1) Travis d’Arnaud will be a top-3 catcher in all formats
This prediction relies on d’Arnaud being healthy this season, but if he is I think we could see 25 home runs with 70+ runs and RBI with a .270 average. In 268 plate appearances last season d’Arnaud had a .355 wOBA, not far behind what Kyle Schwarber did (.364 wOBA) in his 273 plate appearances.
Successfully “rebuilding” your fantasy team into a contender is an epic challenge that requires vision, skill, patience, and a little bit of luck. Since there is no perfect blueprint that ensures success (some people say never rebuild), it’s not surprising that owners take a lot of different routes to the same ultimate goal.
I recently polled a group of savvy, successful fantasy owners to get their advice for rebuilding in Ottoneu, asking five key questions that are related to the idea of effective rebuilding. Regardless of whether you play Ottoneu, much of the (anonymous) feedback below should be relevant to a wide variety of fantasy baseball leagues and may be helpful if you find yourself in a rebuild this season.
What is the best advice you would offer an Ottoneu owner who is rebuilding their roster for the future?
Each year, before the season, I try to run a set of projected standings for my leagues. It’s not super difficult, though you do have to set aside probably about one hour per league to set it up. But once you have these projections, they can be extremely useful in figuring out your strengths and weaknesses, and giving yourself a realistic outlook for your team.
The specifics below are based on ottoneu, but the theory can be applied to any format.
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As with Joe’s earlier post, these ottoneu predictions specifically reference the FGPts scoring system. Let’s get down to it!
At face value, this one might not seem so bold, but keep in mind that at least one catcher has scored over 800 points each of the past few seasons, and several over 600. The position is always on the verge of falling under these thresholds, though, and this prediction is a bet that this could be the year. Perhaps Buster Posey underperforms a bit, Jonathan Lucroy doesn’t play such a heavy schedule of games, and some of the middle-tier options split playing time more than expected. We’ve talked before about how catching is a deep but very flat position in ottoneu, and this would be further proof of the fungibility of a position where a dozen players can all give you similar production.
If Cozart keeps up his 50 game breakout, he could make this happen, no problem. But that’s a huge “if,” considering he nearly doubled his career ISO, and jumped 70 points in wOBA from 2014. Here’s hoping Cozart’s short-lived mission to “crush the inside part of the ball” pays dividends in 2016!
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Episode 3 of OttoGraphs is here and we have a special guest- Chris Mitchell, creator of KATOH! We discuss the development of KATOH and the types of players the prospect model prefers, and Chris was also gracious enough to answer some questions we had about some specific prospects including Alex Verdugo, Clayton Blackburn, Blake Snell, and Joey Gallo.
Feel free to comment with any questions or suggestions you may have about this episode or future topics, and we can be reached individually on Twitter:
Lastly, special thanks to Treemen who provided our intro and outro music. If you like what you hear, please check out their other work at http://treemen.bandcamp.com/
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These predictions are specifically based on Ottoneu FGpt scoring. Perhaps “Bold” isn’t defined clearly enough, but my hope is that this is structured in such a way that my thought process can provide some benefit (even if the predictions seem a little extreme at face value.)
1. Domingo Santana will be a top 15 OF.
Nelson Cruz, Yasiel Puig, Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, Starling Marte, Adam Jones… If you looked at our FGpt OF rankings, these are the 15-20th ranked outfielders. Which is to say, I think Domingo Santana could be better than all of them (and the rest of those listed below him in our rankings) in 2016. The Brewers do not look like a good team (yet…) so – unless he gets injured – expect a full slate of playing time, a great home park, and lots of power (three things that are gold in linear weights scoring.) The obvious hole in his game is the strikeouts (34% in 2015), but if he can reign that in at all, the upside is tremendous.
2. John Jaso will be a viable 2nd OF
The obvious issue has been playing time (70, 99, 70 games played over the past 3 seasons), but given that he slated to play 1B, I feel fairly confident he will play more games than he has in any of the past 3 seasons. If he does, he could easily produce value which is expected of many #2 OF in FGpts. The Pirates’ outfield is set, so don’t expect him to retain eligibility for 2017, but he should be incredibly useful for this season. Alex Gordon, Starling Marte, Adam Jones, Christian Yelich, Charlie Blackmon, and Yoenis Cespedes are all projected to be within 5 points of wOBA of Jaso. Those players will cost $18-$25 apiece. If he can stay on the field, Jaso has a good chance to be in that tier, and you can get him for about a third of that price.
For our second episode we discuss ottoneu auction tips and strategies.
Feel free to comment with any questions or suggestions you may have about this episode or future topics, and we can be reached individually on Twitter:
Lastly, special thanks to Treemen who provided our intro and outro music. If you like what you hear, please check out their other work at http://treemen.bandcamp.com/
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Co-ownership. In my 10 years of fantasy experience, it was something I’d never tried before, nor had I given it much thought. It always seemed like a chore, and (given that I tend to have strong opinions) I assumed that if I ever did co-own a team I would end up “running” the squad, while my counterpart would be left to sit on his hands. It just didn’t seem like much fun – for me or my counterpart – or like an experience that would be any different from Ottoneu leagues I had already participated in.
Until recently.
Fellow Rotographs contributor Trey Baughn and myself were paired up in a newly formed Ottoneu league. Neither of us are experts on the topic of co-ownership, but I wanted to talk through several observations we have quickly realized in our month long trial run.
Episode 1 of “OttoGraphs”, the ottoneu-centric fantasy baseball podcast, is here! This weekly (or possibly more frequent) podcast will cover all things ottoneu, from auction strategy, valuation tools, in season tips/tricks, and offseason trade/keeper strategy.
The first segment of this episode serves as our introduction, and touches briefly on what the four of us (Joe, Justin, Tom, and Trey) love about ottoneu and how we got our start with it.
We apologize in advance for the untimely nature of our second segment’s content, but even though the Keeper deadline in ottoneu has come and gone we thought it would still be instructive to keep this segment away from the cutting room floor.
Feel free to comment with any questions or suggestions you may have about this episode or future topics, and we can be reached individually on Twitter:
Lastly, special thanks to Treemen who provided our intro and outro music. If you like what you hear, please check out their other work at http://treemen.bandcamp.com/
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I’ve recently completed two deep Ottoneu minor league drafts and am reminded just how difficult successful “prospecting” can be. Regardless of how informed you may feel heading into an MiLB draft, you’re often left selecting players based upon small sample sizes, second hand reports, maybe a few brief videos and, as much as we want to deny it, a bias towards “scouting the stat lines”. At the end of the day you’re making a decision using limited information that could have serious long term consequences for your dynasty team.
Prospecting is actually a lot like another critical business skill: hiring good employees. The inputs might be a little different (scouting reports might be job references, batting practice videos might be one hour interviews, and stats, however limited, might be the resume sitting on your desk), but the challenge is the same: make an important, timely decision based on limited information, first impressions, and gut feel.
