As I have mentioned in previous posts, Ottoneu is a different fantasy game. The format has it’s own scoring settings, based on linear weights, and is hosted here on Fangraphs. However the biggest area of adaption required to play the format well is an understanding of the economics surrounding the game. Hopefully this can serve as a general primer to navigating the differences between formats.

The first place I want to start is with the Ottoneu rules. These appear pretty straight forward and can be easy to understand, however, like all things, the devil is in the details. So let’s comb through some of those.

There is no FAAB budget in Ottoneu. That format does not exist within the game. However, According to the Ottoneu rules, each team has a $400 budget that can be used to acquire players at the annual auction (“draft”). The remainder of these funds can then be used to buy free agents during the year. Read the rest of this entry »

Back in early April, I wrote a Five Under 50% post in which I implored fantasy owners to invest in the likes of Nick Franklin and Dan Altavilla. I urged readers to steer clear of Marwin Gonzalez, and promised that Edwin Diaz’s job was as safe as they come.

Naturally, Franklin has a 38 wRC+, Altavilla has a 6.60 ERA, Gonzalez has a .419 wOBA, and Diaz is no longer the Mariners closer. Sorry about that.

Before you quit reading this post because, really, why should you trust me, just know that my predictions weren’t all terrible. I also forecasted success for Scott Schebler (.365 wOBA), Mark Reynolds (.419 wOBA), and Ryan Zimmerman (.469 wOBA), who have been among the best hitters in baseball this year.

Not every gamble will pay off. But when it does, it can transform a fantasy team. It’s been about a month and a half since my last Five Under 50% post, and with renewed confidence, I’m prepared to do it again now.

Below are five (actually seven; I cheated) players owned in less than 50% of Ottoneu leagues whom I think may be worth an add in most leagues. There’s no need to jealously yearn for these players later when you can win them now for pennies on the dollar.

1. Chris Taylor (2B/SS/3B; 39%) Read the rest of this entry »

As I mentioned in last month’s version of this article, I’m no scout, but I do love looking at prospect performances as a key indicator for future call ups and prospects on the rise. I’m once again using the tool I put together that pulls from MLBfarm.com  to show the top prospect hitting performances so far this season, and I’m also going to show the top pitching performances as well. Please note that only players currently in the minors and in the top ten prospects of their organization are listed.

Read the rest of this entry »

Aroldis Chapman, Zach Britton, Mark Melancon, and Jeurys Familia are on the disabled list. Edwin Diaz, Seung Hwan Oh, Kelvin Herrera, and Sam Dyson have had major difficulties. Greg Holland, Justin Wilson, Corey Knebel, and Bud Norris have been unexpected studs.

If you find yourself frustrated with the volatility of relief pitcher performance, you’re probably not alone. The names above represent just a handful of seemingly dozens of unexpected developments in the relief pitcher landscape that take place throughout the course of season and affect major league rosters and fantasy teams alike.

For example, a few weeks ago, I traded $6 Edwin Diaz and $3 Carter Capps for $9 Mitch Haniger in an Ottoneu fantasy league. Later, I flipped the $9 Haniger for a $9 Gary Sanchez. Read the rest of this entry »

Starting in July of 2015 I began posting monthly power rankings for ottoneu FanGraphs points leagues, taking up the mantle of work previously done by Nate Emmerson (who was gracious enough to share his process and python scripts with me). I’m posting this a little later than I meant to, but with April in the books, it’s time for the first edition of the 2017 power rankings for all four ottoneu scoring formats.

Read the rest of this entry »

Cody Bellinger has been superb in his call up with the Dodgers, hitting 6 home runs in 65 plate appearances. With Andrew Toles out for the season with a torn ACL, the likelihood of Bellinger staying in the big leagues has improved. However, what should reasonably be expected for the Dodgers phenom for the rest of 2017? It doesn’t take an advanced statistician to understand that the .446 wOBA he has posted thus far will regress, but the question is how far? Does Bellinger’s performance line up with what was expected? The first place I want to start is with Bellinger’s scouting report courtesy of our own Eric Longenhagen. (Trimmed it down a bit)

…That power comes from the monster hacks that Bellinger takes in all counts. He doesn’t protect or shorten up with two strikes and instead he’s constantly threatening low-flying aircraft with his incredible torque, hand speed and uppercut swing. This results in lots of airborne contact (majestic blasts as well as weak pop ups) and plenty of strikeouts… Bellinger has shown the ability to stay back on breaking balls, as well the ability to turn on plus velocity in on the hands and, while he does try to pull everything, he has solid plate coverage…

He’s also seen time in the outfield, including center, and there are scouts who think he could play all three outfield spots in a pinch…

There’s some risk here because of the swing and miss, and I expect major-league pitchers will feed Bellinger a steady diet of offspeed pitches, especially back-foot sliders, once they see the swings he takes…

Jeff Zimmerman has already dived into Bellinger’s defense in the OF, which may be better than expected. While defense isn’t really pertinent to our discussions for ottoneu/fantasy, (Bellinger has already secured OF eligibility for 2018), Jeff does good work. If you’re not reading it, you’re missing out. Read the rest of this entry »

Last Friday, we took a look at starters who have improved their projections the most in 2017. In examining this group, we wanted to look at how their plate discipline stats measured up to what they had already done. Was a starter who had increased his projection showing underlying improvements in his skills? For example, was he inducing less contact in the zone, while throwing in the zone more? These are the types of questions I like to look into. While no method is fool proof, it is useful to see where underlying improvements may or may not occur, even when you see the general movements projections are taking.

Today, I am going to go through a similar exercise with hitters.

In examining this group, I have included all hitters who have improved their Ottoneu FGPts Points per Game projection by .05 or more. Within this group, I have shown the contact rate, swinging strike rate, and (from baseball savant) xwOBA. For each of these statistics, the corresponding changes from the prior year are also included (see delta columns).  Here’s the full list: Read the rest of this entry »

One month through the season and those playing ottoneu are likely getting a clearer idea of if they are buying or selling. It’s a tricky pendulum, as no playoff structure exists. In determining to sell, owners are likely targeting players who have performed much better than expected over the first month. While there are several ways to determine who these players are, one of the most common ways is to examine projections to see which players have actually improved. Today, I want to look at a couple of pitchers who have improved their projections the most, while examining a couple underlying skill changes that may or may not exist in each of these. The degree of these changes represents my willingness or unwillingness to buy.

Read the rest of this entry »

If playing ottoneu for the first time, or even if you have played for a while, one of the areas that typically requires adaptation is that of in season auctions. While typical leagues use a FAAB, ottoneu does not, requiring you to budget $400 for all roster spots. So how do you want to spend the money you have left over after the annual auction? Do you want to be aggressive and go after players performing well through the season’s first month? What about players who have under-performed on their expectations and have been cut? Are there any injured players who have been cut in an effort to reclaim cap space?

Many in season auctions will fall into one of these three categories. A look at the current auctions in one of my leagues shows a wide range of possible motivations in nominating a player.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s a well-established fact that AT&T Park is one of the worst ballparks in the major leagues for offense. That’s why, despite putting up a 132 wRC+ over his last 1,500 or so plate appearances, Brandon Belt is not a very valuable fantasy first baseman. It’s also why Buster Posey, a catcher with a career 136 wRC+, has never really been worthy of a top-10 pick on fantasy draft day.

In recent years, however, a new and troubling trend has emerged for the Giants offense. While the league has been on an historic home run tear the last year and a half or so, the Giants have not kept up. In fact, they’ve done the opposite: they’re hitting more ground balls (and fewer fly balls) than just about any other team in baseball.

Ground balls are almost always worse than fly balls, even for a team that plays in a cavernous ballpark like the Giants. Since 2014, Giants hitters have a .245 AVG, .263 SLG, .223 wOBA, and 45 wRC+ on ground balls at home. On their fly balls at home, however, they have a .226 AVG, .598 SLG, .332 wOBA, and 119 wRC+ since 2014.

While the team batting average is actually higher on ground balls, the slugging percentage, wOBA, and wRC+ are so, so much worse. This is strong evidence to the effect that even a team that plays in an extreme pitcher’s park is not better off hitting ground balls — flies seem to be indisputably better no matter what. Read the rest of this entry »