprised, was that Michael Bourn was sitting at number 16. While most head to head leagues and most of the ottoneu universe dismiss the importance of a burner like Bourn, roto league owners should be looking to grab him in 2013 and gain that much-needed edge in the stolen base and runs scored categories. Read the rest of this entry »

Mike Trout exceeded all expectations in 2012 and produced one of the greatest seasons ever. The hardest part of getting an idea of a reasonable projection for him is that there is basically no one to compare to the 21-year-old. I will give it an attempt today.

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For a 31-year-old outfielder, we have surprisingly little information about Josh Hamilton. 3000 or so plate appearances, three full seasons, and he’s already on the long side of thirty. We all know the reasons why, but it leaves us looking at his different peripheral metrics — all oscillating — and wondering which number should get our focus. None of it might matter as much as his age, on the other hand.

It’s not all bad. Hamilton set career highs in isolated slugging percentage (.292), home runs (43), runs (105), and full season walk rate (9.4%). He hit more home runs per fly ball than he ever had (25.6%), and his line drive rate remained above-average (and above 21%), as it has every year he’s played in the big leagues. We shouldn’t get too wrapped up in his September / October failure (a “terrible” .245/.330/.543) if he’s going to continue being a high-average slugger with center-field eligibility, right?

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Through six major league seasons, we still don’t know what to make of Justin Upton. He’s looked like a budding superstar in 2009 and 2011, and merely an adequate outfielder in 2010 and 2012. A number of fantasy teams invested a high draft pick in Upton last season only to be left disappointed by his production. Coming off another down season, by his standards, Upton now faces a similar predicament. Can he emerge as a superstar player again?

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Hello everyone and welcome back to our positional review of the 2012 season. Hope you enjoyed your turkey, but now it’s back to business. This morning, Zach Sanders published the final season values for outfielders. Sitting at number 53 and earning $6 is perennial breakout candidate Dexter Fowler. But while the absolute ranking and dollar value don’t suggest he outperformed projections, he actually did. And now the question of course is whether these new skills are repeatable.

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The 2012 fantasy baseball season has come to a close, so it is time to look back at the season past and determine which players were the most valuable at each position. This week focuses on outfielders.

The players were ranked based on their 2012 production, using the evaluation system explained and updated on this site some time ago. To keep things manageable and avoid skewing the numbers, players were only considered if they amassed 350 plate appearances over the course of the year. The replacement level was also adjusted to account for players eligible at multiple positions. The valuations are built for $260 budgets and traditional 5×5 roto fantasy leagues.

One important thing to note is the premium (or lack thereof) placed on the position a player occupies in your lineup. For example, while a first baseman may be able to accumulate superior overall numbers, the availability of such production lower in the rankings severely dampers the amount the player was worth.

These rankings are meant to reflect a player’s value should he have occupied this spot in your lineup for the entire year. So, a player who missed time due to injury but put up great numbers during his time on the field would be worth less.

With all this in mind, here are your rankings. Read the rest of this entry »

One of the most exciting times of the off-season is when the first projection set is released. We now have the Bill James system on the player pages for our analyzational (I like making up words) pleasure. One of the most difficult things us fantasy owners have to figure out every year is what to expect from the past season’s biggest surprises. So, let’s take a look at four of this year’s most surprising hitters, both on the positive side and the negative side, and examine each of their early projections.

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After Jeff Zimmerman busted out with the Bill James projections yesterday, I was inspired to bring back the Keeper League Would You Rather series from last offseason. Sure it’s not even Thanksgiving yet and sure, we’re still more than two and a half months away from pitchers and catchers reporting, but it’s never too late to start thinking about your keeper league protects for next season. Obviously, there are a number of factors that go into determining who you keep and who you release — cost, position scarcity, the type of players your league seems to always covet most, just to name a few — so we’re going to stick to comparison within the positions and while we can’t really neglect potential costs, we’re going to focus more on the players’ statistics and expectations. So without further ado, let’s get to our first comparison — Would you rather keep Yoenis Cespedes or Justin Upton? Read the rest of this entry »

What should baseball general managers make of Melky Cabrera? The same question could be asked of fantasy owners. How can we predict, with any confidence, what type of season Cabrera will produce next year? The Blue Jays felt confident enough to give Cabrera a two-year, $16 million contract. And, honestly, Cabrera doesn’t have to be all that good in order to live up to that contract, as my colleague Jeff Sullivan recently explained. But fantasy owners are hoping for more than just a decent performance from Melky going forward. Based on his recent history, how he’ll perform is really anyone’s guess.

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