Updating the Outfielders

During the season, we will update these rankings based on new information which will hopefully help you determine good trade targets and stay on top of each position. This week, we’ll take a look at some springs so you can see who is on a roll going into the season.

The Top Targets:
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee (.405 wOBA)
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles NL (.367 wOBA)
Justin Upton, Arizona (.388 wOBA)
Grady Sizemore, Cleveland (.343 wOBA)
Matt Holliday, St. Louis (.390 wOBA)

There’s not enough news here to justify moving players around, but there are a couple things to mention. Justin Upton sprained his ankle last week and got dropped on some draft boards because of some early speculation that it might dampen his speed. Well, all he missed was one game and he’s currently hitting .366/.456/.714 and is a John Dewan candidate for a ‘breakout’ season because of that slugging percentage. If last year wasn’t his breakout season, you’re looking at a perennial top-five player in fantasy baseball. Upton’s also been the subject of some speculation and comparison over at TMI (insider), FWIW (LOL OMG).

It’s also worth mentioning that it’s ‘All Systems Go’ for Grady’s Ladies in the Cleveland bleachers this year. The good-looking coffee-cup-wearing outfielder they love so much is batting .378/.521/.595 with two stolen bases (against no caught stealings). A healthy year will remind people why Sizemore was a first round pick in the past, and one year he’ll have a lucky BABIP year and have a great batting average to boot.

The Next Best Thing:
Jason Bay, New York NL (.397 wOBA)
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston (.354 wOBA)
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay (.367 wOBA)
Jayson Werth, Philadelphia (.382 wOBA)
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle (.369 wOBA)
Adam Lind, Toronto (.394 wOBA)
Nick Markakis, Baltimore (.349 wOBA)

Adam Lind’s skeptics might point to his poor spring (.214/.267/.429) as a sign that Lind won’t repeat his strong 2009, but it’s early going. He didn’t always put up .200+ ISOs in the minor leagues, and perhaps one could use that as evidence that his power is suspect. That camp can walk back his power projections, but I prefer to split the difference and like CHONE as the ‘floor’ projection (.293/.350/.502) despite the poor spring. Really, it’s only forty at-bats.

The Leftovers:
Josh Hamilton, Texas (.321 wOBA)
Curtis Granderson, New York AL (.340wOBA)
Nelson Cruz, Texas (.368 wOBA)
Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles NL (.396 wOBA)
B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay (.310 wOBA)
Andre Ethier, Los Angeles NL (.370 wOBA)
Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland (.389 wOBA)

Because of his hot spring (.420/.455/.700), Josh Hamilton could be on the cusp of joining the group ahead of him. Maybe – if only he hadn’t suffered from two injuries in the spring. It is, of course, the injuries that keep people from drafting Hamilton. The good news is that these injuries probably could not have been avoided. Madison Bumgarner hit Hamilton in the hand, and he only missed a couple games with a hand contusion because it was only Madison Bumgarner (badum-ching!). Then Hamilton got a toothache. It seems ridiculous to type these words, but Hamilton’s got a litany of injuries that seem just as bizarre and it all adds up to something. Maybe. I’d focus on the nice spring numbers and draft him low for a bounce-back season.