The Change: Max Kepler and Statcast Power Comps

When Max Kepler hit three home runs on Monday, we could have just lauded him with a “Gut gemacht” and “Bravo!” and a slap on the ass. But we fantasy few need to know if he’s going to keep out-producing his power projections like he has been. So we jump into the deeper stats to try and tell how sustainable this power is.

We could easily take Andrew Perpetua’s xStats approach and bucket all balls in play, look at what results certain exit velocities and launch angles have had in those buckets, and apply those buckets to Kepler’s results. Then we’d know that Kepler has an expected slugging percentage of .369 based on his launch angles and exit velocities. We could say “entschuldigung,” apologize, and be on our way.

But those buckets can create some problems. Almost any way of picking the buckets can insert subjectivity and perhaps error. Those stats are amazing, but what happens when we remove the buckets and look more generally? We still want to see the impact of ideal launch angles and exit velocity, but perhaps with bigger samples from each player, a bigger bucket if you will.

I thought I would try to find a comp or three for Max Kepler, so I gathered all the players with at least 100 balls in play, and listed their average launch angle, average exit velocity, average exit velocity in power angles (20-40 degrees), and percentage of balls driven in those ideal launch angles. By grouping guys slightly above and below Kepler in each category, I hoped to find a few names that were similar to him in these respects. There is only one true comp, but I fudged the list to include a few more.

Yonder Alonso is his best power comp, since Alonso basically matches him in all respects and even hits the ball harder in angles other than the power angles. Nobody else on this list has that same quirk as Kepler, and only 70 of the 318 players in the sample shared it.

Unfortunately for unser hervorragender Junge, Kepler is not in the best surroundings for power output. Just eyeballing this list, you might give him a slugging percentage around .400 and 15 or so home runs. Chase Utley’s 18 home runs in 2013 is the high water mark for this group, and in the last three years, nobody has topped 13 home runs (other than Kepler with 14 this year). Kepler can still put on more muscle — he’s only 23 year old and people think he has the frame to add a bit — but right now, this is where he belongs.

Carlos Pena had nice things to say about young Kepler, which should help us refocus in keeper leagues and remember that sometimes people grow into their ‘luck.’ He obviously has a nice swing.

But when it comes to this year, we may want to be a little skeptical.

Here are a couple more players outproducing their power, and their comps.

Michael Saunders
Saunders told me he eliminated part of his load in order to be shorter to the ball, and that this adjustment, plus sustained health, has been the biggest part of his power outburst this year. He’s already matched his career seasonal high in home runs, and his isolated power right now is almost a hundred points above his career level. Even though he has almost the same exact percentage of balls in ideal angles as Kepler (26.5 vs 26.4%), and is hitting the ball exactly as hard as Kepler in all angles (91.7 mph), Saunders is more like other hitters and is hitting the ball harder in the ideal angles, and that separates him from Kepler. Saunder’s comps are therefore more exciting: Stephen Piscotty, Victor Martinez, and Joey Votto form the backbone of his grouping. There’s some downside — Melvin Upton Jr., Logan Forsythe, and Kole Calhoun are also similar — but it’s a decent group, and one that suggests he can keep up a 25-homer pace going forward.

Jay Bruce
Bruce has a top-fifteen percentage of balls in power angles, and that alone makes him a good bet to keep it up. But his xSLG is still nearly 80 points worse than his current number, and that sort of regression would take him back to his career norms. So, is he a league leading power guy, or more of a decent power guy? His comps say that maybe he can keep it up: Miguel Cabrera, Freddie Freeman, Lucas Duda, Matt Kemp, and Kyle Seager are his best comps at least. The nice thing is that his swing has loft, but doesn’t have the same average launch angle as guys that hit a lot of pop-ups, like Brandon Moss, Chris Davis, and Brian McCann. Bruce may slow down a bit, but he’s doing everything right to continue a 30+ home run pace.

Carlos Beltran
Currently sporting the best isolated slugging percentage since he was 30, the 39-year-old Beltran has seen a resurgence this year. Now he’s moving to an even better ballpark and lineup. Those factors make him relevant in all leagues, but has he been lucky so far? Probably. His best comp, and actually nearly a perfect comp across the board, is Bryce Harper, but these days that’s not as great a thing as we would have once supposed, since Harper is struggling along with a more terrestrial .209 ISO. And the rest of the comps are decidedly less optimistic — Addison Russell, Aledmys Diaz, Yasmany Tomas, Yangervis Solarte and Gregory Polanco all have power, but none of them are currently 30+ homer types. Beltran could easily regress in the power department despite his move.