Yesterday, The Marlins traded Dee Gordon to the Mariners for three minor league prospects. The trade came out of nowhere since the Mariners already rostered a top second baseman, Robinson Cano. Then it became known that Mariners plan on playing Gordon in centerfield. Having both middle infield and outfield qualifications a couple weeks into the season could move up his average draft position. The question remains though, will Gordon be able to cut in centerfield? Probably.

Gordon’s offensive talent is easy to access. The 29-year-old makes a ton of groundball contact and gets on first base using his speed. Once on base, he uses those legs to steal as many bases as possible. That’s it.

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The Reds have enviable outfield depth. Beyond a solid starting trio of Billy Hamilton, Adam Duvall, and Scott Schebler, top prospect Jesse Winker is banging down the door. Winker was superb in a 137 plate appearance trial – enough so that, despite hitting 30 home runs, Schebler’s job is in danger. Winker has only one serious drawback – he’s a ground ball hitter with middling power. He is a high floor, modest ceiling hitter whose profile is helped by his ultra-friendly home park.

Next in line after Winker is Phillip Ervin. The 25-year-old righty profiles as an ideal fourth outfielder, capable of filling in at center field in a pinch or carrying the light side of a platoon. With the right opportunity at Great American Ballpark, Ervin could supply serious fantasy value.

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Today let’s continue recapping one of my 2017 Pod Projections, this time heading to Milwaukee to discuss Keon Broxton. Coming off an intriguing half-season in 2016 that featured an exciting blend of power and speed, along with some clear flaws, he was a popular sleeper for 2017 and one whose projections people couldn’t really settle on. So what was I projecting and how did that compare to his actual results? Let’s find out.

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I planned to include Rhys Hoskins in my blind résumés post from Monday, but I couldn’t find any realistic comps for him. Part of the problem is no one does for a full season what Hoskins did for 50 games. Part of the problem, also, is no one does for a full season what Hoskins would be expected to do for a full season, based on his peripherals. It’s a fairly unique skill set (although let’s not conflate “unique” with “the best” or any kind of superlative like that… yet).

Hoskins had himself a real, real nice debut. This isn’t the first time you’ve read about him in the last couple of months and it will be far from the last. Andrew Perpetua, for all intents and purposes, regressed his batted balls from 2017 and he still would’ve had an awesome season. In Eno Sarris’ heart, as well as mine, Hoskins was the runner-up National League Rookie of the Year to Cody Bellinger.

Hoskins had himself a real, real conveniently sized debut as well. His playing exactly 50 games prevents me from arbitrarily choosing a cutoff and having to justify it. A cutoff for what, you ask? Well, Hoskins, in exactly 50 games, posted a .359 isolated power (ISO) while swinging and missing only 7.1% of the time. He struck out a fair deal, but he also walked a ton. Take this snapshot of a season and, as aforementioned, you’ll be hard-pressed to find comps.

Which is exactly why I set out on a very pseudo-scientific quest to find any of Hoskins’ contemporaries who have done this — this, being the aforementioned 50 games of a .350-ish ISO and a 7%-ish swinging strike rate (SwStr%) — at any point in their careers (or within windows of their careers that I’ve curated). I’m winging it here, plucking names from my brain who have elite power and at least above-average plate discipline (assuming Hoskins might, but it’s not a foregone conclusion) and scouring their careers for similar streaks. Any omitted hitters are a product of my lack of memory or imagination, not of malice. Except for Giancarlo Stanton.

Mike Trout

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I’ve done this before — compare similar players, one of whom is “name-brand,” the other “generic-brand,” using blind résumés — as have many others. Ben Kaspick carried the torch a while this year, but he credited Joe Douglas with the idea. So let’s say it’s a group effort to which I’ll contribute once again.

In anticipation of 2018 drafts, I wanted to carry out a “buying generic” style of analysis, borrowing in part from too-early mock draft average draft position (ADP) data. I do not intend to construe the following comparisons as rigorous analysis. I do, however, intend to highlight some potential bargains that, if the too-early mock ADP information is concerned, warrant your attention on draft day.

Comparison #1: Outfielders

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Max Kepler wasn’t an incredibly popular sleeper heading into the 2017 season, but I was certainly far from the only analyst who was high on the young German. The 24-year-old was coming off a productive yet unspectacular rookie campaign, and was just one year removed from a breakout year in Double-A that made him a fixture on top prospect lists.

Kepler’s 2016 wasn’t eye-popping, but there were many positive signs for the rookie. His power had just started showing up in games in that breakout Double-A season a year before, and now he was taking the next step and hitting the ball over the fence (17 HR in 447 PA). It certainly wasn’t out of the question to predict another step forward in that department, perhaps to a 20-25 HR season in 2017.

He stole just six bases in the majors in 2016, but the fact that he’d swiped 19 bags in the minors the year before was reason for optimism. Furthermore, his .235 batting average was held down by a .261 BABIP, which seemed far too low for a player with pretty good speed.

In short, it wasn’t hard to envision something like .275/25 HR/15 SB if everything came together in 2017. Despite being an unproven option at a deep position, Kepler was drafted in well over half of Yahoo leagues. Like I said, not a super-popular sleeper, but not flying under the radar either.

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Back in February of 2015, I wrote the first edition of this article – I Don’t Get It: Avisail Garcia. Three seasons later, that article has held up really well. Avisail Garcia has posted less than four WAR over his last 1,615 plate appearance. However, since his 2017 campaign checked in at 4.2 WAR with strong four category production, fantasy owners are going to jump back onto the Avisailwagon. I’m here to advise caution.

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This is the second installment of my Unlikely Pairs series. Last week I looked at Mike Trout and Freddie Freeman and their elite offensive production. This week we’ll be aiming a little lower in the draft, and maybe it will be more controversial.

Domingo Santana v Shin-Soo Choo.

These two players are on opposite ends of the career spectrum. Santana, 25 years old, just put up great numbers in his first full season in the majors.  Domingo Santana is a bit of a late bloomer, having spent full seasons in both AA and AAA, both with the Astros, prior to advancing. His AA season was particularly mediocre, as he suffered deep drops in both walk rate and batting average. The following season, age 22 in AAA, his walk rate and batting average both bounced back, but he was only given a total of 18 major league plate appearances. In mid 2015, still in AAA, he was traded to the Brewers as part of the Carlos Gomez/Mike Fiers trade. In 2016, Santana injured his elbow and missed most of the season. So, 2017 was his first real chance in the majors, and he certainly ran with it, hitting 30 homers, stealing 15 bases, and achieving 126 wRC+.

Meanwhile, Shin Soo Choo, 35 years old, enjoyed a bounce back year after an injury plagued 2016 campaign.  Choo established himself as a solid and reliable player in 2008, and put up consistent 20 HR, 80 R, 60 RBI seasons from 2008 through 2015 with two exceptions. Read the rest of this entry »

Today we complete the hitter side of the 2017 Pod’s Picks & Pans with the outfielders. Let’s see how my rankings on the players I disagree with the RG consensus performed.

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If you took a quick look at the MLB leaderboard for hard-hit rate in 2017, you would probably surmise that Nick Castellanos actually did break out, as opposed to what the headline of this post may indicate. Castellanos hit the ball hard more frequently than all but six players this season, as you can see below. The ranking by each player indicates his end-of-season rank in standard 5×5 leagues:

• J.D. Martinez – 15th – 49.2%
• Joey Gallo – 99th – 46.4%
• Aaron Judge – 5th – 45.3%
• Miguel Sano – 102nd – 45.2%
• Paul Goldschmidt – 4th – 44.4%
• Corey Seager – 66th – 44.1%
• Nick Castellanos – 65th – 43.6%

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