Steamer and I: Corey Dickerson & A.J. Pollock

You know that I develop my own player projections, of which I have lovingly dubbed Pod Projections. With over 500 players projected, I thought it would be interesting to compare them with the Steamer forecasts. So Steamer and I is a new mini-series in which I discuss a pair (maybe more, maybe less) of players who I have projected for dramatically different results than Steamer. To do this, I simply compared my wOBA projections with Steamers’, calculated the difference and then sorted.

To begin, let’s discuss two youngish outfielders who enjoyed breakout performances in 2014. I am projecting both of these outfielders much more optimistically than Steamer. What has led to my bullishness? Let’s find out.

To make comparisons simpler, I will extrapolate the Steamer projections to the same number of plate appearances that I have projected.

Corey Dickerson

Let’s begin with what Steamer and I generally agree on. We both project an identical number of triples. We’re also fairly close on both walk and strikeout rates, though Steamer is forecasting slightly lower rates for both metrics. The doubles projection is also relatively close, but still counts as the first data point contributing to my more optimistic ISO mark.

We we find the largest gaps are in home runs and BABIP. We’ll talk homers first. I’m projecting a 17.5% HR/FB rate, versus a 19.5% mark in 2014. Unfortunately, Steamer doesn’t project HR/FB rate directly and there’s no way to calculate it without a batted ball distribution projection. But here are the facts — Dickerson’s 299 foot average batted ball distance ranked 15th among hitters on my spreadsheet and his 21.7% xHR/FB rate ranked ninth. And he consistently posted ISO marks well above .200 during his minor league career. Although his Triple-A performance came in a seriously hitter friendly environment, he still calls such a place home, it’s just in a different location. I did choose to project some HR/FB rate regression, but not to the degree the Steamer projections are implying.

Now how about his BABIP? Dickerson posted a monstrous .356 mark in 2014, which any projection system is going to regress heavily, especially involving a player with limited Major League experience. But his xBABIP was even more ridiculous at .374! That’s what happens when you combine immense power, above average speed and a 26.7% line drive rate. He also typically posted inflated BABIP marks in the minors. And given that Coors Field boosts line drives by 18% with its 109 park factor (easily the highest in baseball), it suggests this batted ball profile shouldn’t automatically be expected to significantly worsen.

Let’s also not forget that Dickerson doesn’t turn 26 until this season, so if you just look at his age, he should still be in growth mode.

A.J. Pollock

Out of every hitter that I projected, Pollock had the second largest positive differential between my wOBA forecast and Steamer’s (Scott Van Slyke ranked first). We agree on his strikeout rate and are close on the triples, but that’s it. I’m projecting a stronger walk rate, and a better mark than 2014 for several reasons. Pollock doesn’t swing at too many pitches outside the zone (below average O-Swing%) and also doesn’t swing at all pitches as frequently as the league (below average Swing%). At the very least, it was enough to assume improvement back toward his career walk rate, also factoring in that walk rate should still be expected to rise at Pollock’s age.

Once again, the big difference stems from the power and the BABIP. First, the doubles really jump out. Pollock was a doubles machine last year, launching a double every 13.95 at bats. For his career, he’s at 15.47, which is right about where I projected him (15.5) this season. I’m not sure what Steamer is using to forecast a much weaker AB/2B mark of 19.0 as it doesn’t fit in with Pollock’s history at all.

Moving past doubles and we land on home runs. Pollock’s HR/FB rate jumped from just 6.6% in 2013 to 9.5% in 2014. Surely that is what Steamer is looking at when projecting big regression. I, on the other hand, am projecting a 9.0% mark, as his batted ball distances these last two seasons have sat just above the league average, as has his SDD marks. His 2013 xHR/FB rate came in at 12.0% and 2014 mark 10.3%. Since he also plays in a home park that sports a right-handed home run factor of 105, I’m quite comfortable with my home run forecast.

Last is the BABIP, which I am seemingly more optimistic on for 99% of players compared to Steamer. Pollock posted a .344 mark in 2014 and .314 in 2013. However, his xBABIP hints at a bit of good fortune, as those marks sat at .308 and .303, respectively. And yet, I’m projecting a .320 mark! First, Chase Field boosts both doubles and triples and park factors are not accounted for in my xBABIP formula. Second, Pollock has posted high BABIP marks in the minors, which suggests perhaps he owns a skill not incorporated into xBABIP yet. And last, his .308 xBABIP in 2014 was partly driven by a poor 14.2% line drive rate, which I am projecting to rebound to 18% this year. An 18% line drive rate would have pushed his xBABIP up to .322. Even if I may be just a tad bit high on the BABIP projection, Steamer seems far too low with no rhyme or reason behind its projection.

So which side do you lean toward, mine or Steamer, for these two multi-skilled outfielders?