Updating the Outfielders
During the season, we will update these rankings based on new information which will hopefully help you determine good trade targets and stay on top of each position. This week, we’ll take a look at some springs so you can see who is on a roll going into the season.
The Top Targets:
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee (.405 wOBA)
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles NL (.367 wOBA)
Justin Upton, Arizona (.388 wOBA)
Grady Sizemore, Cleveland (.343 wOBA)
Matt Holliday, St. Louis (.390 wOBA)
There’s not enough news here to justify moving players around, but there are a couple things to mention. Justin Upton sprained his ankle last week and got dropped on some draft boards because of some early speculation that it might dampen his speed. Well, all he missed was one game and he’s currently hitting .366/.456/.714 and is a John Dewan candidate for a ‘breakout’ season because of that slugging percentage. If last year wasn’t his breakout season, you’re looking at a perennial top-five player in fantasy baseball. Upton’s also been the subject of some speculation and comparison over at TMI (insider), FWIW (LOL OMG).
It’s also worth mentioning that it’s ‘All Systems Go’ for Grady’s Ladies in the Cleveland bleachers this year. The good-looking coffee-cup-wearing outfielder they love so much is batting .378/.521/.595 with two stolen bases (against no caught stealings). A healthy year will remind people why Sizemore was a first round pick in the past, and one year he’ll have a lucky BABIP year and have a great batting average to boot.
The Next Best Thing:
Jason Bay, New York NL (.397 wOBA)
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston (.354 wOBA)
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay (.367 wOBA)
Jayson Werth, Philadelphia (.382 wOBA)
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle (.369 wOBA)
Adam Lind, Toronto (.394 wOBA)
Nick Markakis, Baltimore (.349 wOBA)
Adam Lind’s skeptics might point to his poor spring (.214/.267/.429) as a sign that Lind won’t repeat his strong 2009, but it’s early going. He didn’t always put up .200+ ISOs in the minor leagues, and perhaps one could use that as evidence that his power is suspect. That camp can walk back his power projections, but I prefer to split the difference and like CHONE as the ‘floor’ projection (.293/.350/.502) despite the poor spring. Really, it’s only forty at-bats.
The Leftovers:
Josh Hamilton, Texas (.321 wOBA)
Curtis Granderson, New York AL (.340wOBA)
Nelson Cruz, Texas (.368 wOBA)
Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles NL (.396 wOBA)
B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay (.310 wOBA)
Andre Ethier, Los Angeles NL (.370 wOBA)
Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland (.389 wOBA)
Because of his hot spring (.420/.455/.700), Josh Hamilton could be on the cusp of joining the group ahead of him. Maybe – if only he hadn’t suffered from two injuries in the spring. It is, of course, the injuries that keep people from drafting Hamilton. The good news is that these injuries probably could not have been avoided. Madison Bumgarner hit Hamilton in the hand, and he only missed a couple games with a hand contusion because it was only Madison Bumgarner (badum-ching!). Then Hamilton got a toothache. It seems ridiculous to type these words, but Hamilton’s got a litany of injuries that seem just as bizarre and it all adds up to something. Maybe. I’d focus on the nice spring numbers and draft him low for a bounce-back season.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Choo behind Markakais and even Sizemore? What scoring system do you play?
I would personally put Markakis right behind Choo in third tier, but these are aggregate rankings so I’ll respect the group for a while (I’m sure my biases will gradually affect the rankings). This is supposed to be 5×5 roto, and I feel comfortable putting a 30×30 guy that far over a 20×20 guy even if the 20×20 guy has the better batting average. (Choo/Markakis at the top of Tier 3 for me prolly)
Also, Granderson has no business being listed in the same tier with Choo.
I averaged THT, PECOTA and FANS and have Choo, Granderson and Markakis worth $17, 16 and 16 respectively. I don’t think the rankings above are crazy in any respect even if just a little off.
Shin-Soo Choo CLE RF $17 0.292 91 93 20 15
Curtis Granderson NYY CF $17 0.268 93 89 28 17
Nick Markakis BAL RF $16 0.299 90 91 20 9
I’d rather have Granderson of the three (versus Choo or Markakis), but they’re so close in value that it’s not worth getting in a tizz over being ranked a slot or two behind someone.
It’s like power rankings of MLB/NFL teams, or even the ongoing series of organizational rankings on this website – people whine that team ABC is ranked 12th with a record of 9-7 but team XYZ, ranked 13th, is 10-6!! How can this be?!?!? THE INJUSTICE OF IT ALL!!!
I mean…really. If that’s all there is to complain about in the world – two very similar teams being possibly misranked by a single position in a poll that means nothing, then…life is swell!
Wrong JayCee. I am not a fan of the Yankees or Indians so I have no dog in the fight, but Granderson absolutely belongs with Choo. Grandy hit 30HR’s and stole 20 bases last year and he has more of a track record than Choo. Who’s to say that Choo doesn’t suddenly start struggling against lefties this year? That was the knock on him all throughout the minors so its not out of the question. Also throw in the fact that Grandy will now be playing half his games in a ballpark that inflates right field home runs by some 20%! I bet he easily beats Choo in the HR department, then throw in the fact that he is now on the best offense in baseball which will increase his runs and rbi’s over last season… Granderson is undervalued this year, he is easily worth a 4th round pick in a 10 or 12 team mixed league…
Give me a break. List the 5 catregories you play, not 2.
Choo is the equal of Jayson Werth and belongs at the same place Werth is. The #6 hitter on the Yankees who can’t hit LHP has no business being in the same conversation. Defense and “Team Wins” are not recognized Fantasy categories.
2009 Granderson: 91R/30HR/71RBI/20SB/.249Avg
2009 Shin Chooo: 87R/20HR/86RBI/21SB/.300Avg
Sorry dude, those are two guys who belong in the same tier, 10 extra home runs easily makes up for .050 points in average. And there is reason to believe that Grandy’s runs, RBI’s, HR’s, and batting average will all get better. The reasons you can assume his numbers could increase in 2010?
1) He is on the BEST OFFENSE IN BASEBALL (more Runs and RBI)
2) He’s moving to an extreme left-handed HR hitting park (more HR’s)
3) His BABIP last year was only .275 (career .321 mark)
And YOUR argument is what exactly?
It doesn’t come close- you don’t understand AVG and how important it is.
Yahoo’s ranking system for 2009 production has Choo #51 in all of MLB, Granderson #98. CBS has Choo #49 and Grnaderson #108.
Not in the same tier.
PS Sizemore (is there a more overrated player in all of MLB? ) was #209 by Yahoo and #207 by CBS.
Good thing we don’t draft last year’s stats then?
This I’m surprised about. I’d say Grandy beats Choo in 4/5 traditional categories. If Grandy sits some against lefties, maybe 3/5. They are at least in the same convo. Teams matter in 2/5 cats and Grandy’s got the advantage in team situation. Plus we’ve yet to see the home park affects and lineup position for Grandy.
Choo has had one solid full year, nothing to get too excited about. I’d take Granderson. More power, more speed, better lineup.
I still think you have to consider Holliday to be the #2 OF choice. Kemp obviously will steal 10-15 more bags, but aside from that I see his ceiling as Holliday’s floor. Holliday is the more likely of the two to belt 30 homers I’d say.
Sizemore should have a better year than Upton, who I’m betting is the second Upton brother to have a BABIP fueled breakout. No mistaking the kid is good but I’m seeing a mid-tier dude at this point. And 1 SB in 2008? I don’t think you can consider another 25-20 season all that likely.
Yeah just imagine if Sizemore does in 2010 what he did in 2008. 33HR’s and 38 steals? Sign me up for that in the 2nd (or even 3rd) round.
You could make a good case for Sizemore to be the #2 OF, but I’d probably opt for Holliday’s reliability given the option. Both make drafting at the bottom of a snake draft very attractive – A Holliday/Lincecum 1-2 pick would be pretty great.
BIP: exactly.
It’s hard for me to call a guy with .290 30/30 upside ‘overrated’ especially with him going in the second/third round.
I’m not hating on Choo, or loving Granderson – I think they both have their positive attributes and their negative ones as well. Choo doesn’t put up big crooked numbers in the hr/sb cats, Grandy has the lefty and BA thing. I could see Choo walking that steal totals back this year – he wasn’t a volume guy in the minor leagues, and doens’t have Grandy’s history of stealing bases every year.
If Granderson trims his fly-ball rate from the 50% it was last season, his BABIP should increase. If he had posted a .321 BABIP last season (his career average), his BA becomes .280. He has the power-speed combo to maintain a high BABIP so I don’t think this is too unlikely.
Choo is an interesting case because he consistently puts up BABIP’s in the .370 range- he’s sustaining something that theoretically is pretty unsustainable, but he’s done it for 3 seasons in the majors and he did it in the minors as well.
My point is, with a reasonable increase in BABIP Granderson looks like he can provide 10 more home runs, 5 more stolen bases, and probably more RBI (since he’ll be batting 7th rather than 1st or 2nd) with 20 points less of average (though he shouldn’t be a detriment in that category).
I think it’s pretty clear that putting them in the same tier is the right thing to do…
Shouldn’t Hamilton almost be in the same tier as Quentin now a days? Put up or shut up type of “Situation”
I kinda disagree with Elder Upton in the Leftovers. As someone mentioned on teh credit side he has 1 BABIP fueled half-season, the halo of an uner-prospect, a good playoff run bu on the debit side he has the vast majority of his MLB career .
The extra 10 HRs & 20 RBIs he gets over, say, Julio Borbon, Rajai Davis, Michael Bourn, Nyer Morgan, Shane Victorino, etc is offset by a low avg. that is materially worse than Roto league average. BJ is slightly better than those guys, but not a whole tier better. Or at least I hope so, because I let him go at $17 and grabbed Borbon for $1.
Sorry ’bout the typos, sprained middle finger (and not from waving to Yankee fans).
You’re not going to get Boron for $1 anywhere credible.
Werth is borderline top tier for me. Choo seems to be where he belongs. I get that batting average is always undervalued, but with CHONE and ZIPS giving Choo a .284-.286 mark, that isn’t elite. Sizemore’s HR/FB and BABIP should have hit a low point last year, so I’d expect the home runs to come back up and the average in the high 260s to low 270s. If he’s feeling full strength, he should run again as well.