“Don’t read into Spring Training stats” is a good surface level mantra to hold on to. The competition is uneven, the results don’t matter, and the players are all working on things in preparation for the regular season. To some extent, it’s like looking at September numbers on a non-contending team: those are very different from May numbers.

Even the benefits of a huge surge in results is only slightly predictive. There’s the study from John Dewan about a huge slugging percentage breakout in the spring, but recently work by Ben Lindbergh and Jon Shepherd poked some holes in the theory.

If you look at when stats stabilize, however, there are a few stats worth checking out. We know from Jeff Zimmerman that fastball velocity stabilizes very quickly, and so it’s worth reading his MASH articles to find the most recent gun readings on pitchers.

And we know that strikeouts stabilize quickly — 100 plate appearances for batters, 126 batters faced for pitchers. A spring is something like a half of a September, so it doesn’t get to those thresholds, but the evidence is there that strikeouts become meaningful quicker than most stats, and so therefore spring strikeouts may be worth keeping an eye on.

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Time for another round of rankings for the American League outfield. As usual, the tiers and rankings reflect 5×5 redraft values for what the I believe the players will accomplish, not necessarily their present (or soon to be) numbers. For example, if someone starts slow, don’t expect them to drop too far. Without further delay, here are the tiers, represented by my favorite Nintendo 64 games.

GoldenEye
Mike Trout

A player in a tier by himself, a nostalgic game in a tier by itself. Instead of droning on and on about Trout —something I could easily do — instead here is a video of the first level accomplished via speedrun.
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It’s been quite the offseason for Michael Saunders. He was traded, then had knee surgery. Then there were reports he might be ready for Opening Day. Now there’s news he will definitely not be ready for Opening Day. Even with that latest bit, he’s worth an investment for a few reasons.

Saunders has some power. He hit 19 home runs in 139 games in 2012. Since that was the highest HR/FB rate he’s produced and his batted ball distance was higher that year than in the two following, 19 feels like a good upside total. The move to Toronto will help since Rogers Centre boosts left-handed power and Safeco Field slightly suppresses it.

Saunders has some speed. He stole 21 bases in 2012 and 13 in 2013. He was much less effective last season, stealing four bases in nine attempts. Since he’s 28 and has shown speed every other season, I’m not going to buy his speed has suddenly dried up.

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Every year, we here at RotoGraphs publish tiered rankings for every position and update them throughout the year. What you will read below are, more or less, my end-of-season projections for National League outfielders, since the season hasn’t started yet. However, these rankings will change as the year progresses, and I would be a fool to tell you the tiers below will look the same in September.

No doubt, this is a contentious matter, and you can tell me how much of a moron I am in the comments.

Without further ado, here is the 2015 season’s first installment of tiered rankings for NL outfielders.

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I already covered by thoughts on Anthony Gose to nab 40 steals in my 10 bold predictions — so he’s obviously a lock to do so, amirite — but I’ll elaborate a bit more. I love his speed potential and I see Jake Marisnick in a very similar way.
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Depth chart discussions are in full swing. We are analyzing each team’s infield, outfield, rotation and bullpen components in separate segments. Catch up on the discussions here.

I don’t know how analyze the Cardinals’ outfield in a way that properly acknowledges the significant role the Cardinals’ carved out for Oscar Taveras without marginalizing or trivializing his life and talent nor condoning the cause of his passing. His sudden death shocked the baseball community and left a gaping hole in the St. Louis outfield. Unfortunately, there’s a lot we’ll never know about Taveras, the budding superstar who never was — or, perhaps more accurately, never got to be.

* * *

With the departures of Carlos Beltran and Allen Craig, and with Matt Adams employed full-time at first base, the St. Louis outfield looks thin. But the Cards have a pair of prospects ready to contribute at the Major League level (or close to it), both of whom will likely assume full-time roles in the next couple of years. Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ regulars, barring injury, will assume the lion’s share of the starting duties and produce enough offensive and defensive value to warrant their lack of depth — if they stay healthy, that is, and that’s a big “if.”

Left Field: Matt Holliday (Age 35)
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Depth chart discussions are in full swing. We are analyzing each team’s infield, outfield, rotation and bullpen components in separate segments. Catch up on the discussions here.

A couple of weeks ago, I highlighted the 10 most “MLB-ready” AAA outfield prospects based on a variety of requirements about which you can read if you click through. The idea was to ignore any kind of prospect labels and strictly let the statistics and hitters’ ages tell the story.

The list is by no means definitive, but Pirates outfielders assumed four of the 10 spots. Their projections weren’t necessarily rosy — they may all end up being bench pieces at best, for all we know — but it doesn’t negate the fact that they may be ready to positively contribute at the Major League level in some capacity. Toss into the mix top prospect Austin Meadows farther down the organizational ladder and it becomes clear that Pittsburgh has enough outfield depth throughout its system to support an ensemble cast that should be together for years to come.

Left Field: Starling Marte (Age 26)
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If opportunity knocks, then Steven Souza is pounding on your door while calling your phone and blowing up your email inbox. I almost included Souza in my 10 bold predictions, but I believe he warrants more than just a quick blurb there.

Traded to the Tampa Bay Rays from the blocked off outfield of the Washington Nationals this off-season, Souza figures to be a staple in either corner for his new club. Now entering his age-26 season, Souza appears to be poised for an under-the-radar impact fantasy season. His skill set — plus playing time — make him a likely four category player. For two consecutive seasons he has nabbed at least 25 steals without being caught more than seven times and hit for at least 15 home runs.
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It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.

On the one hand, the Angels outfield is almost guaranteed to be among the best in the league. However, depth is an issue now that Josh Hamilton’s future is in question. If Mike Trout lands on the disabled list – and it will eventually happen – the entire club could go from the division favorite to fighting for a Wild Card berth.

With David Wiers rambling about spirit animals on a daily basis, I’d be remiss if I didn’t point out the animal theme of this outfield. Trout’s the easy one, but then there is Hamilton and Cowgill. Calhoun is a ‘D’ away from participating. Anywho, let’s dig in.

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An unambiguously true fact: Matt Holliday is an old man in baseball years and in dog years. Another unambiguously true fact: Holliday has been remarkably consistent throughout his career. Hear ye:

• He has hit at least 20 home runs in nine straight years, a streak currently matched only by David Ortiz and Miguel Cabrera;
• His walk rate has hovered between 10 and 12 percent for the better part of a decade, and his strikeout rate has always resided in the mid-teens;
• He has averaged 647 plate appearances per season dating back to 2006;
• And honestly, I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a batted ball profile so absurdly consistent.

Yet a slight dip in power and a career-worst batting average (.272, aka what some players can only dream of hitting) in 2014 couldn’t have come at a worse age, and it all has fans and projection systems alike running for the hills, as shown below.
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