When Max Kepler hit three home runs on Monday, we could have just lauded him with a “Gut gemacht” and “Bravo!” and a slap on the ass. But we fantasy few need to know if he’s going to keep out-producing his power projections like he has been. So we jump into the deeper stats to try and tell how sustainable this power is.

We could easily take Andrew Perpetua’s xStats approach and bucket all balls in play, look at what results certain exit velocities and launch angles have had in those buckets, and apply those buckets to Kepler’s results. Then we’d know that Kepler has an expected slugging percentage of .369 based on his launch angles and exit velocities. We could say “entschuldigung,” apologize, and be on our way.

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It once again is time for the monthly update for my AL Outfield Tiers! As always, these are my rest of the season ranks for the position and you can check out my previous versions below as well as Alex Chamberlain’s NL versions. Read the rest of this entry »

No, your computer screen hasn’t frozen from several weeks ago, nor is FanGraphs on repeat. Instead, I’m double dipping, reiterating two recommendations I have made over the past month.

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I only have one recommendation for you today, folks. I’d love to write a second but sometimes it’s best not to force the issue. Not that there aren’t worthy players out there to consider. But sometimes, what’s out there just isn’t all that compelling and just because you can make an argument in favor of something doesn’t always mean you should. I’m talking to you, Jim Cramer. So without further ado, let’s talk a little Mac Williamson (1% Yahoo, 1.1%ESPN, 3% CBS).

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In looking through the largest discrepancies between in game production and my various xStats, namely xOBA, I noticed that four of the largest differences come from the Yankees. Disturbingly, these are in the negative direction, meaning xStats are making a claim that these four Yankees are playing over their head and are due for a regression. Who are these Yankees? Didi Gregorius, Carlos Beltran, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Brett Gardner.

Three left handed hitters and a switch hitter playing in Yankee stadium, a ballpark geared for left handed production. On first blush, you might scoff and claim the stats aren’t accounting for the ballpark, these guys are probably benefiting from the short porch. Yes, they likely are benefiting to some degree from the short right field fence, but last season didn’t seem to have this problem with the xStats from these four batters.

The All-Star break is a time to furiously send trade offers before those bottom half teams check out, or at least try to entice them back to their computers for one last look at their teams so that they might help you improve yours. But we’re all in different types of leagues, so instead of a few mixed-league buy low players, I thought I would try to dream up some buy-low players for every situation. I won’t cover all of you, that’s impossible with the proliferation of fantasy baseball styles these days, but maybe I’ll cover more of you.

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Previous rankings:
March/April (Preseason)
May
June

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To this day, I think I don’t fully understand what y’all want. With these monthly rankings, do you want end-of-season rankings or rest-of-season rankings? For the record, given we just eclipsed the halfway point of the season, end-of-season rankings would equally weight players’ first and second halves. Rest-of-season ranking, meanwhile, would unequally weight a player’s second half in favor of his first half. First-half performance informs second-half rankings, but more in the sense that “regression will hit this guy hard” and so on.

I ask because, man, y’all rip into us pretty good with these rankings sometimes. And I know I’ve failed to adequately communicate my criteria for ranking particular players a given way because I simply don’t have enough words or time.

With that said, I will provide for you here rest-of-season rankings for National League outfielders, complete with anticipated regression and all that. Tiers will be named in order of my favorite Every Time I Die albums, which is totally not obscure in any way. Enjoy! (Or not.)

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Small sample sizes be damned! OK, not really. But today we take a look at two players who, in very limited playing time, have made us (or should make us) look twice and dig just a little deeper.  Read the rest of this entry »

Back in March, I made some bold predictions, as all RotoGraphs staff do. Some bold predictions I make simply for the sake of being bold. Or for the sake of making a prediction. One of the two. But I don’t have a vested interest in my predictions, mostly because (1) they typically suck and (2) I don’t own many, if any, shares of the subjects of my predictions (because, well, the predictions suck). It’s kind of like not putting your money where your mouth is.

In this case, I absolutely have a vested interest in Jose Ramirez. Chris Mitchell and I both hold a special place in our hearts for him. I’ve come to realize, in my years of watching and loving baseball, that I most appreciate the hitters who are (debatably) underappreciated contact hitters. Victor Martinez. Pre-breakout Daniel Murphy. Nick Markakis. Martin Prado. Reggie Willits???

Speaking of Prado, Ramirez looks like peak Prado right now, and in more ways than one:

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It once again is time for the monthly update for my AL Outfield Tiers! As always, these are my rest of the season ranks for the position and you can check out my previous versions below as well as Alex Chamberlain’s NL versions. Read the rest of this entry »