Taylor was one of 16 players with at least 14 HR and 16 SB in 2015. The group included luminaries like Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, Manny Machado, Mookie Betts, and Ryan Braun and obviously Taylor’s inclusion doesn’t mean he’s destined to reach their heights. In fact, his .640 OPS was easily the lowest of the bunch (Brett Gardner .742) and it netted a 72 OPS+, 30 points lower than second-worst (Charlie Blackmon 102).

Working in his favor is the fact that Taylor was just a rookie and second-youngest by age at 24 (third-youngest overall as Machado and Betts were both 22) so his deficiencies are understandable. Plus, he played just 20 games at Triple-A before reaching the majors. The biggest difference in Taylor’s game compared to the entire rest of the group is that he strikes out a ton. His 31% strikeout rate was the highest of the 16 players and Justin Upton was the only other one to top 25%. The swing-and-miss wasn’t new for Taylor, he had a 25% rate in 2189 minor league PA.

I’d feel much better about a 2016 breakout if he didn’t whiff so much, but let’s see if there are reasons for optimism.

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When I wrote about Paul Goldschmidt earlier in the offseason, part of my analysis focused on when he would be available in the first round. I assumed Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and Clayton Kershaw would absorb the first three picks, leaving Goldy as the consensus fourth overall selection. However, there are a handful of players I could justify taking ahead of Goldschmidt. His teammate, A.J. Pollock, is one of them.

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When the 2013 season ended, Jay Bruce was 26 and coming off of three straight 30-homer seasons. Sure, he struck out a bit much, and had some issues defensively, but he was a young man in his prime, a bankable asset, an easy way to inject power into your lineup. Since then, he’s slashed .222/.288/.406 with 22 homers per 600 plate appearances over two seasons.

What happened?

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For the first time this year, I decided to compare my Pod Projections to Steamer and discuss the players we disagreed on most. Of the hitters we both projected, it was clear I was much more optimistic than Steamer on the whole. However, for Giancarlo Stanton I was actually significantly more pessimistic.

In the review of this series, I will be including my original Pod Projection and Steamer counting stat projections extrapolated over the same number of plate appearances that I had projected. However, I included Steamer’s actual PA projection in that column. Also included are the player’s 2015 stats, plus the counting stats extrapolated over the number of PA I projected.

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Bryce Harper finally did it. It was over five years ago when he was drafted #1 overall by the Nationals. This past season, the 22-year-old became the top fantasy player with one of the best seasons ever. He will not even be 25 next season, so the only direction he can is up, right? Actually, it’s better to tap the brakes on the Harper love, especially when it comes to his power.

Let’s start with a few facts on Harper everyone should know:

1. He is young.
2. He was probably the most hyped hitting prospect ever.
3. He had a great 2015 season.

In an early industry draft, Harper was taken #1 overall. Even with the above facts, I just can’t take him #1 for two reasons.

Reason #1: Mike Trout Read the rest of this entry »

It’s outfield week here at RotoGraphs, so I’ll begin the festivities by reviewing my preseason Pod’s Picks at the position. Every year after the RotoGraphs consensus positional rankings are published, I compare my column of ranks to a recalculated consensus after excluding mine. It’s a fun little activity and it allows me to figure out why I might be more bullish or bearish on a particular player than the rest of the crew.

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The 2015 fantasy baseball season has come to a close, so it is time to look back at the season past and determine which players were the most valuable at each position. After moving our way through the infield, we roll around in the green grass of the outfield.

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Earlier today, we published my conversation with Joey Votto about aging, and within the post is a graph that didn’t necessarily fit the narrative but should contain an interesting tidbit for we fantasy players.

Take a look at this graph again, except instead of looking towards the end of the graph where the old guys are hanging out, look at the beginning of the graph. Under 25, it looks like hitters with pull percentages under 45% have a little more growth left in them than their pull-heavy counterparts.

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The storybook narratives of 2015 do not limit themselves to the Mets or the Twins or the Rangers or the Astros. Surprises abound each year, usually in the form of a former prospect who finally hit his stride or a journeyman Minor Leaguer who catches lightning in a bottle. Perhaps they’re more surprising, then, when they come from seemingly established players.

For example, Bryce Harper finally evolved into the Bryce Harper of prophecies’ past, basically hitting twice as many home runs as projected. Except the evolution happened, like, two or three or seven years sooner than expected. I don’t know when it was supposed to happen, but surely it wasn’t supposed to happen at 22 years old.

And Carlos Gonzalez, at 29, has hit a career-high 37 home runs, a healthy dozen-or-so more than any of his previous four seasons — all after having arguably the worst April of his career (rivaling 2011).

I’m thankful the Tigers traded Yoenis Cespedes into the National League so I can write about the dude now. Aside from Matthew Kory’s assessment of Cespedes’ chances to win a Most Valuable Player (MVP) award two weeks ago, we have pointed little attention to how Cespedes earned his way into MVP discussions in the first place. The injustice ends here.

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Disclaimer: Yesterday, the author wrote the words organized below. This morning, a doctor person surgically repaired the author’s faulty body. During the day, he will rest in bed, likely incapacitated, lest he be tempted to incoherently, and probably embarrassingly, address your comments. He apologizes for the inconvenience this delay in correspondence may cause.

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Unless you’re in a year-long roto league — or, wait, are there year-long points leagues? Is that a thing? — you’re probably neck deep in playoffs. Maybe some of you are vying for the championship. Maybe some of you are trying to avoid last place and a sexy calendar photoshoot as punishment for it, as I just successfully did last week.

The RotoGraphs staff has published several pieces recently focusing on waiver wire finds to help your playoff push. For roto leagues specifically, we’ve reached a point where a couple weeks’ worth of standard performance may not affect runs, runs batted in (RBI) or batting average, but a sudden burst of home runs of stolen bases can make all the difference.

After digging through the scrap heap, I found yet more players (strictly National League outfielders, mind you) that can help owners trying to catch lightning in a bottle. However, some the following names could also help in shallower leagues and are worth keeping in mind as dynasty or keeper considerations.

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