I have never thought much about, or given much attention to, FanGraphs’ fan projections. It’s primarily a matter of stubbornness: I run my own projections, and I develop my own strategy, so why should I listen to you? At least there’s a trace of rationale behind it: I know how I created my projections (whether or not they’re any good is a topic for another day), but I have no idea how you created yours. Thus, I am more likely to blindly trust a computer-generated projection system such as Steamer instead of random fan projections.

Still, there is a sort of bizarre, secondhand wisdom to fan projections. For every person who is high on a particular player, there could be another person who is equally-and-oppositely down on him. Solicit and aggregate enough fan projections and you could produce a very reasonable prediction of a player’s performance by sheer chance.

Which is why fan projections intrigue me. If, for example, Steamer predicts the most likely outcome from a wide range of possible outcomes for a player, then the fans convey the anticipated outcome for a player. The difference between them, you could say, is what amounts to a market inefficiency (aka a price distortion). The larger the difference, the greater the inefficiency. We see these inefficiencies arise every year — 2014’s most prevalent example is probably Corey Kluber — and they typically manifest because of a lack of information about certain players.

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It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.

The Diamondbacks are coming off a dismal season. Discoveries in the outfield were one of the lone bright spots. A new season and health could give the club an opportunity to play spoiler in the NL West. Their outfielders will be a big part of any success.

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You know that I develop my own player projections, of which I have lovingly dubbed Pod Projections. With over 500 players projected, I thought it would be interesting to compare them with the Steamer forecasts. So Steamer and I is a new mini-series in which I discuss a pair (maybe more, maybe less) of players who I have projected for dramatically different results than Steamer. To do this, I simply compared my wOBA projections with Steamers’, calculated the difference and then sorted.

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The 2014 version of the Cincinnati Reds outfield experienced some level of disappoint. Both Jay Bruce and Ryan Ludwick hit below league average in 400 or more plate appearances and Chris Heisey‘s 77 wRC+ in 299 PA’s didn’t help. Questions about Billy Hamilton’s bat and contact skills turned into legitimate concerns as the speedy outfielder posted a poor 0.29 BB:K ratio, tied for 122nd among 146 qualified batters. There should be power to be had with Marlon Byrd joining the team and Bruce potentially bouncing back. Just be warned that the rate stats the Reds OF will put up won’t be too pretty.

Left Field
Marlon Byrd
Donald Lutz
Skip Schumaker

Center Field
Billy Hamilton
Jason Bourgeois

Right Field
Jay Bruce
Donald Lutz
Skip Schumaker

In the Minors
Yorman Rodriguez
Jesse Winker

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There is, potentially, a lot to like about the Brewers’ outfield this season. After a second straight season with a wOBA over .360, Carlos Gomez has settled in as a top-10 option in most leagues, and close to a sure thing as far as production. Ryan Braun, on the other hand, seems to have gone in the opposite direction. Much of the Brewers’ value in the outfield will be based on whether Braun can get back to his mashing ways, and whether Khris Davis can regain his midseason surge. There’s opportunity for a fantasy bonanza here, but it comes with a fair amount of risk.

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The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

For Pod Projectionee numero tres, I decided to take commenter Cason Jolette’s (Jason Colette’s mysterious brother?) suggestion to discuss former uber prospect, Astros sophomore outfielder George Springer. His coming out party was cut short by a quad injury, which ended his season two months prematurely. But he was quite impressive at the plate, posting a .352 wOBA, while displaying excellent patience and elite power. But coming off a minor league performance a year prior that included 45 stolen bases, he disappointed with his speed in Houston, as he swiped just five bags in seven tries. Let’s figure out what’s in store for Springer in 2015.

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Hello readers! This is my first post on RotoGraphs. I’ll be writing a weekly column here focusing on hitters and chipping in wherever else I’m needed. I’m thankful for the opportunity from Eno and the gang, and excited to get cracking.

Everyone forgot about Carlos Gonzalez. Maybe that’s not right. How’s this: We got tired of dealing with Carlos Gonzalez. Looking at his rankings this year, that must be what happened.

It’s somewhat understandable. Gonzalez is seemingly always hurt. Things were especially bad last season with terrible production in only 70 games. His Contact% and SwStr% have both been in steady decline since his massive 2010. And he’s already 29, making a season of good health seem less and less likely each passing year. I can definitely understand the Gonzalez fatigue. But when does his risk become worth taking?

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It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.

Injuries ravaged the 2014 Rangers top to bottom. They had to use 27 different hitters throughout the season, nine of which played in the outfield at some point. Coming into the season, they were slated to have one of the most fruitful fantasy outfields in the league, but it failed in spectacular fashion. Two of their mainstays remain while Alex Rios has moved on to Kansas City. Let’s take a look at the group that will try and improve upon the horrid 2014 output:

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The baseball community — owners, scouts, fantasy analysts et al. — is slowly learning how Cuban hitters plucked from the Cuban National Series (CNS) perform in Major League Baseball. Unfortunately, the sample size is not increasing very quickly. The common fantasy owner is helplessly resigned to rely on a) scouting reports, and/or b) his or her own eyes, probably via a batting practice video uploaded online. Ideally, a Cuban hitter’s salary would serve as a proxy for what one could expect offensively and defensively from his imported bat and glove, but the market, and the information that defines it, is far from perfect.

The market for Cuban hitters is a pendulum, but rather than coming to rest, it is in full swing: hitters such as Yoenis Cespedes, Yasiel Puig and Jose Abreu, who are all but locks to fulfill the value of their modest contracts and then some, have plumped up the market for international signees. The Diamondbacks’ Yasmany Tomas, therefore, should not be compared to Abreu simply because the average annual values (AAV) of their contracts are almost identical. The dynamics of this particular market are nebulous, changing with every transaction.

But that doesn’t mean we can’t compare Tomas and Abreu statistically. Comparing the CNS and MLB performances of hitters more recently signed out of Cuba can still give us at least a faint idea of how we can expect Tomas to perform. This is my hope, at least. I’ll be the first to admit the analysis that follows is not as rigorous as I wish it could be, as the sample of contemporary, fantasy-relevant Cuban hitters who recently played in the CNS simply lacks breadth.

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The Washington Nationals offer talent all over the field and the players who roam the outfield is no different. There are options for speed, power or rate stats, though be cautious of the injury potential. Of what should shake out to be the normal starting three, Jayson Werth has a history of injuries, Denard Span underwent off-season hernia surgery and Bryce Harper was limited to 100 games last season due to a torn ligament in his thumb. Despite the injury concern the upside here is excellent.

Center Field
Denard Span
Nate McLouth
Michael Taylor

Left Field
Jayson Werth
Nate McLouth
Michael Taylor
Tyler Moore
Kevin Frandsen

Right Field
Bryce Harper
Nate McLouth
Michael Taylor
Tyler Moore

In the Minors
Brian Goodwin
Mike Carp

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