2015 Pod Projections: George Springer
The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X, and the process continues to evolve and improve.
For Pod Projectionee numero tres, I decided to take commenter Cason Jolette’s (Jason Colette’s mysterious brother?) suggestion to discuss former uber prospect, Astros sophomore outfielder George Springer. His coming out party was cut short by a quad injury, which ended his season two months prematurely. But he was quite impressive at the plate, posting a .352 wOBA, while displaying excellent patience and elite power. But coming off a minor league performance a year prior that included 45 stolen bases, he disappointed with his speed in Houston, as he swiped just five bags in seven tries. Let’s figure out what’s in store for Springer in 2015.
Pod Projections Index:
Yasmany Tomas
Anthony Rendon
Plate Appearances: 600
He’s set to hit third in an offense projected by our depth charts to rank in the middle of the American League pack in runs scored. This might prove to be slightly low, but given the leg injury that cost him two months, I’d prefer to remain a bit conservative until he shows us he can exceed 600 plate appearances.
K%: 29.6%
This just so happened to perfectly match with Steamer’s projection, which I didn’t look at until after my projection was complete. Springer posted an awful 18.6% SwStk% mark last year, en route to a 33% K%, but he’s been better in the minors. We have to figure some improvement, but how much is the question. He posted a respectable 24.4% strikeout rate at Triple-A in 2013, so perhaps we could see a mid-20% mark in the near future. If he could maintain his power at that strikeout rate, it would potentially give him first round upside.
GB%/LD%/FB%: 44% / 18% / 38%
This is almost league average, but his line drive rate remains below that mark. Hitters do have significantly more control over their line drive rates than pitchers, so it’s unlikely that Springer is going to suddenly post a mark well above 20%. But given the rather small sample of his first taste of the Majors, I assume some improvement.
BABIP: .320
Springer posted just a .294 BABIP with the Astros, but there are two reasons for optimism. First, his xBABIP based on my formula was .309. That it was still above average despite the low line drive rate is intriguing. If I increase his line drive rate to the 18% I’m projecting, his xBABIP jumps to .319, almost identical to my projection. Second, his career minor league BABIP was a robust .379. We know that minor league BABIPs don’t perfectly translate to the Majors, but in my projecting experience, it does correlate well, though I have no research to back that up.
HR/FB Ratio: 22%
Springer was the second biggest HR/FB rate overachiver as per my xHR/FB rate formula. But! His xHR/FB rate still ranked ninth in baseball and was supported by a batted ball distance that ranked third. This all came as a 24-year-old rookie. Insane. So he’s got some serious power. But there’s just no way I could reasonably project a player with 345 career Major League plate appearances to post a mid-to-high 20% HR/FB rate, which is essentially league-leading territory. Springer’s projected HR/FB rate is the fourth highest I am projecting for any hitter.
And here are Springer’s HR/FB rates throughout his minor league career:
| Year | PA | HR | HR/FB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 580 | 24 | 16.0% |
| 2013 | 589 | 37 | 28.5% |
| 2014 | 68 | 3 | 18.8% |
| Total | 1270 | 65 | 21.3% |
RBI and Runs: 83 and 79
Springer figures to hit third in the Astros order, behind a pair of hitters projected for mediocre OBP marks. Over the past three seasons, the third hole in the American League produced an average of 93 runs batted in, but that number includes every hitter that batted from that spot. Springer isn’t going to play 162 games and notch 700 plate appearances. Over 600 plate appearances, that average drops to 79 RBI. Springer is projected to hit for significantly more power than the average AL third hole hitter, but put the ball in play far less frequently. So based on an RBI per ball in play analysis, a projection of 83 runs batted in is what the math resulted in.
Given Springer’s propensity to strike out, his OBP projection is just .344, even with a strong walk rate. The rest of the Astros lineup is mediocre, though should be better than last year, when his runs scored per times on base was rather low. I’m expecting improvement on that front given what should be a better Astros supporting cast. Over 600 plate appearances, AL third hole batters have averaged 73 runs scored, but Springer’s ability to knock himself in overcomes my projection for him to score less frequently on non-home run times on base than the league average.
SB: 16
Here’s where things get interesting. As mentioned in the intro, Springer stole 45 bases at an impressive 85% success rate during his 2013 minor league season. He attempted .207 steals per time on base, excluding homers, in 2013, but just .073 steals per time on base while with the Astros. Springer’s Spd scores have oscillated between about average to excellent, while his triples rate suggests above average speed.
It’s difficult to determine exactly why he didn’t run very often while with the Astros and therefore his range of potential outcomes this year is quite large. He’s not a classic speedster, so it’s hard to imagine him coming anywhere close to the 40 steals plateau. But whether he only swipes 10 or attempts 30, I don’t know. My projection is playing it safe by sitting somewhere in the middle.
Below is my final projected fantasy batting line, along with the other systems for comparison.
| System | PA | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | R | SB | K% | BABIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pod | 600 | 520 | 0.251 | 29 | 83 | 79 | 16 | 29.6% | 0.320 |
| Steamer | 608 | 533 | 0.236 | 29 | 79 | 77 | 14 | 29.6% | 0.294 |
| ZiPS | 493 | 437 | 0.238 | 26 | 74 | 72 | 17 | 32.5% | 0.311 |
| ZiPS – 600 PA | 600 | 532 | 0.238 | 32 | 90 | 88 | 21 | 32.5% | 0.311 |
| Fans (48) | 613 | 528 | 0.252 | 30 | 95 | 90 | 21 | 29.0% | 0.318 |
It’s no surprise that the Fans’ projected line would yield the highest fantasy value. However, it is a surprise that ZiPS projects the most home runs. The range of projected stolen bases is a bit smaller than I would have guessed, as it seems all systems are just projecting somewhere in between his minor league and Major League marks. The Steamer BABIP projection is curiously low, though in looking at their projections this year, Steamer is seemingly too low on 99% of players. Odd. I’m most optimistic on BABIP, which makes sense since I’m likely incorporating the most data of any system, and it has led to my bullishness.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
I like it Mike. I wish I could trade for him. Now…..600+ more to go.
Thanks
also, Renthony Andon
Why is overall Steamer projections so pessimistic and Fans so optimistic?
You could pick just about any player and see the same result – not unique to Springer. Fans are far more optimistic across the board.
Partly, it’s the nature of projection models to regress outliers… and partly it’s the nature of humans projecting best-case, especially when it comes to young, exciting players.
Fan projections have historically been more positive than Steamer.
I’m not sure about Steamer, but I’m pretty sure fans mostly only do projections of players on their fantasy team or who they want to be on their team. No one likely bothers doing a projection for players they see as boring or overrated.
That’s why I wish it asked you whether a player you’re projecting is on your fantasy team, rather than who your favorite team is. I care about the White Sox about 5% more than any other team, but I care about guys on my fantasy team about 500% more than randos I don’t own.
Request for next time: Christian Yelich
Funny, I was actually about to write him up for today, but changed course and went with Springer instead. If I do another hitter, will consider Yelich again, but need to get to pitchers.
Pitchers: Carrasco! Some rankings out there are REALLY high.
You piqued my interest in Yelich when you wrote up his GB% and HR/FB upside. Full write-up not needed, but are you projecting any kind of HR breakout this year? Steamer sees a jump to 14.
I think I’m projecting 13 if I remember correctly. A true breakout is going to be immensely difficult with a sub-20% fly ball rate. He’ll need to boost that first for any chance of sniffing 20 homers.
And yes, given my love for Carrasco heading into 2014, he’s a good choice for the series.
With regards to Yelich, the power is there but the batted ball mix is not. How common is it for players to radically change their batted ball mix?
It happens, but mix is rather stable. He’s highly unlikely to suddenly become a 30% fly ball guy. But maybe he peaks in the mid-20% range., which could be enough to reach around 20 homers.
I’m confused by this comment given that Springer has had exactly one triple in 345 plate appearances, while his eight doubles were also well below average. Now add in the fielding metrics that pegged his range as just average for right field. I think we’re assuming a level of speed for George based on his minor league steals totals when history tells us that there are plenty of players who stole frequently in the minor leagues on aggressiveness alone without stealing all that many in the major leagues. I agree that there is some potential for growth based on that past aggressiveness, but I wouldn’t assume it will occur and I’d be cautious about how much growth to project. Essentially, I would expect closer to 10 steals than 15, and I would be very surprised if he reached 20.
As for the rest, I keep referencing this in various places because it is so striking that it bears repeating. No major leaguer with 200+ plate appearances in a season has had a worse overall contact rate than George Springer since Wily Mo Peña in 2005, and no one at all with that many plate appearances has had a worse Z-contact rate during that period. Springer’s contact rates are actually worse than all but a handful of pitchers. He is almost unbelievably terrible at making contact with major league pitching, so I would not expect the line drive rate to increase to a league average rate. Now add in that his HR/FB rate is more likely to be 20% than 22% and this projection looks optimistic across the board, although less so than many others I’ve seen.
“He is almost unbelievably terrible at making contact with major league pitching, so I would not expect the line drive rate to increase to a league average rate.”
What do those things have to do with one another?
Because hitting line drives means squaring up pitches and goes in conjunction with contact rate.
The relationship is pretty weak. Between 2010 and 2014, correlation between LD% and Contact% was about .27 for qualified batters, and .24 using Z-Contact%. Adam Dunn’s career LD% is on par with that of Ben Revere, and Chris Davis comes in at about 23%.
The contact question is valid however it’s been brought up and answered here before. The conclusion was Springer just makes really good contact when he does make contact, and he actually is very selective in what he swings at. He doesn’t chase bad pitches often.
So yes he can very well up his LD% because all that means is the percentage of balls he puts in play that get scored as line drives. Also, some guys who hit the ball as hard as Springer does have their line drives go further and they get classified as fly balls instead, so it’s by no means a perfect stat.
I don’t know what you mean when you assert that the contact question has been “answered.” It has been discussed, as I’ve been bringing it up for years now, but I don’t know that anyone was expecting Springer to be that atrocious as a rookie. When someone is historically bad, it merits more attention than it has gotten thus far. And as noted above, line drive rates correlate with contact ability, especially Z-Contact ability. You can compensate for less than stellar contact rates by having a low pop-up rate, yet Springer was no better than average there last season.
I quickly found out that when I introduced myself as “Jason” to Rays players and talked analytics, some assumed I was Collette. Clearly they didn’t know that Collette is a giant ogre.
Another interesting suggestion would be Drew Smyly. They had a really interesting piece on the Rays SB site the other day written by Woodrum about Smyly’s insane pop out rate since he was traded to the Rays. Not sure how you factor IFFB% into your formula.
I don’t project it and it’s not directly in any of my formulas. However, i look at entire batted ball mix when projecting BABIP.
Seems like it should factor it in since its a repeatable skill and a pop up is the closest thing to a strike out.
Springer didn’t run last year with the Astros because of lingering injuries in his legs. The Astros held him back on the bases. I think it’s safe to project 25+ stolen bases this year given the speed he showcased in the minors, and given the loose reigns the Astros have shown for other healthy players like Altuve.