The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

For Pod Projectionee numero tres, I decided to take commenter Cason Jolette’s (Jason Colette’s mysterious brother?) suggestion to discuss former uber prospect, Astros sophomore outfielder George Springer. His coming out party was cut short by a quad injury, which ended his season two months prematurely. But he was quite impressive at the plate, posting a .352 wOBA, while displaying excellent patience and elite power. But coming off a minor league performance a year prior that included 45 stolen bases, he disappointed with his speed in Houston, as he swiped just five bags in seven tries. Let’s figure out what’s in store for Springer in 2015.

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Hello readers! This is my first post on RotoGraphs. I’ll be writing a weekly column here focusing on hitters and chipping in wherever else I’m needed. I’m thankful for the opportunity from Eno and the gang, and excited to get cracking.

Everyone forgot about Carlos Gonzalez. Maybe that’s not right. How’s this: We got tired of dealing with Carlos Gonzalez. Looking at his rankings this year, that must be what happened.

It’s somewhat understandable. Gonzalez is seemingly always hurt. Things were especially bad last season with terrible production in only 70 games. His Contact% and SwStr% have both been in steady decline since his massive 2010. And he’s already 29, making a season of good health seem less and less likely each passing year. I can definitely understand the Gonzalez fatigue. But when does his risk become worth taking?

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It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.

Injuries ravaged the 2014 Rangers top to bottom. They had to use 27 different hitters throughout the season, nine of which played in the outfield at some point. Coming into the season, they were slated to have one of the most fruitful fantasy outfields in the league, but it failed in spectacular fashion. Two of their mainstays remain while Alex Rios has moved on to Kansas City. Let’s take a look at the group that will try and improve upon the horrid 2014 output:

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The baseball community — owners, scouts, fantasy analysts et al. — is slowly learning how Cuban hitters plucked from the Cuban National Series (CNS) perform in Major League Baseball. Unfortunately, the sample size is not increasing very quickly. The common fantasy owner is helplessly resigned to rely on a) scouting reports, and/or b) his or her own eyes, probably via a batting practice video uploaded online. Ideally, a Cuban hitter’s salary would serve as a proxy for what one could expect offensively and defensively from his imported bat and glove, but the market, and the information that defines it, is far from perfect.

The market for Cuban hitters is a pendulum, but rather than coming to rest, it is in full swing: hitters such as Yoenis Cespedes, Yasiel Puig and Jose Abreu, who are all but locks to fulfill the value of their modest contracts and then some, have plumped up the market for international signees. The Diamondbacks’ Yasmany Tomas, therefore, should not be compared to Abreu simply because the average annual values (AAV) of their contracts are almost identical. The dynamics of this particular market are nebulous, changing with every transaction.

But that doesn’t mean we can’t compare Tomas and Abreu statistically. Comparing the CNS and MLB performances of hitters more recently signed out of Cuba can still give us at least a faint idea of how we can expect Tomas to perform. This is my hope, at least. I’ll be the first to admit the analysis that follows is not as rigorous as I wish it could be, as the sample of contemporary, fantasy-relevant Cuban hitters who recently played in the CNS simply lacks breadth.

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The Washington Nationals offer talent all over the field and the players who roam the outfield is no different. There are options for speed, power or rate stats, though be cautious of the injury potential. Of what should shake out to be the normal starting three, Jayson Werth has a history of injuries, Denard Span underwent off-season hernia surgery and Bryce Harper was limited to 100 games last season due to a torn ligament in his thumb. Despite the injury concern the upside here is excellent.

Center Field
Denard Span
Nate McLouth
Michael Taylor

Left Field
Jayson Werth
Nate McLouth
Michael Taylor
Tyler Moore
Kevin Frandsen

Right Field
Bryce Harper
Nate McLouth
Michael Taylor
Tyler Moore

In the Minors
Brian Goodwin
Mike Carp

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It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.

Projection systems are usually pretty great when it comes to veterans. The players have typically accumulated a fair amount of stats during their career, making it easier to peg their expected value for the upcoming season. The Indians will open the season with three veterans in the outfield. The Indians outfield is incredibly difficult to project.

There are reasons for that, of course. One of their players is coming off what looks to be an exceptional career year, another spent the entire second half injured and the third is hoping to reverse course after two disappointing years. There could be a lot to like in Cleveland’s outfield, but there are also plenty of questions.

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This post continues our Depth Chart Discussions. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, rotation, and bullpen) and will continue to break them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find the Depth Chart Discussion posts gathered here.

Just as you might expect from a Colorado Rockies team, this is an outfield in which the prospect of high production is balanced against sharp home/away splits and, in the case of one outfielder, heavy injury risk. That said, there’s plenty here to entice owners in all formats, including a former first-round fantasy stud and two players coming off breakout campaigns.
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The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

Today’s Pod Projectionee is Cuban rookie Yasmany Tomas, who I drafted in last week’s LABR mixed league. It’s hard enough projecting Major League veterans and even more difficult forecasting rookies with only minor league data to rely on. But trying to predict exactly what a player with no professional experience in a stateside league might do is a true shot in the dark. So this was a challenge and one I would like to share with you.

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In our last séance together, we confided to you our passion for Ender Inciarte. That passion was sparked by our attempt to identify hitters who, over the course of the 2014 season, figured out something new about hitting, and were recognized as such by opposing pitchers. In doing that, we also came across hitters who appear to have been tamed during the season, in that they were both seeing better pitches and chasing more bad ones, with declining results. We provided lists of the top- and bottom-20 hitters, according to this metric. One of the top guys was Ender Inciarte. Now we’ll interrogate (as they used to say in Deconstructionland) those lists, see how they answer, and try to separate signal from noise.

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Trying to figure out who is going to play in the Orioles outfield besides Adam Jones is simply a mess. The talent is tightly bunched with no one standing out. To add to the mess, the Orioles designated hitter will likely also be an outfielder. Stepping through the available information sort of makes the situation clearer, but no one will know for sure until the season starts.

Center field

This position is set with Adam Jones. The 29-year-old righty has been about as steady as can be over the past three seasons with about 160 games, 30 home runs and a .285 AVG. His only trait on the decline over those three years is his stolen bases going from 16 to seven. His defensive numbers have him as an average to below average center fielder which means he is a safe bet to stay there for the entire 2015 season.

Right Field, Left Field and Designated Hitter Read the rest of this entry »