Champions League B, an Ottoneu league in which all owners must have previously won an Ottoneu league, had its inaugural auction draft last weekend. First-year auction drafts are compelling and informative, especially when the league is made up of skilled and experienced owners. Theoretically, in first-year auctions, all players should be purchased at or near their actual value. There shouldn’t be too much obvious surplus or too many colossal overpays.

Bargain hunting is a delicate endeavor in a first-year auction. Owners can hunt for potential bargains by targeting players coming off down seasons. Andrew McCutchen comes to mind. So does Yasiel Puig. Buying such players can be risky, because their recent poor play may be indicative of future performance. However, it can also be rewarding, because if the player bounces back he may return more value than his price warrants. Having so-called surplus assets is one of several keys to success in Ottoneu.

McCutchen and Puig saw their value decline because of uncharacteristically poor performance on the field. Another type of player to target when searching for surplus is players coming off injuries. Two specific examples are among the most compelling and potentially undervalued fantasy assets in the game. They’re the same age (29), and they play on the same team. They have remarkably similar career numbers and both had season-ending injuries in 2016. Below are the career totals for underrated co-stars A.J. Pollock and David Peralta: Read the rest of this entry »

Here’s the coldest take ever: Mike Trout should be the top pick in this year’s fantasy baseball drafts. Only slightly more lukewarm is the opinion that Mookie Betts should go second. That is the consensus among drafters in Yahoo, CBS and NFBC leagues, as well as among industry experts, according to the data compiled by FantasyPros. Jose Altuve is generally considered to be the best choice for the third pick, though Yahoo drafters are waiting until the sixth pick on average to snag the Astros’ second baseman.

If I wind up with the second overall pick in any of my upcoming drafts, I won’t be taking Betts, and I don’t think you should either. Betts did outearn Altuve (and everyone else) in Roto value a year ago, but if we take a closer look at how Betts got the top spot, it’s clear that he won’t be as likely to outgain either Trout or Altuve in value. If I can’t have Trout this year, then Altuve will be the next best thing.

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Jose Peraza’s prospect hype seemed to have stalled after a rough 2015 campaign. He had a rough offensive season at triple-A for the Braves that year and then was included in a package for Hector Oliviera at the deadline when, presumably, the Braves started to look at Peraza more as a utility player than a regular middle infielder. Peraza was on the move again a few months later and, based on his usage at triple-A and in the Majors, it seemed like the Reds were ready to roll Peraza out in that super utility role. That thought seemed to be furthered by the Reds acquisition of Dilson Herrera at last year’s trade deadline.
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The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

2017 Pod Projections Index:
Lance McCullers

Today, I’ll dive into the first hitter to receive the exciting 2017 Pod Projection treatment. David Dahl thrilled us during his debut last year, showing power (.185 ISO), speed (7.7 Spd score, five steals), and batting average ability (.315). That’s literally everything we want as fantasy owners. Of course, let’s not ignore the fact that he required an absurd .404 BABIP to reach that impressive batting average mark. That said, he plays half his games at Coors Field, so perhaps his average has some staying power. Early 2017 NFBC drafters are already falling over each other to roster him, selecting him as the 22nd outfielder off the board (just before Matt Kemp, Khris Davis, and Adam Jones), and 91st overall. WOWZERS! That’s some serious love.

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Yesterday, I used my Way Too Early rankings and our RotoGraphs outfield rankings to discuss my five biggest deviations from consensus. The comments were just a tad grumpy about my decision to focus on the Mitch Hanigers and Lonnie Chisenhalls of the world. Let it be said that I’m a man of the people. Here are five more deviations from consensus – this time focused on stars*.

*Loosely defined…

To me, these are the interesting players to discuss. I’m so tired of writing about Andrew McCutchen (spoiler, I’ll be writing about McCutchen). I’m going to let somebody else draft McCutchen this year. I’m not inclined to take the risk. My ranking reflects that decision. I can elaborate, but it’ll be tedious. You ready?

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In case you somehow missed it, our RotoGraphs February rankings series has begun with outfielders. I’m here today to discuss my five biggest deviations from the consensus. I’ve disqualified a few players like Avisail Garcia, who I’ve been saying is terrible for the last half decade. Unsurprisingly, I still won’t be picking him.

These five players should be more relevant. I listed my rank, the RotoGraphs consensus, and my Way Too Early Outfielders ranking.

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Welcome to the kickoff of our 2017 rankings. We’re going position by position this week and next with our initial roll out of rankings. We will update these in March based on Spring Training activity and injuries.

We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league. If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments. We can also be reached via Twitter:

• Paul Sporer
• Jeff Zimmerman
• Mike Podhorzer
• Brad Johnson
• Justin Mason
• Al Melchior

There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?! Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. The chart is sortable.

If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1.

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The fantasy community is down on Justin Upton. I get it, but it’s a little strange to me given our collective penchant for recency bias. Upton had a monster second half and finished the season an almost-perfect replica of his usual self. (The operative qualifier being “almost.” We’ll get to that in a second.) Sure, it was a rocky year, but hey, Joey Votto had one, too. Dude was batting .213 with a 27 percent strikeout rate (K%) through May…

Right, so Upton was an almost-perfect replica of himself. In a vacuum, his production looks nearly identical to his typical annual accomplishment, down to nearly every statistic except for his batting average on balls in play (BABIP). In my investigation of his woes, I noticed his uncharacteristically low infield hit rate (IFH%). Here’s a list of hitters with higher infield hit rates than Justin Upton in 2016:

• Salvador Perez
• Kendrys Morales
• Albert Pujols
• One hundred and thirty five other players not surnamed Ortiz, Mauer, Seager, Granderson, Cabrera, Votto or Kemp

Yes, Upton ranked among the bottom 6 percent of hitters in terms of infield hits. If there’s a single bone to pick about Upton’s season — well, aside from the insane volatility — it’s that his BABIP failed to get back on track, continuing to linger at a league-average mark. It seems a trend has emerged; accordingly, it’s easy to accept said trend as a new normal, as a resignation of Upton’s fifth tool.

I’m here to make the classic* Infield Hit Rate Defense, or IHRD, as it’s known in the infield hit community.**

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Jay Bruce has become a bit of conundrum for the Mets and their almost ludicrously deep corner outfield depth. They have Curtis Granderson, Michael Conforto, and Jay Bruce as their starting right fielders, plus Cespedes patrolling left field. Juan Lagares is their lone center fielder, although he’s going to have to wait in line for playing time. Oh, and Brandon Nimmo is waiting on the wings down in AAA.  Of these, Granderson, Conforto, Bruce, and Nimmo are left handed batters, so we’re talking about four left handed corner outfielders. Whether you wish to consider Lagares a starting center fielder or not is a bit irrelevant here, because one of the corner outfielders will, probably, move to center.  Granderson, most likely, perhaps Conforto on occasion.

The Mets took on Bruce’s 13 million dollar option early in the offseason with the clear intent to trade him. Some may claim the Mets held onto him as insurance in case the Mets lost Cespedes to free agency, but that doesn’t appear to hold much water. Without Cespedes, their starting outfield would be Conforto in left, Granderson in center, and Bruce in right.  Three left handed corner outfielders patrolling the outfield.  Granted, the Mets have some flexibility in the infield, since both Walker and Cabrera are switch hitters, but David Wright would be the only dedicated right handed batter in the lineup, an untenable position.  It appears trading Bruce was a focus this off season, which has not gone well and the team has now settled on tentatively naming him the starting right fielder.

Much has been written about the various factors limiting Bruce’s value on the market, ranging from his weak defensive skill to the host of alternatives on the market. I’m not going to get into either of those topics, instead I want to delve into the offensive merit of Jay Bruce, and the various changes to his batted ball profiles over the span of his career. Read the rest of this entry »

Outfield deserved two parts given its depth so we’re diving into part two today. There has been some shifting right around my cutoff point (50th OF) so keep in mind that I’m discussing their average draft slot at the time of writing. In fact, the first guy I’m mentioning today was actually at 52 when I did part one, but he has jumped up to 50.

Previous Editions:

• C/1B
• 2B/SS
• 3B
• OF Pt. 1

OUTFIELD

• Eric Thames (pick 212) returns from an obscenely successful run in Korea during which he averaged 40 HR and 20 SB a year with a .348/.463/.720 line including a 47 HR/40 SB/1.288 OPS season in 2015.
• Projections throughout the industry are very aggressive on Thames with his being the rare case where Fans are lowest on him, but even if he “only” reached their level (.264 AVG/24 HR/6 SB) it’d be a nice season and well worth his average draft cost, though a big spring will cause his price to surge.

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