Rankings Update: Outfielders
I’m back from Japan and have Basu-Baru pictures for your pleasure. Baseball in Japan has many of the trappings of the American version, but also includes cheerleaders and choreographed songs. Interestingly enough, the game I saw featured two Westerners at cleanup – Tony Blanco for the Chunichi Dragons and Alex Ramirez for the Yomiuri Giants. The pitchers had decent stuff, and the crowd was louder than many (most?) regular season MLB games, but overall the package was something like a AAAA game.
I digress. Time to take ownership of these outfielder rankings and change them up a bit. I will be doing them all season, as a sort of power ranking at the position. We’ll go with the FANS’ projected wOBAs (aka their upside projections) for another week.
The Top Three:
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee (.405 wOBA)
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles NL (.367 wOBA)
Justin Upton, Arizona (.388 wOBA)
Nothing much to say here except it looks like Upton’s ankle isn’t bothering him. These guys are studs and by the end of the year, could easily all be top-five fantasy players despite playing in the outfield.
There’s Nothing Wrong With…
Grady Sizemore, Cleveland (.343 wOBA)
Matt Holliday, St. Louis (.390 wOBA)
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay (.367 wOBA)
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston (.354 wOBA)
Curtis Granderson, New York AL (.340 wOBA)
Nelson Cruz, Texas (.368 wOBA)
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle (.369 wOBA)
Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland (.389 wOBA)
After the spirited Choo vs Granderson vs Sizemore comments conversation from the last time we updated these rankings, it’s only natural that we find a way to put them all in the same tier where they belong. Nelson Cruz is absolutely on fire, but his BABIP (.357) and K rate (24.1%) together suggest that the batting average should regress to his career norm. Granderson is still having trouble with lefties, but if he continues to bash righties to this extend, he’ll stay out of the next tier.
Not Quite Five-Category Performers
Josh Hamilton, Texas (.321 wOBA)
Jason Bay, New York NL (.397 wOBA)
Adam Lind, Toronto (.394 wOBA)
Nick Markakis, Baltimore (.349 wOBA)
Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles NL (.396 wOBA)
Manny is actually showing that he’s still got something left and with another tater or two could even join the next tier. That said, his missed games will keep the old(er) man back a little. Those same missed games should come into play with Hamilton eventually too. Lind’s power has taken a slight step back, but it’s early going and all it looks like he needs to do is loft the ball a little more (33.3% FB this year, 36.8% last year).
Missing Something?
Jayson Werth, Philadelphia (.382 wOBA)
B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay (.310 wOBA)
Andre Ethier, Los Angeles NL (.370 wOBA)
Werth reminded us that he has some injury issues by missing time with hip soreness, but has otherwise played well. The older Upton is actually playing about as well as can be expected, and in leagues that don’t use batting average, he may yet prove to be an elite option. Ethier will have his supporters, but his fly ball rate already fell, and his power pace should fall with it. The batting average should be strong this year, though, and he’s still a solid option.
Upside to Join the Top
Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh (.360 wOBA)
Carlos Quentin (.375 wOBA)
Michael Bourn (.326 wOBA)
Jason Kubel (.370 wOBA)
Outfielders are a tough position to handicap because of the sheer numbers, which also won’t allow me to go too deep. By highlighting some guys that could join the elite with the right years, we can delve a little deeper. So, while Shane Victorino is a fine option in the outfield, McCutchen is stealing bases at a pace (five so far) that would outpace the Flyin’ Hawaiian should it keep up. Bourn has shown the same plus plus speed. Should Quentin stay healthy, and Kubel prove that he can keep his slugging percentage over .500 year-in and year-out, they would join the power elite. So far, so good.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Uh, B.J. is the older brother of Justin, not the other way around.
Ugh. Yeah, that jetlag coming back from Tokyo is pretty bad haha.
Will there be one for OF2 or OF3? If not, I’d love to see future posts go deeper if you could. I think a lot of the fangraphs crowd tends to play in deeper leagues.
Adam Jones. Upside to join the top?
I dunno, I’d take Jones over some of the guys in the 3rd tier
Doesn’t Jay Bruce have the upside to join the top? I still like him for 30 HR and at least .270 assuming he stays healthy.
I like Bruce for upside to join the top more than Jones because I think Jones is a .280 20/20 guy and Bruce has the upside to really mash in power terms. If Quentin has the upside to join the top, so does Bruce. IN terms of a power ranking, though, Quentin gets edge just because he’s playing a little better.
I’m going to have to open this up into OF2 and OF3 for sure.
No place for Michael Cuddyer? So far, he’s continued the good times from last year and even has a steal. Does he not have the staying power to be in one of the bottom two groups? BABIP is high, but I don’t think deep leagues drafted him to be a .300 hitter.
Good list but my 1 beef is Josh Hamilton. He has shown very little this year and hasn’t really been good since the first half of 2008. Him and BJ Upton should be in the “missing something?” category while Werth and Ethier should be in the next tier up… Seriously, just go back and add up Hamilton’s stats from about August 1, 2008 until now and you will see someone who has no business being in the same tier as Werth or Ethier…
Right now wouldn’t you rather have Heyward over Bruce? J Brizzy becoming a huge bust fast!
How many times has Heyward K’d?
I am comparing him to Jay Bruce.. He will have less K’s than Bruce. Is it even close??? I am a Bruce fan. He really hasn’t showed very much since that 10 game insane stretch he had his rookie year. Maybe Bruce is related to Kevin Maas
Just taking the names out of the equation. Player A batting under 200 , 0 homers , 0 rbi injured last year or Player B batting 300 , 3 homers, 12 rbi and no injury history ….. kind of not even close right now.
Just make sure you only start Kubel vs righties. He has major platoon splits and sure isn’t getting the stolen bases to make it worth the start
What about Carlos Lee?
I think Hamilton deserves his ranking. Although he has no homers, he has been hitting the ball hard and has an OPS of just under 900, even after a rough first few games. He had a laundry list of injuries last year and is injury prone, but it looks like a good rebound year. Of course, I own him though, so I am optimistic.
I wonder who can tell us who has these stats vs LHP the last two years: ’09 in 193 AB’s: 27R, 2HR, 18 RBI, 4 stolen bases, .269 BA. ’08 in 141 AB’s: 16R, 3HR, 22 RBI, 3 stolen bases, .248 BA. More to the point, who would want this player in their lineup against a lefty starter (except for the hope that he would get to face a right handed reliever).
He is always underrated but I would certainly put Abreu in this tier of OF somewhere. Other than a BABIP blip he still looks like a 100, 15, 100, .290, 25 type of guy which about the same as Markakis.
Yes. You are correct. He should be on here. Will be interesting to see who I push to OF2, or if he heads up the OF2 list. Honestly, despite the fact that he’s good, I think it would be a stretch to play him as your first OF.
What about Carlos Gonzalez?? CarGo is on fire and looks to be the spark plug atop the rockies offense.
I am actually going to have to put a bit of a vote against Justin Upton that high actually. I just spent some time looking at his numbers last year and his minor league numbers and discovered one thing:
His average projects to regress to FAR worse than last year. He’s just not a 0.300 hitter at this point. He struck out way too much last year and was lucky on BABIP. He’s striking out even more this year. I know he’s toolsy, but let’s be realistic here. If he has a solid year and makes a 30-20 season, but with an average of 0.275, is he really that much better than Granderson?
I mean, let’s compare what we’d estimate from each of them side by side:
Upton – Granderson: +15 RBI, +10 AVG, -10 R
Or if Upton hits for excellent power, and Granderson ignores the short porch in the Bronx, maybe an extra +10 HR. Definitely an upgrade from Granderson. But Granderson is listed as barely hanging on to tier 2, while Upton is top 3.
Moreover, a guy like Nelson Cruz seems likely to be better in all the counting stats. He steals better, his park is better for HR, and his surrounding offense is better. The only thing separating them is average. Take away Upton’s 0.360 BABIP from last year and adjust it down by 30 pts (his career BABIP) and you have almost the same player.
To me, Justin Upton has to be considered a Tier 2 guy. Sure, he’s got plenty of upside, but he’s much likelier to look like Granderson or Cruz than Braun or Kemp at the end of the day.
Ahh, the weak stomach’s of Upton fantasy owners, it’s only one poor month. Though I do agree with most of your premise. Another note, I think Ethier should be getting WAY more love, small sample size be damned, dude is legit.
there was a reason hamilton was the first overall pick in the 1999 draft, he has the potential for 30-40 home runs. i know he has drug problems and gets injured, but he has shown his potential in the majors i.e. first half of 2008. i truly believe that his mediocre second half of 2008 had something to do with the hr derby, as hitters usually alter their swing in it. yes, their is risk, but hamilton could move up to the top of tier 2 if he stays healthy
The updated ZiPS projects Ethier for .312, 89 runs, 32 homeruns, 123 RBI. He is *way* too low in your rankings.