Through six major league seasons, we still don’t know what to make of Justin Upton. He’s looked like a budding superstar in 2009 and 2011, and merely an adequate outfielder in 2010 and 2012. A number of fantasy teams invested a high draft pick in Upton last season only to be left disappointed by his production. Coming off another down season, by his standards, Upton now faces a similar predicament. Can he emerge as a superstar player again?
Hello everyone and welcome back to our positional review of the 2012 season. Hope you enjoyed your turkey, but now it’s back to business. This morning, Zach Sanders published the final season values for outfielders. Sitting at number 53 and earning $6 is perennial breakout candidate Dexter Fowler. But while the absolute ranking and dollar value don’t suggest he outperformed projections, he actually did. And now the question of course is whether these new skills are repeatable.
The 2012 fantasy baseball season has come to a close, so it is time to look back at the season past and determine which players were the most valuable at each position. This week focuses on outfielders.
The players were ranked based on their 2012 production, using the evaluation system explained and updated on this site some time ago. To keep things manageable and avoid skewing the numbers, players were only considered if they amassed 350 plate appearances over the course of the year. The replacement level was also adjusted to account for players eligible at multiple positions. The valuations are built for $260 budgets and traditional 5×5 roto fantasy leagues.
One important thing to note is the premium (or lack thereof) placed on the position a player occupies in your lineup. For example, while a first baseman may be able to accumulate superior overall numbers, the availability of such production lower in the rankings severely dampers the amount the player was worth.
These rankings are meant to reflect a player’s value should he have occupied this spot in your lineup for the entire year. So, a player who missed time due to injury but put up great numbers during his time on the field would be worth less.
With all this in mind, here are your rankings. Read the rest of this entry »
One of the most exciting times of the off-season is when the first projection set is released. We now have the Bill James system on the player pages for our analyzational (I like making up words) pleasure. One of the most difficult things us fantasy owners have to figure out every year is what to expect from the past season’s biggest surprises. So, let’s take a look at four of this year’s most surprising hitters, both on the positive side and the negative side, and examine each of their early projections.
After Jeff Zimmerman busted out with the Bill James projections yesterday, I was inspired to bring back the Keeper League Would You Rather series from last offseason. Sure it’s not even Thanksgiving yet and sure, we’re still more than two and a half months away from pitchers and catchers reporting, but it’s never too late to start thinking about your keeper league protects for next season. Obviously, there are a number of factors that go into determining who you keep and who you release — cost, position scarcity, the type of players your league seems to always covet most, just to name a few — so we’re going to stick to comparison within the positions and while we can’t really neglect potential costs, we’re going to focus more on the players’ statistics and expectations. So without further ado, let’s get to our first comparison — Would you rather keep Yoenis Cespedes or Justin Upton? Read the rest of this entry »
What should baseball general managers make of Melky Cabrera? The same question could be asked of fantasy owners. How can we predict, with any confidence, what type of season Cabrera will produce next year? The Blue Jays felt confident enough to give Cabrera a two-year, $16 million contract. And, honestly, Cabrera doesn’t have to be all that good in order to live up to that contract, as my colleague Jeff Sullivan recently explained. But fantasy owners are hoping for more than just a decent performance from Melky going forward. Based on his recent history, how he’ll perform is really anyone’s guess.
On Saturday night, the Marlins followed up their latest salary dump by welcoming back Juan Pierre. With Logan Morrison expected to become the team’s starting first baseman, assuming he’s not traded as well, Pierre should see everyday at-bats in left field. With every other lead-off option now gone, Pierre will likely hit atop the lineup on a regular basis.
No, I’m not alluding to Alexander the Great or commenting on Chris Young’s agility, which I’m sure he possesses boatloads of. Back on October 20, Young came to the Beane, as he was traded to Oakland to give them their bajillionth outfielder. Without even looking at numbers, we could be pretty sure that all else equal, Young’s performance will suffer moving into spacious O.co Coliseum (can I officially nominate this as the worst name for an MLB park? thanks). But of course, this is FanGraphs, and we’re all about our calculators and slide rules, so let’s see exactly how his production may be affected.
Learning fantasy lessons in the postseason is a tricky affair. By its nature, a postseason series is a small sample. Also by its nature, a postseason series receives greater emphasis, fair (the games are high leverage when compared to a mid-season tilt) or not (they’re still just seven games). Even though the statistics are kept separately and are often out of mind, though, the fact that this is still baseball means that there is something that can be gleaned from it.
Every season, we fantasy owners could choose to bust our budget for a top first baseman who will contribute handsomely in four categories or spring for a cheaper option, perhaps one we might consider a sleeper. Brandon Belt and John Mayberry were two popular choices for the latter category, but unfortunately, they remained in a slumber all season. Based on Zach Sanders’ magical formula, Belt actually reduced the final value of a fantasy team by a buck, ranking 39th among first basemen, while Mayberry did even more damage, “earning” a strong -$5 (yes, negative), and ranking 46th. So what happened and is there post-sleeper hope for next season?
