Continuing last week’s theme of looking at the biggest surprises thus far in ottoneu lwts leagues (and, really, fantasy as a whole), we look today at second basemen, shortstops, and outfielders.
| Howard Kendrick, LAA Avg. Cost: $5.14 Performed As: $31 Value: +$26 |
Allen Craig, STL Avg. Cost: $1.44 Performed As: $25 Value: +$24 |
Ryan Roberts, ARI Avg. Cost: $1.59 Performed As: $25 Value: +$24 |
My pick: Howard Kendrick
These speedy outfielder dudes should be rostered in leagues in which they should be rostered, know what I mean?
Nyjer Morgan (Yahoo 11% owned, ESPN 7.1% owned)
Say what? What did Nyjer Morgan do to you to deserve these low ownership rates? Yes, he’s a little… excitable. Yes, he has an inflated BABIP (.465) that will return to earth. Yes, he has some plate discipline problems (4.4% BB, 25.4% K). Yes, this power he’s showing right now (.237 ISO) is not real when looked at in the context of his career numbers (.084 ISO). Oh, and yes, he’s a lefty with a poor platoon split so far in his career (.574 career OPS versus LHP in 300 at-bats) that might be platooned with Carlos Gomez in the outfield (.663 OPS versus LHP in 467 at-bats). All those things are true. Also true are the facts that Morgan has good speed. He has a strong enough glove to ignore some of his offensive faults. And Morgan is no offensive sinkhole like Gomez. Lastly, being able to play righties is much more important than playing lefties. There are more of them! Morgan should easily out-produce his ZIPS projection for plate appearances the rest of the way (287 plate appearances), given that two-thirds of the season remains and he should start in at least two-thirds of those games. Even with his plate discipline problems, Morgan mostly puts the ball on the ground and uses his speed to put up decent batting averages. Expect him to manage at least .280 in that category. This is one of those flawed real-life players that should be owned in most leagues that have twelve or more teams.
Eric Young Jr. (Yahoo 6% owned, ESPN 6.6% owned)
Amid rumors of a possible demotion headed his way, Dexter Fowler was instead disabled this weekend. A strained left abdominal muscle means that he’ll be out at least two weeks and a couple of interesting names will get some burn. First in line is Eric Young Jr, who has the wheels of his father but maybe not the infield glove. Now, with center field open, he’ll likely play every day and rack up the steals. His lack of power and line drives, and average-ish strikeout rate, mean that he won’t likely have a batting average even as nice as Nyjer Morgan’s, so he’s more of a deep-leaguer. The second-base eligibility is icing on the cake. Keep an eye out for Charlie Blackmon, too. He’s raking in the minor leagues (.346/.402/.582) and is a long-time NERD high-scorer. He’s probably more of a natural center fielder, and the team could play both him and Young if they want to avoid playing Ty Wigginton or Jonathan Herrera on any given day.
Let’s kick off this week’s round of waiver wire posts off with a look at two NL outfielders who are starting to come around…
It is time for some more deep league fun. While injuries in mixed leagues do not usually lead to new sources of significant value, it is actually a huge supplier of value in Only leagues. Which is why sometimes I wish I was playing in an Only league this year so I could have an excuse to analyze such players as in the post title. But then I remember how much more your team gets killed when your guy is the one who goes down and I don’t miss playing in Only leagues any more. For those poor souls dealing with a smattering of strained obliques, quads and hamstrings, I have one option for ya. And the others in need of pitching help, I am here for you as well.
Looking for outfield help with some pop to spruce up your fantasy roster? Got a guy on your team mired in a slump and could stand to ride the pine for a week or two? Deeper league owners should already be wise to these players (if you’re not, you’re probably sitting in last and could stand to pay some attention), but if you’re in a relatively shallow league, you might want to consider grabbing one of them. Whether it’s to replace an injured Matt Holliday for a few games or a slumping Alex Rios for a couple of weeks, both of these guys can contribute, atleast for the short run. Read the rest of this entry »
Not every big fly is a home run.
Fantasy players in leagues that count slugging percentage know that they can find a competitive advantage in players that don’t hit home runs but do manage plenty of extra base hits. Those in ottoneu linear weights leagues know the same. So let’s look at some different players that have added value in leagues that count extra base hits that are not home runs.
The first idea that comes to mind is doubles power. Perhaps there are some players that hit doubles but don’t really have the power to get those balls over the wall (dirty). This year, the doubles leader is Michael Young, which might come as a surprise considering his two home runs so far. Other players with lower home run totals that appear in the top ten are Alex Gordon and Chipper Jones. Jacoby Ellsbury and Billy Butler are the only other surprises in the top ten.
The most attainable of this crew might be Gordon. He’s showing the best power of his career when measured by ISO (.181), but we know that statistic takes the longest to stabilize. Will his doubles power continue to offer value in non-home-run-centered leagues? It seems yes. Since strikeout rate stabilizes early and Gordon’s 21.4% strikeout percentage is the best of his career, we can assume that he’ll put more balls into play than in his average year. Contact percentage becomes reliable early as well, and his current 81.6% contact rate is well above his career number (76.8%). Put more balls into play with above-average career power (.163 ISO career, .150 is average), and you’ll end up at second base often enough. Consider trying to acquire Gordon if you need extra points in linear weights leagues, or some extra slugging percentage in OPS leagues.
Another way to add value in these non-traditional leagues is to show an above-average ISO when your home-run power is pedestrian. Most of the ISO leaderboard is conventional. Obviously Jose Bautista leads the list and Curtis Granderson and Mike Stanton follow closely. But you might be surprised to find Russell Martin and Shane Victorino rounding out the top 30 in that statistic.
Martin deserves some attention on his own because his work is superlative when seen in the context of his career. But Victorino has long been a secret boon in leagues that measure power in ways other than home runs. His career ISO is .153, but he’s bettered that mark since 2008. This year, by making more contact, he’s hitting the most fly balls of his career. That might seem like a poor idea for a speedy hitter, but obviously the Phillie center fielder has some power. Last year, Victorino did not hit 30 doubles for the third straight year, but he did manage to hit a career-high in home runs. if he doesn’t hit 20 home runs this year, expect him to challenge 30 doubles like he used to. Either way, Victorino, once healthy, will provide great power in leagues that can see past his pedestrian home run total.
Thank goodness for injuries opening up playing time for new blood or I would be out of a job. Injuries to Jason Heyward and Nate McLouth have provided opportunities for a one-time recent prospect and another one-time prospect who has become a productive bench bat.
On the morning of May 2nd, a fairly toasted Shin-Soo Choo flagged down a police cruiser and asked for directions home. As you know, the rest of his night went downhill from there, and for fantasy owners, the rest of his production has been pretty much downhill from there too.
While Choo isn’t the flashiest of players and he won’t single handedly carry you in a particular category, I wouldn’t blame owners if they figured they could pencil in a .300 batting average, 20 home runs, 20 steals, and 90 RBI on draft day and move on. But since the beginning of May, Choo has batted .236/.325/.361 with one home run and has struck out 29.2% of the time. Whether or not that incident has been the catalyst for such a slide, I don’t know, but Choo either presents a quandary for owners or a potential opportunity for trade mavens, so let’s dig in and see if we can’t unearth the cause.
Let’s take a quick look at one of the more decimated outfields in the big leagues. The Atlanta Braves haven’t had a good outfield in years, but going into this season, they had trade acquisition Nate McLouth manning center and two home-cooked products in Martin Prado and Jason Heyward on the corners. It looked like it could be a decent-to-strong group and a change of pace for the Braves.
This weekend, Heyward went on the DL with his rotator cuff inflammation and McLouth left a game early with an oblique problem. That’s a good way to test your depth. Unfortunately, the Braves are short on depth in the outfield. Let’s look at the winners in this outfield mess.
Eric Hinske (4% owned in Yahoo, 8.3% in ESPN)
Obviously this career .256 hitter won’t continue to hit .355, especially when he’s out there playing every day. Most worrisome is what will happen when he goes up against lefties — some of his success this year have some from being hid versus same-handed pitchers (69 of 81 PAs have come against righties). He has a .300 OBP and .385 SLG against lefties, career, and those numbers go up to .347 and .456 against righties. If you can sit him against lefties, he makes for a good short-term pickup in deeper leagues just because he will be playing regularly and has a little pop. One note about his BABIP — since he’s been hitting balls on the ground more often this year, he actually has a .339 xBABIP. Yes, his .442 BABIP will regress, but it might not regress to his career .301 BABIP. He will probably put in the best seasonal batting average of his career this year.
Joe Mather (0% owned in Yahoo, 0.3% owned in ESPN
Acquired from the Cardinals in the offseason for outfield depth, Mather is now on fire in a small sample size. As a right-hander, he’ll probably work as Hinske’s caddy versus lefties — he’s not a center fielder by trade. He played all over the diamond in Atlanta’s Triple-A affiliate (1B, 3B, LF, RF), but never in center, and he’s been moved to the corner outfield gradually over his career. On the other hand, despite being better against lefties in the minor leagues, Mather has not shown great numbers against major league lefties to date. His current swinging strike percentage (13.5%), paired with his BABIP (.545), suggests the batting average is headed for a nose dive.
The Rest
If McLouth hits the DL for an extended period of time for his oblique injury, a truer center fielder than Mather will be required. Diory Hernandez took over for McLouth in Sunday’s game, but the shortstop moved to third base, pushing Martin Prado back out to left fied and Mather in to center. Hernandez, however, hits like the defensive replacement he is. Could Jordan Schafer or Matt Young get the call? Both are better defensive center fielders, perhaps, than a career infielder. Neither is playing very well in Triple-A (.256/.309/.323 for Schafer and .255/.354/.306 for Young) but both are on the 40-man roster. Schafer is, however, showing the best strikeout rate of his career in the young season. If McLouth’s oblique is a problem, he might come up. If the new strikeout rate persists, he might be able to pair a decent batting average with some speed and a little bit of power (though, to be fair, the power has disappeared since 2009). Cautious interest, even in deeper leagues, is the best tactic here.