If you discuss player valuations with anyone who plays Ottoneu, chances are the word “surplus” has come up. Fellow Rotographs contributor Justin Vibber and his robotic heart love the S word, while others believe it to be a catch all that does a poor job of incorporating context, and therefore should be applied a little more conservatively. Maybe the S word isn’t used; maybe owners mention a player is “overpaid” or “underpaid.” Maybe they mention that they prefer talent they “view as a keeper.” Or maybe they claim someone is a “$30 player” without defining what they mean by “$30 player” and without acknowledging that they actually own this player for $15 salary.

As with all areas of life, communication comes with barriers. Written communication creates more barriers than most. Whatever jargon or form of communication is being used, we should recognize that owners tend to skew heavily toward talent that fits these descriptions “surplus”, “keeper”, “underpaid”, etc. We’re all very loosely trying to define the same thing. First let’s talk about why paying a player less than he produces is important.

If Mike Trout is a $70 player (generally), and you own him for $60, that would be viewed as a very good contract. It doesn’t matter that Trout is eating up $60 of your budget (especially if acquired via trade with a loan), because if he was cut, he would auction for more than $60. So, let’s say this hypothetical Trout is $10 underpaid. Does that change the fact that he is still producing $70 of production? No. Regardless of the salary I own Trout for in my league there is zero impact on his on field production. However, he is certainly more valuable to me at a $1 salary than a $99 salary (extreme I know). In this example, his salary of $60 would allow you to buy around $10 dollars more of production in the auction next season. If I bought Trout at $70, I would still have $70 dollars of production. However, I would now be unable to spend $10 on something else compared to if I had owned Trout at $60. If I owned Trout at a $90 salary, well I am still banking a $70 dollars of production, but now I have given up the ability to spend $20 later. Make sense? Because of this, players who are underpaid tend to be the building blocks of successful teams. They are the most highly coveted assets across leagues.

First, Let’s define a few terms. Then we’ll come back to this example. Read the rest of this entry »

With the Ottoneu trade deadline fast approaching, you are probably trying to determine where your team stands for the rest of 2016. Do you need that extra piece to make a title push this year? Is your league out of reach? Does a team in your league have (what appears to be) and insurmountable lead? These are all factors that need to bear in mind as the August 31^st trade deadline approaches.

The first place to start is to know how your team compares to the rest of the league. As one of the twelve owners in your league, it is important to know where you stand in relation to the other eleven teams. A great place to start is to run your league through the standings dashboard. While this tool gives you a pace at which you are performing (prorated for the whole season), it does not project what will happen based on a projection system (like ZIPS or Steamer). It can still be very useful to get a general idea of where you stand relative to the rest of the league. While this standard is different among many owners, I typically try to shoot for being within 350 to 400 points of 1^st (innings adjusted) if I am going to make any moves to buy. Read the rest of this entry »

We are now two thirds of the way through the season, and only a month out from the ottoneu trade deadline, so league races have narrowed down quite a bit and every move from here on out becomes critically important. Here is the link to last month’s rankings, which also includes links to the other rankings this season if you want to look at how things have changed.

Without further ado, the FanGraphs points league team rankings (1,340 teams):
Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier this season I introduced the Prospect Scorecard as a way of better comparing and identifying the best fit prospect value for your specific fantasy league.  Today I’ll get a head start on my own 2017 prospect rankings by using the Scorecard methodology to rank the current top 50 prospects for Ottoneu. Even if you don’t play Ottoneu specifically, the 4 x 4 and FGPTS prospect rankings can serve as a good proxy for most OPS or wOBA-centric fantasy leagues, and the traditional 5 x 5 prospect rankings should cover a large portion of the rest.

Read the rest of this entry »

In this super-sized episode of OttoGraphs, Tom and Justin discuss some of the many lessons we’ve learned this season, including our thoughts about infield depth, managing injuries, and accounting for inflation in the annual auctions. Plus, we play a few rounds of “guess the player,” alternating between some recent standouts and some of 2016’s worst performers.

As a reminder, OttoGraphs is now available on iTunes! Subscribe using this link or the one below, and if you like what you hear, we’d happily accept ratings or reviews to help us reach new listeners, and potentially recruit some new Ottoneu players! Plus, don’t forget to check out the new Ottoneu Community, where discussions are starting to pick up! Feel free as always to comment with any questions or suggestions you may have about this episode or future topics. We can be reached individually on Twitter:

@OttoneuTrades

@JustinVibber

@TomHasOpinions

@Fazeorange

Lastly, special thanks to Treemen who provided our intro and outro music. If you like what you hear, please check out their other work at http://treemen.bandcamp.com/

Podcast (ottoneu-podcast): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

I’m no artist, but as we enter August let me paint a picture of what I see happening in many fantasy leagues:

“My team started fast and I was optimistic in May, but since then I’ve fallen out of the race and am now looking only towards next season.”

“My league’s title chase appeared to be close in June, but just a month or so later it now looks like it’s really over – it’s a one (maybe two) horse race.”

“Our league trade deadline is still 30 days away but no one is really buying at this point.  It makes for a tough sell.”

“A lot of the owners in my league seem like they’ve checked out for the summer.  There’s just not a lot of activity from those teams lower in the standings.”

Familiar? Of course I’m using very broad brush strokes here but you get the point: it’s rare to find a fantasy league that has a hot race involving half your league’s teams in August (and I’m not sure I’ve ever seen one in September).  But this isn’t really surprising, is it? Still, if you’ve ever won a fantasy league then you know the only thing better than winning is winning a competitive fantasy league.  We all want to win among the best, don’t we? That’s what bragging rights are all about.

My original intent for this article was to debate whether or not it’s possible to legislate competitiveness within your fantasy league, but we’ll just skip to the conclusion and say “it’s not”. This fact is probably obvious to you but in 20 years of being a fantasy commissioner I can tell you I’ve tried many times to drive competition up and down the standings each season, but in the end there’s no secret sauce.  Instead, I’ve come to the conclusion that attempting to build an active league is far better than trying to manufacture a competitive one, so today I’ll leave you with a few ideas that might help increase engagement in your league, and also ask for your feedback on what else might be working for you.

Read the rest of this entry »

FanGraphs presents on its pages a few different projection systems (Steamer/ZiPS/Depth Charts-which is a combination of the prior two) and shows preseason projections for each system, rest of season projections, and update projections (which is simply actual year to date performance plus rest of season projections). One of the more unique versions, and the one I will be looking at today, is the Steamer600 projections. These simply take the Steamer projections and assumes every player has the same playing time (600 PA/200 IP for SP/65 IP for RP). The Steamer600 Update projections (found here) incorporate the up to date Steamer RoS projections, so I like to look at them from time to time to get a sense of how Steamer is estimating true talent level regardless of playing time (due to injury, a bench role, or being in the minor leagues). I have taken those Steamer600 Update projections and applied ottoneu FGPTs scoring to find some interesting and surprising names that might be underappreciated as potential keepers.

Read the rest of this entry »

In this episode of OttoGraphs, Tom, Joe, and Trey discuss a hotly debated topic across Ottoneu leagues this summer (and seemingly every summer): veto votes. We break the issue down into three main areas: how to judge a deal you may feel is unfair; what to do if you truly think a deal deserves to be vetoed; and what steps leagues can take to improve communication and help avoid veto trouble before it begins.

As a reminder, OttoGraphs is now available on iTunes! Subscribe using this link or the one below, and if you like what you hear, we’d happily accept ratings or reviews to help us reach new listeners, and potentially recruit some new Ottoneu players! Plus, don’t forget to check out the new Ottoneu Community. A bunch of owners are already on the community discussing Ottoneu strategy, rules, and more, and we’d love to keep growing our numbers! Feel free as always to comment with any questions or suggestions you may have about this episode or future topics. We can be reached individually on Twitter:

@OttoneuTrades

@JustinVibber

@TomHasOpinions

@Fazeorange

Lastly, special thanks to Treemen who provided our intro and outro music. If you like what you hear, please check out their other work at http://treemen.bandcamp.com/

Podcast (ottoneu-podcast): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

With just over 2 months left in the season, it’s likely that your Ottoneu league has started to have some separation at the top of the standings. In reality, this has probably been happening for a while.  Typically races do not stay “close” for this long and (since Ottoneu has no playoff structure) you have probably been faced with the opportunity to start rebuilding in some aspect. A lot of advice could be given on the type of moves you should consider if you’re rebuilding – which trades you should make, players you should claim, which breakouts players are for real, etc. – but instead of commenting on that specifically, today I want talk about a tool that can help you have perspective as you plan toward 2017.

If you’ve played Ottoneu for more than a season, you are probably familiar with the Roster Organizer. If you’re new to Ottoneu, you may not have noticed its existence in season. In the offseason, the roster organizer replaces the lineups page as your offseason planning tool. However, it still can still be accessed in season from your team’s lineup page (boxed in red). The Roster Organizer can be located from your team page as well. The link is in the same place on that page.

From this link you will be able to access the Roster Organizer. Clicking the link will take you to a page nearly identical to the Lineups page but with additional slots for cuts, disabled lists, and minor leagues. Note that any player can be put into these three categories, and listing a player as a “cut” does not actually cut them from your squad. However, it reduces the player’s salary from your current cap penalty. This can be useful when trying to determine which of your current players you can build around for next year. I’d highly recommend looking at your squad and seeing where you stand. By doing this, you can get a better idea of players you want to hold on to going into next year, as well as the financial implication of keeping that player. Maybe you have a lot of players you like, but will have trouble meeting the salary cap if you keep all of them. The Roster Organizer can be helpful in realizing this – and can help you organize the players you have who may be worth trading in season. But what about players you want to target? Is there a way to plan for acquiring players? Read the rest of this entry »

Over the past 7 days, the most added player in Ottoneu is Yulieski Gurriel. Over the past 30 days, the most added player in Ottoneu is Yulieski Gurriel. That’s a lot of Gurriel auctions! Here’s quick glance at the most added players in Ottoneu over a 7 and 30 day split:

This post is not so much about Gurriel, but rather a larger Ottoneu topic. What do you do with free agent top prospects during the season? How do you bid? (In this sense, the term prospect can be broadened to mean any player added to the player pool midseason). If you don’t see Gurriel as a pertinent example, consider the likes of Kyle Lewis, Corey Ray, Nick Senzel, Lazaritos, or any other of the recent draftees or international free agents. While the same premise should hold for any of them, Gurriel is an exaggerated example.

Read the rest of this entry »