Depth chart discussions are in full swing. We are analyzing each team’s infield, outfield, rotation and bullpen components in separate segments. Catch up on the discussions here.

I don’t know how analyze the Cardinals’ outfield in a way that properly acknowledges the significant role the Cardinals’ carved out for Oscar Taveras without marginalizing or trivializing his life and talent nor condoning the cause of his passing. His sudden death shocked the baseball community and left a gaping hole in the St. Louis outfield. Unfortunately, there’s a lot we’ll never know about Taveras, the budding superstar who never was — or, perhaps more accurately, never got to be.

* * *

With the departures of Carlos Beltran and Allen Craig, and with Matt Adams employed full-time at first base, the St. Louis outfield looks thin. But the Cards have a pair of prospects ready to contribute at the Major League level (or close to it), both of whom will likely assume full-time roles in the next couple of years. Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ regulars, barring injury, will assume the lion’s share of the starting duties and produce enough offensive and defensive value to warrant their lack of depth — if they stay healthy, that is, and that’s a big “if.”

Left Field: Matt Holliday (Age 35)
Read the rest of this entry »

Depth chart discussions are in full swing. We are analyzing each team’s infield, outfield, rotation and bullpen components in separate segments. Catch up on the discussions here.

A couple of weeks ago, I highlighted the 10 most “MLB-ready” AAA outfield prospects based on a variety of requirements about which you can read if you click through. The idea was to ignore any kind of prospect labels and strictly let the statistics and hitters’ ages tell the story.

The list is by no means definitive, but Pirates outfielders assumed four of the 10 spots. Their projections weren’t necessarily rosy — they may all end up being bench pieces at best, for all we know — but it doesn’t negate the fact that they may be ready to positively contribute at the Major League level in some capacity. Toss into the mix top prospect Austin Meadows farther down the organizational ladder and it becomes clear that Pittsburgh has enough outfield depth throughout its system to support an ensemble cast that should be together for years to come.

Left Field: Starling Marte (Age 26)
Read the rest of this entry »

If opportunity knocks, then Steven Souza is pounding on your door while calling your phone and blowing up your email inbox. I almost included Souza in my 10 bold predictions, but I believe he warrants more than just a quick blurb there.

Traded to the Tampa Bay Rays from the blocked off outfield of the Washington Nationals this off-season, Souza figures to be a staple in either corner for his new club. Now entering his age-26 season, Souza appears to be poised for an under-the-radar impact fantasy season. His skill set — plus playing time — make him a likely four category player. For two consecutive seasons he has nabbed at least 25 steals without being caught more than seven times and hit for at least 15 home runs.
Read the rest of this entry »

It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.

On the one hand, the Angels outfield is almost guaranteed to be among the best in the league. However, depth is an issue now that Josh Hamilton’s future is in question. If Mike Trout lands on the disabled list – and it will eventually happen – the entire club could go from the division favorite to fighting for a Wild Card berth.

With David Wiers rambling about spirit animals on a daily basis, I’d be remiss if I didn’t point out the animal theme of this outfield. Trout’s the easy one, but then there is Hamilton and Cowgill. Calhoun is a ‘D’ away from participating. Anywho, let’s dig in.

Read the rest of this entry »

An unambiguously true fact: Matt Holliday is an old man in baseball years and in dog years. Another unambiguously true fact: Holliday has been remarkably consistent throughout his career. Hear ye:

• He has hit at least 20 home runs in nine straight years, a streak currently matched only by David Ortiz and Miguel Cabrera;
• His walk rate has hovered between 10 and 12 percent for the better part of a decade, and his strikeout rate has always resided in the mid-teens;
• He has averaged 647 plate appearances per season dating back to 2006;
• And honestly, I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a batted ball profile so absurdly consistent.

Yet a slight dip in power and a career-worst batting average (.272, aka what some players can only dream of hitting) in 2014 couldn’t have come at a worse age, and it all has fans and projection systems alike running for the hills, as shown below.
Read the rest of this entry »

When injury strikes, opportunity arises. This time, Michael Taylor is the beneficiary. Initially expected to step in for Jayson Werth as he recovers from right shoulder surgery, Taylor is suddenly set to enjoy more guaranteed playing time in the wake of Denard Span’s expected absence. Yesterday, Span underwent core muscle surgery, which figures to sideline him for at least four to six weeks. That means that Taylor will now fill in at center field, possibly for the entire first month of the season.

Read the rest of this entry »

In doing prep for the only non-dynasty snake draft I will be participating in this year (I split another league but will be on vacation during the draft), I was a bit shocked at how Gregory Polanco is being priced. I am a big advocate of not taking risks on hitters and not paying for “potential breakouts.” There is a big lack of certainty we all take on the pitching end and I would much rather know what I am getting and paying for out of my bats.
Read the rest of this entry »

The San Diego Padres out ran 16, (sixteen!), different outfielders in 2014 and unless you’ve been living in the Krubera Cave in the Republic of Georgia, you’ve probably seen there were a few changes made in for 2015. Before the great Padre roster overhaul, their outfield appeared to be comprised of some combination of Will Venable, Abraham Almonte, Cameron Maybin, and Carlos Quentin until his back broke.

Read the rest of this entry »

This is meant to be less of an overly serious analysis as it is an exercise in projecting minor league players in a new and different way. Unfortunately, Chris Mitchell has largely done what I’m about to present, and with more sophistication at that, so I’ll have to strike out the new part. But different? Sure, to an extent.

While Chris’ KATOH predicts a hitter’s probability of major league success by projecting career wins above replacement (WAR) thresholds, my model predicts probability of future success in the context of various career accomplishments: Will he be a better-than-replacement level starter? An All-Star? A future MVP? Ultimately, the exercise is simpler and more qualitative, evaluating strictly AAA stats (rather than all minor league levels, as KATOH does) and making predictions according to various marginal changes in common statistics such as isolated power (ISO), stolen base rate (SB/PA) and age. Think of the model as a series of player comparisons. Also, please think of the model as not a replacement or substitute for KATOH but a complement to it, albeit a less intense one. I will use this tool for analysis, but only infrequently; I recommend you keep up with all of Chris’ KATOH posts (as well as Kiley McDaniels‘ prospect coverage) to fulfill your prospect consumption needs.

Read the rest of this entry »

It is much easier to get excited about a player than it is to see the negative. Sure, if a guy has a rotten injury record, it is pretty easy to knock him down. But most fantasy players are eager to identify to the next set of sleepers or breakouts or whatever term you feel is adequate to describe middle-round guys who will explode into early-round assets. What about looking at some of the flaws of those early-to-mid round guys we’re all so certain will explode this year? There are certainly reasons to love these guys (and several of them are guys I’m quite high on coming into the season), but let’s at least be aware of the shortcomings and what could possibly hold them back from that big time season we’re banking on.

Read the rest of this entry »