As Paul Sporer noted last week, stolen bases are getting expensive in this year’s drafts. With players like Jose Peraza and Jarrod Dyson shooting up draft boards, it’s clear that fantasy owners are more than willing to pay for steals in 2017.

Personally, there is nothing I love more than a good bargain. I spent a good two minutes doing price comparisons on hot dog buns at the grocery store yesterday, before finding some off-brand buns for just 89 cents on the bottom shelf. I don’t care who you are, you don’t need to be spending big on hot dog buns.

This is the same approach I take to speed-only players in fantasy baseball (great transition, Scott). I don’t like to spend on speedsters in my leagues, partially because I know steals are probably going to be available on the waiver wire. There’s usually a handful of undrafted bench players or minor leaguers who end up swiping a significant number of bags.

Last year, Travis Jankowski stole 30 bases in 383 plate appearances. Keon Broxton swiped 23 in 244 PA. Dyson was another example, stealing 30 bases in his 337 PA. The aforementioned Peraza picked up 21 steals in 256 trips to the plate. It’s no coincidence that Dyson, Peraza and Broxton were the top three players Sporer mentioned last week when discussing rising ADPs.

I got to thinking about who those guys will be next year; the players who go undrafted in fantasy leagues this year, but end up in high demand in 2018 due to gaudy smallish-sample steal totals. I identified three players to keep an eye on for steals as the season progresses, or perhaps slot into a reserve or minor-league spot, if your league has those.

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The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

2017 Pod Projections Index:
Lance McCullers
David Dahl
Keon Broxton

Last night, I needed some inspiration. Who would be tomorrow’s Pod Projection? So I asked my Twitter followers and received a slew of options. Ultimately, I landed on a player I never considered for this honor and was “voted” on by just one tweeter. Trea Turner was so good last season over just 324 plate appearances that he finished 12th in value among second basemen. He essentially matched Ben Zobrist’s value in only about half the plate appearances!

And while we throw the term sample size around all the time and stress the importance of concepts like regression, fantasy owners are closing their ears and yelling lalalalala, because they love their Trea and there’s nothing you could do about it. He’s being selected 10th overall on average in NFBC drafts and has even apparently gone first overall, while he also holds an ADP of 13.5 in Fantrax drafts. Are fantasy owners nuts or is this not a repeat case of Carlos Correa and overvaluing a small sample?

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Maybe it’s shiny-new-toy syndrome. Perhaps it’s the poor batting average (.246 last year and .224 through 1,099 plate appearances in the Majors). It could also be a sizable platoon split that’s resulted in limited opportunities to date against southpaws. Whatever the reason or reasons, Joc Pederson’s ADP in NFBC drafts is just outside of pick 200 (201.95), and he’s barely cracking the top-50 outfielders selected (47th).

At his current cost, the soon-to-be 25-year-old outfielder has to merely repeat his 2016 production to deliver on his ADP after ranking as the 44th most valuable outfielder last year. It seems crazy that his ADP doesn’t bake in any potential improvement, and there are reasons beyond his youth to buy into major gains being made by the center fielder in 2017. Read the rest of this entry »

The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

2017 Pod Projections Index:
Lance McCullers
David Dahl

Who would make for the perfect hitter to be Pod Projected? The one with the biggest difference between the Fans and Depth Chart projections, of course!

Biggest diff between fans & depth charts:
1) Broxton
2) CSeager
3) TimA
4) Drury
5) CHernandez
6) Yoan
7) Eaton
8) GaryS
9) Bryant
10) Votto

— Eno Sarris (@enosarris) February 28, 2017

The Fans projections are notoriously bullish, but sometimes they rightly believe in a breakout, whereas the projection systems are programmed to forecast severe regression. Keon Broxton is no Spring chicken and is already 26 heading into the 2017 season. But he got his first chance to play regularly last season and made the most of it by posting a .343 wOBA, displaying both power and speed, excellent plate patience, and playing fabulous defense. Naturally, everyone is skeptical, though the Fans are far less so than Steamer and ZiPS. What about the Pod Projections, you ask? Let’s find out!

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Champions League B, an Ottoneu league in which all owners must have previously won an Ottoneu league, had its inaugural auction draft last weekend. First-year auction drafts are compelling and informative, especially when the league is made up of skilled and experienced owners. Theoretically, in first-year auctions, all players should be purchased at or near their actual value. There shouldn’t be too much obvious surplus or too many colossal overpays.

Bargain hunting is a delicate endeavor in a first-year auction. Owners can hunt for potential bargains by targeting players coming off down seasons. Andrew McCutchen comes to mind. So does Yasiel Puig. Buying such players can be risky, because their recent poor play may be indicative of future performance. However, it can also be rewarding, because if the player bounces back he may return more value than his price warrants. Having so-called surplus assets is one of several keys to success in Ottoneu.

McCutchen and Puig saw their value decline because of uncharacteristically poor performance on the field. Another type of player to target when searching for surplus is players coming off injuries. Two specific examples are among the most compelling and potentially undervalued fantasy assets in the game. They’re the same age (29), and they play on the same team. They have remarkably similar career numbers and both had season-ending injuries in 2016. Below are the career totals for underrated co-stars A.J. Pollock and David Peralta: Read the rest of this entry »

Here’s the coldest take ever: Mike Trout should be the top pick in this year’s fantasy baseball drafts. Only slightly more lukewarm is the opinion that Mookie Betts should go second. That is the consensus among drafters in Yahoo, CBS and NFBC leagues, as well as among industry experts, according to the data compiled by FantasyPros. Jose Altuve is generally considered to be the best choice for the third pick, though Yahoo drafters are waiting until the sixth pick on average to snag the Astros’ second baseman.

If I wind up with the second overall pick in any of my upcoming drafts, I won’t be taking Betts, and I don’t think you should either. Betts did outearn Altuve (and everyone else) in Roto value a year ago, but if we take a closer look at how Betts got the top spot, it’s clear that he won’t be as likely to outgain either Trout or Altuve in value. If I can’t have Trout this year, then Altuve will be the next best thing.

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Jose Peraza’s prospect hype seemed to have stalled after a rough 2015 campaign. He had a rough offensive season at triple-A for the Braves that year and then was included in a package for Hector Oliviera at the deadline when, presumably, the Braves started to look at Peraza more as a utility player than a regular middle infielder. Peraza was on the move again a few months later and, based on his usage at triple-A and in the Majors, it seemed like the Reds were ready to roll Peraza out in that super utility role. That thought seemed to be furthered by the Reds acquisition of Dilson Herrera at last year’s trade deadline.
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The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

2017 Pod Projections Index:
Lance McCullers

Today, I’ll dive into the first hitter to receive the exciting 2017 Pod Projection treatment. David Dahl thrilled us during his debut last year, showing power (.185 ISO), speed (7.7 Spd score, five steals), and batting average ability (.315). That’s literally everything we want as fantasy owners. Of course, let’s not ignore the fact that he required an absurd .404 BABIP to reach that impressive batting average mark. That said, he plays half his games at Coors Field, so perhaps his average has some staying power. Early 2017 NFBC drafters are already falling over each other to roster him, selecting him as the 22nd outfielder off the board (just before Matt Kemp, Khris Davis, and Adam Jones), and 91st overall. WOWZERS! That’s some serious love.

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Yesterday, I used my Way Too Early rankings and our RotoGraphs outfield rankings to discuss my five biggest deviations from consensus. The comments were just a tad grumpy about my decision to focus on the Mitch Hanigers and Lonnie Chisenhalls of the world. Let it be said that I’m a man of the people. Here are five more deviations from consensus – this time focused on stars*.

*Loosely defined…

To me, these are the interesting players to discuss. I’m so tired of writing about Andrew McCutchen (spoiler, I’ll be writing about McCutchen). I’m going to let somebody else draft McCutchen this year. I’m not inclined to take the risk. My ranking reflects that decision. I can elaborate, but it’ll be tedious. You ready?

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In case you somehow missed it, our RotoGraphs February rankings series has begun with outfielders. I’m here today to discuss my five biggest deviations from the consensus. I’ve disqualified a few players like Avisail Garcia, who I’ve been saying is terrible for the last half decade. Unsurprisingly, I still won’t be picking him.

These five players should be more relevant. I listed my rank, the RotoGraphs consensus, and my Way Too Early Outfielders ranking.

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