Preparing For The Winter – Ottoneu Edition

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November 17, 2015

Arbitration season is over in all ottoneu leagues. It’s time to make some trades in preparation for the 2016 campaign. You’ll have until the end of January to finalize your swaps. As for today, let’s talk about two topics – arbitration results and preparation for the rest of the offseason.

Arbitration Results

Below is a semi-handy chart of arbitration allocations to and from me. It’s difficult to provide the full context simply because every decision is interdependent. I’ll pick out a few items to explain my thoughts.

Arbitration Allocations
Allocations To Me Allocations From Me
Player Amount    Player Team Amount   
Paul Goldschmidt $10 J.D. Martinez Avon Old Farms Winged Beavers $1
George Springer $6 Carlos Carrasco Avon Old Farms Winged Beavers $1
Mike Trout $5 Chris Davis Avon Old Farms Winged Beavers $1
Corey Kluber $4 Carlos Correa Bang the Woodrum $2
Zack Greinke $3 Xander Bogaerts Bang the Woodrum $1
Lance McCullers $1 Max Scherzer Clown Meat $1
Matt Carpenter $1 Jacob DeGrom Clown Meat $1
Collin McHugh $1 Brandon Crawford Clown Meat $1
Clayton Kershaw $1 Josh Donaldson Edmonton Trappers $1
Matt Harvey Edmonton Trappers $1
Addison Russell Edmonton Trappers $1
Nelson Cruz Panda Watch $1
Dee Gordon Piazza’s Back Acne $2
Luis Severino sprattsprattspratt $2
Christian Yelich sprattsprattspratt $1
Travis d’Arnaud Sultans of Swing $1
Carlos Martinez The Huligans $1
Johnny Cueto The Razor Shines $1
Corey Dickerson The Razor Shines $1
Devon Travis The Razor Shines $1
Corey Seager Trumbology: The Study of Trumbo $1
Stephen Piscotty Trumbology: The Study of Trumbo $1

Goldschmidt, now $48, drew the most bids on my team. That’s reasonable. He outperformed Trout by 62 points yet he was $19 cheaper entering arbitration season. He’s still well-below market value.

With just five days left in arbitration, Springer (now $13) had been dinged for just $1. My leaguemates corrected their mistake in the last few days. Frankly, I thought Springer would contend for the most bid upon player. That title belongs to Jake Arrieta and Mookie Betts. They were hammered for $14 apiece.

The $1 bid on McHugh is a head scratcher. Not that McHugh (now $10) isn’t a solid pitcher, it’s just that I have more valuable players. Charlie Blackmon ($5) wasn’t bid upon at all.

As for my bids, I used two principles. First I select the teams I consider most likely to contend in the next season and allocate the full $3 to them. Five teams received that treatment (out of six possible).

I also try to spread out my bids. Where you see $2 bids, it’s because I felt those players were severely under-allocated. Otherwise, I restrained myself to $1 bids. This improves the chance that my allocations will be felt for years to come.

The Next Few Months

Now it’s time to make trades. The first thing I do is make a spreadsheet. I know some of you build very sophisticated sheets. I tend to go low tech. I just want to know a few things about my leaguemates at a glance.

  • Current payroll
  • Projected payroll
  • The guys I want to acquire (by team)
  • What those players cost

I tend to stick with the Roster Organizer page for managing my own team. This winter, I may build a sheet for my guys too. I’m going to have several difficult keep/cut decisions, and it will come down to money.

It’s important to anticipate payroll for two reasons. The first is obvious – it will help you find trade partners. In FanGraphs Staff Two, several owners (include me) are well above the $400 salary cap. That’s true even after accounting for future cuts. I won’t be trading my $64 Kershaw to any of these owners.

A couple guys have a ton of money available. Most owners have some flexibility. They could take on Kershaw but not Kershaw AND $62 Trout. Since several owners are in the same boat as me – they have to dump a few high salary players – it’s important to find quick matches. Otherwise, I could be forced to cut keepable players.

You can also use this thought process in reverse. If you have a ton of salary space, go out and target expensive players. If you have extreme payroll flexibility, you can even take on a couple slightly overpriced players for nothing.

Tracking expected payrolls will also tell you who can bid aggressively in the auction. In our league, I expect about nine owners to be hugging the $400 salary cap heading into the draft. We’ll have acquisitions to make, but they’ll mostly be in the $5 and under bin.

Only a few teams will be able to compete on the best talent in the draft pool. However, this also comes with a corollary – very few quality players will be in the draft pool this year. At least in our league, smart owners will prepare nearly an entire roster before entering the draft. Still, I could be forced to sit out on a couple painfully cheap bargains.





 

You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

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David
8 years ago

So I am still relatively new to the format, and made this trade in a fangraphs points league. Perhaps you could use it as a “teachable moment.”

Player Name Salary
Dellin Betances $13
Yasiel Puig $20
Masahiro Tanaka $19
and $0

The Odor Rougned gives up…

Player Name Salary
Arodys Vizcaino $6
Gerrit Cole $24

0